The odds of the feat were enormous. With two outs in the 10th inning and trailing 6-1 on Tuesday, Arizona was given less than less than a 0.1% chance to win, and even that seemed generous. Then things started going right. Two ground balls found holes for singles. Chris Young walked. Aaron Miles butchered a ground ball. The normally reliable Javy Guerra walked in a run. Then...Ryan Roberts, the man who didn't have a guaranteed job six months ago, hit a walk-off grand slam. Victory for Arizona, out of nowhere.

That night exemplifies more than any other the kind of year Arizona has had. Even the most optimistic prognosticators projected the Diamondbacks to finish fourth in the division. A few crazies put them third. Yet here they are, one year removed from the third worst record in the league, going to the playoffs with 94 wins, third most in franchise history. They trounced the NL West, taking the divisional crown by eight games, the largest margin of victory in these parts since the Giants won 100 games in 2003, the Year of Bartman.

In getting there, just about everything went right for Arizona. Sure, Stephen Drew's horrific injury hurt them, but after that...

It's the year of the snake.

The Diamondbacks got career years and breakouts overflowing Chase Field, starting with Ian Kennedy and Justin Upton, who will each receive votes for postseason hardware. Daniel Hudson reasserted himself as a young front of rotation pitcher. Men largely unknown outside of Arizona blossomed - Josh Collmenter started as an obscure prospect and finished as a 10-win pitcher with a 3.38 ERA. Ryan Roberts went from 25th man to 3.6 fWAR third baseman with 19 home runs. Gerardo Parra and Miguel Montero had career years. Joe Saunders, nearly non-tendered last offseason, threw a career high 212 innings.

Even the holes and front office misfires proved trivial. Juan Miranda, Melvin Mora, Sean Burroughs, Russell Branyan, Xavier Nady, Geoff Blum, Armando Galarraga and Zach Duke were all veterans brought in to shore up the bench, rotation and corner infield, and all of them flopped. Yet Paul Goldschmidt went from A-ball last year to the big leagues this season, has smacked eight home runs in 48 games with 120 wRC+ to stabilize first base. Ryan Roberts has been a godsend at third. And Saunders and Collmenter have shored up the rotation in quite an unexpected fashion.

Kevin Towers didn't do much to beef up the roster at the trade deadline, as Arizona trailed San Francisco by two games at the time. He did trade a struggling Kelly Johnson for John McDonald and Aaron Hill, neither of whom were hitting any better in Toronto than Johnson in Arizona. The deal was met with confusion by fans in Arizona. And yet, Hill has mashed to a 134 wRC+ in 142 PA as a Snake after just a 61 wRC+ in 429 PA as a Jay. While McDonald is still worthless offensively, he's provided more defensively in sedona red than in blue and black.

Even on the farm, it has been a banner year in Arizona. Tyler Skaggs struck out 198 batters in High-A and AA, fourth most in the minors, at age 19. Jarrod Parker returned from Tommy John surgery strong in AA, then pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his MLB debut Tuesday. David Holmberg, the other half of the Daniel Hudson trade, dominated A-ball. The team drafted, and signed, Trevor Bauer and Archie Bradley, who had fantastic pro debuts. Goldschmidt and Collmenter already graduated this season to strong success.

Of course, the rest of the division played our well for Zona as well. The Giants were felled by a myriad of injuries and offensive regression. The Dodgers owners were in court all summer for a divorce and bankruptcy. The Rockies played out their most disappointing season in franchise history. San Diego won 19 fewer games.

This isn't to say the Diamondbacks are strictly lucky, though their fans certainly are. The team as constructed is legitimately talented - it has just blossomed much more quickly than anyone expected. It is a mighty fantastic time to be a baseball fan in our nations' 48th state, now and in the near future. But surely they won't win the World Series. I mean, there is no way this team could overcome the tall odds laid out in front of them....right? Right?

Two weeks' worth of divisional news after the fold.

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The NL West is a mess this season.  The Padres are racing to 100 losses.  The Rockies are having arguably their most disappointing season ever.  The Diamondbacks more or less clinched a division title with a full month left in the season.  The Dodgers' owners are locked in divorce and bankruptcy and have been seized by MLB.  Welcome to the party, San Francisco.

Less than a year after winning the World Series, the Giants' have announced that Managing General Partner and CEO Bill Neukom, former General Counsel for Microsoft, would be retiring, moving on to Chairman Emeritus status.  The news was shocking.  Neukom loved the Giants, and he had just presided over a championship team.  It makes a little more sense when the retirement appears forced.

Part of the benefits of winning a World Series is a large unplanned influx of revenue.  There are playoff ticket sales and an increase of merchandise sales, but both tend to carry over heavily into the next regular season.  And they did for the Giants.  From Mark Purdy:

Neukom, it is said, believed that this was his money to spend as he saw fit - and he did so, increasing payroll and buying new technology for the baseball department, among other expenditures. Instead, the Executive Committee wanted the money to be put in a "rainy-day fund" for use in leaner times.

Shame on the Chief Executive Officer for thinking he had the right to make executive decisions.  And shame on him for reinvesting money from a championship organization back into the organization.  Other points of contention include the acquisition of Carlos Beltran, Aubrey Huff's contract, and the releases of Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand.

I cannot pretend to know Neukom's history or give much of an educated guess on what Neukom's surprising departure and the appointment of Larry Baer as CEO means.  If the near unanimous reaction among Giants bloggers is to believed, the future of the Giants' organization on the field is in more of a dire situation than previously thought.

Wendy Thurm of Hanging Sliders:

 I share in the sentiment expressed throughout the Bay Area tonight: great surprise over Neukom's departure and deep concern about the commitment of the Giants ownership group to invest in a winning franchise now and in the future.

Golden Gate Giants:

I'm immediately worried about the Giants long and short term future. With the contracts of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum coming up soon, you have to wonder if the Giants will do what it takes to retain their homegrown World Championship core or let them walk to the highest bidder...This is a shocking day in Giants history, and sadly I also think it's a dark one. Bill Neukom was a true baseball fan and ran the team like one; he talked about wanting to win, and backed up his talk by spending the money necessary to do so. Larry Baer is a businessman first, and his main concern will be the ownership group's bottom line. The days of putting the success of the baseball team ahead of the size of the ownership group's bank accounts are sadly over.

McCovey Chronicles:

I don't know if this move is good, bad, or irrelevant, but I have a hunch. The hunch is that the Giants are going to look for profits more than wins now. They'll get the profits. If the wins come too? Gravy. It worked so well for the Niners and Warriors, the idea was bound to take off.

Giants Nirvana:

I'm not going to go out on a limb and say that this move makes the Giants' future look completely bleak, or anything that drastic - frankly, I have no idea how the team will be run in the wake of this move. But I don't like it.

Reactions from those who know better vary from franchise armageddon to at best, a step backward.  That leaves the two largest market and longest tenured franchises in the division in a precarious position.  Kudos to Arizona for taking advantage of the situation in 2011.   It looks like 2012 will be just as wide open.

Two weeks' worth of divisional news after the fold

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Baseball can be a tough game to predict.  In one area, you can feel like a genius, like you have everything figured out, only to see something completely inconceivable happen just around the corner.  I more or less pegged the Giants' collapse to the letter in March:

Brian Sabean appears to have fallen in love with his 2010 squad. The status-quo-after-success method didn't work with the Rockies three years ago, and Dan O'Dowd had the benefit of expecting some growth from the young core. Brian Sabean is instead betting that his line-up is immune to Father Time and that the Off! he keeps in his office is actually Injury Repellent.

I picked the Giants to fall to third place.  But then there's the Diamondbacks.  

They absolutely will be better. How much better is the question, and I wouldn't bet on very much.

In fairness, few saw this coming.  Obviously someone deserves credit for turning a team from a 97-loss team to a club that's one game out of hosting a playoff series.  

Kevin Towers:  The Diamondbacks' new general manager is a popular place to start.  The bullpen has had a complete make-over and now has 2.8 fWAR for the season, vs. -2.1 in 2010.  Henry Blanco was a nice addition, but other than the bullpen, Towers' handiwork has been closer to inconsequential.  He stocked the team with Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, Geoff Blum, Melvin Mora, Xavier Nady, Willie Bloomquist, Zach Duke and Armando Gallaraga.  That's a whole lot of nothing.

Kirk Gibson:  The change of atmosphere due to Gibson got a lot of press in the spring, and Daniel Hudson gives Gibson a lot of credit for that in yesterday's twitterview with Steve Berthiume.  Is an atmosphere worth a 30-win swing?  I'm rather dubious - it seems to be a go-to answer to explain the inexplicable.  "We just believe now.  We didn't before.  I love these guys."

Look closer and you'll realize both of these men jumped aboard a rebuilding ship on its way back up.  How about:

Josh Byrnes:  Yeah, he was fired, but the man made an unpopular trade in 2010 to acquire Edwin Jackson and current Cy Young contender Ian Kennedy.  The deal has worked out famously for Arizona.

Jerry DiPoto:  As the interim GM in July of 2010, DiPoto dealt Dan Haren to the Angels.  While that trade is a net loss on an MLB roster in 2011, Joe Saunders has pitched 183 solid innings.  Ask the Rockies how much that would mean.  Far more important, DiPoto dealt Edwin Jackson to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson, who has pitched better in some ways than Kennedy this season.  Two of Arizona's top three players were acquired year, each by a different GM before Towers' arrival.

Luck:  It hasn't all gone Arizona's way.  Yet every worst-to-first story contains a good amount of luck, or just the right collection of well-timed goodness.  Ryan Roberts suddenly became a 4.0 WAR player.  Justin Upton finally chose to break out, in the right year.  Aaron Hill has become Chase Utley.  Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra are having career years.  They are 23-14 in one run games.  It (mostly) has fallen better than even Diamondbacks fans could have hoped for.  

More than the trio of general managers or the field manager, sometimes, you just have to chalk it up to happy happenstance.  That doesn't mean Arizona isn't a talented team.  No one should be shocked Hudson, Upton and Kennedy are having their success...it just wasn't supposed to happen yet.  I am officially afraid for the next half decade.

Two weeks' worth of divisional news after the fold

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The Dodgers situation should seem familiar to Rockies fans. Not the off-field dramatics - no, push that aside and you'll see a skeleton of a team comparable to the Rockies last offseason. There is a young ace coming off a near Cy Young breakout season, coupled with two sluggers capable of making a run at an MVP trophy.

Furthermore, one of those pieces started to degrade in value this season for the Rockies, and Dan O'Dowd responded by dealing Ubaldo Jimenez before (he believed) his value would diminish more. That parallel extends to Dodgertown as well.

In May 2010, TrueBlueLA hosted a "Triple Crown Watch" widget on their front page, noting that Ethier was leading all three categories in the NL by a fair margin. This April, the Dodgers' right-fielder compiled a 30-game hit streak. He was an All-Star just one month ago. Despite all this, dealing Ethier this offseason is becoming an obvious move.

Ethier himself saw the writing on the wall before the season and was quite vocal about it, but this season only pushes that reality further. With the Dodgers falling further out of contention, an aging team with financial problems would be wise to get younger. Ethier will enter his final year of arbitration in 2012 before becoming a free agent for the first time. He figures to be paid well then, but it probably isn't a good use of the Dodgers' money.

Despite a .286 average and .362 OBP that are in line with his career numbers, there is reason to be concerned about Ethier's performance going forward.

The biggest issue is the disappearance of his power. Ethier's ISO of just .127 is ranked 111th out of 157 qualified MLB hitters, behind the likes of Aubrey Huff, Juan Rivera and Dexter Fowler. It is comparable to the team ISO of the Oakland Athletics (.125) and the number posted by Mark Ellis in a Rockies uniform (.123). This is almost assuredly due to lingering effects from wrist injuries, but that doesn't mean his power will suddenly return.

His left/right splits are a concern as well. Ethier owns just a 56 wRC+ vs left-handed pitchers this season, 77 for his career. (For comparison, Seth Smith checks in with a season line at 59, career at 53). He has mauled right-handers enough that he still starts regularly, but that weakness vs LHP is significant and well established in over 870 career plate appearances.

Defense is another hole in his game. Ethier owns the fifth-worst UZR among MLB outfielders since 2009, and while he owns a positive score in 2011, Total Zone still grades him out just as poorly as ever.

I have been an Ethier backer for a while, and his ability to smoke line drives off RHP still very much remains. He is a fantastic hitter still, but he won't be a fit in Los Angeles past 2012, not on his career-making free agent contract. And not when he's being out-produced this season by a similar profiled player in Seth Smith. The Dodgers would be wise to get a couple young guys to infuse onto the roster. If they play their cards right, maybe they could get a young outfielder or a young starting pitcher.

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The Diamondbacks have surged to a 2.5 game lead in the division, thanks to being the only above-.500 team in the division after the All-Star Break and the only NL West team with a positive run differential.  But with 2011 looking rosy in the desert, Kevin Towers and company aren't just focusing on the present.  After Monday's signing deadline, the Diamondbacks are sitting pretty with their draft class for the future.

Arizona ($11.9mil, 5th in MLB) - Draft Picks

The D-backs were the first team in MLB history to have two of the top seven picks, so they would be expected to have a good draft.  Trevor Bauer, arguably the best college pitcher in the draft, is already dominating at AA and could be in sedona red in mere weeks, but he isn't the pick I'm most impressed with.  That would be Archie Bradley, whom Arizona drafted and signed with the 7th pick, which was compensation for unsigned 2010 1st round pick Barret Loux.  With Bauer already locked up with an MLB deal, no one would blame them for going with a high floor, low ceiling easy-sign in the 7-slot.  Instead, they picked arguably the best high school arm in the draft (with apologies to Dylan Bundy) and bought him out of his commitment at Oklahoma.  The result is a ridiculous stable of upside arms on the farm in Bauer, Bradley, Jarrod Parker, Tyler Skaggs, David Holmberg and Pat Corbin.  That aggressive approach earns my respect.

Colorado ($3.97mil, 24th in MLB) - Draft Picks

I made my disappointment in the Rockies draft class known Tuesday.  After dealing their ace to make up for a weak farm, the Rockies spent very little on their draft, going notably overslot only on Trevor Story, and not greatly so.  Third round pick Peter O'Brien did not sign, 1st round pick Tyler Anderson was at slot, and the remainder of their picks before the fifth round are a long way off as high school picks.  It will not be as poor as the 2006 draft, but I fear we will regret how it was handled all the same.  It is worth noting, however, that the Rockies will receive an additional draft choice in the 3rd round next year for failing to sign O'Brien.

Los Angeles ($3.51mil, 26th in MLB) - Draft Picks 

While the Dodgers were under MLB control, their ability to go over slot was severely cut.  Thusly, Ned Colletti had to take safe, signable picks, which he did, and predictably, the Dodgers came up near the bottom of the league in money spent.  The disaster of a year in Dodgertown nearly got worse with the draft, as it came to light after the draft that 1st round pick Chris Reed had hired Scott Boras.  Reed did sign for $1.589million to salvage the draft.

San Diego ($11.02mil, 8th in MLB) - Draft Picks

The Padres had two first round picks and three supplemental picks, and Jed Hoyer went youth, picking four men in the top 54 picks that were 20 or younger.  Supplemental pick Michael Kelly had his bonus reduced after a suspect MRI and Brett Austin didn't sign, so the glut of talent selected in the top 60 picks might not prove too impactful.

San Francisco ($6.27mil, 17th MLB) - Draft Picks

The Giants have built their World Series Champion team largely through the draft, but their 2011 crop isn't particularly awe-inspiring.  They first turned heads by selecting Joe Panik in the first round, commonly thought of as a utility infielder type.  Their supplemental draft choice Kyle Crick has legitimate talent, even if he has very poor taste in twitter avatars.  Slugger Ricky Oropesa is an interesting choice in the 3rd round.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West, all by themselves.  Suddenly, the Giants' stranglehold on the division title is very much in jeopardy, and fans can't decide who will come out on top anymore, as displayed by Rob Neyer's poll.

Last night's victory the claim sole possession of the lead was a direct result of 1B prospect Paul Goldschmidt, who slugged 30 HR in AA Mobile before getting a promotion to the big stage.  He has taken to it kindly.  

Sure, those numbers aren't glorious by any means.  But his home runs are.  Last week, he demolished a pitch from Tim Lincecum for his first career home run in a win.  Last night, trailing by two with two outs and a 2-2 count in the ninth, he mercilessly bludgeoned Mark Melancon's seventh pitch for a 450-foot game-tying home run.  It was part of an 8-run rally across three innings to give Arizona the lead.  Watching that video, I have a hard time arguing with what was said at 1:18 of the video.  Plus, I can't help but like the guy after his feeble, shy curtain call.

Goldschmidt may turn out to be nothing but a mistake-hitting-masher.  Or he could be the future for Arizona at first base.  That's a topic that has gotten a lot of ink for every NL West team this season....except the Rockies.

Goldschmidt succeeds Brandon Allen, former first baseman of the future, and Juan Miranda, who was given the chance to be that to begin the season.

The Padres auditioned Anthony Rizzo for the role for a brief stretch of the season.  Kyle Blanks was a strong possibility to be Adrian Gonzalez' successor at first base, but he has since taken his talents to the outfield.  Instead, Jesus Guzman has taken over at first base and completely run with it.  Padres fans hope the 27-year-old is a late bloomer like the A-Gone.

The Giants had all the headlines in this category on Opening Day, as Brandon Belt made the surprising rise to make the Opening Day roster.  After a rough start in April, the Giants have given him just five starts at the MLB level, while he continues to punish AAA pitching.  He may be the best of the bunch.

Even the Dodgers have a candidate for this discussion.  Jerry Sands has been groomed as a left-fielder, but he has started at first base in 115 minor league games, second-most to right field.  If the Dodgers decide to part with James Loney, Sands could become the full-time first baseman.  

As for the Rockies, yeah, nevermind for now.  They have had the best first baseman in the division for a decade, and the combination of Todd Helton and Jason Giambi has given the Rockies more fWAR at first base than the four other NL West teams combined, twice over.  But that's now.  There will be a changing of the guard eventually in Colorado, just as there is and/or will be in the rest of the NL West.  

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The National League West has not warranted many headlines as a division this season, but the trade deadline was different, with the best moved bat (Carlos Beltran) entering the division and best moved arm (Ubaldo Jimenez) leaving it.  If you ask some of the prospect writers (Law/Goldstein/Callis/Badler/etc), many suggest the best prospect moved in a deadline deal also involved an NL West team, but it wasn't Alex White or Drew Pomeranz.

No, it was Giants' starter Zack Wheeler, who was dealt one-for-one for Beltran.  This is the same Wheeler the Giants suffered through a 90-loss season for the right to draft 6th overall in 2009.  He was ranked 35th overall in Baseball America's mid-season top 50 prospects. 

The deal is confounding on many levels.  Beltran had a full no-trade clause and was capable of blocking a trade to any team, and indeed he did - to the Indians.  Beltran was vocal about desiring a trade to the Giants, so Brian Sabean had that in his favor, as well as a strong stable of prospects.  The Giants were the favorites from the get-go, so what is universally regarded as a huge overpay was not necessary.

"It's official: Mets got more for 34-year-old RF Carlos Beltran (Wheeler) than KC did for 27-year-old CF Beltran (Teahen, Buck, Wood)." - Rany Jazayerli

Adding to the confusion is that the Giants have a stranglehold on the NL West.  The Padres, Dodgers and Rockies have not shown any interest in contending for months, and while the Diamondbacks surged last week (after the trade), the Giants are still heavily favored to take teh division.  So Sabean just traded his top pitching prospect for one bat in 3 to 19 playoff games.

Don't think there's value there after the season either.  Beltran will be a free agent after the season and cannot be offered arbitration, meaning the Giants did not acquire potential compensation draft picks.  Sure they could re-sign him, but trading Wheeler doesn't give them much of a leg up over other suitors.  

So Brian Sabean just traded the Giants' best pitching prospect for a player who has no real affect on the rest of the divisional teams.  So why I am I not laughing like a hyena?

Well, I've seen this movie before.  Remember the mockery Sabean endured for dealing Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez?  That same deadline, Sabean dealt his 3rd best pitching prospect Scott Barnes for Ryan Garko.  In 2005, he dealt 24-year-old former top ten overall prospect in all of MLB Jesse Foppert with Yorvit Torrealba for...Randy Winn.  

The top pitching prospects Sabean has traded of late have not worked out - the ones he has kept have.  Perhaps it is luck, and Sabean's cockiness might catch up to him.  I just won't mock him for dealing pitching prospects until that happens.

Additionally, it might be worth noting that Sabean recognizes the Giants' prime contending window with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner together.  Thus, he pays a premium for wins in 2011 when those marginal wins matter, while he removes wins from that 2014-16 window when they won't be the best team in the division anyway.  I don't agree with the move from the Giants' standpoint - Sabean could have acquired Beltran for less - and it will prove to be a win of a deal for the rest of the NL West, but... it might not prove to be as foolish as it appears today.  Even today, it might not be the worst trade made by an NL West GM, and no, I'm not talking about the Ubaldo trade.

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Note:  I have been sick this week, so you get an abbreviated version of the NL West Report.

Arizona (57-48, 2nd, L1, 4.0 GB)

Last Week: 4-2.  2-1 vs. Rockies.  2-1 @ Padres.

You Should Know:  Salt River Fields at Talking Stick will be used as an Arizona Fall League facility this fall.

Divisional Change:  No change.

This Week:  3 game road series @ Giants.  3 game road series @ Dodgers.

Deadline Status:  BUYERS, albeit a controlled one

Targets:  A relief pitcher, such as Jason Isringhausen or Todd Coffey.  An infielder to relieve the loss of Stephen Drew, such as Jamey Carroll.   They have also been linked to Carlos Pena, who would be a rare known quantity at first base, and Wandy Rodriguez, who would be under control in future years.  Whoever is acquired, Kevin Towers will not mortgage the future for additions for a low percentage divisional push.

Wandy Rodriguez

#51 / Pitcher / Houston Astros

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: B

Throws: L

Born: Jan 18, 1979

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Wandy Rodriguez	7-7	19	19	0	0	0	0	122.0	120	49	47	15	38	106	3.47	1.30

Transactions: Released OF Wily Mo Pena (7/24).  Oprtioned RHP Ryan Cook to AAA Reno (7/25).  Signed 3rd overall pick Trevor Bauer and assigned him to High-A Visalia (7/26).  Signed FA IF Angel Berroa and called up OF Collin Cowgill from AAA Reno (7/26).  

Injuries:  Activated RHP J.J.Putz from the 15-day DL (7/26).  Placed IF Geoff Blum on the disabled list again, this time with a fractured pinky finger.  Gerardo Parra has not played since last Saturday, when he left the game at Coors Field with a wrist injury.  He is day-to-day.  Stephen Drew underwent season ending surgery on his ankle last Friday.

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