Wednesday Rockpile: Jeremy Guthrie is Just What the Doctor Ordered
by Jeff Aberle on Feb 8, 2012 8:00 AM MST
in Rockpile
Email
PrintOkay, that's the end of this off-season's dealing, right? As Andrew 2 noted yesterday, the turnover on Colorado's roster from 2011 to 2012 has been extremely high, with deals big and small throughout the last few months. However, I had been hesitant to say that the Rockies had improved the talent level of their roster to a level above the 2011 team until the Jeremy Guthrie trade went through on Monday.
Yes, the Marco Scutaro acquisition clearly improved the black hole at 2nd base and the signings of Michael Cuddyer and Casey Blake were certainly helpful to the line-up, but the fact was that Colorado had a bunch of question marks about who was going to be pitching solid innings for them in 2012. In fact, I saw this as Colorado's biggest deficiency coming into the off-season.
That's why the trade for Guthrie, a proven workhorse starter (who by most accounts also fits into the "intangibles" category Dan O'Dowd has coveted recently) that has been durable in a tough work environment is very important toward ensuring a higher win floor for Colorado in 2012. The Guthrie/Hammel/Lindstrom trade, which you can read more about here and here if you haven't already, is an interesting transaction for a number of reasons.
First, it's become very apparent that O'Dowd is building a "bridge" team in 2012, full of competent veterans on one year deals, and Guthrie is a prime example of this. The Rockies may very well want to keep Guthrie past this year, but I won't be holding my breath. Given the status of Colorado's pitching prospects, I am very much in favor of this strategy by O'Dowd.
Second, the Rockies are altering their salary allocation from the bullpen towards the rotation -- as Matt Lindstrom's $3.6million will be replaced with a low salary player that should be able to replace most if not all of his production (Zach Putnam, perhaps?) while Hammel's $4.75 million will be almost doubled by Guthrie's $8.2 million. In almost every case, devoting more money to a player that is going to impact the game more is a good decision (provided that the player is good).
Finally, Hammel and Guthrie are valued at a completely different rate by the two prominent sources of WAR -- Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. According to B-Ref, Guthrie has been worth over 4 wins three times in the last five years and 8.9 rWAR over the last 3 years. By that account, Rockies fans should be expecting a 3 win pitcher for the price of $8.2 million, a pretty good deal. Then again, FanGraphs seesGuthrie's contributions much differently, rating his best season at 2.6 fWAR and only 5.8 fWAR in the last three years. So FanGraphs expects about a 2 win campaign for Guthrie.
Jason Hammel is viewed in the opposite light. FanGraphs shows him as twice being worth at least 3.9 wins to Colorado and 8.8 fWAR in the last three years while B-Ref says that Hammel's peak was last year as a 2 win pitcher and that his three year production was 5.5 fWAR. The difference is primarily due to the fact that Hammel has historically underperformed his xFIP (upon which fWAR is based) by a significant margin while Guthrie has outperformed it. I've traditionally favored rWAR when evaluating pitcher value, so I'm pleased as punch that Guthrie grades out so impressively in the metric.
It should be noted that either way it is fairly likely that Guthrie will at the least be a league average pitcher in 2012, and there's considerable value in having a league average pitcher solidly in your rotation for an entire season. It would be nice to have some other similar guys around him -- and Colorado is gambling that a couple of their myriad starting options do just that in 2012--but a lot of that depends on the performance of pitchers like Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, and Jorge De La Rosa. If those guys prove to be solid rotation pieces and one of the kids like Drew Pomeranz and Alex White joins them, Colorado may have a respectable starting rotation late in the year.
Colorado is certainly older than they were in 2011, but they've clearly upgraded their line-up while accumulating a number of young pitching options with the potential to be rotation contributors in 2012. And now, with the Guthrie trade, they may have solidified the top of their rotation as well. It'll still probably be among the worst in the NL West in 2012, but the offense's improvement will help mitigate that significantly.
Fun Fact: The Rockies should tell Guthrie that it's May every month. In his career, Guthrie has thrown 202.2 innings in the month, and has an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.10 with 130 Ks and 51 BBs. In his next best month (June), he threw 163.2 innings and had an ERA of 4.29, a WHIP of 1.24, and a 105/65 K/BB ratio.
Los Links!
Grant Brisbee has two Rockies articles up, one at Baseball Nation and one in his native McCovey Chronicles. In the former he writes artfully about how difficult Dan O'Dowd's job as Rockies GM really is, while in the latter he reviews the Rockies' off-season. Both are enjoyable if not necessarily informative reads.
Troy Tulowitzki gets some love from Sweetspot's David Shoenfield as a guy in the conversation as the best player in baseball. I won't go that far yet, but I will say that Tulo might have the highest ceiling of any position player in baseball given his defensive utility.
357 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Keith Law Ranks the Farm Systems
Behind the paywall:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7547640/san-diego-padres-best-farm-system-baseball-mlb
Rox at #13 … this seems like a complimentary view (albeit a bit backhanded):
13. Colorado Rockies
This is an underrated system, maybe even here by me. I like systems in which the prospects in the No. 8-12 range are just as interesting (if not as high-upside or high-probability) as the prospects in the No. 1-4 range, and the Rockies’ lack of a complex-league team can make some of their youngest prospects look less advanced than they are when they jump right to the Pioneer League.
Are you sure you don't have dyslexia?
I’m pretty sure Keith Law made a point of rating the Rockies at 31 in everything.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 8, 2012 10:55 AM MST up reply actions
Only because they lost Darvish
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I understand all the KLaw hate on here ...
… as he does seem to have it in for Rockies’ management. But I do think it is disingenuine to continue to posit that he has some sort of bias against Rockies’ players. And just for the record, I do understand your comment is meant to be funny.
Let’s take a for instance: Law is pretty damned certain that the Rox messed up Matzek’s delivery, and that, in turn is the cause for his drop in velocity and subsequent loss of command/confidence. On it’s face this does seem to ring true, as once Matzek was allowed to rediscover his prior motion with his HS pitching coach, he showed considerable improvement. Whether it will take hold for the long haul remains to be seen.
But if this is the case, doesn’t it piss you off that the Rockies drafted a kid with huge upside and (I assume) full knowledge of his throwing motion and paid him near $4million only to try to change it and set him back two years? It pisses me off to no end.
So that is one example of where KLaw believes the Rockies screwed the pooch. I tend to agree with him on this one. He does have a general distaste it seems for many of the Rockies’ moves, but I can’t say I don’t agree with him on many of his points.
He is paid to have an opinion and he gives it. But I don’t think he should be written off (as he often is), as his reputation in the industry is actually quite good.
When I don’t like what someone says, the first thing I do is ask myself “Is it because they are right?”
Oh I agree
I think we tend to view a lot of things through the purple lenses, I was just making a joke – I think 13 is actually a very fair view of our system. We have a couple really solid prospects, but not too much depth.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 8, 2012 11:18 AM MST up reply actions
He obviously researches a lot more than most of us
He is paid to give his opinion, which he is not afraid to do
He has to know a fair amount of baseball
He usually has a reason for some of the comments he makes, he does not create them out of thin air for no reason to piss people off
As fans we get offended, and usually are biased
However, I believe that he is extremely biased towards the prospect side of baseball and stays true to prospects more than he does accomplished major leaguers, because that is what he follows and researches and works for every day, which i believe is where is is Keith fLawed
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:05 PM MST up reply actions
I don't quite follow ...
because his main [emphasis on “main”] focus is on prospects/scouting he shouldn’t give his opinion on anything else?
He can give his opinion on weather or not Peyton Manning is going to play again
But because we know that his focus is on the prospect side of baseball, we can weigh his opinion accordingly.
It’s fine for you to say, “Hey guys, aren’t you being a little hard on Keith Law”, but it is out of line for you to say that we shouldn’t scrutinize him.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
It was more that it was being implied in your question.
To put it simply, your question says to me that Law can give his opinion on whatever he wants, but we shouldn’t have a harsh opinion of him.
If that isn’t what you are getting at, than I’m mistaken.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
I think everyone's opinion is fair game to be scrutinized ...
It’s the seeming unending cry that Law is biased against the Rockies and should therefore be discounted that I take issue with.
It's an unending cry because
if he’s not biased against the Rockies, he just has an incredibly low opinion of the team, their ownership (implied), and management (explicit). Either way, it’s a good reason to rip on the guy.
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 8, 2012 12:55 PM MST up reply actions
he def has some sort of beef with tracy/dod
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
He kind of hates on everyone he is a snarky SOB
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
OT:
Anybody noticed how much Jay Bilas hates Andy Katz? its hillarious if you ever notice it
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:58 PM MST up reply actions
I can understand that.
That being said, I see the Kieth Law banter is just more of the running jokes we have going on here similar to LOLCOORZ and #aquirealltheyoungarms
I have seen more times than not that once the Kieth Law hates us stuff dies down, if he has given us a fair opinion, most recognize it as being a fair opinion.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
no those were just my thoughts on him, he can give his opinion on something, but i believe he is often flawed because he tends to think prospects are the best thing since a cheese slicer and i believe he falls in love with certain prospects and will take that love to his grave
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:52 PM MST up reply actions
Well ... prospecting is just that ...
All “prospect gurus” and scouts have their share of misses. And I hear you in that you feel Law steps out of his comfort zone when he opines on MLB’ers, but I think he is far more well-rounded than you are giving credit for. I don’t know exactly what his role was with the Jays but he has knowledge of the inner workings of a MLB club front office that few if any of us can claim. And since he has experience actually scouting players, I would hazard a guess that his opinions on MLB’ers is a whole lot more valid than a multitude of baseball writers out there.
I have this sneaking suspicion that
YOU ARE KEITH LAW
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 8, 2012 1:19 PM MST up reply actions
If that were the case ...
I have a sneaking suspicion you’d be getting a bit more snark in these posts.
I have a sneaking suspicion that you, sir, are not really purple nor a troll.
I think you both are
Keith Law and that he is in fact a Purple Troll
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
look how wrong you are!
I don’t exist.
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I can live with that
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
i agreed with what you said
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
Dodgers over Rockies makes little sense to me
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 11:22 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
i was thinking the same, but they are LA so automatic Skill boost of +6
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:03 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah ... I don't see that either.
The Dodgers have a few pretty solid (but not really elite) arms and a fair ammount of depth in pitching in general, but they have zero in the way of bats. I take our system over theirs any day.
LOLwhat
really?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
by Muzia on Feb 8, 2012 12:14 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
the dodgers still have a farm system?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 8, 2012 12:59 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Guthrie gives hope
Frankly I was pretty bummed the Rox had not landed a strong starter to anchor the rotation. Guthrie does not have the pedigtree of an ace, but he perfoms consistently, which signiifcant. As Jeff comments above, if the rest of the fellows who end up in the rotation can perform well, the Rox have a shot at an outstanding season.
I suppose this means the Rox will no longer be trying to land Oswalt. Looks like too many other teams are courting him. But the Rox stil have a bit of dough left in the budget to complement what they currently have, in some way.
by Real Perspective on Feb 8, 2012 10:24 AM MST reply actions
How much do they have left
under their projected 2012 budget?
"When I began playing the game, baseball was about as gentlemanly as a kick in the crotch." - Ty Cobb
They'll be under 2011's OD payroll.
I only see them adding more in-season if fans continue to come to the ballpark and the team wins.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 11:19 AM MST up reply actions
Oswalt is acting like an assclown to me. He is acting like he is Roy Halladay in deciding where he wants to go. Why is he asking for so much money especially 2 weeks away from spring training? Play baseball for the love of it man, you are old and on the downside of youre career with back problems AND have tons of $$$ already…. not worth $9mil to any team. I have slowly come to dislike Oswalt more and more. Anyways, i am just ready for the seasons to start. Love the Guthrie trade and will unquestionably stabilize our rotation this season. go Rox!
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
by avsfanatic33 on Feb 8, 2012 10:40 AM MST up reply actions
If you made such uninformed assumptions about MY motives I'd bop you on the nose.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
by biondino on Feb 8, 2012 10:47 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Whenever you type in the subject
it bolds it automatically……
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Sorry ill rephrase: Glad you put that whole sentence in the subject line so it bolds automatically because SDcat09 is a smartass; now I understand.
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
by avsfanatic33 on Feb 9, 2012 10:48 AM MST up reply actions
To be fair ...
… from the reports I have read it is more important to Oswalt to be near his ranch/home than the overall $$ amount.
IMO Oswalt anywhere in the $6-8 million range is a bargain. I don’t believe the Rox have that kind of room at this point but would love to see him on a 1yr deal for that amount.
Considering the money paid to numerous starting pitchers who've never done anything
Why should Roy Oswalt even get out of bed for less than $8 or $9 million, or pitch somewhere that he doesn’t want to be? I hope he finds a deal that suits him but if he retires – good for him.
by Northsider1964 on Feb 8, 2012 11:19 AM MST up reply actions
Cause he doesnt need the money. He should take $3mil to pitch where he wants to be not create havoc to be where he wants to be
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
Helton doesn't need what the Rockies still owe him
So why doesn’t he just play for free, or for a couple of Cracker Barrel gift cards? Mariano Rivera doesn’t need the money, but he held out last year for $30 mil over two years. Did you post anything about them being assclowns, or did you save these pearls of wisdom exclusively for Oswalt?
by Northsider1964 on Feb 9, 2012 7:30 AM MST up reply actions
Big difference between $3 mil and playing for free isnt there? Glad fellow Rockies fans can be such douchebags; I like the character
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
by avsfanatic33 on Feb 9, 2012 10:49 AM MST up reply actions
Well sorry, keyboard tough guy
But when you post something so incredibly stupid, you will tend to get that type of response.
by Northsider1964 on Feb 9, 2012 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
I’m not the one comparing $3mil to $0 am I? What is so incredibly stupid… We are all fans here who all have different opinions. Stop acting like one spontaneous comment is worth ripping someone down to being “incredibly stupid”. Im happy thats what makes you happy in life. Go suck off Matt Ryan and get out of Colorado
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
by avsfanatic33 on Feb 9, 2012 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
Yes we are all fans with differing opinions
And when several of us posted opinions that differed from yours, you went into preschooler mode and started pissing your pants and calling people names. That’s what keyboard tough guys tend to do, so it came as no big surprise.
by Northsider1964 on Feb 9, 2012 11:44 AM MST up reply actions
As I recall you went to preschool mode first as you said “incredibly stupid” before I called anyone a name side from Oswalt. Its not very hard to look back and check the posts before you start saying shit. Seriously though, no Atlanta fans allowed.
Playoffs...playoffs.....playoffs....playoffs!?
You should quit while you're behind:
Posted by keyboard tough guy at 9:49 AM:
Glad fellow Rockies fans can be such douchebags;
Posted by keyboard tough guy at 9:48 AM:
because SDcat09 is a smartass
My post was at 10:14 AM. So apparently it is pretty hard to look back and check the posts!
by Northsider1964 on Feb 9, 2012 5:46 PM MST up reply actions
Oswalt's parents are elderly
and have had their share of troubles (tornadoes) in recent years.
I don’t blame him for wanting to pick a geographically-desirable place to pitch.
If he was in it for just the money, he’d have already signed with the Red Sox.
borderline hall of famers
can’t get no respect
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 8, 2012 1:01 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Rockies and Oswalt were never a match
hes not coming to Denver unless in the other dugout, never was and never will
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 12:00 PM MST up reply actions
More love for the Rockies ... NOT.
Dave Cameron (everybody’s favorite curmudgeon) ranks the ten worst moves of the offseason:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-10-worst-transactions-of-the-winter/
We made the list [insert Bronx Cheer here]:
#4 – Rockies Sign Michael Cuddyer For 3/31M
Cuddyer gets a lot of bonus points in the game for his versatility and his leadership. Unfortunately, he just plays a lot of positions poorly, and his character doesn’t make up for the fact that the Rockies spent $30 million to tread water in the outfield. Cuddyer is a marginal upgrade at best over Seth Smith, who was shipped out for some magic beans after losing his job when Cuddyer was signed to play right field. He’s an okay but not great hitter who will be 33 when the season begins, and he’s never shown much value with the glove. The Rockies needed to make some real improvements this winter, but instead, their primary acquisition was just a more expensive, older version of what they already had. They could have simply kept Smith, gotten a real platoon partner for him, and then spent the remaining money upgrading third base or the rotation. As it is, they’ve locked themselves into a mediocre player headed into his decline phase.
I was not a huge fan of the Cuddyer signing at the time [ducks and looks around furtively for RIRF], and I still stand by that, but Cameron does seem to ignore that Blake is a stopgap for all-world uber-prospect Arenado. However, he also argues that the money spent on Cuddyer would have been better allocated to the rotation, and this I do agree with.
To be honest, I agree with Cameron's sentiment.
I think he underrates the return we got for Smith and the insurance that Cuddyer will provide for Helton in a year or two (assuming Wheeler’s ready to take over by then), but I can’t argue with his main thrust. I would have preferred to sign Gomes/Andruw Jones to platoon with Smith and go after a better pitcher as well.
Though it’s hard to evaluate the effect of intangibles and locker room culture, I suppose.
What pitcher though?
because there really wasn’t anybody we could sign in the FA market that would come here.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 11:27 AM MST up reply actions
I was thinking more along the lines of a trade+extension.
For example, when the Sox were showing willingness to move John Danks, I was hoping that we’d get in the hunt on the condition that we could extend him after trading for him.
It’s a fair point that there wasn’t anybody else available in free agency, though.
The Sox had sky-high demands for him, and rightfully so.
I can see why O’Dowd didn’t go down that path. I’m sure they asked about him and Floyd, but rumors were the price was too high.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 11:32 AM MST up reply actions
The pitchers we have may be better than anybody that we would trade for
as early as this year, and certainly in 2013. I just don’t see why we would want to block them or trade some of them away for a pitcher that another team doesn’t want.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:34 AM MST up reply actions
I mean, it'd be nice to have Albert Pujols too,
but you don’t want Albert Pujols at 1B for $30 million a year after he turns 37.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:36 AM MST up reply actions
Are the pitchers we have really better than Danks?
I think Pomeranz probably has a ceiling that is higher than Danks, but with only a handful of MLB starts I don’t think we can just assume he’ll hit his ceiling. I suppose some people would put White in that category too, but to me he’s got a long way to go to show he’s healthy and can reach his potential. Danks has been a pretty good pitcher for about four years now.
If by really good you mean slightly above average,
he has been really good. His ERA+ over the last three years is 112. Chacin and JDLR have both outperformed that.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:47 AM MST up reply actions
Also, his decline isn't promising.
ERA+
2009: 124
2010: 115
2011: 97
He’s should be a candidate to regress up, but how high? 110? 112?
Not worth the price, nor blocking guys who should beat that in 2013.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:52 AM MST up reply actions
and yet
SIERA
2009: 4.39
2010: 4.08
2011: 3.81
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Also tRA
(from statcorner):
2009: 4.17
2010: 3.76
2011: 3.90
(For reference, Chacin had a 4.00 tRA last year.)
His BABIP last year was 20 points higher than his career average. Luck was definitely a factor.
I’m not saying that I would have traded for him, but he’s not somebody whose team doesn’t want him, and he’s better than most of our prospects except for perhaps two. I’d take JDLR over Danks in the short term, but age and injury favor Danks in the long term.
His BABIP last year was 20 points higher than his career average. Luck was definitely a factor.
this is it exactly. the white sox overall defense was about average, but their infield was very good, led by alexei ramirez’s 11.9 UZR
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
So,
since JDLR and Chacin are better than Danks, and two of our prospects are better than him, we would have been paying $10 million per year for multiple years and giving up prospects for our #5 pitcher?
No thanks.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
seasons above 3 WAR:
Danks: 3, next highest is 2.9
JDLR: 1, next is 2.4
chacin: 1, next is 2.5
right now, they’re probably not better than danks
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Really?
Chacin as pitched two seasons.
JDLR has only pitcher over 130 innings once.
Using the number of seasons above 3 WAR is kind of a silly stat.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Chacin as pitched two seasons.
JDLR has only pitcher over 130 innings once.
this is in and of itself enough to give danks a huge edge, as he’s thrown 139 or more innings ever season since 2006 (counting the minors)
otherwise, would you prefer seasons with a FIP under 4? xFIP under 4? SIERA under 4? tERA under 4? ERA under 4? FIP- under 100? xFIP- under 100?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
A huge edge in what?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
in value and desirability going forward
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Yes.
Danks isn’t replacing them, so that really wasn’t the argument.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Are the pitchers we have really better than Danks?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
That's not what I was responding to.
If by really good you mean slightly above average,
he has been really good. His ERA+ over the last three years is 112. Chacin and JDLR have both outperformed that.
This was my response pointing out that Danks isn’t much better than what we have.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Last year Chacin produced a nice ERA
despite a K/BB ratio of 1.72 (well below average). Part of this was due to a very lucky .261 BABIP. When you consider that ground ball pitchers tend to give up more hits, it becomes more obvious that his BABIP is unsustainable. I like Chacin and want him to succeed, but unless he can reduce the walk rate he’s going to have more struggles. I’d rather have Danks at this point.
Right.
But I’m not talking about replacing Chacin with Danks. I’m talking about spending for Danks when we already have Chacin, De La Rosa, Pomeranz, etc.
Is he worth the cost when he is not going to ever be an ace, and might not even be the #2 or #3 on this staff in two years.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Perhaps there was a miscommunication:
I’m not advocating that we meet the White Sox trade demands. But you did say
since JDLR and Chacin are better than Danks, and two of our prospects are better than him
and that is what I disagreed with.
I was assuming that is what you meant by this.
I’m not saying that I would have traded for him, but he’s not somebody whose team doesn’t want him, and he’s better than most of our prospects except for perhaps two.
I was responding to that.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
So do you disagree with that statement?
That he’s better than most of our prospects (and current starters for that matter)?
No.
He is at the moment. My point is that he won’t be in two years if the plan works. There is no reason to break the plan in my mind.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
he won’t be in two years
the only starter (or starter prospect) we have that should be better in two years, and still on the team, than what danks probably will be is pomeranz. i could see chacin being about as good. but i doubt anyone could pass him more than margin of error’s worth
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I'm pretty sure that
the FO expects Chacin and Pomeranz to be better with Nicasio and JDLR at about the same.
I don’t think I disagree with them at the moment. But there’s a lot of speculation looking two years out.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
DLR will be gone after 2013
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I'm talking about 2013.
And I don’t think he’ll be gone.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
i figured that "in two years" meant two seasons from now, ie 2012 and 2013
and we’d have to resign him at that point, which would mean prospects have busted and we didn’t snag anyone good next year….
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Why do you think this?
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
well, his contract is weird
i forgot about the part where if he player option is exercised, which i think it will be, then it generates a club option for 2014. i dunno, i guess i just hope we’ve moved on to better and younger pitchers by 2014
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
he would be Wandy's current age
in 2014
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
This is what I was trying to get at.
IF Pomeranz reaches his ceiling, he’s better than Danks. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll probably be in the same vicinity of value. White seems to have the prospect legacy, but I have my doubts.
Is he worth the cost when he is not going to ever be an ace, and might not even be the #2 or #3 on this staff in two years.
he’s making $14.25mil annually through 2016, and the lowest WAR value he’s produced in a season was 2.9, so probably, yeah
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
and
he’s only making $8m this year, so there’s a very large potential for surplus value
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Two things with this:
1) We don’t know if he would have taken that money here.
2) But if we can have the same production for 1/4 of that price, it isn;t worth it. That is what I’m suggesting.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
he was only due $8 mil this year before the extension too
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Yes.
But the idea that started all this was:
I was thinking more along the lines of a trade+extension.
I was assuming there too.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
I've spent the last 12 hours overseeing a drilling operation
but from the looks of things, there has been more drilling of this argument into the ground than anything I’ve done.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 5:54 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Geological reports
showed we might hit something at about 15,000 feet…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
no way baby
we’re going straight to the moon
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
good lord, you read all of this on the app?
that must have been a chore
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I skipped most of it once my head started spinning
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 6:03 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I'm a bit skeptical of SIERA,
particularly with Rockies pitchers for comparisons. The fact still remains that Danks is a slightly above average pitcher. Nothing more.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
SIERA is the one advanced pitching metric to not be skeptical
it routinely outperforms all others as well as projection systems
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
about which to not be skeptical*
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Not really.
Just because it outperforms crap doesn’t make it gold, it just makes it better than crap. There are still plenty of holes in it.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
But you're quoting ERA+ like it's scripture.
Luck can significantly affect ERA+. I don’t think it’s a horrible stat, but in this case I think it’s definitely missing a lot.
and the league's performance level
you can throw 200 innings of 1.00 ERA, but if everyone else does, congrats, you get a 100 ERA+
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
But that's what I was saying.
If by really good you mean slightly above average
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
but there's zero predictive value to it
or if not zero, then close to zero
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I wasn't predicting with that statement.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
RoxnSox said:
Danks has been a pretty good pitcher for about four years now.
I responded with that.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Also, his decline isn’t promising.
ERA+
2009: 124
2010: 115
2011: 97
He’s should be a candidate to regress up, but how high? 110? 112?
Not worth the price, nor blocking guys who should beat that in 2013.
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Yes.
This is a trend statement. Do you think it is incorrect in some way?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
you're trying to predict with ERA+
a statistic with no predictive value
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Answer the question.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
it is improper to try and predict a pitcher’s future performance based of ERA+.
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Exactly.
You’re talking about a trend, which implies prediction. Use SIERA for that.
You can tell from ERA+ that he has gone down against the average year-over-year. You can then draw a conclusion as how he might fair against the average in the next year.
Your inability to address this makes me wonder about the validity of most of what you are saying.
I like to do my own thinking. I tend not to rely on what other people tell me. I like to find things out for myself.
Are you willing to try to do the same?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
You're totally missing the point.
And now you’ve resorted to insults. I expected more.
The point is that ERA+ fluctuates with BABIP (which is in turn heavily influenced by random processes, or luck) and other things like defense. Some of the other metrics attempt to account for this. In many cases, ERA+ is a good tool but as I’ve discussed, Danks had poor luck last year which affected his ERA.
There was no insult there at all.
I asked for someone to tell me whether or not my idea that Danks has been performing worse and worse year-over-year against the average and thus, he is likely to improve against the average, but not substantially was incorrect.
I did not get an answer to that. Instead, I was being told that the stat I was looking at was not the right stat. Twice. This led me to the conclusion that I’m confronting more than whether or not John Danks is a slightly above average pitcher in this conversation. I would like to get back to that.
Even the poor luck isn’t going to get him back to over 115. Thus, he would also have had a decline in 2011 from 2010. The trend is still there. I still think the point is valid and should be addressed whether or not you like the stat.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
The reason the stat was questioned
is that ERA+ shows a trend (degrading performance) which isn’t true. FIP, xFIP, tRA, SIERA, all show improvement from 2008-2010, with 2011 being slightly below 2010.
As for luck bringing him back to 115, I think it would, or at least close. His tRA was 113 last year.
If his performance stays the same,
but the run environment drops, he has not stayed the same.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
that's not a reflection on him, though
that’s a reflection on the run environment
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
No.
If the batters get worse, and Danks stays the same, then he has actually gotten worse.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
but if batters get worse, how will he stay the same?
wouldn’t he benefit from that as well?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He should.
But if his stats stayed the same, then he didn’t get better.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
If the batters get worse
and Danks stays the same, his outcomes should be better. If the batters get worse and his outcomes stay the same, Danks probably got worse.
Unless you’re using some metric that’s already accounting for the change in the batters, of course.
Danks is only 26. I guess I would be a little more alarmed by one metric seeming to possibly show he was in decline if he was 36. But at 26, and other metrics actually improving, I’m more likely to look for other explanations for the apparent decline in one metric.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
Yes. This.
And with ERA+, that other explanation is the high BABIP.
The issue is that no one else is willing to say
whether he got worse or not.
That’s what I would really like to hear.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
xFIP- over that time
99, 96, 94.
FIP- over that time
101, 86, 91.
so yes, he was approximately as good
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Good.
I got something then.
Unfortunately, those FIP- ratings are pretty bad too.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
This really brings me back to the point
that he’s a slightly above average pitcher.
Although the detour was nice.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Because
to get back to the beginning, the point of this was that Dave Cameron’s take that we should have spent the money on pitching misses the fact that there was no pitcher worth the money or money and prospects who was available and attainable.
I think there’s also doubt over whether Danks was ever actually attainable or if that was just a negotiating tactic.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
SIERA and tRA+ show the same.
And now I really do have to go.
True, but with some of the stats
like FIP, I’m not sure that change would show up. Because FIP is tuned with parameters that don’t change, I’m not sure how that would relate to a changing run environment.
I mistakenly said tRA above
when I meant tRA+, which is a relative metric.
i honestly don't see what you're getting at
the year to year correlation of ERA- with next year’s ERA- is 0.36, which is not statistically meaningful, and you shouldn’t use it to try and predict future performance. i can’t find anything about ERA+ at the moment, but i’m fairly sure the results would be about the same."
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/1/9/2690405/what-starting-pitcher-metrics-correlate-year-to-year
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
What I am getting at is that Danks has been performing worse and worse against the average each year. That is all.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
But only if you look at one particular stat
which is heavily influenced by BABIP, which is in turn largely a function of random processes (luck). If you look at the stats that try to compensate for luck, he hasn’t been getting worse.
So,
what you are saying is that Danks was actually as good in 2011 as he was in 2010 and 2009?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
xFIP- over that time
99, 96, 94.
FIP- over that time
101, 86, 91.
so yes, he was approximately as good
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
No, I think 2011 was probably a little worse.
His K/BB improved, but he gave up more HRs and induced fewer GBs. However, the difference wasn’t huge and probably is within the variation all players have from year to year. Tulo’s wRC+ decreased last year, but that doesn’t mean we think he’s entered his decline phase.
which are reflected better in FIP- and xFIP- than ERA+
because ERA+ is a reflection of him, his defense, his park, his umpires, the weather, and his luck, rather than the things that pitchers have control over
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
If you look beyond simple ERA, you see why Danks is good.
His K/BB rate is greater than 3. His fastball is only a couple MPH below JDLR, who is known for having good velocity for a lefty. His zone% is above average, as is his swinging strike% and O-swing%. A big part of his high ERA last year was a BABIP well above his career average. If you regressed his BABIP even halfway to his average, you’d find his ERA drop to an above average level.
I didn’t say that he wasn’t good. He is good. He just isn’t good enough to be acquired for an Ubaldo-type trade with a seven-digit multi-year contract to boot.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Whoa. That was never alleged.
I said I didn’t think I’d trade for him in the current situation, but that he’s a good pitcher and better than most, if not all, of our options.
I didn't say that you alleged it.
All I said is that he is a slightly above average pitcher. This is better than most of our options at the moment because most of our pitchers are average or below., but it might not be that way in two years.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
do they have wifi in this room?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
That's what you're worried about
in this scenario?
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
gonna be tough to keep arguing without the internet
i don’t know what you think we’ll be doing in this room…
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Watching TV?
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Oh thanks for that image
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I am quoting it because it’s defines a pitcher against an average and I was saying that he is slightly above average.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
OPS+
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
wRC+ is better
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
it defines a pitcher, his ballpark, defense, umpires, and luck against an average
FIP- and xFIP- define just a pitcher against average
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Exactly
Just because the BCS is better than the Bowl Alliance doesn’t make the BCS good, it just makes it less terrible than the Bowl Alliance.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
there may be holes in SIERA
but it’s far and away the best pitcher talent statistic, and that’s been tested and proven over and over
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Simply untrue.
SIERA is one of the best systems out there for predicting future ERA. tRA is basically the pitching equivalent of wOBA, which most people consider the best measure of offensive production. Also, FIP and xFIP both show that Danks is well above average. He had a poor ERA (and ERA+) last year, but that was largely due to bad luck (high BABIP, while tRA and FIP were similar to the previous year).
JDLR might be better than Danks when he’s healthy, but he has only put together one full season as a good starter. Chacin has yet to show he’s better than Danks.
He also had only a slightly above average ERA+ in 2010 and was below average in 2007. Was this also bad luck?
2007 was his rookie year. 2010? 115 isn’t so bad I guess?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
115 is indeed pretty good.
Most seasons, that would be around top 30 starters in baseball.
I don't think that's correct.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
in 2011
exactly 30 qualified starters had an ERA+ better than 115
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
With nonqualifiers,
there are 211.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
does that include Jim Miller?
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 5:03 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
a great reason to only look at those who qualified
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
led by brad peacock's 12 innings of 531 ERA+
we’re talking about starters, so there’s literally no reason to look at pitchers that didn’t throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Exactly.
I’ll take a top 30 starter any day. He might not be a true ace, but so far no Rockies pitcher could be called that.
But qualifiers does not include all starters.
That was my point there. 162 Innings is a tall bar.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
adding non-qaulifiers adds almost exclusively relievers
or rookies
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
And Josh Johnson, and Johnny Cueto, and…
You are right that it adds MOSTLY relievers and rookies, but I think it probably shows my point that 115 ERA+ is not in the top 30 starters, which was my point.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
but 115 ERA+ along with the innings totals
is what’s key. 60 innings of josh johnson is all well and good, but i’d rather have 170 innings of john danks
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Sure.
But that wasn’t the point.
115 is indeed pretty good. Most seasons, that would be around top 30 starters in baseball.
Me:
I don’t think that’s correct.
You might be right, but I don;t really have an opinion on Josh Johnson right now.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
right, but danks qualified
34 qualified starters had 115 ERA+ or higher in 2010, 37 in 2009, 42 in 2008, 36 in 2007. so it seems like roxsox was completely correct
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
starters ≠ qualified starters
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
qualified starters are all that's worth looking at in this scenario
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
also don't forget
ERA+ is league adjusted, and the league ERA in the AL has gone 4.45 → 4.14 → 4.08
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I'm not sure what the relevance of this comment is.
His ERA+ is relative to a league average pitcher. He was worse than that pitcher last year. He was slightly better the year before that.
The fact that the ERA went up or down year-to-year has little to do with how he relates to the league from year-to-year. I would define that relation as being slightly above average.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
that was just more of a general comment rather than a point
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Oh. Ok.
I thought you were using that to say that Danks’ 97 ERA+ was better than it seemed.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Which pitcher?
And would you want that pitcher blocking the prospects that we have.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:27 AM MST up reply actions
But there isn't anyone who would improve our rotation to give that money to.
Just like there wasn’t a 3B.
It’s nice to make these statements, but you need to be specific about exactly HOW that money was going to spent on a 3B or SP. If not, you’re just blowing smoke.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:26 AM MST up reply actions
Ok
Oswalt, Wang (because sinkerballers can do really well here), Kuroda, Chris Young, and in my fantasy world, CJ Wilson
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 8, 2012 11:35 AM MST up reply actions
You would have rather had us sign
a 37 year-old pitcher to a multi-year deal paying more than $10 million dollars per year?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:39 AM MST up reply actions
Who was pitching in a pitcher's park
with a career WHIP in Coors of 1.567.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:40 AM MST up reply actions
and because of that would be unlikely to sign unless we paid a premium
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
wouldn't come here.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 11:40 AM MST up reply actions
Oswalt/Kuroda didn't want to come here.
Chris Young, really?
CJ Wilson got paid like a mofo.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 11:41 AM MST up reply actions
cj Wilson took a high discount
to pitch for anaheim
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
by papality on Feb 8, 2012 1:06 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
+1000000
We get Willingham, or even Gomes and keep Seth, spend money on a GOOD FA pitcher, and I’m over the moon.
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 8, 2012 11:30 AM MST up reply actions
I seriously wonder if Dave Cameron has ever watched a baseball game in his life
My money would be on ‘no.’
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
in his defense,
can you call what the mariners have played lately “baseball?”
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
I don't think that is very fair.
My problem with Cameron is that he writes article to prove his points whether or not his points are valid. I appreciate writers who prefer to test whether they are right or wrong and explain that process rather than those who run with an assumption without really testing it out or addressing counterarguments.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
i've read fangraphs for a while
and the only time i can really remember dave admitting he was wrong about something, was when he thought matt cain had just been lucky his entire career
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He retracted that #6 org thing.
Once in a while Matt Klaasen posts about things he was wrong about, which I respect. Blogging is tough though – you have to crank out several posts and keep up with several things which doesn’t leave much time for reflection.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
he may have retracted it,
but it’s still hilarious
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Classical persuasive writing involves the addressing of counterarguments.
I find a lack of this a weakness in many writers who are not writing to inform, but rather to persuade. It’s not just him.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
he retracted the "fangraphs definition of..." series
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 4:51 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
haha oh yeah
that was a complete failure
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
everyone check true blue la
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 11:21 AM MST via mobile reply actions
At least Eric didn’t jack your Rockpile for yesterday.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:23 AM MST up reply actions
I like the payroll thing they have on the side of their page
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 11:56 AM MST up reply actions
Is this the blog we are to invade today?
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
We are at WAR with NLWestBlogs
We have always been at WAR with NLWestBlogs
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Well I just asked for membership,
So I will help invade the next time.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
They don't seem nearly as obsessed with us
as the Giants fans.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Dodgers fans are more fair weather
Where Giants fans seem to be a bit more hard core. And we have actually caused the Giants heartache.
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
I appreciate this reference, Cat.
Thanks.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Rex Brothers is not a right handed pitcher.
RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 8, 2012 2:36 PM MST up reply actions
interesting
they have pacheco as the backup C on opening day, with rosario presumably in AAA
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Don't put much stock into that.
Though I found it interesting as well
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 4:27 PM MST up reply actions
Potential OD roster
Looking at the potential 25-man roster, it appears that Rogers, Nelson and EY2 are the ones on the bubble of making the team or being waived.
Assuming one of Pacheco/LeMahieu or one of the 18 million pitchers has a really good spring, any chance any of the three makes it through waivers to be removed from the 40-man?? If not, what kind of return would any of them fetch in a trade?
TGFPR!!
Roenicke is on that bubble too.
And yes, there is a chance that any of the three make it through waivers, and also a chance they do not.
RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 8, 2012 2:32 PM MST up reply actions
So is SB Nation done Spazzin out?
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
Sorry,
that’s what happens when I turn the wrong key on the SBN interface.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
all the sudden i was clicking the link off of twitter gettin ready to start my day and it just wasn’t working, oh well keeps me more busy this afternoon
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 11:49 AM MST up reply actions
TRUE BLUE LA does a Rockies Off Season Review Today
It’s a Good Read
In case it isn’t already posted
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
my bad noticed it was posted up higher
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 8, 2012 11:48 AM MST up reply actions
MLB fancave finalist from Denver.
I think this is pretty funny
http://mlbfancave.mlb.com/fancave/index.jsp?content=vote&partnerId=aw-8045329928000504961-996#fbid=p5padAw_U-a
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
My money is on the Red Sox woman,
because she is a pro and the last two guys were pros.
No-one must have submitted from AZ, because the Arizona woman had an Angels shirt, a Dodgers cap, and a picture of Dodgers Stadium.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
Of the Twins woman is also semi-pro,
so she has a shot too I suppose.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:01 PM MST up reply actions
The Reds woman is also a pro.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:03 PM MST up reply actions
I mean they were actors/tv personalities. The two guys from last year were.
These women are hosts/presenters who are already on tv. The Twins woman is sometimes on the radio.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:07 PM MST up reply actions
Other pros:
Eddie Mata
Jay Tuohey
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:15 PM MST up reply actions
Oh. I hope they go with the amateurs
because isn’t that what this is supposed to be about?
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
That's what they said last year,
but those guys weren’t amateurs. There’s a reason for going with pros, and pros can be fans. Having amateurs could be a disaster too. I just think they shouldn’t sell it like, “EVERYONE HAS A CHANCE!”
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:53 PM MST up reply actions
I don't know who ended up winning it in the end.
I didn’t watch too much of it. I’m just saying I hope they do pick an amateur this time.
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Interesting top 100 at Bullpen Banter
- Chad Bettis
- Nolan Arenado
Not sure which I’m more suprised of… that Arenado is late 30s or that Bettis is late 30s.
the whole Bettis over Arenado thing in general
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 11:56 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
This is kind of strange, because the two guys there who did the Rockies top 15 list
had Arenado #1 and Bettis #4 within the system.
Maybe they just had different people do the different lists I guess.
Very odd
I put 37 and 38 next to their names and it changed it to 1 and 2.
I like Bettis but even in their comments they hedge he could be a late reliever. I think it’s a bit premature to use the thought process that he was a bullpen arm in college as set of where he will go the pros. Bettis seems high for me still. I’ve seen Arenado all the way in the top 15 on some lists. Near 40 seems low. Rankings don’t matter just wonder what caused him to slip further down.
Putting the #(x) followed by a space at the beginning of a line will always make a numbered list starting at 1.
- should actually read #1234567890 but it doesn’t
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I am kind of Shocked Nicasio didn't get some top 100 love last year
he was coming off two consecutive 5+K/BB seasons, and while he was a bit old for competition he had dominated every new step of competiton.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
if he had lied about his age and said he was 3 years younger
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 12:29 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Maybe he should have signed as Juan Violencia
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Why be a Juan for a fake name
I’d love for him to use a name like David Smith.
ray holladay
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
So, if the Rockies make the playoffs this year
Dan O’Dowd has to be a shoe-in for GM of the year. Most people have hated our offseason, but damned if Dan didn’t swing for the fences. Big trades, big signings, getting rid of a bunch of regulars, completely changing the team’s makeup and philosophy… Big Balls Dan really went all-in this year.
In general I think this is right ...
But it should be noted that rather than hating our offseason (though there certainly are those who have written this), many analysts have simply stated the Rox are difficult to predict, particularly given the uncertainty in the rotation.
I’m not sure if it’s true that most people have hated our offseason. Some folks have written against it, but I don’t think they are in the majority of writers.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Feb 8, 2012 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
I think the only things I would have changed about this offseason would be
Beltran intead of Cuddyer(shorter contract, better player, better chance to make the WS)
Seth Smith I would have traded to the Rays or Toronto for prospects(nothing agaist the guys we got, but 2 years of a guy who’s 17.2 wRAA was better than Jay Bruce, Nelson Cruz or Andre Ethier couldn’t net a better return than Outman/Moscoso)
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
While I agree about Beltran
you forgot one part: better chance of getting hurt and missing 100+games
by Purple Row Troll on Feb 8, 2012 12:44 PM MST up reply actions
I didn't forget that but we acquired Blake, Scutaro, and Hernandez
It certainly looks like we are trying to make a run at the playoffs this year, Beltran might be a bigger risk than Cuddyer, but he is also more likely to turn in an excellent season.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Anybody watched Basbeall IQ on MLB network?
Watched it last night, White Sox guy sucked
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
Amusing article on just released PECOTA comps ...
On SB NNation:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/2/8/2784689/baseball-prospectus-pecota-projections
And then there is this little gem:
@stealofhome
Chris St. John Top comps for William Swanner: Alex Rodriguez, Tony Conigliaro, Mickey Mantle. BP ranked him #18 in the Rockies system.
Hooray COMPZ!
all of the PECOTA comps seem to be best case scenario
one of Brandon Belt’s is…Barry Bonds. Swanner has always had a super high ceiling, so its no surprise his comps are fantastic. He isn’t rated highot because he has several hoops to jump through before he approaches being likely to reach it.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 8, 2012 2:08 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Oh, I get that ...
But as the article states, the comps for prospects are skewed:
But, again, there just aren’t a lot of 20-year-old seasons with which to compare.
i love mickey mantle
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Mickey Who?
Resident Lesbian Bunblogger - PurpleRow
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
some guy who used to sleep with marilyn monroe
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He's so fine he blew her mind.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 8, 2012 2:28 PM MST up reply actions
hey mickey
Resident Lesbian Bunblogger - PurpleRow
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
no he did not
i am mistaken
/shame
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
band
Resident Lesbian Bunblogger - PurpleRow
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
i have already posted the shame
please be kind in your banning, maria
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Mickey You!
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
He's a nice kid
if he would get some plate discipline that would be even better
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Now this is hee-larious:
@JGuthrie46
Jeremy Guthrie Winners & Losers of @Rockies / @Orioles trade: Winners- #Yankees training staff. Losers: @NickSwisher batting avg.
That a little self depricating humor?
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
He's already replaced
All of the goofballs we traded away… I love him.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 8, 2012 1:54 PM MST up reply actions
eat your heart out spilly
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
maybe?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/good-luck-shopping-a-j-burnett-yanks/
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
think of the comedy potential, though
literally nothing but home runs and strikeouts
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He’ll probably be way better than he was last season (note that way better doesn’t necessarily imply anything too great). If we didn’t just acquire Guthrie, I’d consider this trade provided the Yankees ate a lot of his salary.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
According to reports they are only willing to eat around $8 million of the $33mill remaining ...
So even then not a great value.
sherman says they're willing to eat all BUT $8mil
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill ESPN
There has been word that the Yankees are only willing to cover about $8 million of the $33 million left on Burnett’s contract. That makes him a $12.5 million per year pitcher over the next two seasons — still quite pricey for what he brings to the table.
Again, if they are willing to eat all but $8Million it is a different equation.
I normally don’t reenact trade moves made by the Philadelphia Charlies™
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Dan O’Dowd on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential in about two minutes.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
Summing things up if you missed it or can’t see it:
-Guthrie deal: Team was looking for a rotation anchor who threw consistent innings. In an ideal world all Rockies pitchers would be sinkerballers with great GB ratios, but in the case of pitchers with bigger FB numbers, they look at “soft/hard ratio”. Guthrie gives up ‘soft’ fly balls. Mindset to attack the strike zone will enable him to get a lot of quick outs.
-Cuddyer: Needed righty middle-of-lineup bat, spray charts show he drives balls to gaps. Intangible values – Cuddyer is a significant difference-maker in that regard, no matter how he performs on the field. Very few guys in the big leagues you can say that about.
-How the Rockies are built: 1/3 instinctive evaluation, 1/3 stats (they have their own fomula/model), 1/3 character (team before self)
-‘Window’ with Tulo is through the end of his career. CarGo is team’s most ‘gifted player’. Making no short-term decisions without balancing them out with a long-term solution. “There is no window here in Colorado.”
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
If they are going Tracy's 1/3 stat thing.
Were screwed.
insert JT matchupzzzzzzzzzzzzz gif
11 today, 10 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
so Tracy's charcter is the Borg?
Assimilate all the young arms.
11 today, 10 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES. Can't wait until fantasy starts also. This will be the 4th year for my team. The Blake St. Bombers.
confirms the "never rebuilding/always competing" theory we arrived at
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
THE ROCKIES DON’T REBUILD, THEY RELOAD!!!
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
And 2011
Was the Rockies attempting to fire a gun underwater? Or perhaps we had our fingers in the barrel of the shotgun?
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 8, 2012 4:52 PM MST up reply actions
in 2011 the Rockies thought they were too close for missiles so they switched to guns. Turns out, missiles were necessary and appropriate.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
by Resolution on Feb 8, 2012 5:07 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
A third character?
Wow.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 4:30 PM MST up reply actions
It's literally in stone at SRFATS.
As a father, I approve wholeheartedly.
As a fan, I don’t hate having to route for Delta Bravos every day. As long as said non-Delta Bravos don’t suck.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
If you are on twitter, you need to view @chrischrisman
That av owns.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 8, 2012 4:05 PM MST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
for thsoe of you not on the twitter
Resident Lesbian Bunblogger - PurpleRow
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
by hotdoglady on Feb 8, 2012 4:30 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm in this group!
YAY!!!!
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Outstanding
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
this picture makes me happy
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
What the heck is The Twitter?
The off-season sucks.
That is all.
by DAWNMARIE01 on Feb 8, 2012 4:35 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Well played
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Todd has the least visible gray.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Feb 8, 2012 4:36 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
he also looks the least happy
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
He's still the sexiest.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Feb 8, 2012 4:37 PM MST up reply actions
i dunno,
i think giambi is pretty hunky
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
lhwya
CarGo takes the lead now. And is #1 on my cHARt
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Oh I didn't realize CCR was talking about just the 30somethings.
My bad
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I'll be sad if this is true.
Jason Hammel - permanently /2011'd
Happy Now?!
OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Needs more Jamie Moyer
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
So is Giambi...
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
are you pitching yourself on this?!?!
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Feb 9, 2012 6:45 AM MST up reply actions
not the Lodo Magic Man
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
well, now that that's over with
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Who loves ya, baby?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dABsJlUvlpA&feature=related
I know you are at school in the east. Do you come back to in the summer?
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
i always have, yes
i’m actually back in CO for a while now though, financial aid and some other things went south for me
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
pun actually unintended....
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Oh. Sorry.
Come to a game with me this season. It’ll be fun.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
yeah it
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
yeah it'll work itself out
i can’t wait to go to rockies games again, i’m going to try and catch the home opener
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
So you're in the west rather than the east because things went south?
This thread should come with a GPS.
And hope that the financial aid issues get worked out asap. Although maybe after you get a chance to hit a few Rockies games while in town…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
well i was in vermont
so pretty much everything is south
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
JFK's Quote of the Day:
“Luck is the great stabilizer in baseball.” ~Tris Speaker Source: Baseball Magazine (March 1917)
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Does anyone (re: mods)
know why the fanpost section is only showing the recommended fanpost? I have my number of fanposts set to show 15 so I don’t know why it isn’t.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Maybe it's a very strong recommendation...
If you’re going to read a fanpost, it HAS to be that one..
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
It's like that across the sites.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
okay
I hadn’t checked anywhere else yet but I wanted to ask here because it was on my mind. I hope they fix it soon.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Also happening on the mobile app
How will I check on the PRMLB thread in the bathroom?
Die-hard Rockies fan since seven years after Jamie Moyer's MLB debut.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg
use the web version
the horror!
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Apparently this opinion was not shared by all.
Oh well.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Well the people who didn't like it
Can just z. z.z.z.z.zzzz.z.z.z.z.z.z.z.zzz..z.z.zx10000
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Feb 9, 2012 9:22 AM MST up reply actions
for me, it was just awe at the persistence of all involved
there is no downside to such an epic friendly debate. It’s just that, while I’ve been a part of very long arguments before here, I don’t find I have the energy to pursue persuasion of those resistant to persuasion much anymore.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2012 12:55 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Purple Row
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Get a grip: Reds’ Todd Frazier loses bat, still connects for home run (Video)
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
