Saturday Rockpile: 2012 Rockies Bear Similarities to 2007 Club - Including Pressure on GM, Manager
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Feb 11, 2012 8:00 AM MST
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If Rockies rebound, talent will be the reason - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
Clubhouse culture. Those two words have been intertwined with every single move that Dan O'Dowd and the Colorado Rockies have made this offseason. The issue has been debated - is it Dan O'Dowd and the front office's fault for not putting together a deep enough/talented enough roster? Were there too many cancerous players in the clubhouse? Should Jim Tracy and guys like Troy Tulowitzki/Todd Helton/Jason Giambi have been able to quell the apparently incessant moping, me-first attitudes that performed a hostile takeover on the Rockies' clubhouse?
For years, sabermetrics types and old-school types have been arguing about whether or not stuff like clutchiness and leadership matters. From what I gather from his piece, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield seemingly takes the talent-over-intangibles stance, which is generally where I sit as well. Regardless of which side of the fence you place yourself, my bold statement is that the 2012 Rockies are going to prove once and for all who's right. Guys such as Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Seth Smith - players who are all viewed as moderately-to-extremely talented on a baseball field - were jettisoned in favor of gritty/gutty (but talented in their own right) performers, and in some cases ageless wonders, such as Casey Blake, Ramon Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie, and Michael Cuddyer.
I'm not as big of an O'Dowd detractor as many on this site (or elsewhere, for that matter), but for the first time in a long time, it looks like he could be in a position of true accountability for what happens on the field. Jim Tracy might as well be sitting on a bonfire, as well. Come to think of it, the heat on the GM and manager hasn't been this intense since the beginning of the 2007 season. Might that fear of consequence motivate the much-maligned duo to get the best out of their roster?
The negative attention focused upon the team's leaders isn't the only parallel to the start of the 2007 season. That team had a couple of talented mainstays atop the rotation (Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook), as does this team (Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa). A wily ex-Oriole (Rodrigo Lopez) was brought in to help shore up the rotation after the team traded its best-ever homegrown pitcher to that point in controversial fashion (Jason Jennings). Same thing happened this year, with Guthrie being brought in after the club dealt Jimenez. And, down the stretch, the Rox counted on a couple of supremely-gifted youngsters in Jimenez and Franklin Morales to shoulder the load, as they could be in the position to do this year with guys like Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, or even Chad Bettis and/or Edwar Cabrera.
No matter the result, I truly believe that it's going to be a fun ride. Without the expectations of 2011, failure won't be as hard to handle (although for a guy like me, it'll still be mind-numbingly frustrating). However, any surprises the team could have in store performance-wise would make it all worthwhile. One thing is for sure, though: if the product does not improve on the field after all of the drastic changes made by Dan O'Dowd, we could be seeing an even more unfamiliar ball club heading into 2013 - one without their long-time GM and incumbent field manager.
One more link after the jump...
2012 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: Prospects
MLB.com has posted their top 20 prospects for each organization, and this one differs quite a bit from what guys like Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law have unveiled. For starters, Zach Putnam comes in at number 9, while Danny Winkler - who wasn't on either of those lists or our PuRPs list, checks in at number 18. Good stuff overall, though.
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The thing about 2007
Is that it wasn’t much of a season until September. They were in last place, 5.5 games out, at the end of April. Still in last, 6.5 out, at the end of May. In 4th, 8 out, at the end of June. If that happens in 2012 Tracy will already be gone and maybe DOD too. There will definitely be less pressure and fewer expectations in 2012 than 2011; but 2012 and 2007 aren’t exactly directly comparable.
Wait, what's his real name? We should make a joke out of that.
I don't think O'Dowd is on the hot seat as much this year ...
As his moves for 2012 (jettisoning guys like Iannetta & Stewart) in part factors in guys who, while perhaps not ready this year, should be ready to play full time in 2013 in Arenado & Rosario (and to a lesser extend Pomeranz/White & the rest of the young guns).
Given the Monforts’ love affair with O’Dowd, I am guessing he still has the next three years to show that the next wave can make this team a perennial contender throughout the remainder of the Cargo/Tulo deals. And frankly, I am not all that certain there are better options out there unless we can poach someone from TB. I would like to see the Rox join the sabremetric fray a bit more, but we really have very little info as to what extent they employ these ideas.
We can and will improve on 2011...
The reason we’ll be better is that the comparison is easy, and the hurdle to beating last year’s record is low. We also packed it in during the late season, sitting out our dinged up players. If we have a fighting chance to make a playoff push (and it becomes more likely if a fifth playoff spot opens up), players won’t be held out of the action, despite what O’Dowd said about giving Carlowitzki no more than 145 starts each.
IMO, if the Rox finish anywhere over .500, Dan will get a lot of the credit for the improved record, deserved or not. That’s what happens when an exec makes so many deals, and results improve. Correlation is not causation, but DOD can save his job by being an activist GM and sitting back to watch the results pour in. He has subscribed to the “evolve or die” theory of running a ballclub.
Expectations here are high!
I don’t know about the rest of you, but frankly my expectations for the Rockies this season are high.
Like most of you I was severely disappinted last seasdon about this time when I realized DOD and Company were making little effort to actually improve the Rox’ lineup and rotation. After a lot of hype, even though the team started out great, as the season progressed they got worse and worse.
A lot of people blamed Tracy for the poor showing. But the decision to let Cargo and Tulo do all the heavy lifting (Helton came through better than expected) was faulty. Bringing in below average players like Wigginton and Lopez and expecting them to shore up all the gaps was imprudent. There were symptoms of marginal performance from a number of players. But everyone just crossed their fingers and hoped for the best.
Unfortunately the team did not have the depth to respond to some injuries to a few key players. With the exception of Helton, no one was able to step up. And by the end of the season they were back to being called the Colorado Rookies.
This year management got the message and did a wholesale sweep. Marginal players and those ot achieveing expectatis were purged, and the message is being delivered to others that their performance will be monitored.
Frankly, I expect a lot more now of the new and improved Rockies than last year. They have a good mix of proven veterans and younger players. They have enough depth so that if one or two key players goes down for a few weeks, they can shoulder the burden and move on. It would be nice to see anothger high level pitcher in the rotation, but the rest of the team looks quite solid.
Maybe this year the Rox can win the Division. Either way I will expect to see them in the post season. Go Rox!
I'm with you
Well, to a point. I do think the NL West is better than many national analysts think (in particular, I think the Giants are going to be a bear this year, and there are no bad teams) so our playoff odds are aren’t great. But we’re definitely in that category of teams that “if a few things go well” we’re going to be quite good. Some teams are better than that, so that they can have a good year even without Lady Luck. Some teams are worse and won’t have a good year no matter what. We’re neither of those, but we have lots of company.
In particular, I think our lineup is going to absolutely rock, and when Arenado gets here mid-season we’ll have the best offense in the NL. I love our bullpen with all the depth we now have from the SP pool. The big question mark is the rotation, of course, but at least it’s a question mark, not a hole. If JDLR comes back strong, and we get a breakout from at least one other guy, I’d say there are plenty of teams who would go with a JDLR-Guthrie-Nicasio-Pomeranz-Chacin rotation. I mean a LOT.
So yeah, I’m very optimistic, but more to the point of the Rockpile, I’m fascinated by how this all goes. It’s sort of a win-win. If it goes well, we’ve got something great going. If it doesn’t, we lose O’Dowd and Tracy and still have the kids waiting. It’s all good!
by BostonTransplant on Feb 11, 2012 9:42 AM MST up reply actions
My question ( beside Tracy's tactical decisions) are if the Rockies development staff...
Can get so many near MLB players over the hump and into the show? Scince 2006 they haven’t shown the ability to do this. Does Dac have enough Fairy dust , time and energy for so many new faces? Can Landsford get any of the holdovers and change of sceners on track with their bats. Will the Vets really teach or will they selfishly try to hold on to the last of their careers and not pass what they know to stay competitive with the kids?
Will anybody do anything about the team wide atrocious base running?Does anybody understand that we can’t afford to waste outs and pitches by or pitchers here. Are the Rox finally understanding that you can’t have a bunch of look and stuff alike pitchers to tee off against? Is O’Dowd finally understanding the concept of balance or is this just his latest fad dejure?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
The balance thing is interesting, and I think one of our less talked about issues
We had a lot of hitters with the same approach, and a lot of pitchers with the same stuff. I think that’s changed this year.
by BostonTransplant on Feb 11, 2012 9:44 AM MST up reply actions
No bunts or stolen bases would be a godsend.
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Feb 11, 2012 1:11 PM MST up reply actions
going by fangraphs UBR,
described here, we’re losing 2 of our worst baserunners in stewart and kouzmanoff. while tulo had the worst UBR on the team last year, which is something i do believe passes the eye test, he’s been good in every other season, and should improve with more age and maturity, and better hitters behind him, as well as simple regression upwards. hopefully we’ll be able to move EY by or during spring training, which will eliminate the second worst UBR score on the team. although cuddyer and hernandez might make up the difference by themselves, as both are poor baserunners; while scutaro and blake should help mitigate the damage
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I just am really curious
about how the rotation thing will play out.
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 11, 2012 9:49 AM MST reply actions
Me too
I think it goes (until JDLR comes back)
Guthrie (gets openning day nod for veteraniness and specialness)
Chacin
Moscoso
Nicasio (Home Opener! I will be there cheering him on!)
Pomeranz
After JDLR
Chacin
Guthrie
JDLR (can’t expect perfection immediately after TJ surgery)
Nicasio
Pomeranz
I think Chatwood goes to Tulsa to get back that stuff that made him be rushed to the majors, I think Outman stays in the pen along with Rogers and White until White proves he is better than Moscoso.
I have made it a rule never to smoke more than one cigar at a time.
Mark Twain
there might not be room in the tulsa rotation for chatwood
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Who do you see there?
I’ve got Bettis, Cabrera, maybe Friedrich again (although if we get a humidor in Springs I’d rather expect him there), Gardner (but again a candidate for Springs).
With this many guys, I think we have to use our AAA team, and I’d expect White and Friedrich to be there.
by BostonTransplant on Feb 11, 2012 3:35 PM MST up reply actions
scahill and Dan Houston are out there still too
we made it easier when we moved slowey
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 11, 2012 6:24 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I like your rotation
These are the guys who look like they are most ready. Especially would like to se NIcasio pitch the first game at Coors this year.
JFK's Quote of the Day:
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"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
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JFK
Maybe Scoots can do this for our outfield?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
You mean Jaime Moyer?
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Trades left to do
I think we need to move some of these young arms, now that we have acquired them all.
Outman and Moscoso are (IMO) bullpen arms who might be seen as starters by some other desperate team. Can we get much in a trade as far as prospects prior to the beginning of the season for them?
I guess (and I know its been said before) I see a relative logjam occurring in the rotation if we keep Guthrie and JDLR around after this season. White, Pomz, Nicasio, Chacin are arms I hope to be long term contributors here. If we could keep JDLR, Chacin, Pomz, Nicasio, White as a rotation for the next few years, we have no room for Chatwood, Outman, Moscoso. Again, its been said before, not a bad problem to have, but looking at our PuRps list, I don’t see much real talent coming up in the 1b/2b positions. Can we trade these young arms now (or would it be better to wait for the deadline) for decent prospects in those positions? Is Rutledge close enough to be considered 2b next year?
Lots of questions, and I know people have discussed this before. I just had to voice my thoughts.
I have made it a rule never to smoke more than one cigar at a time.
Mark Twain
Hopefully one of Rutledge , Field , R. Herrera will pan out at 2b.
Herrera sounds more like a 3b as he grows and fills out though. I am not as sanguin that we can create an “instant 1b”. We are trending defensively downward. Just because someone can’t make it at another position doesn’t mean they’ll play better at 1b. Just like the little things keep you from getting hurt and being valueable on the DP at 2b; the same things apply at 1b. There are many subtlies to the footwork that are easier to see than to do. The difference is in the PO’s and in not getting hurt.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I can understand wanting to jettison off what seems to be an excess at the SP position
However, you may have seen a few Minor League Ball and Fangraphs articles posted over the last few days analyzing the incredibly low success rates of even elite pitching prospects. Odds are pretty good, for example, that one of Pomeranz and White will be a disappointment. From my perspective, O’Dowd has established two “waves” of talent, the latter to restock the attrition that will certainly occur among the first wave.
So you’ve got Guthrie and Chacin as relatively stable members of the rotation, and as I see it:
Wave 1: Pomeranz, White, Nicasio, Outman, Moscoso (Esmil Rogers to bullpen or traded)
Wave 2: Chatwood (definitely needs more minor league seasoning), Bettis, Tyler Anderson, Friedrich, Cabrera, Gardner
Guys Down the Line to Dream On: Matzek, Tago
The reality is, unless we trade one of our top 3 prospects in Pom, White, or Bettis or even an established ML starter (frankly, Chacin would be the only one that even makes any sense right now) we’re not going to get an impact prospect at 1B/2B. As foagie mentioned, there is some hope at 2B — Scutaro will likely perform more than adequately for 2012, after which the organization will be hoping that Rutledge or Field can run with the job. If not, Trevor Story is a favorite of talent evaluators further down the line. 1B is a lot more concerning: there’s been talk about converting Matthes or Parker to 1B, but personally I think that we should target an advanced 1B college bat like Victor Roache who can at least match Helton’s declining production almost immediately.
by steakman on Feb 11, 2012 12:47 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd also add wrt the 2B problem
There’s almost no such thing as a 2B prospect. Most of the good ones are converted something-elses, usually SS. We have the best SS in the game who’s still young, and at least two very solid SS prospects a few years away. Plus Rutledge, who is probably no more than a year away.
I’d be much more worried about the lack of a 1B replacement for Helton than anything else. Plus catcher if Rosario doesn’t pan out.
by BostonTransplant on Feb 11, 2012 12:59 PM MST up reply actions
Don't forget Rosell Herrera, I've heard so many good things about him.
Also, 100% agreed and rec’d.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 11, 2012 5:41 PM MST up reply actions
i don't think we keep guthrie
especially if he has a good year.
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He is from around here and there's a (possible) glut of SP's next off-season
I’d say it’s 50/50, unless he goes off and has a ridiculous year.
by BostonTransplant on Feb 11, 2012 3:36 PM MST up reply actions
this.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 11, 2012 5:42 PM MST up reply actions
There's an old adage I've heard along these lines...
Whenever you think you have too much pitching, all of a sudden you’ll find you don’t have enough.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
I think I baseball team is like a wolf pack
There needs to be certain distinct personalities to make it successful.
plus, you don't want to turn your back on it
Lest you may wind up in a body bag.
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Feb 11, 2012 11:16 AM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
Are you saying Tulo was a one-man wolf pack last year?
(What is it with me and references to The Hangover lately? That’s like two in a week.)
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
its on right now on tbs, too
cosmic
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 11, 2012 6:25 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Ooooooo.....Australian championship on MLBN now
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 11, 2012 11:43 AM MST via mobile reply actions
Watched it live last night
Very proud of the Melbourne boys. Played with and against many of them, and even coached a few. Still amazes me to see them on tv!
by cam r on Feb 11, 2012 3:23 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Well it looks like Rafeal Rojas will have an
interview with Chacin tomorrow regarding his weight issue, and the comments by DOD.
niceee.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 11, 2012 5:42 PM MST up reply actions
that's the game plan
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 11, 2012 7:05 PM MST up reply actions
eff yeah....
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20 Game All-Star Series
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Section 119
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"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 11, 2012 1:10 PM MST reply actions
freakin' awesome.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 11, 2012 5:42 PM MST up reply actions
In 95 when we opened Coors...
those were MY seats.
"Surgeons have determined that doing the wave will, yes, will cause tears to the suprapinatus muscle and the infraspinatus muscle from the throwing of an individual's arms rapidly into the air. In addition, any children doing the wave will be sold to the circus. Do NOT do the wave in the ballpark. Doing the wave is safe at pro football games and Miley Cyrus concerts.
-scoreboard announcement at Ranger Ballpark in Arlington via Baseball Nation.
I flew over SR FATS today.
Made me even more ready for baseball.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
by glaucophane on Feb 11, 2012 2:37 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions
/jealous
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by Charlie77 on Feb 11, 2012 6:13 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
from what?
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
by Charlie77 on Feb 11, 2012 6:13 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Not sure how I feel about this
I never am with pop stars.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 11, 2012 7:05 PM MST up reply actions
It makes me sad
but mostly for the incredible amount of wasted potential. Not just with her death, but the last 15 years of her life…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Feb 11, 2012 7:09 PM MST up reply actions
there is a lot to be sad about with her story
the wasted potential, the early exit, the down spiral, the fact that AP had a 1500 word story on her life and death ready to publish for someone that’s 48yo
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 11, 2012 7:17 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
That last sentence kind of says it all...
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Feb 11, 2012 7:19 PM MST up reply actions
The AP usually has pre made obituaries for everyone.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 11, 2012 7:24 PM MST up reply actions
You think they've written one for Beiber yet?
Lindsey Lohan would be a younger person they might have filed away…
"Surgeons have determined that doing the wave will, yes, will cause tears to the suprapinatus muscle and the infraspinatus muscle from the throwing of an individual's arms rapidly into the air. In addition, any children doing the wave will be sold to the circus. Do NOT do the wave in the ballpark. Doing the wave is safe at pro football games and Miley Cyrus concerts.
-scoreboard announcement at Ranger Ballpark in Arlington via Baseball Nation.
Most likely they have them for anyone well known.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 11, 2012 8:01 PM MST up reply actions
I has a sad as well
God, what a voice. Such a loss. When I was (much) younger, her music was the stuff of dreams for a gay guy trying to get a grip on who/what he was. RIP, Whitney.
Waiting for spring.
Yeah that's pretty shocking
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
VH-1 is showing old-school Whitney videos.
I remember being really into I Wanna Dance with Somebody in elementary school. Gah. Such a shame that Whitney didn’t last. It’s making me sad.
To brighten up your evening, have a gif.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 11, 2012 8:04 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
Oh dear.
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 11, 2012 8:17 PM MST up reply actions
aminals
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 11, 2012 9:50 PM MST up reply actions
This is now green. This is awesome.
8 today, 7 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
by Roxman4ever on Feb 11, 2012 10:02 PM MST up reply actions
More sidewalk art
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
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