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Thoughts From Up High

The Colorado Rockies and the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline

As the 2011 MLB Trade Deadline draws near, the Colorado Rockies find themselves with a question they haven't had to answer in some time: how to be effective sellers.

Really, it's pretty awesome that the team hasn't been blatant sellers at the deadline since 2005, when Joe Kennedy, Jay Witasick, and Shawn Chacon were traded for Larry Bigbie, Omar Quintanilla, and Ramon Ramirez. In 2005, the Rockies were in the midst of the first stage of a youth movement, the first fruition of a massive rebuild, so the moves were relatively minor in the grand scheme of the rebuild.

The first phase of youth has mostly come and gone, and the Rockies are relying on the second wave of talent to keep their claim of sustainability afloat. Gone are the days of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Jeff Francis, and Clint Barmes, and production (or a lack thereof) without any real accountability. Because really, the Rockies hadn't "arrived" yet. You could excuse wasted offense and constantly disappointing pitching on the fact that the team hadn't really arrived, that the players were still growing as major leaguers, that soon, it'd all be for something, that the games would count.

But now, 6 years later, the Rockies are at a much different point. Things have changed. Now, the team's successes and failures aren't just going through the motions on route to the Promised Land. Trying to compete in this organizational model was initially like climbing a hill to a plateau of success. Now that the team has "plateaued", the success is really seeing how large that mesa is, how long they can keep that window open before having to shut it, trade off players and restock the system with young, cost controlled talent.

During the offseason, the prevailing stance was that the Rockies had until 2014 to win it before beginning the next cycle of development/rebuild. After Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez signed their long terms deals, it seemed like that window just got a lot bigger, a lot more open. The only remaining question was how to handle Ubaldo Jimenez.

So now the team sits at 49-56, 12 games out of the division. Clearly things have not gone according to the original plan. It's hard not to step back and reevaluate where the team is at this point, where the organization is.

More post jump.

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172 comments  | 

Did Clint Hurdle Hoodwink Jim Tracy into Making the RIGHT Decision?

Most baseballs analysts would tell you that baseball managers have an overrated impact on a team's record. They don't allow home runs or strike out with the bases loaded. However, the time managers' decisions are undeniably influential are in extra innings ball games.

The most interesting decision in MLB so far this season came in Friday's game between the Pirates and Rockies. As the last man available in the bullpen, Franklin Morales recorded two outs in the bottom of the 14th inning before walking Josh Rodriguez on four pitches.

Then came the decision. Jose Tabata came to the plate, tied with the most hits in MLB since the All-Star Break in 2010. The next batter was to be relief pitcher Garrett Olsen, as Pittsburgh had no more hitters remaining on the bench.

Jim Tracy had a choice: face Jose Tabata and hope he did not smack an extra base hit, or face a far inferior hitter in Olsen with the winning run in scoring position. Tracy chose the first choice, and he was burned when Tabata clubbed a 3-1 fastball off the right-field wall for a walk-off double.

A new wrinkle came to has come to light about that game though. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, former Rockies skipper Clint Hurdle ordered Andrew McCutchen to go to the on-deck circle rather than Olsen, even though McCutchen was due to bat after Olsen. Theoretically, that might make current Rockies skipper afraid to walk Tabata.

The reaction has been cackles of laughter at Jim Tracy's expense and congratulations to Clint Hurdle. It is, after all, an irresistible story. "Former Rockies manager and current Pirates manager outmanages current Rockies manager and former Pirates manager in retribution for home opener loss." Powered by hindsight, it is comical that Tracy just might have passed up facing a pitcher and instead got duped into a choice that eventually led to a loss.

Let us assume for a moment that neither Jim Tracy or bench coach Tom Runnels (or anyone in the dugout) paid no attention to their scorecard or stadium scoreboard, instead basing their decision on the on-deck hitter. If that is the case (which sincerely doubt), did Hurdle's maneuver actually make Tracy choose the wrong path?

No. No it did not. Despite the easy presumption, it was not wrong for Jim Tracy to pitch to Jose Tabata.

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52 comments  | 

Thoughts on Greg Reynolds and Why I'm Glad He Got the Call

Ubaldo Jimenez hits the DL. Everyone's immediate reaction is "crappppppppp" - and well deserved, too. After his Opening Day shelling, fan confidence took a quick shot, despite reports that it was a small, temporary issue.

Greg Reynolds gets the call to take Ubaldo's place. The immediate reaction is still "crapppppppp" - but this time, I don't think it's as much deserved.

Reynolds himself is an interesting illustration of how the Rockies' depth has improved since 2008, when Reynolds gave up 4 runs (2HR) over 5.2IP while striking out 1 and walking 2 in his major league debut.

Reynolds' debut came because All-Star Mark Redman had just been demoted to Colorado Springs after being entirely terrible in the 2008 rotation. If you forgot, this is the rotation that included Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa, Franklin Morales, and some semblance of Jeff Francis. Morales was demoted after 5 starts for being terrible. Francis was hurt. Cook and Jimenez actually had good seasons, and DLR began his ascent to being "good", but overall, pitching was something the Rockies were NOT proud of.

You see, the REASON Reynolds got the call is because they had absolutely nobody viable to come up and make a passable major league start. Seriously, nobody. If you forgot, this is the team that had Valerio de los Santos of Sultanes de Monterrey fame make 2 starts. Zero viable depth. 

So the Rockies rushed Reynolds' stunted development and threw him in the majors for 62 ill-fated innings. There's some who might say that it wouldn't have made a difference had they NOT called him up, he'd still have been as ineffective, but there's no denying that Reynolds wasn't ready. I don't BLAME the organization, per se, but it did show a certain level of unpreparedness.

But here's why I'm glad Reynolds is getting the call: Christian Friedrich is not ready either. He's close, sure, but so was Reynolds. The team has the depth right now in the forms of Reynolds, Maine (sort of), Eric Stults, Clayton Mortensen, and Billy Buckner. Your immediate reaction is "Well those guys all suck" - well, sure they do, but these guys have pitched in the majors. They know what to expect, and if they get shelled, frankly, I wouldn't care all that much (outside of the obvious frustration coming from a loss). That's what they're there for - taking innings from injured MLB pitchers so that A. the MLB pitcher doesn't further hurt himself working through it; B. So a top prospect isn't called up way before he's ready and get his head screwed with if he doesn't dominate.

Look at it this way: It sucks that Ubaldo is hitting the DL, but I'd rather him rest and get that finger healthy than pitch ineffectively through it (even further destroying fan confidence); It sucks that Greg Reynolds is being forced back into the rotation, but I'd rather it be him than Juan Nicasio or Christian Friedrich.

Another way to put it: Greg Reynolds is getting the call so that the organization doesn't have to screw up Christian Friedrich like they did Greg Reynolds.

86 comments  | 

Mike Hampton Retires - A Decade Later, How Do We Feel?

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Have you felt the urge to vomit in your mouth this morning with no verifiable cause? Before you call your doctor - wait it's Saturday....before you call your brother-in-law's babysitter who is a nurse - I can probably pinpoint the cause for you. This morning, possibly the two most profane words known to Rockies fans has been blowing up across the interwebs today.  Those words? "Mike Hampton."  You probably felt ill through electronic osmosis or something. 

The scourge of the franchise was attempting to make the Arizona Diamondbacks baseball club as a bullpen arm, and he was failing miserably. In just 9 2/3 spring innings, Hampton had allowed 12 runs on 18 hits and 11 walks. Unable to find a relief job for a team that had by far the worst bullpen in 2010, Hampton elected to officially retire today at the age of 38, sixteen years after his career started.

One decade, three months and seven days ago, Dan O'Dowd took the route currently taken by the Washington Nationals to build a team - he overpaid for a quality player in free agency. Mike Hampton was coming of 22-4 (2.90) and 15-10 (3.14) seasons, and his stuff was thought to play as well as possible in Coors Field. O'Dowd then made Hampton the highest paid pitcher in Major League Baseball history with a 8-year, $121mil contract.

A decade later, that contract is considered ""one of the biggest free agent blunders in baseball history," as DJ Short puts it. 

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Welcome to Purple Row

As the 2011 season inches closer and closer, drawing fans into a frenzy, we're starting to see more and more new faces popping up in the comments sections. To those of you who fall into that category, I'd like to extend our welcome and a virtual, but hearty, handshake.

Purple Row was founded back in 1872 when the site was entirely transmitted via telegraph and the Colorado Purple Stockings had just begun their play in the newfangled pastime referred to by some as "Based Ball". Seriously though, if you cruise back to April of 2005, you'll witness the beginnings of the website, where Rox Girl basically spent most of the time talking to herself about the games that she was watching. Since those days, Purple Row has grown from a 1 person staff to the 9 people you see below and from Rox Girl's self contained discussions to over 2600 members, all excited to see the news and share their opinions on the Colorado Rockies.

Along with growing in numbers of users and staff members, Purple Row has distinguished itself amongst the various alternatives as being the best resource for Colorado Rockies baseball, both in news and analysis. We are part of the SB Nation network, which showcases unique websites and communities covering all 30 MLB teams as well as every major sports team in the USA along with a large number of college teams and non-team oriented sports (MMA, for example). 

Click past the jump, and we'll discuss how to get around Purple Row, The Rules, what you can expect to see when you navigate here, and where you can find whatever Rockies information you're looking for.

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123 comments  |  3 recs | 

Rational Choice: the Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki extensions, and what it means for the rest of the MLB

I believe that the MLB player procurement process, from drafting, to international free agency, to signing MLB free agents, to locking players already under control into contract extensions, is a pretty good example of rational choice theory in action. Owners and general managers aren't out to deliberately undermine their own teams and their own employment or sources of revenue, and that generally we should assume a basic level of competence for their jobs and the ability to make informed decisions toward their own well being. This doesn't preclude these rational actors from making bad decisions based on the information they have, and the inferior ones will do it more frequently than others, but assuming that they're ignorant of information that is freely available seems more far-fetched to me than to assume that they've processed it along with other information to come to the decisions that they have made.

Second, because of this belief that the MLB follows a rational choice model, I think that the behavior of these parties follows the same basic patterns that we see in other rational systems, for instance, that choices or actions that prove damaging cease to be made and try to get undone. When we see a team actively try to trade or dump a long term contract within a year or two of signing it, we know a bad decision has been made. When the team is willing to cause themselves further hurt, i.e. absorbing a large part of the contract without significant or equal value exchange, as the Rockies did with Mike Hampton and the Rangers did with Alex Rodriguez, we know that hurt was so deep as to cause significant damage to a franchise and to impair the ability of said franchise to stay in this rational mode.

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73 comments  |  10 recs | 

Thoughts from the new Manager

For the record, I do not sport a beard nearly this epic any longer.

I want to start out by saying thank you. First, to Russ and Rox Girl who hired me on at first for my once-a-week column. It's been awesome to take the time to learn and share what I've learned about baseball analysis and have a forum with which to share it.

I want to say thank you to the commenters, who've made Purple Row more than just a website where I talk baseball, but a community where I can share jokes, friendships, and generally waste the time that I could spend, you know, being productive or something.

I want to say that it's an honor to be selected as the new lead on Purple Row. This site, as Russ put it so eloquently on Friday, has grown from being a small niche website to something much bigger, to a respected site that has gained attention from the Rockies front office as well as local media sources. It's an exciting time to be a part of the sports media.

That being said, going forward, I want to let you all know of my goals in running Purple Row:

My first and foremost goal for this website is to maintain the high standard of quality that we strive for. We still plan on having the number of articles we've become accustomed to during the season:  Daily Rockpiles, Daily Pebble Reports, Game Threads, Game Wraps. Additionally, we'll still be seeing the Know Your Foe and NL West Report features regularly.

Ultimately, the quality of coverage that Purple Row maintains is the reason we even have the website. It is my commitment that myself as well as the Purple Row staff continue to put forth the best Rockies coverage and analysis available.

My second goal with the website is to expand our base of coverage. Russ has learned a lot in his short time thus far running SB Nation Denver, and it's my hope that he'll be able to pass some of this knowledge onto myself and the Purple Row staff so that we will be able to reach more baseball fans with our excellent coverage of the Colorado Rockies.

Thirdly, I want to see what new areas of coverage we can expand Purple Row into. Rowbot Radio is an excellent start in this direction, and I will most certainly be interested in exploring what other avenues we can head down in this regard.

To conclude, I want to thank you all for your support in this transition. Purple Row is an excellent website with a dedicated community that brings new people in and makes it so they never want to leave. It's my hope that this never changes. Expect to see Purple Row continue to be the best resource on the Internet for Colorado Rockies baseball, and for our growth to make us a premier member of SBNation.

Thank you all again, and here's hoping for an exciting offseason for Purple Row and for the Colorado Rockies!

27 comments  | 

First Trimester Report Cards

The Rockies are 28-25, meaning that tomorrow's game marks the end of the first third of the 2010 season exactly.  It is kind of a tipping point for evaluation.  We are at the point where small sample sizes can still reign and confound us (Carlos Silva and Livan Hernandez?!), yet we are fast approaching the halfway point, where what players have done to this point is significant to their season ending stats.

Here on this offday, I have decided to hand out grades to every Rockie to this point.  Feel free to attack, rip apart, argue or agree.  The grades are partially given in relation to fulfilled expectations for the individual player, though overall production was a factor as well.  Essentially, those with A's went above and beyond what anyone could have expected.  Those with F's have completely failed to fulfill their role and are liabilities.  Those with C's have performed as expected or...heck..you know how grades work.  Without further ado...

 

Ubaldo Jimenez - α∞+: No, that grade doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but neither does Ubaldo's stat line. I just know that a pitcher who has allowed fewer runs in his first eleven starts than any pitcher in baseball history deserves more than an A++.  He is on pace to be a 9.0 WAR pitcher on Fangraphs, or 11.4 WAR pitcher according to Baseball-Reference.

Miguel Olivo - A+: Olivo leads all MLB catchers (with 120+ PA) in wOBA, OPS, SLG%, runners caught stealing, triples, overall Fangraphs WAR, batting WAR and defensive WAR.  In fact, his 7.0 runs above replacement is well over double his nearest competition (Y. Molina) and he trails only Yadier for most stolen bases among catchers.  

Matt Belisle - A+:  Belisle has exceeded everyone's expectations (well, almost) in vaulting from long reliever to shutdown reliever.  Belisle is third in MLB in reliever strikeouts, 10th in WAR and 19th in FIP, all while sporting a standard strand rate and BABIP.  Plus, he has the highest wOBA on the Rockies.  I told you so.

Joe Beimel - A:  Beimel allowed a solo home run in his first appearance and has tossed 18 scoreless innings since.  This from a lefty reliever who was still on the scrap heap come mid-March.  I think I'll take it.

Jhoulys Chacin - A:  The 22-year-old has done more than we could have ever expected to this point, keeping the Rockies in just about every game he pitches.  His performance has been crucial to keeping forward momentum through injuries, and though he's met some adversity of late, he is still second on the team in Pitching WAR, for what it is worth.

Manuel Corpas - A: Much has been written here about the validity of Corpas' ERA and whether he can sustain it.  But given the expectations at the beginning of the season, Manuel has been very impressive, especially considering the number of innings he has thrown.

Troy Tulowitzki - A-: Considering the stat lines we are used to seeing from Tulo at this time of year, 2010 is a resounding success.  His home run swing has come to life in the past couple weeks.

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Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Colorado Rockies, established 28 April 2005.

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Top 30 PuRPs

  1. Drew Pomeranz, LHP - AA/MLB
  2. Nolan Arenado, 3B - A (Adv)
  3. Wilin Rosario, C - AA/MLB
  4. Chad Bettis, RHP - A (Adv)
  5. Tyler Matzek, A (Adv), A
  6. Alex White, AA/MLB
  7. Kyle Parker, OF - A
  8. Tim Wheeler, OF - AA
  9. Josh Rutledge, SS - A (Adv)
  10. Charlie Blackmon, OF - MLB
  11. Rosell Herrera, SS/3B - Rookie
  12. Trevor Story, SS/3B - Rookie
  13. Edwar Cabrera, LHP - A (Adv)
  14. Tyler Anderson, LHP - unassigned
  15. Rafael Ortega, OF - A
  16. Peter Tago, RHP, A
  17. Christian Friedrich, LHP - AA
  18. Joe Gardner, RHP - AA
  19. Corey Dickerson, OF - Low-A
  20. Thomas Field, 2B - AA
  21. Will Swanner, C - Rookie
  22. Kent Matthes, OF - A (Adv)
  23. Albert Campos, RHP - A
  24. Jordan Pacheco, C/UT - AAA/MLB
  25. Cristhian Adames, SS - A
  26. Ben Paulsen, 1B - AA
  27. Josh Slaats, RHP - Low-A
  28. David Kandilas, CF - Rookie
  29. Jayson Aquino, LHP - DSL
  30. Hector Gomez, SS - AA/MLB
HM:  
Edgmer Escalona, RHP - AAA/MLB
Dillon Thomas, OF - Rookie
Sam Mende, IF - Rookie
Mike Zuanich, 1B - AA
Dan Houston, RHP - AA

updated 10/25/2011. 


Managers

Rox_girl_small Rox Girl

35l7yvb_small Andrew Martin

Staff

Jeff_aberle_small Jeff Aberle

Poison-the-well-the-tropic-rot_small Bryan Kilpatrick

Avatar2_small Andrew T. Fisher

Wittgenstein_small Greg Stanwood

Special Assistants to the GM

Rockies_lost_americana_small holly96