Wednesday Morning Rockpile:
In our losing, it's easy to see all the issues that will make it very difficult for this team to come back into contention in 2008 -such as how we're going to hide the evidence in regards to the disposal of Mark Redman - but it's also easy to lose sight of the promising developments that should help us make another improbable rebound this season, or at the very least compete in 2009, if it comes to that.
Let's start with Chris Iannetta. After last night, Chris -despite starting half the games of those ahead of him- is already the sixth best catcher in the majors in offensive value added according to Baseball Prospectus' VORP stat, and the rate at which he's providing that value is sixth best overall in the NL among players with over 50 AB's. Now, the guy just ahead of him in that latter category is the similarly small sampled Ronny Cedeno, so maybe it would be wise if we held off all of our glee until CDI has doubled his plate appearances, but it's starting to look like last season was the fluke in Chris' career, not the norm.
While we're talking about the rate at which offensive value is added, for the Rockies the top five (20 PA minimum, so Q and Herrera don't qualify yet) look like this:
- Chris Iannetta .688
- Scott Podsednik .535
- Ryan Spilborghs .393
- Matt Holliday .347
- Clint Barmes .316
Seriously, what does it say when four of our top five offensive performers are -or at least were at the start of the season- bench players? Meanwhile -in keeping with the backwards theme- five of our six most valuable pitchers have come from the bullpen. But I was going to keep this post forward looking, so the good news is that Francis and Jimenez are improving and while Francis has already turned to a plus, Jimenez should swing that way by his next start if he keeps taking steps forward. The linked Tracy Ringolsby article says that Jason Hirsh is throwing bullpen sessions and the hope is he'll be activated by early June. Greg Reynolds is progressing and should be ready for a call-up soon as well.
All we need is to put the bench guys in, rack up some runs and win a few 12 to 10 De La Rosa and Redman starts in May, and we'll be all set. Simple.
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Wednesday Pebble Report:
I'm going to post some of the positive highlights of the first month of the season from each affiliate later this evening, but in the meantime, here are the recaps from last night. My new Farm Report at the Rocky talks about the oddity of Casey Weathers' groundball tendencies thus far.
Colorado Springs: L 10-5
For the first four innings, it looked like things were finally turning around for ol' Vic Zambrano. Yep. He was cruising along with a shutout, just three walks and three hits allowed, things were finally going his way. He'd be in Denver in no time, especially considering what Mark Redman was doing just up the road. Of course, reality had to hit sometime, in Zambrano's case it was with the nine runs he gave up in the fifth and sixth. The Sky Sox scored five in the last two innings to halve the margin, starting with an Ian Stewart solo shot, but the comeback was too little, too late.
Tulsa: L 5-4
Tough luck for Brandon Hynick in this one, Brandon pitched into the seventh and allowed just a pair of runs on seven hits and six strikeouts. As David Ohno mentioned in yesterday's comments, in his last four starts Hynick has gone at least six innings each time and he has a 19/1 K/BB margin. The two runs both were solo homeruns, which is a little troubling, but overall it looks like Hynick's adjusted to AA. Corey Wimberly had a pair of hits, and he and Dexter Fowler each stole two more bases, but the Drillers offense is otherwise still slumping.
Modesto: L 8-5
Aneury Rodriguez apparently took off for the week and left his less effective twin as a replacement. This Rodriguez couldn't get through the third inning and gave up five runs on six hits, two walks and a wild pitch. Cole Garner and Geoff Strickland hit well for the Nuts, but otherwise the offense was still flat. Speaking of, Jay Cox is hoping a different uniform brings him better luck.
Asheville: W 11-7
A solid start by Cory Riordan and a nine run sixth inning fueled the Tourists win last night. David Christensen had his second straight three for four game -including two two run hits in that big inning. He told Jason McGill that he's changed his stance over the past week. We can all hope that the solution to his hitting woes is that simple, because the kid has a ton of talent.
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Tuesday Morning Rockpile:
If it wasn't clear before last night, it must be today: expect to see changes to the rotation. Last night's "fifth-inning fiasco" may have been the tipping point for deciding Morales' rotation status. And Wells didn't help his cause to move into the rotation after his performance last night.
Morales isn't the only one in trouble, as Ubaldo Jimenez and Mark Redman are also walking a fine line. The article speculates that if both Jimenez and Redman continue to struggle, expect Jimenez to move to the bullpen and Redman to be cut loose. If both moves happen and Franklin Morales is demoted, who does that leave as possible rotation candidates? Well, Matt Morris doesn't appear to be an option, but Josh Towers and Greg Reynolds may be promoted. However, O'Dowd doesn't sound too enthusiastic about promoting Reynolds now:
"Towers has been good, and Reynolds had a good start last time out. We would like to give Reynolds more time down there, though," said O'Dowd of the prized prospect.
Maybe a few more good starts by Reynolds and O'Dowd will be a bit more confident in him.
But as we all know, it hasn't been just the pitching. O'Dowd also had this to say:
"Frankly we deserve to be (10-16)," said O'Dowd, who is mulling over a couple of minor trades to improve the club. "It's a lack of execution. Our starting pitchers, overall, haven't performed. We haven't gotten big hits. We haven't run the bases well. There is no rhythm to our games, offensively or defensively."
Well, we have Cook on the mound tonight. What does that mean? Good pitching, no hitting. How about changing the latter tonight, guys?
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Sunday Morning Rockpile:
Clint Hurdle is considering making a few changes to the lineup today, according to this short entry from the Denver Post. So who gets the day off? Do we see Tulo sit, even though he says he doesn't want to? A change to the outfield this time around? The possibilities are not endless, but maybe Hurdle will get a hit with today's lineup. And no, I don't mean the 'H' column will have a '1' in it. I mean a lineup that collects a bunch of hits and scores enough runs to win today. I know I was just setting that joke up for someone.
Once Kaz Matsui puts his problems behind him and returns to the Houston lineup, the Rockies, Troy Renck speculates, could inquire into Mark Loretta's availability. Renck also notes that O'Dowd concedes that any long-term contract with Holliday will have to start at $100M. And have you forgotten that the Diamondbacks won a World Series in 2001?
Todd Helton hasn't lost his humor: " 'I have one ab now,' said Helton when asked about his trimmer, leaner physique." There are also updates on Redman and Vizcaino in that article.
Time for Cook to continue on his path to a breakthrough season this afternoon.
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