Sunday Rockpile: I was wrong


Being wrong is like being alive, it's happened to all of us so far.

It turn outs that sometimes in life you are wrong. I mean the proverbial you. Ok, I mean me.

Last week I wrote about base running and much of what I wrote was wrong. It should be noted that much of the sentiment behind my reluctance to accept certain stats remains but for different reasons.

But this is no time for splitting hairs. Before I get back to counter-punching, I need the take the punch in the face that I so richly deserve. I claimed that the stats were not park adjusted and based much of my argument against the reliability of these stats on that premise.

I was wrong. The stats do park-adjust, this glossary that I should have been able to easily locate before making my argument clears up exactly how Baseball Prospectus calculates it's running stats. As you can see, there is a mechanism for attempting to account for differing park factors and in general working on a projection method that shows you how many runs a player should theoretically be scoring based on his advancement abilities given the projected expected outcome.

Rather than being a particular stat like OBP which measure only the exact number of times you do get on base, BRR and it's brethren measure expected outcomes based on a reliable formula which is sure to have some anomalies. A team or player having a high BRR does not necessarily mean they have a highly positive impact on the team on the bases, but that they should.

Much like Wilton Lopez coming in with a super nice WAR and a very telling WPA, a team or player could project to be great on the bases, but not ever actually deliver in the highest leverage situations.

But still, I was wrong and I am still learning a lot about numbers and math and things, which either makes me completely the wrong or perfect person to be doing this exercise. Still, I press on not in search of proving a point, but in search of answers. It is my job to give our readers accurate information and I failed to do that last week. I will be more thorough in the future. Back at it next week after I remember how to read things that aren't letters.

My lawyers have just informed me that this apology was too direct and have issued the following statement.

"DC is deeply saddened and regretful of recent events. He would like to apologize to anyone who maybe might have thought that they were possibly affected by his actions. During a particularly difficult time in his career, DC trusted a "source" after sustaining a major phalanges injury that he never divulged to the public. He never knowingly participated in any suspect activities  and simply wants to move one from here. To his fellow writers, readers, coaches, management, and of course MLB, DC wishes simply to communicate that if you chose to be hurt by his actions, he hopes you eventually forgive him for getting caught. He humbly accepts the punishment of vacation with the same amount of money he had before until further notice."

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