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Draft Discussion - Maybin? Maybe so.

All my peeps are saying that the Rockies are keen on Luke Hochevar and Mike Pelfrey (yes they'd like both, but no, actually they feel one or the other will be selected by Milwaukee or Toronto) first and then Jeff Clement as the fallback, but that they haven't made up their mind for certain and are in fact secretly hoping that Cameron Maybin slips past Seattle which could very likely drop him to the Rockies' seven spot.  They like Clement a lot but feel the two college arms are about equal in potential to him and all things being level would prefer the pitching. But that's where the trickiness comes in: things might not actually be that level. Everybody says it makes no difference that Boras is advising the two pitchers but I seriously am beginning to wonder about that as I try to read between the lines of what I'm hearing.

Boras has pushed the Angels to the brink with Jered Weaver (this is the negotiation I hear brought up more than the Drew/D-backs thing because there seems to be an underlying assumption that the D-backs front office is as much at fault as Boras in the hold-up there) and even if Weaver signs in the next week, the Rockies are hesitant to get into a long protracted contract negotiation ala the Matt Harrington debacle of a few years ago. So despite hearing "Hochevar, Hochevar, Pelfrey," my gut still says Clement unless Maybin drops. I did hear the Jay Bruce name this last time talking, and also to my chagrin Troy Tulowitzky was brought up as an interest, but the Rockies feel that he will go to the Brewers, the Jays will take one of the pitchers (or vice versa) and Seattle will take Maybin.

One thing is that nobody knows for sure what the Mariners are thinking although my sources think they are probably keying in on Tulo or Maybin and according to BA, Zimmerman also. The Brewers and Jays are both supposedly prioritizing in the folowing order: shortstop - pitcher - outfield, and you can fill in the names yourself (although with the Jays, make sure you add Ricky Romero to the pitcher group). So here is my updated top ten picks of round one:

  1. Arizona - Justin Upton
  2. Kansas City - Alex Gordon
  3. Seattle - Troy Tulowitzky
  4. Washington - Ryan Zimmerman
  5. Milwaukee - Luke Hochevar
  6. Toronto - Stephen Drew
  7. Colorado - Cameron Maybin
  8. Tampa Bay - Wade Townsend
  9. New York Mets - Jeff Clement
  10. Detroit - Craig Hansen
I really think Maybin's going to drop from everything I'm hearing. KC is going to bite a bitter pill and sign Gordon for above slot to placate their fans despite the rumors otherwise because they've kind of backed themselves into a corner with their protests. Seattle then chooses a shortstop, Washington's pick -typical of their homecity- is one of the worst kept secrets in baseball, and then I uncertainly have Milwaukee drawing the first Boras client since Tulo's off the board, I think the Jays will then go SS anyway and take last year's best player available (they've had scouts at several Camden games already), and that's how Maybin falls to our spot.

I'm told that if the Rockies do go with another position player at the top that they will then  take the best pitchers available with their next two and maybe three picks - probably at least one lefthander, before dipping back into the position player pool, which goes against what their stated draft position is, but that's what I'm hearing.

0 recs | Comment 9 comments

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One more note about Toronto
Like most teams they say they will take the best player available but they are really keying in on the shortstops and pitchers and nobody I talked to seems to think they will take Maybin as long as one of their top three pitcher choices (Hochevar, Pelfrey, or Romero) or either of the two shortstops, Tulowitzky or Drew are still available. The chances of all five being gone by the Toronto pick, particularly Romero, are nil, so you see why I have my optimism.

by Rox Girl on May 24, 2005 11:41 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It all seems very reasonable with Maybin
And it would make it a whole lot easier when I conduct my amateur draft in MVP Baseball and edit the player's name.

MLB.com's piece on Ryan Braun says interest in him first starts with the Rockies at 7, but that's probably a smokescreen. I like what he brings but his swing isn't that great.

If we do get Maybin, I'd like to see Lance Broadway taken but I think some better pitchers will be around when our picks come up.

Oh, and any reason as to why you spell Tulowitzki with a "y" at the end?

by Russ on May 24, 2005 12:04 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I saw that on Braun, but didn't hear it from
any of the three people I talked to (all three don't want me mentioning their names, although only one is a solid team insider, the other two are either affiliated with other squads and/or independent.) To be honest, I didn't think to bring his name up in the conversations either to get a gauge of our interest, but to me Braun is just another one of those players that is talented enough to go high but will probably slip because of some of the oddities of this draft. Maybe Mayo has a better source than me, but I don't see Braun getting picked over either of the two pitchers, Maybin or Clement.

by Rox Girl on May 24, 2005 1:12 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Braun
The Brewers are supposedly interested in taking Braun at #5 if Gordon and Zimmerman are both off the board (which it looks as though both will be.)  On the other hand, Drew may sign with the Diamondbacks, so he may be out of the picture.

Baseball America has Maybin as the #3 overall player available in the draft, but it looks like he may still be available when the Rockies pick.  Also, the Rox have four of the first 57 picks in the draft due to compensation for Vinny Castilla (got a supplemental pick and the Nationals' second-round pick, in addition to their own.)

by Rox Fan in TN on May 25, 2005 7:44 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Drew/Weaver
Two of the people I had talked to said that it looked like Weaver would sign at the last minute but Drew would re-enter barring a cave by the D-backs to meet Boras's demands. Things got pretty sour once Moorad took over and both sides have tried to make a good face of it publicly as it's important for both the team and Boras for future and current clients of his to know they can deal with the D-backs, but it's unlikely that Drew will play ball taking a lesser offer than they feel they already had in place.

by Rox Girl on May 25, 2005 8:53 AM MDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder. . .
Imagine if Mike Rizzo takes Craig Hansen #1. That, I think, would most assuredly give us Maybin.

No way Upton falls past 2 in that scenario. Or maybe KC would be stuid enough to pass up Upton.

by Russ on May 24, 2005 3:48 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You never know with KC, I think they still might
grab Gordon in that scenario since they figure he'd be the easier sign. It will only happen that way though if Lyon gets a serious injury before draft day, nothing else would pry the D-Backs off Upton.

by Rox Girl on May 24, 2005 4:06 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Draft...
According to Baseball America, barring some unforeseen circumstances the first four picks will be Upton, Gordon, Tulowitzky, and Zimmerman.  KC is likely to grab Gordon just because they've "kind of backed themselves into a corner" (BA's words, not mine) even though their organization is fairly stacked at third with Teahen and Butler (who's probably a DH.)  Gordon is also semi-local.

I'm wondering if the Rox should take Hansen given our bullpen woes, and the fact that if he signs quickly he could be a September callup.  Of course, considering Scotty B. is his agent, a quick signing is unlikely.

by Rox Fan in TN on May 24, 2005 10:43 PM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, now that Stephen Drew signed, I better
change Toronto's pick to Ricky Romero. I doubt they would have taken Drew anyway even if he was available.

by Rox Girl on Jun 1, 2005 11:55 AM MDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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