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Stacey Long of Camden Chat on Jeremy Guthrie

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Perspective is often a difficult impossible trait for a sports fan to fully embrace. When Joe SportsFan's favorite team pulls off a trade, it's a fool's errand to even pursue it. But hey, I'm a fool, so I set out to continue to be one.

In light of the Jeremy Guthrie trade news today, I reached out to Stacy Long, manager Bowser of our Orioles sister blog, Camden Chat. For most of us, Guthrie is a pitcher we have seen 99% through statistics sheets and 1% in passing from SportsCenter MLB Network. So I asked Stacey for a synopsis on the trade from a Baltimore perspective, and what we can expect from Mr. Guthrie going forward.

Without further ado, here's Stacey:

The trade of Jeremy Guthrie is a tough one for many Orioles fans to accept. He's not a world class pitcher but he is a world class human being. He has spent the last five seasons as one of the most popular and successful Orioles (not that that's saying much), and I recommend every Rockies fan begin following him on Twitter, @JGuthrie46. Affectionately referred to as Guts by O's fans, I have no doubt that he'll endear himself similarly to the Rockies faithful. He's an avid bicycler who arranged for a group of Orioles to bike their way through the city on Ride Your Bike to Work Day, he's not shy about his love for the Backstreet Boys, Usher, and Justin Bieber, he posts pictures of himself in his Halloween costume on Twitter, and he is just a smart, funny guy.

But how is he as a pitcher, you are asking? Well, the bad news for the Rockies is that he gives up a lot of home runs. He just does. Sorry. He also doesn't strike out a lot of batters, but he tempers both of those things by not walking many. Glancing at his stats without watching him pitch would probably cause most to think he's been lucky; he consistently out-pitches his peripherals and he has a lower than normal BABIP. But at this point he's been doing that for his entire career, and watching him be effective on a regular basis, I've come to the conclusion that Guthrie is simply an exception to the rule.

Guthrie keeps himself in phenomenal shape and is rarely injured. He's pitched at least 200 innings each of the last three seasons, and four seasons ago he pitched 190. He isn't an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but he does on occasion give an ace-like performance. More generally, though, he puts up a decent outing that keeps his team in the game. As you can see by his win-loss record, the Orioles rarely took advantage of that in his time in Baltimore. His fastball sits at 93-94 with good movement but he can pump it up several mph when he needs to. He has good control and when he's on his game he is capable of beating any lineup.

52 comments  | 

Rockies Looking To Acquire Jeremy Guthrie From Orioles

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 24:  Jeremy Guthrie #46 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Detroit Tigers during a MLB game at Comerica Park on September 24, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images)

As this offseason continues to unwind, the Rockies continue to surprise us with the moves they're making. Today, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that the Orioles are close to sending righty starter Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies in exchange for righty starter Jason Hammel and righty reliever Matt Lindstrom.

Guthrie, 33 on Opening Day 2012, sports a career 4.19 ERA (4.68 FIP) over 1020 career innings, almost entirely in Baltimore. Acquiring Guthrie seems redundant when you consider the "acquire all the young arms" mantra the organization has established for themselves, but the big difference is that Guthrie has hit that magical 200IP mark in each of the past 3 seasons.

Guthrie sits 92-93mph on the gun with his fastball, which he throws 62-63% of the time, and he mixes in a curve, slider, and changeup. He's never been too wild, and his strikeout numbers are comparable to Jason Hammel's, and similar to Hammel, Guthrie will need to be careful as he is somewhat more prone to the longball than desirable.

Hammel, 29, had a very disappointing season for the Rockies in 2011, much like the rest of the squad. After posting 2 franchise-high marks in the Strikeout-To-Walk ratio, Hammel lost a lot of his fastball command in 2011 and was demoted to the bullpen later in the season. Hammel claims the time in the pen gave him a new perspective on pitching, but it seems the Rockies weren't willing to bet on that.

Almost more confusing is the fact that reliever Matt Lindstrom went along with him. After being acquired this offseason and immediately signed to a 2-year deal with an option on a 3rd. Lindstrom didn't let the Rockies down, either, notching a 3.00 ERA with a 2.57 K/BB ratio in what was arguably the best season of his career. Possibly a sell-high point, but the Rockies bullpen is weakened after moving Lindstrom.

654 comments  | 

Rockies Extend Matt Belisle Through 2013

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As announced by the Rockies' today on twitter, the Rockies have decided to keep Matt Belisle around a little longer:

#Rockies and RHP Matt Belisle agree on contract extension thru 2013, with mutual option for 2014.

This is becoming Dan O'Dowd's trademark move. Last offseason, Belisle avoided arbitration and agreed to a 1-year, $2.35 million deal. Months later, Dan O'Dowd offered Belisle a one year extension worth $3.775 million. Already under contract for 2012, Belisle agreed to the recycled annual extension strategy.

Rafael Betancourt has gotten the same treatment in recent seasons. Both relievers have chosen to trade the opportunity cost of cashing in on a Matt Guerrier type deal for a rolling cycle of two year guarantees. In return, the Rockies get roster certainty in their bullpen, keeping hold of relievers who have proven capable to pitching well at Coors Field.

With this deal, the Rockies now have control over Betancourt, Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds and Matt Lindstrom for the next two seasons.

Danny Knobler reports that the deal is worth approximate $4.3million, though it has not been released yet how that is broken down.

Matt Belisle has hit .333 with a .357 OBP in the last two years. His two doubles in those seven plate appearances trail only Esmil Rogers' three for most on the pitching staff.

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Rockies trade Seth Smith for Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso

After weeks of trade speculation surrounding Seth Smith and just a few hours after inking the outfielder to a 2012 contract, the Rockies have traded him to the Oakland Athletics for a pair of starting pitchers, Josh Outman and Guillermo Moscoso.

Outman spent the early part of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and eventually went 5-8 with a 3.70 ERA for Oakland, while Moscoso had a 3,38 ERA in 21 starts for the A's.

I've been suggesting for some time that the Rockies look into Outman as a possible fit, the left hander has had very solid groundball rates in the minors and seemed to be a possible bargain with a crowded A's rotation. He should provide stiff competition to Kevin Slowey for the final spot in the Rockies rotation this Spring, or alternatively could allow for further minor league seasoning of rookie Drew Pomeranz. That the Rockies were also able to add Moscoso, a more FB oriented pitcher with sharp movement on his pitches, particularly a cut fastball, that could play up in the bullpen or perhaps be used in another deal seems to be a bit of a coup for Dan O'Dowd. With these two additions, the Rockies rotation for 2012 would seem to be pretty much set (well, set as far as who will be competing for the five slots) and the team can focus on filling out its bullpen or looking for a fit at second base.

UPDATE: It seems the Rockies might be reversing that above plan, with Moscoso perhaps set to compete for the rotation slot and Outman being looked at as a bullpen arm... or maybe not, says O'Dowd via Troy Renck:

"We will have a raging competition in spring for spots''

475 comments  | 

Rockies Ink Free Agent Michael Cuddyer to 3 years, $31.5M

Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman broke the news this morning that the Rockies did, in fact, make a splash in the 2011 Free Agency Market by agreeing to terms with Michael Cuddyer.

The word last night was that Cuddyer was being offered 3 years, $27M. It would seem the Rockies budged. Whether or not that means they didn't have that figure in mind the whole time is left to be discovered.

Cuddyer, 33 by Opening Day, 2012, has played primarily RF for the Minnesota Twins over the course of his career, but has been known to make the jaunt over to the hot corner from time to time, along with playing a little 1B in relief of Justin Morneau.

Over his 11 years in Minny, Cuddyer has posted a .272/.343/.451 line which equates to a 111 wRC+ (or 11% above average). Those overall numbers are a bit misleading, as every full, healthy season Cuddyer has played in has typically produced better results (3 seasons above a 120 wRC+, 4 above 110 wRC+). His 3 most recent seasons have shown just shy of a 120 wRC+, which falls somewhere between the seasons Todd Helton and Seth Smith had.

How this will impact the team going forward is the next big question. Does a Cuddyer signing necessitate a Seth Smith trade, or will they keep Smith and use Cuddyer primarily at 3B, platooning in RF with Smith, and spelling Helton and Giambi while they refill their old man medicine prescriptions?

For as much as I've griped about landing Cuddyer, if they were to keep Smith in some form (platoonplatoonplatooncomeonjustdoit), you'd be keeping a generally plus bat in the lineup in Smith and then adding a plus bat to a position that was terribly negative last season (3B). Replacing Smith in RF looks to be a marginal upgrade for a $30M+ Pricetag (minus Smith's salary, of course), but replacing Ian Stewart/Kevin Kouzmanoff/Ty Wigginton at 3B would be a sizable upgrade, offensively speaking. Defensive issues are yet to be covered, but I'm going to bite my tongue until this offseason has finished unfolding.

775 comments  | 

Rockies Trade Ian Stewart, Casey Weathers to Cubs for Tyler Colvin, DJ LeMahieu

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 29:  Ian Stewart #9 of the Colorado Rockies is congratulated by Jason Hammel #46 after Stewart scored during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on July 29, 2011 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

The Rockies have traded two former first round draft picks, third baseman Ian Stewart and right hand minor league reliever Casey Weathers, to the Cubs for another pair of once promising prospects, outfielder Tyler Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu according to an Internet report from Troy Renck.

After a disappointing 2011 season, the Rockies have overhauled the young roster that won the 2009 Wild Card, already sending out catcher Chris Iannetta and reliever Huston Street in earlier off season deals, not to mention ace Ubaldo Jimenez during the summer to Cleveland.

The 23 year old LeMahieu hit .250 in a limited 60 at bat debut with the Cubs in 2011, after batting .317 in three seasons in the minor leagues. He was a second round choice of the Cubs in 2009 out of Louisiana State. The 26 year old Colvin was the Cubs first round pick of the 2006 draft and had a breakout .254/.316/.500 season in 2010 before getting speared by a broken bat of Wellington Castillo in an infamous September incident. He recovered physically, but went through a .150/.204/.306 season with the Cubs who grew disenchanted that he'd be able to regain his lost stature.

After the Cubs signed David Dejesus earlier in the off season, Colvin became expendable and eventually talks began to circulate with the Rockies around Stewart about moving the two fallen prospects in a challenge trade.

387 comments  | 

Rockies to trade PTBNL for Kevin Slowey

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 26: Kevin Slowey #59 of the Minnesota Twins reacts to giving up a solo home run to Mike Moustakas #8 of the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning on September 26, 2011 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

The Colorado Rockies have agreed with the Minnesota Twins to trade for right hand pitcher Kevin Slowey, according to Thomas Harding. Slowey, 27, had his best season with Minnesota in 2008 when he went 12-11 and had a 3.99 ERA with a 3.96 xFIP, last season his ERA balooned to 6.67, but his peripheral statistics were solid enough to suggest that he was more of a 4.36 range pitcher according to x-FIP. It seems the Rockies are taking a buy low opportunity.

UPDATE:

Troy Renck confirms and reports that:

Rockies will acquire Slowey for player to be named so won't be completed until after Thursday's Rule V draft

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Rockies close to signing Ramon Hernandez, trade Chris Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 14:  Ramon Hernandez #55 of the Cincinnati Reds hits a home run against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on September 14, 2011 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter first reported this:

Source: #Rockies close to signing R. Hernandez to two-year deal, sending Iannetta to the Angels. Teams checking medicals. #MLB

and we have further confirmation from Troy Renck:

Confirmation that Hernandez coming to Rockies... Chatwood should be coming back from Angels.

Apparently we're just awaiting the fine print and last okay.

UPDATE:

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Hernandez deal is for 2 years, $6.5 million (see below.) Iannetta would have cost a bit more if the Rockies were to keep him for two seasons. They get a similar catcher plus a rotation arm for about the same cost in salary.

UPDATE 2:

The Rockies official Twitter confirms that the Iannetta for Chatwood trade is complete.

UPDATE 3:

The Rockies have agreed to a $6,250,000 two year deal with Ramon Hernandez pending a physical according Rafael Rojas

468 comments  | 


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Top 30 PuRPs

  1. Drew Pomeranz, LHP - AA/MLB
  2. Nolan Arenado, 3B - A (Adv)
  3. Wilin Rosario, C - AA/MLB
  4. Chad Bettis, RHP - A (Adv)
  5. Tyler Matzek, A (Adv), A
  6. Alex White, AA/MLB
  7. Kyle Parker, OF - A
  8. Tim Wheeler, OF - AA
  9. Josh Rutledge, SS - A (Adv)
  10. Charlie Blackmon, OF - MLB
  11. Rosell Herrera, SS/3B - Rookie
  12. Trevor Story, SS/3B - Rookie
  13. Edwar Cabrera, LHP - A (Adv)
  14. Tyler Anderson, LHP - unassigned
  15. Rafael Ortega, OF - A
  16. Peter Tago, RHP, A
  17. Christian Friedrich, LHP - AA
  18. Joe Gardner, RHP - AA
  19. Corey Dickerson, OF - Low-A
  20. Thomas Field, 2B - AA
  21. Will Swanner, C - Rookie
  22. Kent Matthes, OF - A (Adv)
  23. Albert Campos, RHP - A
  24. Jordan Pacheco, C/UT - AAA/MLB
  25. Cristhian Adames, SS - A
  26. Ben Paulsen, 1B - AA
  27. Josh Slaats, RHP - Low-A
  28. David Kandilas, CF - Rookie
  29. Jayson Aquino, LHP - DSL
  30. Hector Gomez, SS - AA/MLB
HM:  
Edgmer Escalona, RHP - AAA/MLB
Dillon Thomas, OF - Rookie
Sam Mende, IF - Rookie
Mike Zuanich, 1B - AA
Dan Houston, RHP - AA

updated 10/25/2011. 


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