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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

Pregame Discussion- Mohr or less a rotation/trade post.

I'm going to respond to Tracy Ringolsby's column in the Rocky Mountain News as a sign of respect because really I like Ringolsby and Etkin the most out of the Denver baseball media, they remind me of the cattle trail cook characters in old Western movies who are both filled with hokey wisdom that's valuable and hokey wisdom that's not so valuable. Most of Ringolsby's quarterly report falls into the valuable category, but I'd take exception to two things.

First he doesn't put enough of the onus of the Rockies poor start on the poor performance of our "veteran" outfielders. Wilson we've covered, Holliday is touched on frequently but our "big" free agent signing of the off-season, Dustan Mohr, also needs to shoulder some of the responsibility. Granted, Mohr wasn't the Rockies' first choice, as they tried half heartedly to lure David Dellucci from the Rangers but wouldn't go to two plus seasons with the contract we offered. Dellucci ended up signing with the Rangers for two years at $1.8 million or the exact same per year value of what we wound up giving Mohr for one year. Would we rather have a Dellucci/Holliday split in left and Hawpe manning right field alone right now? You bet.

Second, as far as Jason Jennings, I kind of touched on this in my Saturday pregame, but let's just look at things from a straight up gut level as they stand at the moment.
First, let's look at the rotation as it stands right now:

Top Pair
 Shawn Chacon
 Jeff Francis

Bottom Group
 Jason Jennings
 Joe Kennedy
 Jamey Wright

In a month it will look a little different:

Top Pair
 Shawn Chacon
 Jeff Francis

Wildcard:
 Aaron Cook

Bottom Pair:
 J. Jennings
 J. ?

About the only thing certain is the first initial, although it's assumed that the odd man out will either be Jamey Wright or Joe Kennedy (probably Wright). Now, look at that rotation and tell me that it could be the rotation of a team that makes it to the playoffs. Maybe if we had a Boston or St. Louis lineup backing it up, it's conceivable, but we don't so forget about it. I leave Aaron Cook floating in the middle because to be truthful, we just don't know how he'll come back. We want to assume he'll return quickly to the form he left in but that's just because we're a fangirl (apparently a royal fangirl with the first person plural pronouns) and not based on any real knowledge of the stuff. What if he doesn't?

Now, for our rotation in some future place of contention, based solely on what we have now in the system:

  1. Ubaldo Jiminez? Juan Morillo?
  2. Francis
  3. Cook
  4. Chacon
  5. Jennings? Kennedy? Player X?
Francis hasn't shown that he has the stuff of a true ace to lead the staff, but to be honest, we might not need him to be even if Morillo or Jiminez don't pan out. And there's the thing. Right now we have to assume that they won't pan out. There are several reasons for this: because they are so low in the minors, because they have a history of wildness or injury, because even if they were healthy control freaks we couldn't be sure it would last (remember Rick Ankiel?) We can't assume anything about when or if these supposed future aces will reach the majors for our team, and that once there that they will measure up to their potential. If they do, great, but I would rather have more baskets to put my eggs in should they not make it.

Anyway you slice it therefore, our rotation depth is extremely thin, our future isn't as secure as we would like it to be, and the only way to make it more secure is to build enough quality depth in the system so that when the inevitable something goes wrong, we always have a next best option waiting. If we stack our staff with enough young number twos or threes, we won't need a number one. How do we get those twos or threes if they're not already waiting in the system? The short answer is we trade with contending teams that have them to spare. Pitching rich systems like Atlanta, the Cubs or Dodgers for instance that have needs that maybe we can meet, does a Jason Jennings trade meet those team's needs? Maybe not, but if it does, I'm just suggesting we take a long hard look at what they have to offer before dismissing it out of hand.

Which brings me to my last point, what exactly is it that we're still waiting for Jason Jennings to become that he hasn't already shown he is? We know he's a consistent twelve plus game winner that has slow starts and heats up as the season goes on. We know that as other pitchers start wearing down he gets stronger and we know that his sinker can be devastating at times or his lack of it can render us devastated. Ringolsby takes a gloomy approach to the trade, lamenting that if Jennings becomes good we'll be sorry, but the only reason that will be true is if we fail to get anything valuable offered in return (everybody blasted the Marlins trade that sent Derrek Lee to Chicago as a fire sale, but Dontrelle Willis turned out all right [editor's note, Willis was actually part of the Matt Clement to the Cubs deal as pointed out in the comments- thnx to Mark D] and all it took was Victor Zambrano to pry Scott Kazmir from the Mets last year) in which case, the answer is simple: don't trade him. Just don't turn down getting a brighter hope for the future because we're still waiting for the lesser hope we have to materialize.

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Nice entry.
The columnist seems to be fearful that Jennings will become another Jason Schmidt once lifted from Coors.  Possible, but highly doubtful.  Jennings hasn't shown that he is anything more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

by Rox Fan in TN on May 23, 2005 5:02 PM MDT reply actions  

Innings Pitched at Coors Field
Jennings has pitched a lot of innings the last few years at Coors Field.  While the history window is short, it suggests that pitchers that pitch a lot of innings at altitude drop off their effectiveness very fast.  I believe tired legs is one proposed reason.

Could Jennings be an ace some where else?  I doubt it.  A solid #3 guy?  Maybe....Probably.  But I think he's as good as he will be here which isn't all that good and any Darren Oliver, Shawn Estes fill-in could do that good.  Which means he's more valuable to the Rockies for a trade for some hitting prospects.  Especially if one of the the prospects is a power hitting Catcher.(do they exist anymore?)

But his goes with my theory How-to build the Rockies into a contender.  I would have the best hitters I could find (mostly power hitters, but some slap contact speed guys for the road slumps)...and the cheapest pitchers...some home grown until they flame out or get service time and cost money where I trade them for more hitting prospects, & some reclimation free agents.  

Redhawk

by Redhawk on May 24, 2005 4:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

Dontrelle Willis
was traded (with other guys) for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. The Marlins traded Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi.

And I don't think Jennings is ever going to be a rotation guy on a good team. Sorry.

by Mark D on May 23, 2005 8:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Mark's right on this one
... but it should also be pointed out that Florida flipped Hee Seop for Paul Lo Duca... a trade I'd take most days.

Byron Clarke
TheCubdom
Goat Riders

by thecubdo on May 23, 2005 11:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Oops, thanks for the correction
I actually wrote about the Clement+Alfonseca for Jorgensen + Cueto + Tavarez + Willis trade a couple of weeks ago when I previewed the Marlins, but in my haste to post this I got it jumbled with actually two other Marlins trades I was thinking about, the Lee for Choi trade and the Al Leiter to the Mets for AJ Burnett from their earlier fire sale.

It's interesting that you should say that about Jennings, because at the time of the Clement deal a lot of pundits were saying the exact same thing about him. Honestly, when I look at the rotation the Cardinals put up last year, the bottom of the Braves rotation -Leo Mazzone's dark arts notwithstanding- of the last couple of years (and this year with Thomson and Hampton on the DL, do you think they would mind having one more former Rockie as a backup?)  the Angels, the Giants, even the bottom of the Twins staff, I see a lot of Jenningsesque starters out there. I wouldn't ever expect him to be any sort of leader on a staff, but he's as durable as anything (we both folow Mark Prior, we should know that this has some value) and on any league average offensive team he should pick up more wins. You might be right about his future performance, but I'm guessing that this year with the dearth of starters available via trade, Jennings is more valuable as a commodity than we realize (unlike Preston Wilson, who seems to be worth less) and that's why I think we pull the trigger now.

by Rox Girl on May 24, 2005 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

well...
If somebody like the Red Sox were to trade for Jennings, its seems he'd wind up more as a swingman or insurance starter than someone taking the ball twice a week. My point isn't that Jennings is worthless, just that generally teams counting on players of his ilk to be capital "S" Starters aren't very good.

And the Rockies probably won't get better in the length of his career with them, either.

by Mark D on May 24, 2005 1:12 PM MDT reply actions  

Even better to make the trade today.
I actually agree with the assessment of our future with him, and that's why I thought to bring this up in the first place. It's just I disagree with your point about other teams. Boston did have an interest at least briefly in him last year, apparently, if Peter Gammons is to be believed and he was just as bad if not worse. I still bet some contending team would be willing to throw him out there twice a week, Jose Lima-like just to see what he's got and give us something valuable for that rare opportunity to boot. I think teams will cut him slack because of Coors and think they can turn him around quickly. And then he could be the next Jason Schmidt or the next Seth Etherton for all I'm interested in. I only want to get the goods while we still can from him because as you say, the Rockies aren't going to be getting better as long as he's one of the front five.

by Rox Girl on May 24, 2005 1:27 PM MDT up reply actions  

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