By this time next week, we'll be hearing all about spring workouts and which of the myriad rotation candidates are in the best shape of their lives, etc. Normally, this is one of my least favorite times of the baseball calendar, because at this point there is little to be decided in spring and yet much is written about things that will have no bearing on the upcoming season. After all, in recent years the Rockies have gone into Spring Training with the roster pretty much set outside of a couple of reserves.

This year though, 60% of the Opening Day rotation, 3 bullpen slots, and 4 out of the 5 bench position slots are wide open. Plus, we'll get to see how top prospects like Nolan Arenado, Chad Bettis, and Tim Wheeler fare in big league camp. In other words, this spring I might actually be paying serious attention to the typical fluff pieces in the early going. After all, there are so many viable rotation candidates and the Rockies only have a few weeks to properly evaluate the talent. At the same time, fans will be evaluating the many new faces on the Rockies, identifying their own favorites for the rotation and spotting the future stars in camp.

Here are the 5 players that I'll be paying the most attention to during Spring Training:

1. Nolan Arenado

I think that this will be true for nearly every Rockies fan with a passing knowledge of the farm system. Up until now, the 20 year-old Arenado has spent his time out of the public eye down in single A. But after his fantastic 2011 season, in which he led all of the minor leagues in RBIs then won the AFL MVP award, Arenado has been made a consensus top 25 prospect in baseball. There's been talk of him getting a real shot at the Opening Day job at 3B despite his never playing above High A, so it will be very interesting to see how true that talk is.

David Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweetspot wrote about the poor state of 3B in MLB last year--and third happens to be Colorado's weakest position at the moment, so a breakout by Arenado would truly be a welcome sight.

2. Juan Nicasio

Quite frankly, Nicasio is neck and neck (too soon?) with Arenado for the best story in camp -- and he runs away with the most inspirational story. Just six months ago, there were questions about whether Nicasio would ever walk again, much less pitch at the major league level, but Nicasio's rapid progress has been miraculous. In fact, it's the most Disney story to happen to the Rockies since 2007, if not ever. La Violencia is favored to make the starting rotation, and I know a lot of fans that will be rooting for him to do so.

3. Drew Pomeranz

Of Colorado's back-end rotation candidates this year, none has a higher ceiling than Pomeranz. The 23 year-old southpaw was moderately impressive in his rookie cameo, showing that he was polished enough to pitch in the Show. Pomeranz is the most visible reminder to Colorado fans that Ubaldo Jimenez is no longer with the team, so fairly or not, he's got to shoulder the burden of replacing a star pitcher who might be the most beloved in team history. It's a tough task, and I'm not sure that Pomeranz will be up to it. I certainly hope that he is.

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I scream. You scream. We all scream, for....we all hate the offseason and want to see baseball already.

The Rockies have the potential to taste the postseason with their current roster, it seems. The key to reaching that potential is.....*drumroll*....the young rotation. (Shocking I know). As much as we write about Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz - their pitches' movement, their statistics, their prospect standings, their weight - all that matters is their production level. We are rapidly approaching the time where that is the only topic we have left to talk about (finally).

Until then,...we still get the features covering those topics. Pitchers and catchers report Sunday. While we wait, more standard offseason links...

Troy Renck blogged his response to Jhoulys Chacin's response to Dan O'Dowd's comments to Renck. Yeah. Sometimes it is difficult to know how much weight to give to a particular issue, but I think we are sufficiently down the rabbit hole at this point. It will all go away if he pitches well.

Renck focuses on Drew Pomeranz, who is confident he will be in the Opening Day rotation and stick there. Confidence is a good thing. We will see soon if he has the other necessary things. I think he does.

You're in the mood for a Spring Training preview aren't you? Joey Nowak provides a solid offseason review and season preview in depth for MLB.com.

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Top 101 Prospects Kevin Goldstein produced his Top 100 101 prospect list. The Rockies have a strong showing with 5 of the 101 prospects on the list: OF Tim Wheeler (97), RHP Chad Bettis (79), C Wilin Rosario (61), LHP Drew Pomeranz (34) and 3B Nolan Arenado (20). Goldstein notes that all of those players would get bumped down one spot, now that Yoenis Cespedes has signed with Oakland. With Cespedes sliding into the #20 spot, Arenado moves to 21. Does that mean Arenado would be worth just under $36million on the open market?

More Links After the Jump

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The meme off the 2011 offseason was "Acquire All The Young Arms", given that the Rockies traded half of the 2011 team away for seemingly their weight in cost-controlled pitching. As a result, the Rockies are going to have many young pitchers and Jamie Moyer competing for 5 rotation spots. Also bullpen spots. Also, to be the next callup from Colorado Springs.

It's always a little amusing to think about players fighting for the spots deeper in the depth charts, but the reality is that these guys have a good chance of seeing major league action this season.

Despite adding a likely 200IP in Jeremy Guthrie, the Rockies will still have question marks on where their innings are going to come from. Jorge De La Rosa won't be overworked, especially coming off of Tommy John Surgery, and as such is going to miss over 2 months' worth of starts. Jhoulys Chacin, fitness level aside, will have to overcome his 2nd half bout of wildness in 2011 if he wants to consume a top-of-the-rotation starter's worth of innings. For Chacin, it will really revolve around attacking hitters, a quality that made him stand out as a 16-year old trying out for the Rockies. Not purely in terms of walk numbers either, but also strikes thrown in general. Fewer deep counts will mean more pitches to throw to batters in the 7th.

Past those three, we've heard talk that the Rockies are going to have to be creative in managing Alex White and Drew Pomeranz' inning loads. This probably means just skipping starts, because we want them available later in the season if they're doing well and the Rockies are in a playoff hunt. Juan Nicasio seems to be a lock for the Rotation, but there's no guarantee that we'll be looking at the same level of performance from 2011.

Patrick Saunders suggests that the top 5 in the Rockies rotation look to be:

Jeremy Guthrie

Jhoulys Chacin

Drew Pomeranz

Juan Nicasio

Guillermo Moscoso

Alex White, Esmil Rogers, Tyler Chatwood, Jamie Moyer, and Josh Outman are also going to be competing for that "6th man" spot and the next available depth spot for the rotation. This is one of the best parts of having Colorado Springs just 90 minutes South of Denver, being able to call up depth on a near-whim. Should the Rockies get home to Denver and Drew Pomeranz is slated to start after making 5 straight starts, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies give Tyler Chatwood or Josh Outman a call and Pomeranz the evening off.

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El Universal in Venezuela caught up with the Rockies outfielder, who says he'll take more precaution when it comes to chasing down balls hit to the outfield this year:

"Espero que este año me fije un poco más en cómo va el score y si vale la pena chocar contra la pared para atrapar un elevado"

Translation: "I hope to be more aware of the game's score this year if I'm chasing down a fly-ball." Cargo goes on to state that sometimes it's just really hard to stop when his instincts take over. At any rate, the Rockies wish to see less of the scene depicted to the right in 2012.

*******

Troy Renck goes on the record in basic agreement with the club's stance regarding added team leadership being a good thing, and not down the road of David Schoenfield (as Brian linked in yesterday's Rockpile) or others in the SABR school that say talent is the only thing that matters, and will be the only thing that matters if the Rockies happen to win in 2012. Don't forget that according to many of these writers, the Rockies had the talent last season too, they were widely projected to win the division (even by Schoenfield himself,) despite having the post-hoc cherry picked duds such as Ty Wigginton, Jose Lopez and Esmil Rogers on the roster. It's in fact common for most contending teams to have two to three weak links like that going into a season. The Cardinals approached 2011 with ultimately unsuccessful players like Tyler Greene and Ryan Franklin supposed to play significant parts but still overcame that and put together a team by the end of the season capable of winning a World Series.

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If Rockies rebound, talent will be the reason - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
Clubhouse culture. Those two words have been intertwined with every single move that Dan O'Dowd and the Colorado Rockies have made this offseason. The issue has been debated - is it Dan O'Dowd and the front office's fault for not putting together a deep enough/talented enough roster? Were there too many cancerous players in the clubhouse? Should Jim Tracy and guys like Troy Tulowitzki/Todd Helton/Jason Giambi have been able to quell the apparently incessant moping, me-first attitudes that performed a hostile takeover on the Rockies' clubhouse?

For years, sabermetrics types and old-school types have been arguing about whether or not stuff like clutchiness and leadership matters. From what I gather from his piece, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield seemingly takes the talent-over-intangibles stance, which is generally where I sit as well. Regardless of which side of the fence you place yourself, my bold statement is that the 2012 Rockies are going to prove once and for all who's right. Guys such as Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Seth Smith - players who are all viewed as moderately-to-extremely talented on a baseball field - were jettisoned in favor of gritty/gutty (but talented in their own right) performers, and in some cases ageless wonders, such as Casey Blake, Ramon Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie, and Michael Cuddyer.

I'm not as big of an O'Dowd detractor as many on this site (or elsewhere, for that matter), but for the first time in a long time, it looks like he could be in a position of true accountability for what happens on the field. Jim Tracy might as well be sitting on a bonfire, as well. Come to think of it, the heat on the GM and manager hasn't been this intense since the beginning of the 2007 season. Might that fear of consequence motivate the much-maligned duo to get the best out of their roster?

The negative attention focused upon the team's leaders isn't the only parallel to the start of the 2007 season. That team had a couple of talented mainstays atop the rotation (Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook), as does this team (Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa). A wily ex-Oriole (Rodrigo Lopez) was brought in to help shore up the rotation after the team traded its best-ever homegrown pitcher to that point in controversial fashion (Jason Jennings). Same thing happened this year, with Guthrie being brought in after the club dealt Jimenez. And, down the stretch, the Rox counted on a couple of supremely-gifted youngsters in Jimenez and Franklin Morales to shoulder the load, as they could be in the position to do this year with guys like Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, or even Chad Bettis and/or Edwar Cabrera.

No matter the result, I truly believe that it's going to be a fun ride. Without the expectations of 2011, failure won't be as hard to handle (although for a guy like me, it'll still be mind-numbingly frustrating). However, any surprises the team could have in store performance-wise would make it all worthwhile. One thing is for sure, though: if the product does not improve on the field after all of the drastic changes made by Dan O'Dowd, we could be seeing an even more unfamiliar ball club heading into 2013 - one without their long-time GM and incumbent field manager.

One more link after the jump...

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Yesterday night, Troy Renck of the Denver Post posted a recap of the Post's sit-down with GM Dan O'Dowd.

Right off the bat, Renck asks O'Dowd about the pitching staff, and the madhouse it's going to be come Spring Training. While O'Dowd acknowledged the rotation's lack of experience in the video, more significant were his words on Jhoulys Chacin:

"I would say he could have worked a little harder this winter. I am not really happy about that," O'Dowd admitted. " I don't think it will be issue by time it gets to camp. But it has to get to a point where he has maturity and discipline and realizes that this is his career."

Renck adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies couldn't reach Chacin over the offseason and that they were expecting him to work out in Tucson.

Tough words to hear after an offseason spent pruning a franchise of players lacking work ethic and maturity. The Rockies are looking for guys to really take the game and run with it, not need prodding and pushing from the coaching staff and management.

The upside is that other sources close to Chacin say that he has been working hard the past month, trying to improve fastball command, and that he will be in shape when Spring Training comes.

Chacin falling out of good graces does have me wondering, though: how much could he fetch in a trade with another pitching-starved team?

It's an awful question to ask, but I can't help but be curious. 2012 is a transition year for the Rockies anyhow. Should Chacin remain with the Rockies, by the time the winning starts to come to fruition, Chacin will be making more money in arbitration. It's not as if the Rockies have a shortage of bodies to fill rotation spots. Who's to say that 2nd half Chacin isn't the one who'll be sticking around next season?

Am I actually advocating this? No. But I AM thinking about it, which worries me still. Beginning of last season, Chacin wasn't goin' nowhere, ever, nuh uh. He's still likely not going anywhere anytime soon. But given the near-vengeance we saw from the front office this offseason, I can't imagine that Chacin will want to see what the organization has left in their tank.

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One of the largest critiques of the Rockies offseason to date has been with the team adding starters with higher than average fly ball percentage on balls in play. The common refrain will go something like "Popup McFly has been traded to the Rockies? He's going to get crushed at Coors Field." A more SABR oriented slant will phrase the same sentiment along the lines of the Rockies "trying to stop giving up so many base hits, and they've now targeted guys who have a history of keeping guys from getting hits in other cities." The conclusion of both is that the acquisition of pitchers like Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Moscoso and Jamie Moyer will backfire on the Rockies, bringing the team another season of disappointment.

A second critique goes back to dealing off Seth Smith and Chris Iannetta and signing Michael Cuddyer and Ramon Hernandez to replace them. The Rockies lineup has gotten older, especially added to the acquisitions of Casey Blake and Marco Scutaro.

As I've noted in the past, and Jeff Aberle mentioned yesterday, all of these moves add up to the Rockies building a bridge to 2013 and beyond. That said, they have done so without harming the team's chances of competing in 2012. While the attention on the outside is focused on the stop-gaps, the real story that's emerged this winter of signing veterans to one season deals is that the team's overhaul won't really be complete until the following transformation has taken full effect:

• 2011 Ubaldo Jimenez = 2013 Drew Pomeranz
• 2011 Jason Hammel = 2013 Alex White
• 2011 Chris Iannetta = 2013 Wilin Rosario
• 2011 Ian Stewart = 2013 Nolan Arenado
• 2011 Seth Smith = 2013 Tim Wheeler?
• 2011 Jose Lopez = 2013 Josh Rutledge?

I add question marks to the last pair because while the front office has acted with some certainty on the first four switches, there have been signs of the Rockies hedging their bets a bit on the last two. Cuddyer being signed for three seasons would be one hedge for the corner outfield, the acquisition of DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Colvin for Stewart would be an example of hedges on both 2B and RF.

The major point being that the 2012 roster isn't the new team. It's the rental yacht you get while your new ship is getting constructed in the boatyard. What's disappointing to me, however, will be how many on the outside will perceive the above switches in the coming year or two as another new plan by the team, when they're being so clearly projected.

At some point in the last 12 months, the Rockies front office determined that homegrown players Jimenez, Iannetta, Stewart and Smith, along with Hammel, were not going to be part of the next Colorado success story. This contrasts vastly with outside opinion that would seemingly suggest all that really was needed was replacing Stewart, adding a 2B and then wait around for good things to happen.

Given that so many of the temporary and complementary pieces acquired by O'Dowd are so far off what's become the conventional wisdom path for the Rockies, 2012 also emerges as a fascinating experiment on team building in Colorado. We actually get to find out if low BABIP fly-ball oriented pitchers can have the same success pitching with the Rockies that many seem to have pitching against them (Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Zimmerman and Shaun Marcum were a few pitchers of this type to have success in Coors last season.) In Cuddyer, Guthrie and Blake among others, we will see an experiment unfold of whether differences in personality from the exiting players can trump similarities in performance.

At any rate, the 2012 Rockies will be worth watching, even if the team likely won't be the same come 2013.

Moyer is selling his Seattle area home for $5.4 million. It doesn't have the private golf course that John Smoltz's Atlanta pad, so I think I'll pass.

Jim Tracy faces one of the five "most interesting challenges" in the National League this year. Is the challenge not asking himself questions during interviews or press conferences? No, it's not even that special, if you ask me.

Okay, that's the end of this off-season's dealing, right? As Andrew 2 noted yesterday, the turnover on Colorado's roster from 2011 to 2012 has been extremely high, with deals big and small throughout the last few months. However, I had been hesitant to say that the Rockies had improved the talent level of their roster to a level above the 2011 team until the Jeremy Guthrie trade went through on Monday.

Yes, the Marco Scutaro acquisition clearly improved the black hole at 2nd base and the signings of Michael Cuddyer and Casey Blake were certainly helpful to the line-up, but the fact was that Colorado had a bunch of question marks about who was going to be pitching solid innings for them in 2012. In fact, I saw this as Colorado's biggest deficiency coming into the off-season.

That's why the trade for Guthrie, a proven workhorse starter (who by most accounts also fits into the "intangibles" category Dan O'Dowd has coveted recently) that has been durable in a tough work environment is very important toward ensuring a higher win floor for Colorado in 2012. The Guthrie/Hammel/Lindstrom trade, which you can read more about here and here if you haven't already, is an interesting transaction for a number of reasons.

First, it's become very apparent that O'Dowd is building a "bridge" team in 2012, full of competent veterans on one year deals, and Guthrie is a prime example of this. The Rockies may very well want to keep Guthrie past this year, but I won't be holding my breath. Given the status of Colorado's pitching prospects, I am very much in favor of this strategy by O'Dowd.

Second, the Rockies are altering their salary allocation from the bullpen towards the rotation -- as Matt Lindstrom's $3.6million will be replaced with a low salary player that should be able to replace most if not all of his production (Zach Putnam, perhaps?) while Hammel's $4.75 million will be almost doubled by Guthrie's $8.2 million. In almost every case, devoting more money to a player that is going to impact the game more is a good decision (provided that the player is good).

Finally, Hammel and Guthrie are valued at a completely different rate by the two prominent sources of WAR -- Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. According to B-Ref, Guthrie has been worth over 4 wins three times in the last five years and 8.9 rWAR over the last 3 years. By that account, Rockies fans should be expecting a 3 win pitcher for the price of $8.2 million, a pretty good deal. Then again, FanGraphs seesGuthrie's contributions much differently, rating his best season at 2.6 fWAR and only 5.8 fWAR in the last three years. So FanGraphs expects about a 2 win campaign for Guthrie.

Jason Hammel is viewed in the opposite light. FanGraphs shows him as twice being worth at least 3.9 wins to Colorado and 8.8 fWAR in the last three years while B-Ref says that Hammel's peak was last year as a 2 win pitcher and that his three year production was 5.5 fWAR. The difference is primarily due to the fact that Hammel has historically underperformed his xFIP (upon which fWAR is based) by a significant margin while Guthrie has outperformed it. I've traditionally favored rWAR when evaluating pitcher value, so I'm pleased as punch that Guthrie grades out so impressively in the metric.

It should be noted that either way it is fairly likely that Guthrie will at the least be a league average pitcher in 2012, and there's considerable value in having a league average pitcher solidly in your rotation for an entire season. It would be nice to have some other similar guys around him -- and Colorado is gambling that a couple of their myriad starting options do just that in 2012--but a lot of that depends on the performance of pitchers like Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, and Jorge De La Rosa. If those guys prove to be solid rotation pieces and one of the kids like Drew Pomeranz and Alex White joins them, Colorado may have a respectable starting rotation late in the year.

Colorado is certainly older than they were in 2011, but they've clearly upgraded their line-up while accumulating a number of young pitching options with the potential to be rotation contributors in 2012. And now, with the Guthrie trade, they may have solidified the top of their rotation as well. It'll still probably be among the worst in the NL West in 2012, but the offense's improvement will help mitigate that significantly.

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