According to a Tracy Ringolsby post this morning, the Rockies are getting outgunned in their pursuit of a pitcher that they want, Tim Redding, so rather than competing with other teams in the matter -which correct me if I'm wrong, competing with other teams is the point of sports, right?- they're thinking of opting for an expensive player that nobody else wants in Jason Marquis. The path to victory doesn't usually go the way of least resistance, last I checked, and I was about to go off on this idea, but at half salary Marquis isn't a bad option, with an ERA + the last two seasons of 101 and 99, and a tRA+ of 99 and 98, he's pretty much the definition of league average. If you're talking about that from a guy you want in the middle of your rotation in the NL West it would be scary, but if you're talking about that guy as a safety if your better hopes don't work out, then I can think of far worse directions we could go (Josh Fogg). CHONE's projection for Marquis sees a decline this year to #5 starter level, but still values him at $4.6 million for 2009 which is just a bit below what a 50% share of his salary would entail. Redding figures to be less valuable, but could cost more, and certainly will come at a greater premium over his projected $2.9 million value.

The one aspect that isn't factored in at all is if a trade of Marquis would also involve a player cost, which could tip it into an unwise use of resources category, but there are a few options that could work. A Marquis for David Patton and cash considerations trade makes some sense, for instance, since Patton's already on Chicago's roster after the Rule 5 draft and there's already some risk of the Rockies losing him, but he would have to clear waivers before that could happen. I was originally thinking I was going to be upset about this plan, but there's little reason to be at this point.

About a year ago I did an audit of Rockies player contributions for 2007 by the year of original acquisition, and I'm working on a similar study for 2008 to be up sometime this weekend, hoepfully tonight, but I've got my traditional Boxing Day festivities to work around.

Ringolsby also did a Winter Ball update, I just wanted to add a couple of other notes. Xavier Cedeno is doing very well out of relief in the Puerto Rican League, with a 1.35 ERA and 2.83 GB ratio. Carlos Gonzalez, meanwhile, is struggling after an initial burst in his return to DWL play with a .216 average and a 1/10 BB/K ratio in his last ten games.

Tracy Ringolsby reports that the Rockies are hanging onto Garrett Atkins not only as Todd Helton insurance, but also for a second reason that I hadn't previously associated with our incumbent third baseman, that uncertainty over Jeff Francis means that the team doesn't know if it will be needing to trade Atkins for a veteran mid-rotation starting pitcher. Of course, the problem with this line of argument from the team is that all the rumors around Atkins to date have been with the Rockies being rebuffed in their attempts to pry pitching as part of the deal. There is one significant shift here, however, in that all those previous rumors had the Rockies looking at budding top of the rotation types rather than veterans in the middle. While they were looking for a team to overpay during the winter, it seems during the season they will understand what a more realistic expected return for Atkins should look like.  

The Helton back situation is an important one. Helton's primary substitute in a post-Atkins world would be Jeff Baker, who projects to see a .265/.325/.456 line in 2009 according to Marcel, the difference between that and Atkins' projected .293/.355/.472 is fairly significant at a position that both were equally bad at defensively in 2008. The only other competitive solution to the issue necessitates Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gonzalez being assets at the MLB level in center, so Brad Hawpe could move in to first, but neither Fowler nor Gonzalez have shown that they're ready for regular big league work.

Glendon Rusch adds one more piece to the puzzle as a non-roster invite, but I'm curious what exactly came of his meeting with the team when he asked for clarification of his role. For Rusch to be added to the roster, somebody else has to be taken off, but Troy Renck's notes make it sound as if he's already got a place on the team,

Rusch and Alan Embree will be the team's primary left-handed relievers entering spring training. Embree will be a late-inning setup man, while Rusch is pegged as a long reliever and a spot starter.

even while Rusch himself acknowledges that there's going to be some sort of competition there. I know the Rockies would like to trade Luis Vizcaino, if possible, which would open a spot, but otherwise it looks like Ryan Speier would be the odd man out should Rusch be part of the opening day 25-man roster. Juan Morillo's Rockies career also seems to be pretty tenuous at the moment, but the Spring usually has a couple of surprises, so we'll see where this goes.

Fox's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Rockies still may trade for Jason Marquis if they don't land Tim Redding, an idea that was nixed by the team a few days ago. 

While Willy Taveras had been expected and rumored to be cut leading into Friday night's contract tender deadline, Jonathan Herrera's name sort of came out of the blue, but having the flexibility of another open roster spot is a good thing. Right now it looks like the Rockies are targetting Tim Redding for the spot, but there's nothing concrete there yet, so I suppose that plan can shift as the winter continues to unfold.

This past week's moves have clarified the state of the division somewhat, here's a brief recap of what I said each team still had yet to do last week, along with a short analysis of what's actually been happening:

Arizona:

What still needs to be done: Given their fiscal constraints, targeting higher quality complementary pieces (I like Alex Cora for the Rockies, he'd fit decently in Arizona, also) would help. Restocking the bullpen should be a priority as well. Scout like crazy to make the most of their draft haul.

The Diamondbacks made a somewhat surprising end-around from the rumors in snatching up Felipe Lopez to take over at second base, and he would definitely qualify as a higher quality complementary piece considering that he takes Chris Burke's spot on the roster. They also essentially replaced third catcher Robby Hammock with Rule 5 pick James Skelton and left-hander Wil Ledezma with Scott Schoeneweis. The Lopez move does make their team a little better offensively, a little worse defensively, but if stability itself has value, it should result in an improvement over the position they found themselves in a week ago. As far as their chances in 2009 go, I can't say the same about the Skelton and Schoeneweis moves, but Skelton at least provides some additional upside down the road that wasn't there last week.

The Connor Robertson for Schoeneweis trade confuses me, and I put it in a category of the sort of expensive pointlessness that teams do sometimes. The Rockies are getting Alan Embree for just a little more than the $2 million the Snakes will pay Schoe, and he's a far more effective pitcher against right handers. I do see one good reason for this trade for Arizona: one of the main reasons the other NL West teams will want to have a solid lefty or two in their pen over the next two or three years is to counteract the Rockies many left handed hitters, and Schoeneweis if nothing else has shown he does a fine job with that with a .216/.275/.243 line for the Rox in his career against them.

Colorado:

What needs to be done: If the return fits, trade Willy Taveras and possibly Garrett Atkins or Yorvit Torrealba. Extend Chris Iannetta. Find more pitching particularly an ace that's willing to come pitch at Coors Field for peanuts. Bobo the elephant comes to mind.

Adding Alan Embree while subtracting Willy Taveras doesn't really have that much of an impact on the Rockies compared to what was already known a week ago. I haven't really mentioned this, but there's a chance that Embree could be about as valuable to the club as Brian Fuentes despite being an inferior reliever thanks solely to the effects of him not being blessed with the closer mantel, and therefore free for Hurdle to put in other high leverage situations.

Did you know that the spread between the amount of pitches swung at by Chris Iannetta outside the strikezone (16.2%) and those he swung at inside the strikezone (72.3%) was the highest in the majors since Chipper Jones in 2006? Seriously. This guy is better than you realize Rockies bigwigs.

Los Angeles:

What needs to be done: Signing Manny. And a pitcher. And an infielder. And another pitcher. And another infielder. And some bench players.

Signing Casey Blake and Mark Loretta pushes the Dodgers a lot closer to where they need to be than they were at the beginning of last week, but they still have a long way to go. Neither is the impact bat that the Dodgers need to add, and the Dodgers are running out of available top of the rotation options to pursue for their pitching staff. But they did get an infielder, and Loretta by himself counts as a couple of bench players, which is useful. 

San Diego:

The Padres failed to trade Jake Peavy, but remain somewhat of a spectacle for their highly publicized attempts. They ripped Everth Cabrera from us in the Rule 5 draft. 

San Francisco:

What needs to be done: Sign a slugger or three.

A lot of the Giants work was done prior to the Winter Meetings, so there's really not much of a change here. They are still lacking an impact bat, and it's looking less likely that they will target one before the spring training camp opens.

Thomas Harding has done some digging on the failed Taveras for Redding swap, and implies that the health concerns that eighty-sixed the deal were with Rockies right-hander Juan Morillo, who was to be included in the Rockies package. Harding also has a pretty decent rundown of the status of various players including Franklin Morales and Glendon Rusch and says that the Rockies aren't going to make an offer to free agent pitcher Brad Penny.

Tracy Ringolsby's article this morning reinforces some of what Harding says, and paints a better picture of where there are expected springtime battles, left field between Seth Smith and Ian Stewart, fifth starter between a foursome of young pitchers and a veteran like Redding, in addition to Harding's mention of a couple of spots in the back of the bullpen (Glendon Rusch or Morales as long LHP's, Ryan Speier, Jason Grilli or Morillo for a RHP spot). The implication of the Rockies wanting a fifth outfielder who could play centerfield like Scott Podsednik is that Carlos Gonzalez might well start the season in AAA even without Taveras. Ringolsby says that the Mets asked for either Huston Street or Dexter Fowler(?!) for Aaron Heilman before shipping him off to Seattle as part of a massive three team trade with Cleveland.

Patrick Saunders and Troy Renck add that Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez is going to get some work in the DR starting this week, and that the team may be interested in adding reliever Luis Ayala to that bullpen scrum.

John Manuel at Baseball America backs up the word that Ringolsby gave early in the week that Corey Wimberly's getting some buzz as a Rule 5 candidate. Jonathan Mayo proposes Everth Cabrera, which I'd probably take personally, as Cabrera's one of my favorite prospects to watch.

Here are some bullets:

• Glendon Rusch and the Colorado Rockies are close to a deal for the 2009 season. Troy Renck says Rusch wants his role clarified on the team before he signs the deal, but agrees that the deal is going to happen. Renck also reports that if Willy Taveras isn't traded he'll be non-tendered.

Rusch is going to be the swingman for the Rockies in 2009, so I'm not sure what he needs clarified. The money is nowhere near what Kip Wells was given last year, a good thing.

• Patrick Saunders reports: Dan O'Dowd will look into a long-term deal with Ubaldo Jimenez once the new year comes around, but not for Chris Iannetta. The team wants to see what Iannetta can do in a full year as the starting catcher.
  

And Manny Corpas got his contract after a full season as the closer--whoops, that  didn't happen. I think it's better to wait on long-term contracts for both.

• In the last link, Dan O'Dowd has high praise for Seth Smith:

“He probably has the best swing mechanics of anybody on our team,” O’Dowd said. “I wouldn’t be shocked if he went out and hit 20 homers.”

And if he wins and keeps the job in left field. He'll face competition from Ian Stewart, who'll also receive som playing time at second, and Carlos Gonzalez, who'll compete at all three outfield positions.

• The Rockies like Josh Bard, but with Yorvit Torrealba around. . . .
  
• The Rockies might look to add Tim Redding from the Washington Nationals.
  

Redding was decent in 2003 and all right for the half a season he played in 2007, but other than that. . . . thanks, but no thanks.

• The Mets are close to a three-yeal deal with Francisco Rodriguez.

Well, Brian Fuentes will have one less suitor if this deal goes down. Supposedly the Indians are interested in Fuentes. The downside on that is, the Rockies would receive the Indians' second-round pick since they have the 15th pick in the draft.

• Reportedly, the Cubs and Padres are "very close" on a deal for Jake Peavy.
  

Not counting single-series road trips, this 10-game road stint was the best one by the Rockies yet:

Let's hope that the Rockies aren't on a pendulum and are about to swing to the other (bad) side again. Twenty-one of the Rockies' remaining games come on the road, and they're mostly in the division. Next week's series in Washington and early September's three-game stop in Atlanta are the exceptions.

But now the Rockies are back home for 10 games against the Nats, the Padres, and D'Backs. There's no season record yet against the Nats, but the Rockies are 2-1 at home while playing the Padres and a big 0-3 hosting the D'Backs. You remember those three games against the Snakes to start the home season from April 4-6, right? Outscored 5-20, Manny blowing the save in the final game after Franklin Morales went six innings and limited the D'Backs to two hits. Maybe it's better if you don't.

So, the Nationals are the worst team in the majors right now, having 41 wins in 111 contests. They also have a worse road record than the Rockies: 18-37. They have Tim Redding taking the mound tonight. The Rockies have Aaron Cook. That's about right.

It might be corrected by the time you read this, but notice that Renck twice makes the same mistake. Maybe it's because lately the suckitude of the two players has intertwined them.