Predicting wins with basic stats
by Bloynoys on May 4, 2012 1:41 AM MDT
Hey guys and gals, I have been working on this project for a couple of weeks for Regression Analysis here for my stats major and thought you would like to take a look at it (hopefully to not tear it to shreds!). We were tasked to find and use a data set that had at least 5 predictors, one qualitative predictor. So, I decided that if I was going to spend my time to do this anyway, my as well make it something somewhat interesting and so I picked 18 predictors of "normal" stats in hopes of predicting wins.
These guys are hard to take...
by Tensolator on May 1, 2012 7:55 PM MDT
Have you all nicknamed Cuddyer yet?
by bl4ckduck on Apr 30, 2012 4:41 PM MDT
Twins fan here. I'm just checking in to see how you all are treating the man of many talents, Michael Cuddyer. Apart from being an amazing magician (they're illusions, Michael) and pillar of any community, Michael Cuddyer is fun to cheer for as well. I realize that the consensus on this site is that signing him was like winning third place in a beauty pageant (Two organic Arrested Development jokes in as many sentences? What are the odds?), but again the consensus was that he was still desirable, even if his price tag was, all things considered, a bit of a turn-off. I hear you, that's pretty much the same reason we Minnesotans weren't devastated to see him go, even if he is helping you win a few more games than you would have with Street or Jurrjens or however you were going to allocate your resources.
It's been a month, people. Do you have a nickname for him yet? My two cents...after the jump!
Expected BABIP and a whole lot more
by Chacinisthefuture on Apr 27, 2012 9:39 AM MDT
So in today's [Thursday's] Rockpile we were discussing the Rockies team BABIP and whether or not the Rockies were being cheated out of hits. Now most commonly it is believed that batters and pitchers BABIP should normalize around .300. However, if you look at the stats of hitters who have a very large sample size of at-bats like Todd Helton, career BABIP of .334 over 8728 PA, you begin to realize that with individual players and teams you can expect a wide range of BABIP.
So the next step becomes how do you know what a player's BABIP should be, obviously how they hit the ball matters, line drives are more likely to be hits then grounders, and grounders are more likely to be hit then flyballs So taking those thoughts and doing a little math you arrive at a simple formula
expected BABIP = .15 * FB% + .24 * GB% + .73 * LD%
which assumes that 15 % of fly balls on average become hits, 24% of ground balls and 73% of line drives.
Now you can go a little bit deeper into xBABIP formula you can find some interesting formulas all of which are more involved taking into account a lot of other factors. The one I used came from slash12 from beyond the boxscore with the original article found here.
xBABIP =0.391597252 + (LD% x 0.287709436 ) + ((GB% - (GB% * IFH%) ) x -0.151969035 ) + ((FB% - (FB% x HR/FB%) - (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.187532776) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.834512464) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.4997192 )
Fangraphs as well as a few other sites I checked out recommended it as accurate as a predictive stat could be. So I went ahead and plugged in the top offensive producers for the Rockies to see how their xBABIP matched up to their actual BABIP. I also wanted to compare this to their career BABIP (cBABIP) with my idea being that players who's current BABIP was below both their cBABIP and xBABIP were due for an upward regression. Also players with BABIP lower then their cBABIP, but close to their xBABIP were not due for a regression but simply had flaws in their hitting approach.
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Another way to eat innings?
by Larry Walker on Apr 26, 2012 8:25 PM MDT
Classically the starter begins the game and goes until his wheels fall off. Then a reliever or series of relievers come in to finish the game. That’s modern baseball.
With a slew of young unproven pitchers, and Jorge De La Rosa hopefully coming back from surgery in June or so (with an innings limit), the concern was whether the bullpen could survive the season. Can enough of the talent of the young Rockies starting pitchers shine through this year. Many seemed at least a year away. Young pitchers typically have trouble going deep into games. Further, pitching is, well, unreliable. It doesn’t always develop on a schedule, or sometimes at all.
The Rockies brought in Jeremy Guthrie to eat innings. My concern is that there are more innings to be eaten than the Guthrie solution by itself can manage.
My recommended solution, six starters. Every fifth game you start two starters. Each goes four or five innings and the bullpen gets a rest for the day. Relievers have frequently become one inning, or even one batter specialists. This gets around that limitation and plays to the Rockies depth in young starters.
Imagine a game that matters in August with Jamie Moyer starting and Jorge de la Rosa finishing up. Preserving both their recovering elbows and keeping the relief corps more or less on the bench for the day. (The Rockies could promote it as Tommy John Day.) Combined they could be as effective as a top pitcher who delivers complete games.
The Rockies starters have not had a great start to the year. Guthrie, Moyer and Nicasio have delivered two quality starts each in four starts. Not terrible on a small sample, but not great. Guthrie (3.1 innings) and Nicasio (2.2 innings) have each had one lousy start. The three are averaging around six innings per start.
Chacin is an enigma this year. One quality start and averaging four innings per outing. He is just entering the zone where the question is, are we seeing a slow start to the season or a problem in the making. I have no idea, but if he returns to last year’s more than 6 innings per start average, that solves slot number four.
Drew Pomranz is the fifth starter now, but this applies to Pomeranz and all the guys in the minors. They are learning and as fifth starters not as much is expected of them, performance wise. Hopefully Pomeranz keeps learning and is going deep into most games after the all star break.
If one of the starters goes down, this also applies to whomever gets called up. I can't recall a starting pitching staff going through an entire year intact, not likely to happen.
So whether the pairing is de la Rosa and Moyer, or a different combination of pitchers, using two starters every fifth game will lighten the load on the Rockies bullpen. Otherwise the relievers will be looking at pitching maybe two or three innings in three out of five games and perhaps four to six innings the other two games every trip through the rotation. They won’t survive.
More pitcher stats for discussion so you don't have to skip around the web are below.
Jamie Moyer 4 Cy Young? GTHO!
by lizardlad01 on Apr 24, 2012 6:36 PM MDT
I am happy that the Rockies are performing so well this season. I expected them to be competitive, but not this early. It seems like Dealin' Dan O'Dowd dealt this team into success. Is there a piece of wood I can knock on nearby? I"m not a superstitious man by nature, but the way the Rockies are going this season I expect them to be in the running for the NL West crown and for Jamie Moyer to be competitive in the Cy Young vote, if not win it.
Are you still there? Should I call 911? A 49 year old winning the Cy Young award? Well, Gaylord Perry did it at 40 and than Roger Clemens broke that record at 42. So, let me lists some reason why he could win it.
Pros
- Jamie benefits from being out of baseball for a year. Batters don't know him that well.
- Jamie benefits from being left-handed.
- Jamie benefits from having very slow pitches which are great for Coors Field.
So that's the good news. And now the bad news.
Cons
- The last time Jamie Moyer was in the discussion for the Cy Young award was in 2003. He had a 3.27 ERA and won 21 games.
- He is coming off of surgery.
- He pitches at Coors Field.
Please pass the purple-tinted Kool-aid and give me the purple-tinted glasses.
On another note, I believe Jamie Moyer will win 300 games for his career. Does anybody want to take me on that bet?
Colorado's Starting Pitching: How Much More Abysmal Could It Get?
by ASwaim3 on Apr 18, 2012 1:32 PM MDT
Now, most of what I'm saying I've pondered before last night's brilliant performance by Jamie Moyer, now a part of MLB history. Despite Moyer going 7 and 2 last night, Colorado's starting pitching is pretty much the worst in baseball. Before last night, it had been 5 games since we walked off the hill after 1 without allowing a run. Down like that, how could any team succeed?
But, as much as I hate it, I saw it coming because I felt the rotation was headed in the wrong direction with a couple acquisitions. First was Jeremy Guthrie. Although we got him for practically nothing, he has been a loser his entire career. NO, I ACTUALLY MEAN he lost more games than he won--no name calling here. And he was called upon to be the ace until De La Rosa came back! He's not even a half decent 2nd starter, much less an ace. Guthrie is 1-1, despite having a 7.79 ERA after 3 starts.
Second was Jamie Moyer. I'll admit last night, he earned. But the guy just has me on edge simply because of Coors Field. Flyball pitchers get killed. Let's remember though--it was the Padres he faced. Moyer is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA, but he's had tons of unearned runs on top of that, which in my opinion is always on the pitcher because he can get out of it. Moyer has given up runs at crucial times that have just killed our game twice. He's made history, but will likely be history when JDLR gets back.
So I have sat back, and seemingly every game watched our pitcher go 3-5 innings and give up 5-6 runs all season. This is pretty much the quality of outing you should get from a AAA quality pitcher against a big league team, but Chacin, Guthrie, and Moyer all have extended time in the show. BUT, the main question is: why are veterans out there getting hammered?
Alex White has #2 starter written all over him if he can stay sober, yet he's in AAA, and he gave up a couple for Sky Sox in 6 innings last time out. He's got to play right away if I'm the GM, mostly because he and Pomeranz both need to prove their worth now, as many of the casual "sheeple Rockies fans [post 2007 bandwagoners]" as I call them are still hurt by the Ubaldo trade, you know, despite him trying to behead Tulo. White has to be in the rotation if I'm Dan O'Dowd, especially now that Moyer got what he really came to do: get 1 win. By the way, he had a 1.65 ERA in purple pinstripes in 4 games inlate 2011.
Guillermo Moscoso was in my thoughts yesterday about planning this article, but as far as stats go, he's getting killed in AAA, but last night helped his cause. He went 6.2 innings and only gave up the lone run. He could have gone further, but the Sky Sox bullpen is absolutely taking names right now. Moscoso had a sub-3.50 ERA in the American League, which is very impressive, but he struggled in spring. He should be there, and it may even be worth questioning Guthrie's rotation spot.
Chacin and Nicasio aren't going anywhere. Both have had one fantastic and one shaky start. That's what you'll get, so just be sure to win those game they're on, which we have done. We're 2-2 in Chacin and Nicasio's starts. Pomeranz got shelled on Sunday, but he was making his 2012 debut and is a rookie (plus #42 on your back is a little pressure, eh?). I expect Pomeranz could still get to 15 wins, especially with trips to SF, SD, and LAD left in plentiful amounts for this season.
So, yes, I may get shelled myself on here like I have with most of my articles for MileHighHockey, but I would go as far to say that if our starters keep getting pummelled, I would consider looking to Moscoso or White for some magic, and ditch the veterans that are "changing our culture". "Our culture" is still .500 ball, though.
Sitting down with Tulsa infielder (and Colorado prospect) Josh Rutledge
by kgh23 on Apr 18, 2012 7:05 AM MDT
Prior to Tuesday night's home game against Corpus Christi, I had the chance to sit down with Tulsa second baseman/shortstop Josh Rutledge. The 22-year-old (he turns 23 on April 21) was batting .283 with a team-leading three homers and seven RBIs to help Tulsa start the season with an 8-3 record.
Rutledge entered the season as one of Colorado's top 10 minor league prospects and is expected to see time at Coors Field in the very near future (probably at second base).
You can read my entire interview with Rutledge by clicking here.
PRMLB Spring Training/Opening Day Thread
by DumbAndNerdy on Apr 15, 2012 7:26 AM MDT
We'll be moving to a two thread per month schedule until the FanPosts stop pushing us off the front page. Don't worry about reccing our posts. We can save that distinction for other posts. I'll just make a new thread when we get pushed off.
Spring Training and Opening Day Schedule
Sunday, April 15: Sim February 29, 2012 to March 6, 2012.
Tuesday, April 17: Sim March 6, 2012 to March 15, 2012.
Thursday, April 19: Sim March 15, 2012 to March 22, 2012.
Sunday, April 22: Sim to Opening Day
Tuesday, April 24: Sim Opening Day (Regular Seven-Day Schedule).
Evaluating the Tulsa Drillers' first eight games of the season
by kgh23 on Apr 14, 2012 6:02 PM MDT
Entering Saturday night's home game against the San Antonio Missions, the Tulsa Drillers sported a 5-3 record and were in first place in the Texas League's North Division.
Dennis Higgins, the play-by-play voice of the Tulsa Drillers, has called all of the Driller action so far this season, so I thought he'd be a great person to ask about Tulsa's early-season success and what he thinks of top prospect Nolan Arenado.
Click here to read my interview with Higgins and his thoughts on the Tulsa Drillers.
