More photos » Matt Rourke - AP

Browse more photos »

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Tom Mihalek - AP

Throw a two-strike pitch out of the zone to Howard, and you'll probably get a strikeout.

Browse more photos »

Welcome to Part 2 of 3 of the NLDS Preview, where I'll scout the Phillies in painstaking detail.   RockiesMagicNumber will finish up the preview tonight or tomorrow morning with details on the pitching in the series.

The Bats:  A

So you learned this morning that Citizens Bank Park, while a hitters park, is not nearly as big of an advantage as you might think.  That in part is why I won't discredit the Phillies awesome offensive production, giving them their bats the lone A in the National League.  Here are their rankings:

Philadelphia's offensive numbers perfectly reflect their CBP's park factors.  They are a home-run hitting team shy on singles.  So either the park factor is right, the Phillies have fielded a team tailored to their park or a combination of the two.  Either way, this is the best offense in the National League.

Let's look at Charlie Manuel's lineup, which is about as stable as you will find, as six players have played at least 155 games:

A glance at the first five, and it's easy to understand why it would be such a big boost for Franklin Morales to get his head on straight.

Bench:*
IF: RH Eric Bruntlett (.171, 0, 7), RH Miguel Cairo (.267, 1, 2), LH Greg Dobbs (.247, 5, 20)
OF: RH Ben Francisco (.257, 15, 46), LH Matt Stairs (.194, 5, 17)
C: LH Paul Bako (.224, 3, 9)
*At the time of writing, playoff rosters had not yet been announced, so the bench composition is an educated guess.

The Gloves:  A-

This Beyond the Boxscore article points to the Phillies as being the clearcut best NL playoff team defensively.  Indeed, they rank 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in UZR/150, yet they have made 76 errors, second least in MLB.

Take the jump to a detailed look at Philadelphia's lineup.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Tom Mihalek - AP

Citizen's Bank Park: where Flyball pitchers go to die.

Browse more photos »

A playoff series deserves more attention than a regular season series.  For that reason, I will be adding more information to my previews.  To make things easier to digest, it will be a three part series.  The first will be the ballpark.  Later today, the offense and defense.  Some time tomorrow, I'll post a scouting report on the Phillies pitchers, injuries and any other interesting information.

Citizens Bank Park

Image courtesy of www.ticketwood.com

Citizens Bank measures just 329' to the left field corner, 360' to the LF-CF power alley, 401' to dead center, 396' to the corner to the right of center, and 330' to dead right field.  A wild card to the park is the sunlight/shadows.  With Games 1 and 2 set for 2:37 EDT, evening shadows figure to play a part in the visibility on the field, much as it was in 2007.

The Phillies' home park has a reputation of being a "Little League Field" due to the short porches and large numbers of home runs hit.  That reputation isn't a mirage, but it's not nearly as deserved as it has been suggested to be.

According to Baseball Reference, Citizens Bank has favored hitters, but only slightly.  As I did in August 31st's NL West Report, I have average the pitcher/hitter effects for simplicity. 

Find the surprising context after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Which would you rather do? Choke away the division, or choke on Manny's dreds? How about both...

Browse more photos »

The stage is officially set for the greatest comeback within a comeback in Major League History.  No other team had gone from 12 below .500 to 20 over .500 in the same season.  Then there's the possibility of this week.

On Saturday, just six days ago, the Rockies were 6.0 games behind with seven games to play.  The Dodgers' magic number was just one.   On Sunday, Los Angeles was just two outs away from clinching the division, only needing their All-Star closer to induce a ground ball from Andy LaRoche for a clinching double play.  As it happened, Broxton blew his sixth save of the season, and the Dodgers would go on to lose three more.  

What are the odds of the Dodgers blowing that kind of divisional lead when they were two outs away with a week left?  Xeifrank at TrueBlueLA ran some numbers, estimating that as Broxton came on in the ninth Sunday, the Dodgers had a 0.017% chance of blowing the division.  That has risen all the way to...7.065% this morning.  Okay, so 1 in 14 odds are pretty small, and we can't beat the Dodgers.  The Rockies would have to match their season win total against Los Angeles in one series.  They would have to hand Los Angeles their second sweep of the season - their first came this week in San Diego.  

There's just no way a team could blow a two game divisional lead with three home games left, could they?  Has that ever happened?

Actually, yes.  Meet your 1996 San Diego Padres.  Unlike Colorado, the Padres were within two games of Los Angeles much of the second half of the season.  But exactly like our Rockies, the Padres were faced with the prospect of sweeping Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium to make up a two game deficit in the final three games of the season.  And they did, with the help of two extra inning wins.  Dodger fans haven't forgotten.  

Regardless of the fact that Rocktober is bursting out of Colorado and the Dodgers are playing like the Nationals (they have lost 6 of their last 8 - to the Padres, Nats and Pirates), I stress these are still long odds.  We'll have to match our seasonal number of wins against the Dodgers in one road series against two lefty pitchers.  There's a reason you don't see a Dodger quote recycling the Rockies' rather-be-us-than-them stance on the Braves.  It's not true.

You either have a 7% chance of shocking the world and being in the history books for good, or a 93% of making the postseason, something few people projected to begin with.

Or you could have a 7% chance of being one of professional sports' all-time choke artists, or a 93% chance of putting away a division analysts gave them in ink nearly five months ago.

I'll take the free lottery ticket, thank you.

True Blue LA have been friendly to Rockies fans.  Feel free to engage is friendly banter.

Check under the fold for the full scouting report on the Dodgers and the series.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

There's no escaping the Brewers' disappointing season.

Browse more photos »

At the end of May, the Milwaukee Brewers were 30-20 and leading the NL Central.  The Rockies' sweep in early June in Milwaukee (by a total of four runs) started the Brewers' slow down-turn away from contention.  They haven't managed a winning month since May, and they currently sit below .500 both at home and on the road.

Their offense is fine - it's their pitching that has killed them.  Only the Nationals have allowed more runs to score in the National League.  That's not a recipe to return to the post-season.

Interestingly, they have only lost one of their past five series, defeating Arizona and Houston, splitting with Philadelphia and Chicago and losing a series to the Cubs.   Despite their struggles this season, they respresent a formidable spoiler, especially if they get a random strong start from a starter.

The Rockies certainly are familiar with Milwaukee acting as a late season spoiler to an NL West team.  Let's just hope the trend sticks with Trevor Hoffman blowing saves rather than karma evening out.   Chat at Brew Crew Ball with cheeseheads.

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (2.0 GB):

    vs Florida:  Josh Johnson (15-5) vs Tim Hudson (2-1).  Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Javier Vazquez (15-9)

    vs. Washington:  Garrett Mock (3-10) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-4).

San Francisco (5 GB):  Goodbye.

Florida (5.5 GB):  Goodbye

Milwaukee Brewers (77-79, L1, 3rd, 13 GB) 

Tuesday-Thursday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Milwaukee's lineup has been quite stable this season, especially once adding Felipe Lopez. Rookie Alcides Escobar has been taking ABs from JJ Hardy, and Casey McGehee has taken over as the full time third baseman.  The other five have been starters all year.  The lineup exceptionally strong, coming in 3rd in the NL in both SLG and wOBA, 4th in OBP.  Their average is 6th best, a pinch better than Colorado, but they strike out more than any team who plays Spring Training outside of Tucson.  Milwaukee has also scored the fourth most runs in the National League this season.

The Brew's lineup is somewhat similar to St. Louis' in that there are two truly elite hitters in the middle of the lineup (Fielder and Braun).  Unlike St. Louis, it's not just The Big Two and the Averages.  There are other above average hitters, including Lopez (who has been even better with Milwaukee than Arizona), McGehee and Cameron.  Corey Hart is about league average, rookie Alcides Escobar is holding his own above replacement level, but Jason Kendall could be replaced offensively with Sal Fasano at no loss whatsoever.

The bench currently constitutes the sitting place for infielders JJ Hardy (.229, 11, 47), Craig Counsell (.280, 4, 37) and Mat Gamel (.236, 5, 19).  Four outfielders tend to hang out in the dugout most of the game as well, including Frank Catalanotto (.278, 1, 9), Jason Bourgeois (.200, 1, 3), Corey Patterson (1-for-10) and Jody Gerut (.241, 5, 20).  Milwaukee is the first team the Rockies have seen since rosters expanded to carry just one backup catcher:  Mike Rivera (.227, 2, 14).  Bill Hall was traded to Seattle for a minor league pitcher last week.  That leaves a bench void of a real threat.

Follow the jump for scouting reports on the Brewers' arms, defense, as well as the pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Morry Gash - AP

Which is the more imposing duo? These two or the two that are finalists for the Cy Young Award? This is a scary, scary team.

Browse more photos »

I haven't read all of the comments, or really even most of them, over the last two days, but I'm sure it's safe to say there's a little panic going on.  Thanks be to the Cards for some perspective.  Remember the last time we faced St. Louis?  We were 21-32 and just avoided a four game sweep to lowly Houston.  We were 3-4 with Jim Tracy and facing the top two teams in the NL Central.

Fast forward.  The second time the two teams square off is 3.5 months later, and it could be a preview of the an NLDS matchup.  The Cardinals would need to finish ahead of Philadelphia, who currently outpaces St. Louis by a half game.  From the cellar to a playoff preview.  That's a nice little jump.

The Cards have been strong since that matchup too.  After getting swept by the Rockies, St. Louis has gone a stout 68-37.  The pitching was always there, but the offensive lineup received much-needed reinforcements.  They needed extra parts, and the last time we faced them, Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday were rumored to be of interest to the Cards.  Either the FO is impressionable by the press, loose-lipped with their plans or it's a happy coincidence, but they indeed added both also acquiring Julio Lugo after being dumped by Boston.  In an ironic twist, RMN commented that he traded Holliday for Brett Wallace in a sim league well before that trade came to pass.

With the offense strengthened and the best rotation around, the Cards are a force (though less than 10 runs ahead of COL in run differential) and a good measuring stick, but the Rockies are solid at home.  That series loss to San Diego was only the second in their last 12 at Coors Field.

With a magic number of seven, the Rockies cannot clinch anything this weekend.  The Cardinals can clinch the NL Central with a win or Cubs loss.

Go make a positive rapport with Cards fans, especially if they indeed become a first round (or even second round) opponent.  Here:  Viva El Birdos

Scoreboard Watch

Atlanta (3.5 GB) @ Washington:  Javier Vazquez (14-9) vs John Lannan (9-12).  Tommy Hanson (10-4) vs. Garrett Mock (3-9).  Derek Lowe (14-9) vs. Livan Hernandez (8-12).

San Francisco (4 GB) vs. Chicago Cubs:  Tim Lincecum (14-6) vs. Carlos Zambrano (8-6).  Barry Zito (10-12) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (6-2).  Matt Cain (13-7) vs. Randy Wells (11-9).

Florida (4 GB) vs New York Mets:  Ricky Nolasco (12-9) vs. Tim Redding (3-6).  Sean West (7-6) vs. John Maine (6-5).  Josh Johnson (15-5) vs. Pat Misch (1-4).

St. Louis Cardinals (89-64, W1, 1st, MN=1)

Friday-Monday : 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

St. Louis' offense was very weak the last time we saw them.  Suddenly hitters who were ill-prepared to shoulder the load of being the main threats in the lineup can now be role players.

I included OPS+ in part to include the varied home parks DeRosa, Lugo and Holliday played in prior to their acquisition.  Using a compilation of the stats, we can deduce that Pujols is a god/machine/alien and that Matt Holliday is an absolute All-Star quality stud.  Ludwick is a bit above average while DeRosa, Lugo and Schumaker all come in at about average.  Yadier Molina is quietly having a better offensive season than his brother Bengie, who gets to bat cleanup, and Colby Rasmus is having a rocky rookie season, though he's still a threat.  There are no easy outs anymore.  They have come a long way since having Khalil Greene hitting cleanup.  And ohbytheway, Holliday is hitting .355 with 13 HR, 50 RBI and a .430 wOBA/172 OPS+ in 55 games with St.  Louis.  Someone wanted out of Oakland.

The bench currently houses Rick-throw-me-a-damn-fastball-Ankiel (.235, 11, 37), who has been splitting time with Rasmus in center.  He is listed as the only reserve OF.  David Freese (3-for-19), Troy Glaus (3-for-17), Khalil Greene (.205, 6, 24), Tyler Greene (.219, 2, 17), Brendan Ryan (.289, 3, 35) and Joe Thurston (.232, 1, 35) make up a predominantly right-handed bench as reserve infielders.  The two current backup catchers are Jason LaRue (.239, 1, 3) and Matt Pagnozzi (No AB).

Check under the fold for reports on the arms, defense, pitching matchups, injuries and hot/cold players.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Gene J. Puskar - AP

For the last month, San Diego has been as hot as a team can be without having even one 5-game win streak.

Browse more photos »

As I mentioned ad nauseum in the NL West Report yesterday, the Padres have managed to go four consecutive weeks without suffering a losing week.  Look at the roster and the schedule, and you had better respect that.  In fact, San Diego has won 10 of their past 13 series (and 12 of 16), with two of the losses coming against the mighty Cardinals.  Four of the wins came against playoff contenders on the road.

Their pitching has stabilized dramatically, but also, as with many young teams, some of the youth in the lineup has started to figure things out at the plate.  Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, and Will Venable have all been steadily improving.  You could point to their 30-45 record on the road as a big weakness, but I wouldn't let you without understanding that they are 17-14 on the road since the ASB, including being winners of 11 of 16 away from PetCo.

Then consider Kevin Kouzmanoff could finally return this series, meaning Bud Black doesn't have to use guys like Edgar Gonzalez in the outfield.  Is there reason to be optimistic?  Well, duh.  The Rockies are much better team, they dominate at home (especially lately), and Colorado has the starting pitching edge in each game.  Plus, San Diego was busy playing an extra inning game in the eastern time zone while the Rockies sat comfortably through an off day in Denver following a day game.  Rest is on our side.  I just wanted to worry you a little.  We really ought to win this series, San Diego's recent history be damned.

In light of Rox Girl's article this afternoon, I'll leave out the Scoreboard Watch that debuted last week, but I will remember to include the link to Gaslamp Ball. 

San Diego Padres (69-82, W3, 4th, 21.5 GB) 

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats:  D+

As I mentioned last time, the Padres do not appear to be a good offensive club statistically.   They are at or near the MLB cellar in batting average, runs, stolen bases and wOBA.  But even the Yankees and Phillies would look terrible playing in PetCo Park.  The team just scored 11 runs yesterday on the road - a game in which youngster Chase Headley had five hits - and their 94 team OPS+ almost makes them an average NL offense.

The return of the Kouz could help.  He has been out since September 8th with a calf strain but took batting practice and was given an "outside shot" to return to the lineup yesterday.  He did not, but I infer that means he should be back this series.  The return of the third baseman would allow Chase Headley to slide back to left.  Here's the lineup:

That's not an intimidating lineup, but they aren't really pushovers either. Judging from the multitude of stats, A-Gone is a bona fide All-Star while Will Venable is a very strong MLB starter.  Headley and Cabrera are competently average if not slightly stronger, and Nick Hundley is young an improving to the average area.  Gwynn and Eckstein are below average, but they aren't dragging the offense down as much as most lineups we have seen recently.

Drew Macias (.174, 1, 6) and Luis Durango (4-for-6) are the backup OF, though Oscar Salazar (.310, 3, 8) and Edgar Gonzalez (.205, 4, 13) are IFs that have also recieved starts in the outfield.  Luis Rodriguez (.211, 2, 16) joins Salazar and Gonzalez as IF relief options while Eliezer Alfonzo (.180, 2, 8) and Henry Blanco (.236, 5, 13) fill the roles as the typical September backup catcher duo.  

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, the hot/cold players and injuries.

Continue reading this post »

More photos » Denis Poroy - AP

Perhaps a bigger surprise than the Rockies' resurgence in the NL West this season has been that the Diamondbacks have allowed the Padres to beat them into the divisional cellar.

Browse more photos »

This has truly been a miserable season for the Diamondbacks.  I didn't truly realize just how miserable until today.

Arizona is on pace to go 71-91 this season, their third worst season in franchise history.  Only their inaugural season in 1998 (65-97) and that sorry 2004 team (51-111) has finished below 76 wins.  Just for your comparison, the Rockies have 91 losses just thrice - 1993, 2004 and 2005.  And this Arizona team was almost universally expected to finish in the top three in the NL West, with several projections placing them atop the division.

Losing their ace and cleanup hitter from 2008 for the season sure doesn't help, but the futility doesn't just come from those two players' absences.  Anyone that had Arizona 24 games out at this point needs their own TV show.

Naturally, in all things sensical, it is the D-Backs that are just coming off a near sweep of the Padres, breaking San Diego's six-series win streak in the process.  This after losing 9 of their last 10 games.  After winning their last five games in August, Arizona is 4-11 in September.  Baseball can be so random at times.

With one win in the series, Colorado will clinch the season series from Arizona, quite the rebound from the 3-15 mark they put up last season.  Arizona's pitiful 32-40 home record bests only Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City for the worst home marks in the league, and given the Rockies are 38-37 on the road, the home field advantage for the series is flat non-existent.

Continue reading this post »