Counting Rocks
Jason Marquis vs. Bill James vs. CHONE vs. Marcel vs. RMN
by Andrew Martin on Dec 2, 2009 11:00 AM MST
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Beginning of the season, Counting Rocks broke down each member of the rotation in hopes of making a prediction on the season everyone would have. While we'll cover the rest of the rotation/team later on down the line, I want to take a look at how Jason Marquis performed against the projections, as coming into the season, he was effectively the most boring starter we had, and everyone had a good idea of what we were going to get out of him. Innings eaten, unimpressive ERA, generally blah.
Boy, he sure made us look silly, didn't he? I mean, not to the extent where we're extending him, obviously, but he certainly outperformed my expectations as well as most everyone else's.
So now that we've seen Marquis' season, let's move past the jump and take a look at what the projections all had to say about him.
29 comments | 1 recs |
Gold Glove Fielding: Yet another reason why Ubaldo Jimenez is awesome
by Andrew Martin on Nov 19, 2009 11:27 AM MST
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Oh yes, we're discussing fielding. That can of worms that doesn't seem to get measured right, credited appropriately, or appreciated properly as far as building a team goes. There's a lot of debate on who are the best fielders, which metric does the best job, who are the best judges, and are Gold Glove awards complete tripe, or recognition of truly, the best gloveman?
Well, none of this really applies to pitchers, so you might as well close the can. A position player has a zone they're supposed to cover or what have you, have to play balls and field them to make outs, turn complicated plays, etc etc etc. If a fielder can't field, they'd better be able to club the ball, and vice-versa. However, a pitcher's job is to pitch the ball. Being a solid fielder is somewhat of a bonus, but not really a make-or-break kind of situation, as most balls that a pitcher actually needs to properly field aren't going to fall in the gap for doubles or rattle around in the corner; that is to say that typically, the worst thing that can happen by a pitcher not getting to a ball is an infield single. Definitely not ideal, but could be much much worse. Of course, I'm excluding throwing errors, which are such a huge deal, but that's another story, and we'll touch on them later.
Back to the issue of zone ratings and such, they don't apply to pitchers. Pitchers may be the only fielder that we can actually look at the basic metrics and get an idea of how well they did.
So let's dive in.
33 comments | 1 recs |
Swing and a miss! –or- Jip Jip Jorge!
by Andrew Martin on Nov 4, 2009 11:10 AM MST
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48 comments
Alas, poor Jorge: I knew him well...at least that's how we all felt when he left against the Dodgers with a left groin pull. Losing Jorge De La Rosa may have been a major part of the Rockies' 4-game loss in the NLDS against the 2009 NL Champion Phillies. However, at this point, what's done is done, and I feel we can look back on his season and be pleased for the most part.
Starting 2 weeks ago, Counting Rocks is looking at the Rockies' rotation and drooling over the good things they've done and finding ways to brush the bad things under the rug.
This was a promising season for De La Rosa. After bouncing through 2 professional leagues (MLB, Mexican League) and 5 MLB franchises (Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Colorado), it would seem that at least for the time being, Jorge has found somewhere to call home. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say how pleased I am that he's here.
DLR has brought electricity to the mound that we haven't really seen since Pedro Astacio and Bruce Ruffin. DLR came to the mound with a 4 pitch arsenal: a 92-95mph fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. This season, his fastball was really nothing terribly special (according to Fangraphs, as will the rest be), his curveball was roughly an average pitch, but his slider and changeup were remarkably positive pitches, and while nowhere near the top of the leaderboards, you can find his pitch values somewhere around the middle of the first page, anyhow.
No, what stands out about Jorge's pitches isn't how they rank in terms of run values in the majors, but rather what other batters were able to do with the pitches.
Join us after the jump as we look at Jorge's skillsets and how he's used them in the 2009 season.
48 comments | 0 recs |
Jason Hammel: The Man, the Myth, the Back-End Starter
by Andrew Martin on Oct 21, 2009 1:00 PM MDT
in Counting Rocks
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***UPDATE: I went ahead and averaged everyone's rankings, as I'm somewhat foolish in the original analysis. This has been reflected in the article, and in the linked spreadsheet as well.***
Jason Hammel is a stud. At least, in my opinion he is. I found that he really solidified his spot in the rotation after a shaky April. He had a bit of an ugly July as well, but all things averaging out, Hammel finished the season at 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 176 2/3 IP, and a nice friendly smile to go with all of that.
Now, what's probably sticking in most Rockies' fans mind is his first and only postseason start against Philly, where he didn't have his ace stuff. He only lasted 3.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, 5K's, 3BB, and sucked up the loss. Definitely not solid stuff.
But we all know that 1 start does not make a pitcher, especially a first postseason start, where nerves and the bitter cold may have played a part. In the minds of many fans, however, he still wasn't the solidifying force that many people would have liked to see over the course of the season, #5 starter or not. I've read several claims that he should be in the bullpen in 2010, making way for starters returning from injury, for young prospects looking eager to make the rotation, and perhaps even being bumped when Colorado inevitably trades for Roy Halladay.
See, I disagree with the notion that he hasn't earned himself a spot in the 2010 rotation. I personally feel he's earned himself the #4 spot, behind Ubaldo, Cook, and DLR.
I feel strongly enough about this to make the following claim: Jason Hammel was the best (or at least top 15%) among all #5 starters in the majors this season, and that he'd even find himself in the middle of the pack (top 50%) among all #4 starters this season.
Now, to explore this hypothesis, I pulled all the #4/#5 starters from Baseball Reference to see how well he stacks up. I included all the #6 starters as well and called them #5s. I had to make a few adjustments as BBR ranks the 1-5 based on innings pitched, which makes sense for the most part: your ace will likely have the most innings pitched, and the #5/#6 will probably have been called up/sent down and/or demoted to/promoted from the pen, thereby giving them an overall lesser workload than the other rotation members. That said, I had to make sure that Cliff Lee was an Ace, and other pitching staffs with a lot of injuries didn't have their Ace listed as the #4.
Now there are a couple of interesting details to note here. For starters, the #5 slot isn't nearly as non-competitive as you'd think. Populating the back-end include not only a bunch of no-names and veterans just there to eat innings, but also young bucks who burned their way past AAA and will probably be a #3 or higher in the 2010 season. That said, the #5 competition is almost stiffer than the #4 competition, as the #4 doesn't have quite the revolving door that the #5 does, and oftentimes will house the Livan Hernandez' of a rotation, who really kind of suck, but not badly enough to be demoted.
Join us after the jump as we see where Hammel stacks up against the competition.
40 comments | 0 recs |
Quick notes on Cole Garner, OF, Tulsa
by Andrew Martin on Oct 16, 2009 11:14 AM MDT
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7 comments
I'm far from a scout. I'm far from understanding what makes minor league players tick. I read the numbers. I see what they've improved on by what rates have improved and what numbers I should get excited about.
PF and I began a bit of a discussion about Garner when asked if the Rockies have any OF coming up the pipe. My immediate reaction was that Charlie Blackmon, OF, Modesto, would be the next impact - or potential impact anyhow - player coming from the farm. For the record, he's looking alright, good AVG/OBP mix in A+ ball.
Anyhow, PF pointed out Cole Garner, so I took a look at him.
Click past the jump for a breakdown on Garner.
7 comments | 0 recs |
Coming in with Runners On – Not our Forte.
by Andrew Martin on Sep 30, 2009 12:12 PM MDT
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32 comments
This snippet here addresses one of my main gripes about the bullpen and how it's being handled. Our manager seems content to leave our pitchers in past when pitch counts suggest it's time for the yank, and let them get into trouble before bringing in his setup staff. One of the recipients of these particular hard knocks has been our right-handed setup man Rafael Betancourt.
On paper, Betancourt's been a stud made of awesomeness. As a Rockie, he's posted a 2.05 ERA (2.14 FIP, 2.15 tRA) and struck out 23 (2.89 K/BB) over 22.0 IP (29 G), and adding 0.8 WAR to the team. He's been more or less "nails", striking out 9.40 batters per 9, his highest rate since 2005 (9.71).
However, he seems to have been struggling lately, not being nearly as crisp as we're accustomed to. However, as I've screamed in game threads, it seems he's being brought in an awful lot to face hitters who've been dumped on him from the pitcher before letting runners on and then getting the hook. Logically, you're going to perform better with a clean slate to start with. What I am having trouble understanding is why we need to push a starter already at 110 pitches to start the 8th inning when we have a nails setup man and a lights out closer ready to roll. We're paying them, how about we use them?
Anyhow. I ran a quick study using Baseball-Reference.com (btw, check out Ubaldo's page) to see what Rockies Relievers do when the situations are tough, and when they're easy. I used a cumulative WPA to gauge the situations and see how "well" the guys perform when they have inherited runners and when the slate is clean for them. I use WPA so that we can get a look on their effect on the game, as ERA or whatever will attribute runs to other pitchers and such if there are inherited runners allowed, and that really doesn't tell us what we want to know. WPA will just answer the question: "did the pitcher improve the Rockies' chances of winning?"
Don't remember WPA? Refresh yourself, and then come join us after the jump.
32 comments | 0 recs |
The Rockies with 2 outs
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:00 AM MDT
in Counting Rocks
54 comments
Nothing is more gutwrenching than having a man in scoring position with one out and then watching your next batter pop out or something like that. You want the plate appearances to be productive, because we have a guy on base! We want that guy to score! If you aren't going to drive him in, at least ground out to the right side so the runner at 2B can at least advance to 3B, right?
But see, then we have 2 outs, and the inning is practically over. Because come on, we have 2 outs. We're gonna blow it. The Rockies are TERRIBLE at driving guys in with 2 outs.
Or are we?
Allow me to lay some learning on you.
Join me after the jump.
54 comments | 1 recs |
Patience and Plate Discipline: What has it gotten us?
by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 11:00 AM MDT
in Counting Rocks
46 comments
It's the top of the 8th and the Rockies are down by 1 with a runner on 3B with 1 out. Ian Stewart is at the plate. The pitcher takes the sign, and burns a 94 mph fastball right down the middle.
THAT'S A PITCH TO HIT, STEWART
What on earth is he waiting for?
I do not spilly him taking that pitch
We've seen it so many times. The Rockies wait on pitches early in the AB and find themselves suddenly at a 2-2 count when all they need is to make good contact with the ball. Instead of getting the hit on the 1-0 count when a 24 year old pitcher desperately trying to make up for the leadoff walk throws anything that will cross the plate, we're sitting around waiting for...something even better, I suppose.
These problems drive us insane in the game threads. They destroy situational hitting, and spark massive debates between baseball fundamentalists and the Sabrmetrics crowd, arguing the merits of a season-long body of work and the "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" analyses.
Join after the jump as we look at the hard data.
46 comments | 0 recs |
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