Thursday Rockpile: Rockies rotation hoping for strength in numbers
by Rox Girl on Feb 2, 2012 9:08 AM MST
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PrintRockies co-owner and CEO Dick Monfort gave an interview with CBS4 on Monday, and in it, as well as talking about the building the Rockies revenue to increase the team payroll, he expressed some hope
"We've got numbers. You'd rather have maybe that ace," Monfort said. "I think Chacin can take a step forward, (Drew) Pomeranz has got a big upside, (Juan) Nicasio is going to come back and be alright, Jason Hammel; we've got a lot of good arms and now we've just got to find two or three or four guys who will really take a step forward."
Mark Kiszla, err.. my alleged alter-ego Russ Oates, has somehow come to the conclusion that this equates to hoping for a miracle on Monfort's part:
Two? Three? Four? Take a step forward? Seems like that's going to take a miracle. Might as well try to get Tim Tebow to play for the Rockies while these big steps forward attempt to emerge.
Which is disappointing in its hyperbole and inaccuracy regarding Monfort's position. Just as your odds of winning prizes would eventually tilt from slim to favorable if you bought enough bingo cards at the local parlor, Monfort and the Rockies see their work on the rotation as an exercise in building their odds through diversification. How far fetched of an idea is this? If the team was looking for four number ones, then sure, it's not going to happen more than two or three times out of a million, but Monfort is not saying that the Rockies need three or four starters to become aces, he wants three or four to improve to a point where the rotation itself on the whole becomes an asset rather than the 2011 it was last season.
How out of the question would that be to find up to four starting pitchers that can go from the level they pitched at in 2011, to a more effective state with their skills? To answer, I'm actually going to try and break down the Rockies starters into sub-categories in order of the likelihood that a step forward could occur.
First of all, the Rockies have several MLB ready starters on the "right" side of the development curve, those at ages where we would expect them to still be capable of improvement and at ages where it seems likely that this would happen.
Young pitchers with the tools to be better than they were (6):
- Tyler Chatwood 22
- Alex White 22
- Drew Pomeranz 22
- Jhoulys Chacin 23
- Juan Nicasio 24
- Esmil Rogers 25
Sometimes young pitchers will reach their effective MLB peaks early, see Clayton Kershaw, who while still young isn't likely to get any better than what he already is (the good news for the Dodgers is that he's likely to be about as good for a long time.) In the case of the above six Rockies starters, the same can't be said. All six have clear room for growth. This bodes well right off the bat for Monfort's "two or three or four" taking a step forward standard.
Another class of starting pitcher that's often capable of taking a step forward would be slightly more mature LHP's with room to grow in control/command, which the Rockies happen to have one of,
Left handed pitchers with BB rates that could be improved:
- Josh Outman 27
A bit less likely to take a step forward than the players with MLB experience would be the prodigious minor league phenom that takes little or no time to adjust to the majors on entry. In this category, the Rockies have a handful of possible rotation parts:
True Prospects:
- Christian Friedrich 24
- Edwar Cabrera 24
- Chad Bettis 23
- Tyler Matzek 21
And then there's the somewhat more mythical "learned a cutter" or "learned how to pitch not throw" or "in the best shape of my life" category, which the Rockies also have a pair of:
Learned a cutter:
Learned how to pitch, not throw:
- Jason Hammel 29
Finally, the Rockies have one more potential lurching forward step up their sleeve:
Reanimated corpse of Jamie Moyer:
- Jamie Moyer 49
Would it really be that miraculous to expect two significant steps forward out of this group? No, far from it. I would think that expecting two pitchers to improve significantly enough to "really take a step forward" should be seen as a strong likelihood. Three? Still not close to miraculous. Given that the majority of Rockies starters fall in the most likely category of starters to improve, the odds I'll pull out of my behind are still a bit better than 50/50. Four? Okay, here is where I think we might veer into "unlikely" from likely, but unlikely is still a far cry from Dick Monfort praying for a miracle.
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This would be hilarious:
Chacin
Pomeranz
Chatwood
White
Moyer
GET OF MY LAWN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Carlos Gonzalez has an extraordinary tendency to amplify light through stimulated emission of radiation in frequent bursts.
Shoulder-to-Shoulder for life!
I love how Monfort says
“Jason Hammel;”
There are, apparently, no words.
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That was funny.
“I will make specific predictions about how these pitches will get better. Also, Jason Hammel. That is all.”
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 9:35 AM MST up reply actions
I took it to mean that Jason Hammel is what he is
I didn’t think it was anything bad. We already know what we have with him.
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Me too.
The phrasing of it was just funny
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 2:06 PM MST up reply actions
Correct
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
It's like he forgot what he was saying..
in the middle of his pitch for Jason Hammel.
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Tyler Chatwood will most outperform expectations
Or Alex White if, by expectations, you mean the “hang on he’s RUBBISH” response on PR at the end of last season.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
He'll definitely be good if you buy the xFIP argument that HR rates regress to a natural mean.
I’ve never been convinced of that. Always seemed kind of like wishful thinking to me.
I think he’ll improve a little. I’m just not sure his injury/time off didn’t highlight a weakness of his, rather than just being rust or something.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
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Oh, and can we have an OT, RG?
Thank you! In return, please read this (start from the bottom and then go onto page 1) as it’s lovely.
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Hey Purple Row
Rox Girl heard you like OT, so I put OT on your OT so you can OT while you OT.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 9:34 AM MST up reply actions
Too early in the morning for me to comprehend that statement.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
baseball is the only thing on my mind right now. ST is going to be torture, just having to wait until the season starts.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
I've spent hours
Laughing until I cry on know your meme and memebase.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 9:50 AM MST up reply actions
It really wouldn't bring it up for me
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Agreed.
I waste too much time there.
I'M SORRY I WAS EVER MAD AT YOU, ROCKIES! COME BACK TO ME! I LOVE YOU!!
by prettyinpurple on Feb 2, 2012 12:36 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I am showing it to literary agents at the moment
I think it deserves a life beyond the internet. Thank you for taking a look!
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
My 4 to take a step forward
Chatwood. Pomerantz, White, and Hammel.
I’d imagine 10 of those taking steps forward but some will not be steps out of the ordinary.
If I were to narrow it to a list of four that would really surprise outside pundits,
Pomeranz
Nicasio
Outman
and
Hammel
I have I have a lot of confidence in Hammel for some reason. Chacin and White would be next.
Me too, re Hammel.
Hope he does well this year.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Feb 2, 2012 9:40 AM MST up reply actions
Me three re Hammel
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
With all the older guys being picked up and young pitchers on this team.
Could DOD be playing some Moneyball? I watched it for this 1st time last night. LOVE THIS MOVIE!. It just seems that this could be partially going on in Denver. Not that I have a problem with it. I just want it to work and work well.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
It's similar to that. O'Dowd's brought in a lot of players on the periphery of other contending teams' radars.
Whether too old or young, but the sum construction could wind up working very well together. It could also fail spectacularly, there’s a wide range of possibilities for this team in 2012.
It's fun though, isn't it
And 2 months ago I wasn’t sure I’d be saying that.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
If it works, awesome. If not, they should find different players.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
my God
it’s so simple
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 2, 2012 2:50 PM MST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
I understand the frustration about waiting and hoping for a leap forward
and some of these collections of young talent go 2002 Cubs with Prior lost to injury, Woods lost endurance to injury, and Zambrano turning in years of solidly above average pitching before being lost to mental illness.
But some of these young collections of talent become the 89 Braves where Smoltz was 23 had been acquired in a trade and had posted 67 ERA+ with 5.3 K/9 to 4.6 BB/9 in 1988 joined a 23 yo Tom Glavine who had posted an 80 ERA+ with a 3.9K/9 and a 2.9BB/9 in 1988 Glavine had posted a 79 ERA+ in 1987 with a 3.6k/9 and 5.6BB/9. Nothing in either of those two’s performance in 87 or 88 said they would make a big step forward in 89 other than that they were well liked by Scouts just like White, Pomeranz and Bettis are in our group, just like Chatwood was last year.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Quick which of these 21-23yo pitchers is HOF Bound?
A. Age 21-23 69 innings 44G 5GS 4.54ERA 86ERA+ 9.1H/9 4.2BB/9 5.2K/9
B. Age 21 64 innings 12G 12GS 5.48ERA 67ERA+ 10.4H/9 4.2BB/9 5.2K/9
C. Age 20-21 186 innings 36G 32GS 5.59ERA 76ERA+ 10.8H/9 4.1BB/9 5.8K/9
D. Age 21-22 163 Innings 38G 20GS 3.75ERA 131ERA+ 9.1H/9 4.5BB/9 5.2K/9
E. Age 21-23 342 Innings 68G 53GS 3.52ERA 129ERA+ 7.6H/9 4.2BB/9 7.9K/9
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Just looking at it would say E but
Somehow I’m thinking that it isn’t/ So I will say C
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
They Are!
A. Curt Schilling
B. John Schmoltz
C. Greg Maddux
D. Roy Halladay
E. Jhoulys Chacin
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine, and Andy Pettite also would have proved my point
but I am less sure they are HOF bouns
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
glavine is, for sure
300 winz yo. brown should be, but he got less than 5% on the blyleven-alomar ballot, so he’s gone. pettitte should not be
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Yeah I think Glavine gets in(and should)
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
That makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
I have a signed ball of his on my dresser :-)
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 10:31 AM MST up reply actions
This makes me :-(
Because my Chacin baseball has Ubaldo on it too
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 2, 2012 10:49 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
:-(
I try to keep all my balls separate unless I’m going for a team ball (2007 would be sick), for that exact reason.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 10:51 AM MST up reply actions
I had to read it twice...
I try to keep my balls separate
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by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 2:15 PM MST up reply actions
Not looking at your stats
but whichever is Kershaw
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Doc Gooden and Mark Prior agree
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
We all know that Moyer is old. Period. But.........
What if he has an excellent year after rehabbing from TJ surgery? The man doesn’t win that many games and have such a “prolonged” career if he wasn’t decent. Will Moyer take a spot in the rotation, I think he makes it on the OD roster.
Chacin
Pomeranz
Nicasio
Hammel
Moyer
When DLR returns, I think it will be Hammel that goes to the pen.
Plus, when Moyer isn’t pitching. Him and Giambi can talk about what they will do when they get a broken hip.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
If Moyer is in the rotation
it certainly would generate a lot of media interest in the Rockies, if only for the historic significance of his long career and his age.
"We made too many wrong mistakes" - Yogi Berra
by purpleJerseygirl on Feb 2, 2012 10:03 AM MST up reply actions
I would actually love to see him in there.
Had he has a hell of a changeup.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
oops.
HEARD he had a hell of a changeup
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Maybe Tommy John himself is available?
As long as we’re considering Moyer.
Dude with a Rockies lovin' 6-year-old
Really? Who would've thought this woudl ever happen
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
This is one of the comments.
Problem with him, as great of player as he is….. is that he misses WAY too many games.. “The mysterious injury plaque”
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Yes, the demotivational plaque.
When the pitcher of the year and rookie of the year are both relievers, that points to a disappointing season.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Feb 2, 2012 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
It is easy and right to be upset about 2011
Our Ace was hurt, inneffective then traded
Jose Lopez didn’t bounce back
Jonny Herrera teased us in April that he was the next Weiss/Counsell
JDLR had TJ
Chacin started brilliantly then started BBing everything in sight
Ian Stewart fell apart completely
Dex Fowler got sent down in June with a .238 BA and a 26.7K%
Wiggington played a lot of games
Iannetta hit eighth
Alphonzo hit cleanup
Matzek fell apart
Friedrich fell apart
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Their is a lot to be hopeful about from 2011
Cargo showed that 2010 was no BABIP driven fluke
Tulo dropped his K% and continued to be the best all around player in baseball(Kemp, Ellesbury could argue)
Our top hitting prospect got a lot of love for a big step forward
Tim Wheeler flaws aside had a monster season for AA CF coming off a .249/.341/.384 in A+
Bettis was impressive
Matzek looked good after returning, certainly enough to dream on
Juan Nicasio was excellent
Brothers was excellent
Fowler was in the top 5 in XBH after changing his stance
Tulo will never be a Yankee
We added three 2011 top 100 pitching prospects in Pomeranz, White & Chatwood
Rutledge, Mathes, Herrera and Story had great seasons
All in all I am excited to see if the Old Dudes can drag us into the playoffs, Pittsburgh Lumber Company style… but if not the 2013-18 Rockies are looking great
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Feb 2, 2012 10:22 AM MST up reply actions 6 recs
Yay for This!
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
Sounds like baseball to me
good and bad it all works out the same
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
(coughs) Well, Tulo could be a Yankee someday...
Considering he’ll “only” be 36 when his deal expires
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Ok, Von Doom is a way better nickname than what I liked. So cool to be excited about a pass rush in Denver again!
I want to say how awesome a particular Rockies player is and that he will be the MVP, but the last time I mentioned it in my sig he went out with an injury, so, GO PLAYER WHO IS SO AWESOME!
I agree that it's likely we have at least 2, maybe 3, possibly even 4 pitchers in this batch with the capacity to "take a step forward."
I’m just not very confident that the Rockies will be able to identify them.
And I don’t mean that as a criticism of the Rockies coaches/evaluators. What I’m concered about is that the size of the crowd itself will prevent any one of them from having sufficient time and space to prove that he’s one of the two – or three, or four – in that “step up” category.
There’s lots of pitches/innings available in spring training, of course, but it’s still just spring training, and it’s still just a month and a half of bullpens, simulations, and 3-inning spurts in live action. If we had a “normal” farm system, the mystery “two” (or “three” or “four”), even if they were mistakenly not choosen out of spring training, could demonstrate in AAA that they were the true “stepper upers.” But Colorado Springs is very nearly worthless in terms of providing a accurate reflection of this. And even if it wasn’t worthless, and even if the Rockies were willing to put top-level prospects in the Springs, there’s still a bit of a AAA/AA roster cruch going on here.
Again, two (or three or four) “step up” guys might exist in that pool, but because of the sheer size of the pool, and the dynamics invovled (made worse by the Springs), I’m just not sure that the team is in a position to benefit by thier presence. That’s what I hate about this “cast a wide net” approach.
I hope I’m wrong.
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
They did well with Hammels and Delarosa
I just realized today that if JDLR had been honest about when he hurt himself, Felipe Paulino would have moved in to his rotation spot.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
They were contending and DIPS aside he wasn't producing, who took his spot Brothers?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
No, I don't mean their decision to get rid of Paulino.
He was a disaster out of the ’pen.
But when we acquired him, it was to give him a shot of the 5th starter role while Cook was hurt. And then he started one game in ST, gave up a couple of rune, and O’Dowd announces that he’s moving to the bullpen. Even though Paulino had been shuffled back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation multiple times before, and had always had worse numbers as a reliever then as a starter.
Then he bombs as a reliever, gets cut, and goes on to be fairly successful starting for the Royals.
I just don’t understand why he didn’t get more of a chance as a rotation candidate. It’s not like Rogers was lighting the world on fire in ST.
I think their recent success with Belisle may have colored their judgement
Also if they had even begun to imagine that Ubaldo, JDLR, Hammel, Nicasio and Rogers would all be either hurt or inneffective they would have thought differently. I just feel like we drained out luck nexus in getting Cargo and getting into the 2009 playoffs. 2011 was us just recharging the luck batteries, Paulino was our anti-Vogelsong.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Paulino is the main example I think of with respect to Gasstation1's comment.
To a lesser extent, Rogers (and even Mortenson et al) had a similar experience. You can’t tell whether a pitcher is going to be successful in a role in just one or two starts, especially if he’s transitioning from the bullpen or minors. At the same time, other guys are stuck in less than optimal roles and can’t demonstrate their own worth.
Thanks for writing this
because it saved me from writing precisely the same comments. I think this is absolutely the biggest issue with the current approach. Hopefully we’ll get lucky with ST evaluations, because otherwise its going to be a pretty interesting operation to try to patch the rotation.
I was also about to post the same thing.
I’ve said it several times before: I think depth is a good thing, but I think the Rockies have reached the point where the marginal value of additional pitching “prospects” is approximately zero. The opportunity cost involved with giving one pitcher a chance to prove himself means another won’t get the same chance.
True but Chacin and Ubaldo pitched well from the pen
If we are going to be a competive team when we are paying 40 million a year to Tulo and Cargo we are going to need a lot of cost controlled contributions
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Then we use the extra arms as trade chips, like with Slowey and Mortensen. We find the arms that stick, and the rest are currency.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Yes, I think this is the best strategy at this point.
Again, I don’t think it’s bad to have depth; it’s just that the Rockies aren’t going to be able to extract the maximum value from their depth (without trading some of it).
That said I want a potential Impact bat at #10 in this draft
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I agree that young arms are good currency.
And trading the excess is a great strategy. But it’s the other part of your statement that I find problematic. “Find the arms that stick” is, in and of itself, an impercise excercise made even more complex by the sheer volume of people for whom the staff must find reps.
RoxnSox09’s reference to Paulino is a great case-in-point. I think it’s not only possible, but perhaps likely, that the same scenario plays out again this year: we’re forced to ditch a guy permaturely – probably via pennies-on-the-dollar trade rather than outright cut – who ends up blosoming somewhere else after being given adequate space and time in another organization. That’s why I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we see a trade involving our young pitcher “currency” BEFORE spring training even starts.
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
One flaw I see in this ...
… is if the arms that don’t stick will really offer all that much in the way of currency, as they will have not lived up to (optimistic) expectations again.
It occurs to me that perhaps the reason you and I agree so completely on this
is because we are viewing the situation through the prism of economic theory. That was my major in college and, while I certainly don’t think of myself as an economist and don’t apply it one bit on the job, I do find that economic theory colors much of how I see the world. Sometimes – most the time, probably – that isn’t a good thing. But I really do think it’s relevent and significant in this case.
Again, I hope I’m wrong. Because the Rockies are way cooler than economic theory, and the Rockies certainly add more value to my life.
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
Yes, I think that's true
except that I’m an engineer so my understanding of economics is much less than yours. Nevertheless, I found economics interesting in college and even more so now. I do try to apply the economics knowledge I have to the real world, and I find that baseball is a very good application. I really like the concept of WAR, even if the implementations leave something to be desired.
I know what you mean about getting caught up in the rational/theoretical side of things. Baseball has also given me an interest in probability (which is way more complicated than I’d previously thought), and as I learn more I find it harder to simply enjoy baseball.
If a pitcher arrives in Springs and pitches lights out-which may not happen ever.
He is the one that they should bring to Denver. If he can pitch there, should do well in the bigs.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Matt Reynolds
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
1 out of how many?
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Jeff Francis
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Though Las Vegas, Salt Lake, Albuquerque and Tucson don't do any favors
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 2, 2012 12:17 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, but
even if the Rox do eventually pull out of the Springs, they’re quite likely to maintain a AAA team in the PCL,. They just have to focus on AAA performance relative to the rest of the PCL, not normal baseball numbers. If they had a good SABR/stats guy on staff, they could probably figure out the mathematical adjustments needed for proper evaluation. The idea that top prospects just shouldn’t be evaluated at AAA because of the Springs & PCL parks has got to be ditched. And the non-purchase of a humidor for the Springs is simply stupid.
Jhoulys Chacin, 2.16 ERA in 11 career AAA starts
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 2, 2012 12:15 PM MST up reply actions
Love that kid
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
The successful, often dominant major league is a very rare thing. A "black swan," even.
I think DOD is exposing himself to as many of these potential black swans as he can to increase the likelihood that he finds one or two.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
The book and theory, not the movie.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
From Jeff Sullivan at Baseball Nation
Examination of why players play through injury. Spotlight on DLR.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Feb 2, 2012 10:29 AM MST reply actions
#ACQUIREALLTHEYOUNGARMZ
Interesting (and relevant) take from Jonah Keri on the fate of Pitching Prospects (including … TINSTAAPP) over at Grantland:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7525727/edwin-jackson-just-latest-example-future-ace-never-materialized
Saw that since 08 Jackson has been a very good pitcher
kind of like Hochevar I doubt he ever shakes those expectations
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
John Lannan is apparently being aggressively shopped by the Nationals
Why do I get the feeling he is on the verge of being traded to the Rockies.
I would be fine by that
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Probably because hes 28 an under and a young armz
supposedly salary releif so they can make a run at Jackson or Oswalt?
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 2, 2012 10:51 AM MST up reply actions
We can pay Jacson for one year.... Right?
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 2, 2012 11:17 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
*Jackson
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 2, 2012 11:17 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
He won't come here on a 1 year deal
probably not on a 20 year deal either.
by mkorpal on Feb 2, 2012 11:18 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
He’s a decent pitcher who has thrown that magical 200 innings in a season.
I’d love a Lannan acquisition.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Only if replaced Hammel in the rotation
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
career 4.69 SIERA
career 1.39 K/BB
career 112 FIP-
career 108 xFIP-
barf
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Young pitchers have trouble stringing together an entire season of quality starts
More important than the identification of THE five starters out of this identified set of 13 possible starters is that we have a decent chance of having five starters who are winning starting at the same time.
At 49, Moyer knows what it takes. But will a 49 year old body last a full season. Well it doesn’t have to.
Then there are Outman, Moscoso and Hammel. Let’s call them the fish or cut bait starters. (Though I want Outman to make it just for the name alone.) They have to demonstrate an ability to take the ball and deliver. I don’t know their options status, but they are likely to have few remaining. If they don’t deliver, they will make way for the young guys.
There are ten young guns identified above. You start the best ones in April. If someone’s mechanics fall apart, you just rotate in the next guy from Colorado Springs. He goes down and works on his stuff.
The Rockies don’t need five starters next season, they need five starters from the fourteen available to be able to start each and every month. Even if all the fish or cut bait starters flame out, because of the remaining options on the young guys, the Rockies have the flexibility to juggle their starters to have the best five at the major league level all year.
Yes it would be better if five guys grabbed the available spots and delivered thirty starts each. But ten guys delivering fifteen quality starts each will do.
by Larry Walker on Feb 2, 2012 11:15 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
I read Musial Chairs here
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
D'Backs Zips are out
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_arizona_diamondbacks
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
That's a pretty strong looking team
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 2, 2012 11:37 AM MST up reply actions
I'm not sure I buy Upton's 128 OPS+ vs. Tulo's 126 OPS+.
The only thing I see in Upton’s favor is that he’s younger and therefore more likely to see additional improvement. However, he’s been in the league almost as long as Tulo, so I’m not sure how much difference that would make. His power, BABIP, contact and swing rates, pitch recognition etc. all trail Tulo’s numbers (the power is actually pretty similar). Of course, Bill James sees them as pretty similar also.
Anyone care to bet me on Cargo's 119 OPS+ vs Kubels 117 OPS+?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Everybody hates the Rockies
It’s a commonly accepted fact here.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
by MattBerger on Feb 2, 2012 11:58 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
PLus, AZ don't have the humidor like they should have.
16 today, 15 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
Yep. I'd take the over on Montero, and the under on Drew and Kubel, though.
I think Drew’s ankle injury and the lingering impact that it’s going to have is the type of problem that projection systems just won’t see, while Kubel just strikes me as a Brad Hawpe, swift decline type.
Or they're confident they can trade him somewhere.
We can do much worse than getting Lannan for $5 mil. Don’t really see it though
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 2, 2012 12:02 PM MST up reply actions
The "E" has always stood for
Erratic.
At times (usually 4 – 5 innings during a game) he looks like a No. 1 starter.
At times he looks like he belongs in AAA. Overall, he’s a decent no. 3 or no. 4 starter.
Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly a solid, dependable part of a multiyear rotation.
He is their 3-4 fourth starter though
And he and Gio should keep their Bullpen fresh
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Rotation for Year*** to come, hes signing a 1 year deal
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 2, 2012 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
Still that is Strasburg(literally the most exciting pitcher I have ever seen)
Strasburg has been worth 3.7WAR!!! in 92 innings
J Zim 3.4 WAR in 161IP first year back from TJ
EJAX 3.8 WAR in 199IP
GioG 3.5 WAR in 212IP
and a whole host of good 5th Starter options
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Wang could be a 3rd for some teams
That’s a pretty good 5th option
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 2, 2012 1:27 PM MST up reply actions
Wang, Detwiler, Lannan if they keep him
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
For some, Wang is a pretty good first option.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
See? I knew I should have just written, Leg?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Are we really talking about Wang being right?
On a more serious note…
are we reallyu talking about Wang?
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 2, 2012 1:48 PM MST up reply actions
Pretty broad range, but ...
According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, Edwin Jackson’s one-year deal with the Nationals is believed to be worth between $8-12 million.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com hears that it’s in the $10 million range. While Jackson didn’t get the lucrative multi-year contract he was looking for, that’s still a pretty good chunk of change this late in the offseason. The 28-year-old right-hander went 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.44 WHIP between the White Sox and Cardinals last season and should give a boost to an improved Nationals’ rotation. Jackson was a Type B free agent this offseason, so the Cardinals will receive a supplemental first-round pick now that he has signed elsewhere.
Sounds about right.
I think he gives them about 2.5 WAR next year.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 2, 2012 12:18 PM MST up reply actions
His last three years are 3.6, 3.8, 3.8 why do you see him falling off?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Where'd you get those numbers from?
On BB-Ref I’m looking at 4.3, 1.7, 3.1
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 2, 2012 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
Mine were fWAR
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I like rWAR for rewarding pitcher outcomes but prefer fWAR Predictively
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
My favorite thing about Edwin Jackson
Was the year that he nearly led the league in Pitcher Abuse Points, all because of one start.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 2, 2012 12:18 PM MST up reply actions
wasn't that a no-hitter though?
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
149 is what I found
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I'm proud that no one posted something like
“One Year! We should have signed him! DOD SUX!”
Good job, team.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 2, 2012 2:08 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It would have been nice but it would have been 12-14 million at best at worst 13-15
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I wish we would have
but certainly never seemed realistic.
So, I guess you (I?)
get the point that we aren’t supposed to take anything I write in that Mile High Buzz seriously (with a few minor exceptions)?
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
You two (one?) should get your stories straight.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
But then it would be too obvious.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
FIFY
But then it would be too (won?) obvious.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
It’s like watching one person argue with themselve(s).
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
by Charlie77 on Feb 2, 2012 7:43 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Russ/Rox has some nice legs,
but a really long neck.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
Niemann had an arb hearing...
Anyone think that he’s next on #ACUIREALLTHEARMS, the new show on the PR?
Subject change… I was thinking… if money wasn’t an issue, wouldn’t EY Jr. to the Nats with other shiny things for Lannan be feasible?
Doubt the payroll can handle $5 million more.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 2, 2012 1:36 PM MST up reply actions
maybe if we all pledged to buy 1,000,000 extra beers at games this year
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 2, 2012 1:49 PM MST up reply actions
lannan is really bad
like wade davis territory
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 2, 2012 2:09 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
So bad that he's beyond that into Doug Davis territory
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 2, 2012 4:21 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I honestly don’t see the draw of Lannan. I guess GB%, but his LD% is pretty high as well.
The value of WAR may be set at a certain dollar amount, but you should be able to get a 1 WAR player at a discount, generally speaking, because those players are more available than a 3 or 4 WAR player. There’s no real discount here.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Hardball Talk ranks the rotations for 2012
No great surprise here, but we do fare better once ballparks are considered. Whether we put any credence into an article seemingly based solely on ERA is another matter:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/02/ranking-the-rotations-2012-edition/
Obviously
the only two ways to analyze pitching are to look at ERA and do “subjective rankings”. Totally credible.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 4:21 PM MST up reply actions
I don’t think it’s based on ERA, I think he has some methodology behind it but just lists the ERA.
I also like how the Rockies’ starters are projected to throw the 2nd least amount of innings in the majors, which makes sense. It’s also a good reminder that 2012 can have a lot of awesome or a lot of terrible…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
There is something that excites me about
Esmil.
Resident Lesbian Bunblogger - PurpleRow
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
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because hes awesome and we have’nt realized it yet
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 2, 2012 2:27 PM MST up reply actions
Interesting sweet spot article
About making the playoffs the season after having a losing record. Our good old Rockies make the list twice :-D Tomorrow there’ll be a follow-up piece about teams that were bad in 2011 that have a shot in 2012… it’ll be interesting to see if we make that list too.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 2, 2012 4:33 PM MST reply actions
So it turns out that the Verducci Effect probably isn't real.
This makes me less worried about Pomeranz and more excited to see him in the rotation from Day 1.
JFK's Quote of the Day:
“The sport to which I owe so much has undergone profound changes, but it’s still baseball. Kids still imitate their heroes on playgrounds. Fans still ruin expensive suits going after foul balls that cost five dollars. Hitting streaks still make the network news and hot dogs still taste better at the ballpark than at home.” ~Duke Snider
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I'm loving Duke's quotes
Maria will surely agree:
hot dogs still taste better at the ballpark than at home
Still true, even tho’ a hot dog tastes pretty good to me anywhere I am.
Waiting for spring.
I am enjoying them a lot too
especially as the season gets closer he’s reminding me why I like baseball so much
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
you're right
it was even better than yesterday’s
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 2, 2012 11:48 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
By the way
I love the picture for this post. It reminds me that we’ve almost made it and how much I’m going to miss going to ST this year (I guess I don’t love it for that part).
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
This is a cool idea
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/ticketing/dynamic.jsp
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Such a no-brainer that I'm surprised more teams aren't doing it and haven't been doing it
But no-one ever accused MLB or its owners of being ahead of the times.
Die-hard Rockies fan since seven years after Jamie Moyer's MLB debut.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg
I think many or even most teams do it based on the matchup, day of the week, etc.
But that seems to take it quite a bit farther.
It looks like it's actively managed
I wonder if it would be possible to have a fully automated ticketing system based purely on supply and demand? Not sayng it’d be a good thing necessarily but presumably it’s a mathematical possibility.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
It's
something airlines do all the time
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 4, 2012 12:06 PM MST up reply actions
Brilliant.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 3, 2012 12:31 AM MST up reply actions
ZOMG! I saw a baseball play on ESPN's plays of the day.
I was excited and realize it’s just around the corner!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
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