Saturday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Dec 15, 2007 7:54 AM MST in Rockpile

Wow, I picked an eventful day to be on the road. As the comments to yesterday's thread showed, the Rockies moves of signing Luis Vizcaino and Chris George sort of pale in comparison to moves made by the Diamondbacks to revamp their pitching staff by trading for Dan Haren and dealing closer Jose Valverde for Chad Qualls and Chris Burke. The AZ Snakepit has the complete breakdown from the D-backs' side. The ramifications for these moves as far as the division in 2008 aren't as easy to gauge as they probably should be due to the nature of the way the Snakes won in 2007. Haren unquestionably makes the team's rotation much better, and Qualls isn't as far removed from Valverde's value that the closer label would have us believe add in Chris Burke, and I think the Snakes won that trade. What happened to the Astros looking for a reliever and starter for Burke anyway?

Anyway, the Diamondbacks won the NL West in 2007 while being outscored which doesn't happen very often. I'm not saying this to take anything away from their crown, it doesn't matter how they came about those ninety wins, they did and they earned it. The issue is that we have to factor how they came about that negative run differential in trying to predict what happens in 2008. Factoring also that their lineup is more likely than any in the division to get better by keeping the same personnel, that the two left handed members of their rotation are fading with age, that their bullpen remains kind of shallow, that their defense mixes the legitimately great (Orlando Hudson, Chris Young) with the mediocre (Stephen Drew, Eric Byrnes) it all adds up to a pretty solid albeit flawed team in the coming season. I think more than anything these trades allow Arizona to go from being a half step back of the rest of the division's contenders (despite winning last season) to a step ahead.

I think the moves added a lot to the surface value of the club for the next couple of seasons, but an issue of pitching depth remains. Last year, I thought they were an overrated team with a too young and inconsistent offense (which I was right about) and a pitching staff that lacked any serious teeth beyond Brandon Webb (which I was wrong about). For 2008, I think they are a scary and serious contender that we'll have to deal with. I think the Rockies still catch up in 2009 and 2010, frankly, as they are married to Eric Byrnes in left field for the duration of his contract, and I'm of the opinion that their infield production won't live up to their expectations. By then, our young pitching matures, and while Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe might be fading, we should get a serious boost from Chris Nelson and/or Dexter Fowler, as well as peak performance by Ian Stewart and Tulo.

I think I'd give the Snakes the edge in the division for next season at this point, right now I'd rank the teams like they finished last year with the exception of switching Los Angeles and San Diego:

Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

I see the three middle teams as more or less on a similar tier right now, and San Fran's obviously still way behind the pack.

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Comments

What woudl the Rockies do?

Look at the Ariz. trade with Hou. like this:

If the Astros had offered Burke, Qualls & Gutierrez for Corpas, would the Rockies have done the deal, and would they be a better team?

I don't thnk that trade does as much for Ariz. as it would have for the Rockies. The Rox have an opening at 2B that Burke could've filled. The Snakes have Orlando Hudson there, meaning Burke's only a utility player there -- a lesser impact. (If they plan to use him in the outfield, that will be a mistake.)

I don't think Gutierrez will ever be a quality major league pitcher. Of the Astros' young starting prospects (all but 1 now traded), he was the weakest.

Qualls is inconsistent -- great one day, bombed the next. He has great movement on his pitches. That's the good news. The bad news is he can't control the movement & sometimes the ball moves into the meat part of the zone. Not consistent enough to be a closer. He's a pretty good set-up guy, though, over the course of a seson. He'll add strength to Arizona's bullpen, but not as much as they lost by subtracting Valverde -- at least the 2007 version of Valverde. Look for late-inning losses by the Snakes.

Burke alone was never going to bring a starter & a reliever. The Rox wouldn't trade Fuentes for him 1-on-1 (smartly, they shouldn't give up their only reliable lefty). Burke had to be part of a package. I wonder if the same package was offered to the Rockies for Corpas. Guess we'll never know.

by strosnrocks on Dec 15, 2007 8:28 AM MST reply actions

Corpas is probably off-limits......

but I could have seen the Rockies pulling the trigger on Fuentes instead. Replacing Fuentes with Qualls as our main set-up guy probably would be a wash except for the loss of dominance against lefties. We would have to find a real good LOOGY or hope that Mark Redman would morph into a solid lefty reliever. We may not trade Fuentes this offseason for that very reason since we have no obvious replacements and Affeldt is also gone.

by Roxpert on Dec 15, 2007 9:09 AM MST up reply actions

Arizona

I waited for them to fade all last season and I'm going to feel the same in 2008 because their offense is so horrible. When Eric Brynes is your best overall hitter.. well then the odds have to catch up with you at some point.

So... Unless they get a big bopper into that line up and since they have an unknown in the closer role, I'm going to repeat my prediction from last year and say that they'll have a hard time finishing .500 despite the border line great rotation.

by roxhead on Dec 15, 2007 9:36 AM MST reply actions

What worries me...

Is that we know that Eric Byrnes isn't their best hitter. That award has to go to either Upton or Young, who are both in the still putting it together stages of their careers. If they get any sort of development from their kids, that's a scary team.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Dec 15, 2007 11:47 AM MST up reply actions

Yeah

I was going to point out that Drew/Upton/Young et all will have had one more year to mature and put it together, and they will almost certainly be better than they were this year. Add in Webb/Haren/Johnson/Davis/Owings, and that's not something I'm looking forward to facing at the top of the division.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 15, 2007 12:27 PM MST up reply actions

BEST HITTER MIGHT BE.....

Owings who may be getting some additional ABs in the field.

by 86 wins in 07 on Dec 16, 2007 9:29 AM MST up reply actions

Greg Renyolds?

I haven't seen much news on the guy. I know he had a shoulder repair this year, which is a very very very bad sign. Is he expected to come to spring training and compete for a job in the rotation?

by oxsnard on Dec 15, 2007 9:45 AM MST reply actions

Braves want Fuentes?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/braves-eyeing-b.html

The Braves don't have much to send our way that we absolutely NEED right now (aka a 2B they're willing to part with), but we could get some good names for Fuentes. Esp if, as the comments below it suggest, we throw in Taveras. I wouldn't mind seeing either of them leave if we get some good quality pitching in return.

by oo_nrb on Dec 15, 2007 12:07 PM MST reply actions

lillibridge would look nice at the deuce

maybe even Brandon Jones to replace Hawpe soon.

by David OhNo on Dec 15, 2007 12:24 PM MST up reply actions

Fuentes

I'm all for getting max return, but I can't see going into this season without a solid 8th inning guy. That's pretty much a must for contending teams these days.

Speier may be that guy, but maybe he's not. Otherwise, what's left? Vizciano? too erratic. Casey Weathers? maybe sometime down the road but not yet. Morillo? capellan? Newman?

If we can pull off, say Kelly Johnson for Fuentes and Tavares, hell yeah. Let's do it and figure out the 8th inning thing later. But if it's giving up Tito for a middle of the rotation guy or some so-so 2B prospect, I don't think I pull the trigger.

by BroJB @ Purple Row on Dec 15, 2007 2:06 PM MST up reply actions

KELLY JOHNSON IN A ........

minute...that guy is an all star waiting to happen.

by 86 wins in 07 on Dec 16, 2007 9:31 AM MST up reply actions

Unexplored 2B option?

Mark Ellis

30 years-old, should be available via trade for a somewhat reasonable price, will make $5 million in 2008, great defense and average-to-above average offense at second. Considering the A's are seemingly conceding the fact they won't be in contention in 2008, I imagine Beane will be shopping Ellis soon.

Might be too expensive, but with Matsui's and Carroll's salaries off the books, they should be able to accommodate his salary. The Rockies haven't shown any public interest in him (perhaps due to his salary), but he should definitely be on the market.

by malakian on Dec 15, 2007 1:43 PM MST reply actions

THAT'S THE SAME AS......

Haren's salary next season. He would have been a bigger part of the climb to the top. Beane will ask for almost the same package for Ellis.

by 86 wins in 07 on Dec 16, 2007 9:33 AM MST up reply actions

So anyhow

What's the consensus on Vizcaino? Are we happy about a 2year/7M RHP? Better K/9 than Hawk, but just about the same price tag for a middle reliever. Are we considering him Fuentes insurance?

And are we sold on Corpas? I like to think I am, esp since his 2006 debut was solid enough to think that 2007 wasn't just a fluke young pitcher season. I just worry about young closers. I s'pose the good news is that we have strong late inning arms coming along.

I don't know. Our bullpen always has me concerned. Always has. Even as good as the pitching was post ASG in 2007.

I guess, thinking about it from another angle, we have Corpas, Speier, potentially Morillo, and Buchholz all being 'backed up' by Herges and Vizcaino and potentially Redman, if that makes any sense, just in terms of Young pitcher/Veteran pitcher depth.

I suppose it's a good mix. I always fear poor rebounds.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 15, 2007 2:11 PM MST reply actions

Viz

Good sigining. Hawkins is not a long term answer and Vizciano showed some real good things in a pressure cooker atmosphere in NYC. He'll be a nice addition.
Corpas is the truth.
If Fuentes stays, I like our pen. If he goes, we need another late inning guy.

by BroJB @ Purple Row on Dec 15, 2007 2:13 PM MST up reply actions

again, don't get me wrong

I love Mannytime. When the 9th comes about, I just kind of say "welp, it's all over, gg opponent".

But with Corpas' lack of a straight up and down blow'em down fastball, I get the impression that he'll have a couple good years as the young GOOD relief pitcher who can close, and eventually find himself somewhere in middle relief, still doing a good job.

I still want to see if Ramon Ramirez bounces back. He has a better K/9 than Manny, reasonably good HR control, but gives up a lot of hits and walks. If he can get the walks down, he might have a decent future in a late-bullpen role. He also has SP endurance, and was used as a starter in the minors.

Anyhow, it'll be interesting.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 15, 2007 2:45 PM MST up reply actions

DON'T FORGET LHP......

Newman....he is going to contribute; given the chance.

by 86 wins in 07 on Dec 16, 2007 9:34 AM MST up reply actions

LA Signs Kuroda

another big money starting pitcher comes to the NL West. Who know show good this guy is, but he just got paid. 3 year deal at $12-15M per.

Dodgers rotation is now Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Kuroda, and Jason Schmidt.

What a crazy division for staring pitching.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/kuroda-remains.html

by BroJB @ Purple Row on Dec 15, 2007 2:11 PM MST reply actions

Rumor was

The Orioles were waiting for Kuroda to sign before shipping off Bedard. Not sure where Bedard will end up now, maybe Seattle since they failed to win the Kuroda sweepstakes?

by malakian on Dec 15, 2007 2:34 PM MST up reply actions

Are we set with Wells/Redman as our fifth starter?

Until we're sure about Franklin Morales, that is? Would a conversation with Josh Towers be worth having? Any reason to put together a Jason Jennings reunion tour? Does a Blanton trade appeal?

by Since1993 on Dec 15, 2007 2:48 PM MST reply actions

I have to say

Wells/Redman does not appeal to me at all. Wells got blown up in the NL Central last year, and Redman... yeah. They might have some use, but they have no place in prominent roles on a pennant defender. Jennings, I'd like to see back if he was healthy; he's had success here and the fans love him. Blanton, we might be able to pry away since the Haren trade seems to signify that Beane isn't planning to compete any time soon. But yeah, that is a shoddy and much too suspect twosome to be sticking in our rotation.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 15, 2007 2:59 PM MST up reply actions

"Prominent" roles

I wouldn't call #5 starter, being a bad outing away from being replaced by Franklin Morales, a "prominent" role. We mostly seem to be signing these guys as insurance in case somebody gets hurt or isn't ready coming out of spring training, not to play a prominent role on the team.

It's not like the Cardinals, who started their defense of their World Championship with Wells as (I believe) the #2 starter. That is a prominent role.

http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 15, 2007 3:17 PM MST up reply actions

True

But still, I'd like to see us have other options that may be slightly more trustworthy, in the event that Frankie himself still isn't entirely ready.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 15, 2007 3:56 PM MST up reply actions

And who would that be exactly?

There simply isn't anything available on the free agent front that makes me say ooh...we should sign that guy!, and the pitching that is available via trade would likely cost too much. Of the pitchers that are still out there, I don't think any of them are much better than what Kip Wells represents. They're all just insurance plays when you think about it.

by Prospector on Dec 15, 2007 4:10 PM MST up reply actions

Both are correct!

I want someone besides Kip Wells (Mr. I follow Josh Fogg yet again) for our #5 insurance pitcher.

BUT...like who?...um Lohse? Livan Hernandez? FOGG? all to be over paid I'm sure.

But when the Dodgers will be running out Schmidt as their NUMBER 5! we are really loosing this arms race that is the NL West.

So we need to out hit them....I'd settle for a big extension for Matt Holliday (not that Boras will let that happen)

2006 TIME magazine "Person of the Year"

by Redhawk on Dec 15, 2007 4:47 PM MST up reply actions

I'm still wondering about Towers...

Great control, induces a lot of groundball hits. I mean, we only have two guys we're 100% sure of in Cook and Francis. Hirsh and U-ball have had promising starts and Frankie jumped up from double-A.

by Since1993 on Dec 15, 2007 5:35 PM MST up reply actions

Rockies 2008 ZIPS

projections are out at The Baseball Think Factory.

vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Dec 15, 2007 10:39 PM MST reply actions

What?

That's just laughable.

by Since1993 on Dec 15, 2007 11:31 PM MST up reply actions

Link/summary

of the disrespect? (I'm assuming)

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 16, 2007 12:09 AM MST up reply actions

Google

How hard is it to Google the BTF? :)

Here's your TinyUrl linkage:

http://tinyurl.com/2q7gxq

vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Dec 16, 2007 12:15 AM MST up reply actions

It's late

I'm tired, it's almost end of semester.

That's my excuse for everything. But thanks anyway.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 16, 2007 12:19 AM MST up reply actions

I see what you mean

Went down the list grading: "Ridiculous... very ridiculous... are you kidding me... ridiculous..."

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; subsisting on a football diet until spring. Go Broncos!

by Silverblood on Dec 16, 2007 12:21 AM MST up reply actions

Well

I was about to be annoyed about those. Then I went back and searched for the 2007 Rockies projections. I'm still chuckling. The underestimations of so many Rockies players' slugging percentages are the main reasons for the inaccuracies of last year's numbers. I'm fairly confident history will repeat itself this summer.

rockies in october.

by LarryB303 on Dec 16, 2007 12:21 AM MST up reply actions

Yep...

Things like that always remind me that predictions are meaningless. That being said, a lot did go right for us last year, but that can be said of any team who makes a long term run.

In my mind, he's expecting a ton of regression from the entire team, which is strange at best (ex. Holliday and Helton only people over .300, Jeff only man in double digit wins). Even then, if you believe his projections, as long as Holliday doesn't go down for an extended period of time, we could easily plug in Spilly and Smith and not see a whole lot of drop off. He does have Ianetta progressing do a respectable level, so I'm trying not to get worked up over this. Trying.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Dec 16, 2007 12:53 AM MST up reply actions

2007 Projected vs. Actual

For those who doesn't want to fight Google or the BTF Archive Beast, here are 2007's projected OPS and the actual result.

Player Actual Proj.
Torrealba .699 .705
Helton .928 .949
Matsui .747 .715
Atkins .853 .910
Tulowitzki .838 .790
Holliday 1.012 .953
Taveras .749 .736
Hawpe .916 .861

That's a standard error of 21 points of OPS and an average error of 36 points. Anyone who expects better than that (or, on a regular basis, even as good as that!) is probably overestimating the ability of machines or people to project baseball performances. I'd probably trade a testicle to do 36 points with any kind of regularity!

For reference, for batters with 250 PA, ZiPS and PECOTA both had average errors of 61 points. BP invited a group of 40 experts some years ago for an experiment on projections and even with just 100 hitters, the best score was in the upper 50s, which one would have expected from the group from random chance.

by DSzymborski on Dec 16, 2007 3:01 PM MST up reply actions

I'm not

chuckling because it's inaccurate; I'm chuckling because except for Atkins, all the significant mistakes were underestimations. Hawpe by 55 points. Holliday by 59. Tulo by 48. I'm confident that the 2008 Rockies will also have probably 1 guy drastically underperform (Helton, maybe?) and at least 2 or 3 drastically overperform (Holliday and Tulo again, plus possibly Stewart if he's the everyday 2B). I'll give credit where credit is due- ZiPS appears to be very accurate. But when it comes to the Rockies, I have the feeling it's consistently underestimating most of the team (as opposed to overestimating and underestimating equal numbers of players). Looking back to 2006 we see similar results. Helton's projections were way too optimistic (as were Barmes's, but he wasn't supposed to be anything special anyways) but Hawpe, Holliday, Atkins, and Carroll's were way too pessimistic. If Hawpe and Holliday have much better years than projected 2008, it would be 3 straight years that happened. At some point, you have to conclude that the projections just aren't aware of how good certain Rockies are.

rockies in october.

by LarryB303 on Dec 16, 2007 4:06 PM MST up reply actions

LEFT OR........

RIGHT?

by 86 wins in 07 on Dec 16, 2007 4:07 PM MST up reply actions

By the way...

Who is playing 2B next year?
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Dec 16, 2007 12:48 AM MST reply actions

AAAA pu-pu platter

Check back in two months. When we know, you'll know. :)

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Dec 16, 2007 12:54 AM MST up reply actions

In my opinion...

It's gonna be Nix in front with Stewart behind him. I don't think Stewart is gonna convert well. If he does, he'll take over my #1 spot, but for now, it seems Nix will be our replacement-level fill in.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 16, 2007 11:41 PM MST up reply actions

Here's the DEAL

Nix being a better second baseman has nothing to do with anything.........Here's why, Stewart is a better third baseman than Atkins, what's that get him??????? They want Stewart in the lineup, and second is the open spot. With a good spring, the job will be Stewarts.

by roxtalk on Dec 17, 2007 6:00 PM MST reply actions