Purple Row: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Cottagers Confidential for Fulham FC Fans!

NL West Report

Just how improved will the Diamondbacks be in 2010?

There's a lot riding on that arm.

More photos » Chris Carlson - AP

There's a lot riding on that arm.

The chic pick for most improved NL team in 2010 is almost unanimous - Arizona. After all, they practically lost their 2008 Ace and cleanup hitter to injury for the entirety of last season. They added depth to their rotation and bullpen and could get some notable turnarounds from young hitters.

In this article, I'll outline the roster locks, Spring Training Battles and after the jump, analyze each position in more detail, with a little different format than last time.

Roster Additions: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Adam LaRoche, Kelly Johnson, Aaron Heilman, Bob Howry, Zach Kroenke

Roster Subtractions: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Eric Byrnes, Doug Davis, Yusmeiro Petit, Jon Rauch, Scott Schoeneweis


Roster Locks

Rotation: Dan Haren, Brandon Webb (if healthy), Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Bullpen: Chad Qualls, Aaron Heilman, Bob Howry, Clay Zavada, Juan Gutierrez

Infield: Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Roberts, Augie Ojeda, Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder

Outfield: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra

 

Roster Battles

Fifth Starter: Billy Buckner had the most experience starting of any candidates and is the favorite heading into Spring Training. Bryan Augenstein, Kevin Mulvey and Rodrigo Lopez will more than likely get a start sooner or later if they don't start the team there. Pick: Buckner

Two Bullpen Spots: Zach Kroenke is all but assured of being in the bullpen after being a Rule 5 draft choice (though the D-Backs scrapped that plan with James Skelton early last year). If Kroenke doesn't make the team, Zavada would be pushed into a LOOGY role. Blaine Boyer has the edge for long man, with Leo Rosales, Esmerling Vazquez and to lesser degrees the losers of the fifth starter battle in contention. Picks: Kroenke and Boyer

Bench: There was talk that Augie Ojeda would be traded with the acquisition of Kelly Johnson, but it appears he'll stick around. All AJ Hinch will need to decide is his 25th man. With Parra as the lone outfielder on the bench, that might lead to an outfielder, though Ryan Roberts' ability to play OF allows for an infielder or relief pitcher as well. Twenty-five year old outfielder Cole Gillespie would seem like a logical choice, though 31-year-old 1B/LF Jeff Bailey seems to have a chance as well. Pick: Gillespie

 

 

Offense

Below, I have attempted to quantify where Arizona will improve/decline. To do this, I took CHONE projections for the projected starters and distributed value from bench players across positions they would play. This ignores injuries and other players, but CHONE was chosen in part due to generosity in projected playing time to balance that out. There will still be more ABs than can be taken, but I chose to choose the most optimistic approach for Arizona to see what the damage is. To compare how they changed, I used the positional WAR I calculated this offseason.


First Base

Adam LaRoche was brought in this offseason to refurbish a completely broken first base position. No matter what he produces, he'll far outproduce the -0.90 WAR Arizona got last season. In fact, LaRoche projects to 2.0 WAR from CHONE, and with Ryan Roberts getting some of his ABs there, the D-Backs figure to get about 2.5 WAR from the first base position. ADDED value for 2010: +3.4 Wins

The rest follows after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

22 comments  |  0 recs |

Scouting the Dodgers' offseason and Spring Training battles

The McCourts didn't do Joe Torre any favors this offseason.

Chris Pizzello - AP

The McCourts didn't do Joe Torre any favors this offseason.

With full rosters reporting to Spring Training, I figured I probably out to finally get my butt on the proverbial playing field again.  Today, I'll run through all the personnel comings and goings of the back-to-back NL West Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

In With the New, Out With the Old

Los Angeles is the second largest TV market in the United States, making up nearly 5% of the United States.  Contrary to the benefits that figure to come from that, Ned Colletti worked this season as if he were operating the Florida Marlins.  

Zero Dodgers were offered arbitration.  The most any player will be paid in 2010 of those earning a new contract or extension (non-arbitration-forced) is Vicente Padilla, at $4.05million.  That's barely half what Huston Street will make this season, and Padilla's salary would cover Jamie McCourt's expenses for her eight houses only until the last day of the regular season.

Therein lies the rub.  Whether the organization wants to admit it or not, the McCourt's divorce has severely hamstrung the team's assets.  It's awfully difficult to make positive change in the offseason if you have no change to throw at anyone.  Here's a quick run-down of notable players leaving the predominant 25-man roster and those who were brought in (2010 WAR projections from CHONE): 

         Player 2009 WAR         Player 2010 WAR
Orlando Hudson        2.0 Jamey Carroll       1.3
Mark Loretta       -0.1 Alfredo Amezaga       0.8
Juan Castro        0.0 Brian Giles       0.3
Juan Pierre        2.1 Reed Johnson       0.4
Randy Wolf        3.0 Vicente Padilla       1.8
Guillermo Mota       -0.1

Assuming instrinsic progression negates regression precisely, the Dodgers downgraded a little more than three wins in this cursory overly-simplistic glance.  After winning the division by three games.  And there's certainly a case to be made that the Dodgers will experience more regression in 2010 than progression, or that projected playing time for the bench is unrealistic.  Okay, so I admit there will also be far more moving parts and increased roles for internal players, but that would be no fun to look at. 

 

Mainstays

In large part, Ned Colletti kept his division champion roster intact.  The spring is the time to battle for position on the roster for the upcoming season, but these fifteen players can take it easy and know they will return to the same role they had last season:

Rotation:  Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda

Bullpen:  Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill

Infield:  James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Russell Martin

Outfield:  Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier

Bench:  Brad Ausmus

Additionally, recently signed Reed Johnson will the the fourth outfielder and Vicente Padilla will rejoin the rotation that he made seven starts in last year.  Provided his leg heals from a shotgun wound.

 

After the jump, I'll go a little into the Spring Training battles.

Continue reading this post »

38 comments  |  0 recs |

2009 NL West WAR: Comprehensive Review

In October, I set out on a project to report the strength of each of the NL West teams position by position utilizing WAR.  

If you missed any of the prior articles, this is where you can catch up.

This project proved more difficult than I expected, given that Fangraphs does not have offensive or value splits by position and Baseball Reference does not carry WAR  in its tables.  Thus, I had to do all the work myself.  The overall method was highlighted in the first base and second base articles, but here is a quick rundown:  1) Extract positonal splits for every player in the division from Baseball Reference.  2) Apply component park factors from Statcorner.com for every offensive event.  3) Calculate wOBA from this data using Fangraphs' formula and convert it to Batting RAR (Runs Above Replacement).  4) Utilize UZR for the defensive component, and calculate positional and replacement RAR, just like Fangraphs.  5) Sort, organize and sum.

The prior installments can be found below.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | P

For your convenience, I have tabulated the rankings of each team at every position below.  If you disagree or can't fathom why one ranking is as such (say...the top two teams in CF for example), I encourage you to check out that edition - it's all explained there.

  Position  AZ COL LAD SDP SFG
        C 1st  2nd  3rd  5th  4th
       1B 5th  2nd  3rd  1st  4th
       2B 1st  3rd  2nd  5th  4th
       3B 3rd  5th  2nd  4th  1st
       SS 3rd  1st  2nd  4th  5th
       LF 4th  3rd  2nd  5th  1st
       CF 5th  4th  2nd  1st  3rd
       RF 1st  4th  2nd  5th  3rd
P (batting) 1st  3rd  2nd  4th  5th
       SP 4th  1st  3rd  5th  2nd
       RP 4th  1st  2nd  5th  3rd
   P Staff 4th  1st  3rd  5th  2nd

The very first thing I notice in the above table, other than the Rockies pitchers kicking butt, is the Dodgers.  Every team had at least two positions that they were tops in the division, but not Los Angeles.  Actually, they took "consistently good" to a ridiculous level, having the 3rd best catching, first base, rotation and overall staff and placing second at every other position.

 This is the perfect place to evaluate where each team's strengths and weaknesses were in 2009.  That's essentially what I was going for with this series, but there are some very interesting developments after the jump.  If you're skeptical of WAR or intrigued by it, I urge you to continue reading.

Continue reading this post »

44 comments  |  4 recs |

2009 NL West in Review: Pitching Staffs

For nearly two decades, Rockies fans have dealt with national analysts and out-of-state fans dismissing the statistics for Rockies hitters, since you know, we play baseball on Pandora the moon.  What has not yet seemingly caught on (unless purple glasses blind me) is an equal amount of credit given to Rockies pitchers for throwing half their innings at least thrice the altitude of all other teams.

Granted, park effects aside, the Rockies have never had great pitching.  From 1993-2004, Colorado finished dead last in NL ERA all but twice, finishing a couple runs ahead of one team those two years.  But those days are gone now.  As has been hinted at and outrightly stated here on numerous occasions, the Rockies were sabermetrically elite in 2009.

Overall, Colorado had the 10th best ERA in Major League Baseball, 7th best in rotational ERA; so even ignoring park effects, Bob Apodaca's staff was impressive.  The starting pitchers also finished 6th in FIP and 4th in xFIP.  Due largely in part of the extremely stout back end of the rotation, our Rockies sat atop all of major league baseball in pitching WAR in 2009.  Naturally, that makes the Rockies look awfully good against the rest of the division.  The following table on Fangraphs' RAR (runs above average) shows why Colorado belonged in the postseason.  Not only are the Rockies on top overall, but they also had the most value in the rotation AND bullpen.

Team Starters Bullpen Batting Total
COL 174.6 46.8 -36.5 184.9
SFG 158.1 43.4 -39.2 162.3
LAD 137.9 45.9 -35.6 148.2
AZ 133.2 36.1 -33.9 135.4
SDP 25.4 24.4 -37.5 12.3

By the way, the Padres' numbers are not a misprint.  They were THAT bad in 2009.  For a more visual comparison and LOLPads, here's the above table graphed.

Pitchers_medium

Note:  For the hitters' series, I computed my own park effects to hitters' positional splits using Statcorner's component splits.  Conversely, the numbers in this article are straight from Fangraphs, though rounding errors apply.

Take the jump for a closer look.

 

Continue reading this post »

15 comments  |  0 recs |

NL West in Review: Right Fielders

The NL West boasted three very strong offensive right-fielders last season.  Justin Upton and Brad Hawpe each made All-Star appearances, while Andre Ethier took home a Silver Slugger.  What you might not realize is just how close those three were in offensive production last season.

With the fearsome trio eating up at least 580 PA each in right field, they represented the resounding majority of PA for their teams.  Brad Hawpe and the Rockies led the way with a park-adjusted .367 wOBA, followed by J-Up and the Snakes at .366, followed by Ethier and the Dodgers at .365.

Naturally, what separates the three teams in overall value then is defense, which proves to be quite the unequalizer.

Teams

Players

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA*

WAR

1. Arizona

5

.294

26

96

.359

.498

.366

4.85

2. Los Angeles

6

.266

34

120

.344

.504

.365

2.56

3. San Francisco

5

.262

8

57

.316

.380

.312

1.76

4. Colorado

6

.270

25

98

.370

.486

.367

1.68

5. San Diego

8

.212

21

76

.280

.366

.298

-0.39

Hawpe was so statistically weak defensively that the Giants actually passed the Rockies on the list, while Will Venable and Randy Winn each passed Hawpe for overall value.

To compare the teams visually (note the blue batting bars for Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles):  

Nlwestrf2009graph_medium

For the full player rankings, click here.  
  

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.  For team capsules, take the jump

Continue reading this post »

8 comments  |  0 recs |

NL West in Review: Center Fielders

Matt Kemp was a beast this season, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers had the best CF spot last season.  For the second straight week, Los Angeles surprisingly gets pushed to second place by a team without a primary starter.  

San Diego started the season with Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut platooning in center field, but by the All-Star break, both had been jettisoned, with the only returning position player being their new center fielder who had been in AAA all season to that point.

But don't let Petco Park and the constant new faces fool you.  The Padres were strong in center field last season.

Teams

Players

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA*

WAR

1. San Diego

6

.292

17

65

.356

.445

.358

5.37

2. Los Angeles

4

.292

24

98

.350

.472

.371

4.97

3. San Francisco

4

.266

17

79

.305

.419

.332

2.76

4. Colorado

4

.269

17

58

.345

.451

.341

2.14

5. Arizona

5

.219

17

61

.288

.379

.291

-1.18

Hairston saved almost all his San Diego offense for his CF starts, posting a ridiculous .458 wOBA in 148 PA.  His eventual replacement, Tony Gwynn Jr, had the best OBP in the division outside of Hairston matched with fantastic defensive play.  That was enough to supersede the Dodgers, who had neutral defense and just a 13 point wOBA* edge.  This can teach us two things - it is indeed a team game, and don't discredit the Padres' offense, as Petco Park can mask a lot.

All the proof and stats are under the fold.

Continue reading this post »

8 comments  |  0 recs |

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division.  When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.  

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.  

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC.  How did they do it?  UZR, of course.

Teams

Players

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA*

WAR

1. San Francisco

5

.269

11

59

.328

.411

.340

4.66

2. Los Angeles

4

.302

18

86

.407

.469

.377

4.57

3. Colorado

5

.268

20

74

.332

.440

.346

3.94

4. Arizona

6

.265

13

82

.319

.310

.402

2.10

5. San Diego

8

.250

12

76

.325

.371

.320

0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

Nlwestlf2009_medium 

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

Continue reading this post »

21 comments  |  0 recs |

NL West in Review:  Catchers

Each of the past three years, the NL West has been home to an emerging and promising young catcher.  In 2007, it was Russell Martin.  In 2008 - it was Chris Iannetta's time to shine, and this season brought the surprising leap to prominence for Miguel Montero.

With Bengie Molina leaving in free agency, youth is served.  Montero, Iannetta, Martin and Nick Hundley were all born the year before George Orwell's nightmare, and 22yo Buster Posey is waiting in the wings to take over soon.  Of course, this article is meant to focus on 2009 though.  

In past installments, the limitations of UZR have been illuminated, casting doubt on these numbers.  So what could be worse than an inconsistent/inaccurate defensive metric?  How about eliminating defense from consideration altogether.  Fangraphs' WAR does just that for catchers, and given that I have been using their methodology, I was forced to as well.  THT's Jeremy Greenhouse warns:
Do not place undue trust in WAR for catchers. How much of a catcher's value do you think is in his defense? I'll give you a hint: it's a lot. FanGraphs has unfortunately yet to give an effort to quantifying this vital aspect of the game, other than with the positional adjustment. In fact, catchers should possibly be considered a separate group of players with a separate replacement level and therefore be treated as different from all other position players.

Now, given that I have ruined the legitimacy of all ensuing data, let's look at the numbers.

Teams

Players

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA*

WAR

1. Arizona

4

.266

22

79

.352

.437

.342

4.09

2. Colorado

4

.255

18

89

.343

.415

.329

3.28

3. Los Angeles

3

.259

8

69

.342

.338

.314

2.46

4. San Francisco

5

.257

21

89

.280

.409

.301

1.72

5. San Diego

4

.225

16

52

.293

.367

.299

1.56

The Diamondbacks rode the transformation of Montero from backup to cleanup hitter to the top of the division behind the dish.  As noted above, defense is ignored in catcher WAR.  With team replacement values and positional value essentially equivalent, offense is the only determining factor:

Nlwestc2009_medium 

For the full rankings and team rundowns, click the words below.

Poll
Considering all we know financially, who should be the Rockies' backup catcher to start the 2010 season?
Yorvit Torrealba
32 votes
Paul Phillips
106 votes
Michael McKenry
39 votes
Brian Schneider
10 votes
A different low level free agent
7 votes
A different non-roster invitee
4 votes
Chris Iannetta
25 votes

223 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

30 comments  |  0 recs |


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Colorado Rockies, established 28 April 2005.

Community Guidelines

Start posting about the Rockies »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Colorado Rockies Carlos Gonzalez, center, is congratulated by coaches and Troy Tulowitzki, right, after he scored in the third inning of a spring baseball game against the Chicago Cubs in Tucson, Ariz., on Monday, March 15, 2010. (AP Photo/Ed Andrieski)

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Colorado Rockies, It Starts With The Arms

Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington, left, jokes with Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman before a spring training baseball game, Saturday, March 6, 2010, in Surprise, Ariz. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) +2 updates

Rangers' Ron Washington Tested Positive For Cocaine, Players Rally Around Him

Members of the Arizona  Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners benches rush onto the field during the altercation between Diamondbacks' Chris Synder  and Mariners' pitcher Cliff Lee during the third inning of a spring baseball game at Tucson Electric Park on  Monday, March 15, 2010 in Tucson, Ariz.   Lee was ejected for throwing at Snyder. (AP Photo/Arizona Daily Star, Jill Torrance) +6 updates

Spring Training News & Notes, 3/17: Catching Up With Everyone

More from SBNation.com >

Colorado Sports Blogs

Mile High Report (Denver Broncos)
Mile High Hockey (Colorado Avalanche)
Pickaxe and Roll (Denver Nuggets)
The Ralphie Report (CU Buffaloes)

Top 30 PuRPs

  1. Christian Friedrich, LHP
  2. Tyler Matzek, LHP
  3. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
  4. Esmil Rogers, RHP
  5. Eric Young, Jr., 2B/CF
  6. Wilin Rosario, C
  7. Hector Gomez, SS
  8. Michael McKenry, C
  9. Rex Brothers, LHP
  10. Casey Weathers, RHP
  11. Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP
  12. Tim Wheeler, OF
  13. Charlie Blackmon, OF
  14. Samuel Deduno, RHP
  15. Nolan Arenado, 3B
  16. Brandon Hynick (traded to CWS), RHP
  17. Chris Nelson, SS/2B
  18. Juan Nicasio, RHP
  19. Cole Garner, OF
  20. Chaz Roe, RHP
  21. Kiel Roling, 1B
  22. Parker Frazier, RHP
  23. Delta Cleary, OF
  24. Darin Holcomb, 3B
  25. Shane Lindsay, RHP
  26. Matt Reynolds, LHP
  27. Mike Zuanich, OF
  28. Scott Robinson, OF
  29. Edgmer Escalona, RHP
  30. Ben Paulsen, 1B
updated 9/14/2009


Managers

Me_small Russ Oates

Rox_girl_small Rox Girl

Staff

Reynolds_small Silverblood

Seth_smith_0004_2_small Andrew Martin

Sleepy_jeff_small Jeff Aberle

Coorsfield3_small Bryan Kilpatrick

67880020--bled-slovenia_small Andrew T. Fisher

Rowbot Radio

Deep_forest_small WolfMarauder