FanPost

What's Gone Wrong

It's been about 30 days since the Colorado Rockies won a game (close enough), and there's been plenty of digital ink spilled trying to explain why. Here we look at pure, unadulterated raw numbers from fangraphs.

RIRF covered the Rockies' issues hitting on the road well enough before this stretch started, but subsequently, fan blame has been heavily directed at pitchers. Is that justified?

At a high level, no. The team xFIP over the past 30 days has been 4.30. Bad, but not bad enough to be 7-19. The team wRC+, though, has been a whopping 84. Put that WITH the pitching, and we have a very, very bad team.

Put another way, we've had replacement-level pitching, above replacement-level defense, and below replacement-level offense (per fangraphs WAR).

Let's look at some individuals. These are the four players with a wRC+ over 76 in the last month (min 20 PA):

Name PA BABIP AVG OBP SLG wRC+
Troy Tulowitzki 99 .323 .307 .374 .580 148
Corey Dickerson 65 .361 .310 .385 .621 164
Drew Stubbs 49 .517 .362 .388 .553 149
Michael Cuddyer 64 .347 .317 .359 .467 117

While Drew Stubbs sacrifices goats to the BABIP gods and Dickerson mysteriously continues not to assume what has been the Cargo role in the lineup the past few years, Tulo and Cuddyer continue to be professionals and play to their respective abilities. Unfortunately, they are in small company:

Name PA BABIP AVG OBP SLG wRC+
Justin Morneau 92 .197 .202 .272 .345 58
Carlos Gonzalez 62 .270 .204 .290 .296 47
Charlie Culberson 45 .323 .227 .244 .341 36
Charlie Blackmon 98 .243 .236 .296 .382 71
Wilin Rosario 59 .306 .236 .288 .418 76
Brandon Barnes 37 .318 .216 .216 .405 50

This is a very lousy collection of 393 plate appearances; more than enough to counter the 277 better ones above. Blackmon and Rosario have saved their wRC+ numbers pretty much solely with home runs; there's not an OBP of .300 in this group. And only Morneau and Blackmon can significantly blame BABIP.

Blackmon, it should be noted, is no better than our fourth-best outfielder since April, with Cargo being behind him.

LeMahieu and Arenado are the only significant players not on these two lists, nondescriptly combining for an OBP of .301 and a wRC+ of 73 over 130 PAs.

Now let's look at starting pitching:

Name IP BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Jhoulys Chacin 27.2 .286 5.53 4.60 4.52 0.2
Jorge de la Rosa 28.1 .192 2.86 4.77 4.00 0.2
Jordan Lyles 24.1 .343 5.18 4.72 4.04 0.1
Juan Nicasio 28 .309 5.79 5.54 4.17 0
Franklin Morales 24.1 .277 6.66 7.23 5.33 -0.4

We all knew Chacin was outpitching DLR, right? Ok, this group hasn't been good, but there is at most one Manship here. What we're missing, which we had last year (wait, last year was good?) are the plus performances of Jhoulys de la Chatwood.

It is discouraging to see that supposedly "lucky" things like BABIP really aren't against us. At all. At the same time, the team has played better-than-this ball for years with similar overall rotation performance.

Now, that bullpen...

Name IP BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Adam Ottavino 12.1 .333 4.38 3.32 3.33 0.2
Rex Brothers 12 .350 7.50 4.24 4.59 0
Thomas Kahnle 13 .171 2.08 4.39 4.90 0
Matt Belisle 8.2 .357 7.27 4.81 3.33 0
LaTroy Hawkins 8.2 .273 4.15 4.58 4.44 0
Nick Masset 13 .286 4.85 5.00 4.32 -0.1
Christopher Martin 3 .333 12.00 9.41 1.62 -0.1
Boone Logan 3.1 .500 13.50 9.68 3.46 -0.3

Why does xFIP always love the pitchers with the worst actual results? Oh, right, it thinks BABIP is random.

This list does seem to show a bullpen that is lousier than the rotation, and not particularly unlucky. The pen has a negative WAR on the season now, with only Kahnle and Belisle joining Ottavino above zero. Poor usage has not helped. This after an offseason where we spent a lot on the pen...

When I look at all of this, I see the rotation as the least of our long-term worries (and folks, the short-term doesn't matter anymore). We have three decent starters on the DL and Chacin is our best pitcher in the long run. The pen is a mess, though, and we need to be figuring out who gets to stay next year.

The offense is the real concern. The Coors Effect is killing us on the road and we continue not to solve it. The new aggressive approach has resulted in the third-worst walk rate in MLB, and the corresponding low strikeout rate from April has disappeared. Cycling through hitting coaches with different philosophies is not creating sustainable solutions. Until this team figures out a way past this issue, the best we can hope for is more fun quarter-seasons.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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