More on the Jennings Deal: Grumblings from around the blogosphere.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 6:55 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 18 comments

Let's start out with the kind of funny and stubborn Mark Donohue, who at Bad Altitude "still hate(s) this deal."

Why is this kind of funny? Well, let's take a trip down memory lane. I hate to do this to you Mark, but if you insist on posting twice about how much you hate this deal...:

Do the Red Sox have interest in Jason Jennings? Sunday's Boston Herald says the team looked into getting Colorado's righty starter last year, and they might go after him at the 2005 trade deadline as well. It's hard to imagine the Red Sox needing more starting pitching, as they will have six rotation-worthy guys once Curt Schilling and David Wells return to health, but if Boston wants to throw the Rockies a young arm or two, who are we to say no?

The Red Sox farm system isn't great but they do have some arms. Lefty Jon Lester is probably more than Jennings is worth, but further down Boston has the intriguing Jose Vaquedano, a fastball-changeup righty, and lefty Tommy Hottovy, whose senior year of college K to BB ratio was 92 to 10. Personal fave Abe Alvarez is probably too hittable for Coors Field, although he is closer to the majors if the Rockies decide they want someone they can plug in right away.

The recommendation here, if the Red Sox really do want to do business, is the same as in case of a Preston Wilson or any other deal: get young arms in quantity. Colorado has a lot of young position players either in the high minors or already with the parent club, plus they have the enticement of the Coors Effect when it comes to filling in holes with free agent signings. We need pitchers! Of course, if the Red Sox completely take leave of their senses and want to send us Hanley Ramirez for Jennings, that's fine too. Clint can play second.

Posted by Mark Donohue on May 16, 2005 at 03:34 PM

I really wish Lester well with his recovery from Chemotherapy, by the way, and hope he has a full and happy future in baseball, but that trade wouldn't have been better than what we got yesterday. There was also this tidbit posted at the Row a few days later:

well...
If somebody like the Red Sox were to trade for Jennings, its seems he'd wind up more as a swingman or insurance starter than someone taking the ball twice a week. My point isn't that Jennings is worthless, just that generally teams counting on players of his ilk to be capital "S" Starters aren't very good.

And the Rockies probably won't get better in the length of his career with them, either.

by Mark D on Tue May 24, 2005 at 10:12:23 AM EST

to be fair and pan my own past words, I replied to that last post with the following:

Even better to make the trade today.

I actually agree with the assessment of our future with him, and that's why I thought to bring this up in the first place. It's just I disagree with your point about other teams. Boston did have an interest at least briefly in him last year, apparently, if Peter Gammons is to be believed and he was just as bad if not worse. I still bet some contending team would be willing to throw him out there twice a week, Jose Lima-like just to see what he's got and give us something valuable for that rare opportunity to boot. I think teams will cut him slack because of Coors and think they can turn him around quickly. And then he could be the next Jason Schmidt or the next Seth Etherton for all I'm interested in. I only want to get the goods while we still can from him because as you say, the Rockies aren't going to be getting better as long as he's one of the front five.

by Rox Girl on Tue May 24, 2005 at 10:27:48 AM EST

My position has always been that we should be able to trade somebody like Jennings for a decent return, but I have to admit that the Rockies were getting a little better with him in the rotation in 2006. In 2007, they should still get better even without him in the rotation. Jason Hirsh isn't as good yet, but the improved offense will result in more wins nonetheless. As far as Taveras and Buchholz, I look at it this way:

Will the players you receive outperform the players you give away? Yes
Will the players you receive retain more trade value than the players you give away? Also, Yes

The fact that Taveras is a young center fielder who plays solid defense and has speed still has value in this league. Just ask the Dodgers. Buchholz and Hirsh are young talented arms, a commodity teams are always after, regardless of the "damaged goods" label that may apply to Taylor.

Second, I don't buy this "play for this year" stuff. Successful mid-market teams play for both this season and two or three seasons down the line in every move they make -and that's what the Rockies did here. Sometimes one goal will take precedence over the other, but you have to always be looking at both. Given the weak moves of the rest of the NL West this offseason, and the fact that our offense will have more players in their prime than any in the division in 2007, this was actually a fabulous time to make a trade like this and still be competitive. We now have depth, we have improved play at a key position up the middle, and we have more flexibility to still make moves in season to shore up any weaknesses that get exposed. The rotation takes a small hit, but it's not going to be significant enough to wreck our chances. Alright, I'll post more thoughts on the trade from around the horn after the jump.

From shoewizard at Diamondbacks Bullpen:

Thats an excellent trade for Colorado. Jenning is a good pitcher, but with just one year left of control, and certain to be a FA after 2007, getting Hirsh and Taveras will help them long term quite a bit

Hirsh had a rough callup, but he seems like he will have a good future, regardless....

Taveras can't hit, but his defense is more valuable in CF in Colorado than just about any other place he could go, so this is definitely maximizing what the play can do.

Bucholz probably aint much. I view him as a throw in here.

Good haul for one year of Jennings.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

Clearly, the Rockies made out like bandits on this deal. I liken it to the trade that sent Adam Eaton to Texas last year. The main difference is that the Astros did not a get an Otsuka-like player back in the deal.

From RotoWorld.com:

A clear winner for Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd. Jennings was a fine pitcher last year, finishing with a 3.78 ERA in 212 innings with the Rockies. Still, this is a guy with a 622/425 K/BB ratio in 941 innings as a major leaguer. He's hardly a sure thing to remain a second or third starter going forward. Considering that he's just one year away from free agency, the Astros overpaid here. He wasn't even worth Hirsh alone. Dec. 12 - 6:11 pm et

From Up in the Rockies:

WINNERS: Rockies, and it?s not close. The general consensus is that the Astros got robbed here, and I think that?s fair to say. Initially, it looked as though Taveras and Buchholz was the best that the Rox could hope in return for Jennings ? in fact, that very same package seemed to be on its way to the White Sox in exchange for Jon Garland, who?s probably a little better than Jennings, until the White Sox backed out, claiming Buchholz had failed a physical. (Buchholz said he was never given a physical, but it?s still something to keep an eye on.) Credit Dan O?Dowd for waiting for somebody to get desperate, and the Astros, after losing Andy Pettitte to the Yankees, were the very definition of desperate when it came to adding pitching.

From RoxHead:

Whoa Nelly, the deal has finally been done and what a deal it was. Home grown poster pitcher boy, Jason Jennings, is history. So long big guy, we had fun while it lasted. You pitched your heart out for us and we'll be forever grateful.

It's too bad that it had to come to this that's for sure. There's no reason why JJ with his big trunk and durable arm can't be a Rockie forever but that's wishful thinking in today's sporting world. He wanted the big bucks and no one should blame him for that. If he should blow out his arm tomorrow taking a shower, do you think the Astros will be sympathetic? Nope, no way. So go get all the cash you can and have fun. We'll miss those flushed cheeks and that determined face every five days of the summers to come.

From Coors Effect:

It's not the actual deal that worries me. It's the quotes that come with it.

"It's very hard to say goodbye to a homegrown talent, but whether it was now or at the end of the season, it was inevitable," O'Dowd said.

Dan is prepping for his statements in a couple of years when the team can no longer afford Matt Holliday.

On the other hand, the Rockies did get some good players out of this deal, and had the side benefit of ridding themselves of Miguel Asencio as well. Willy Taveras is a bit overrated, but he's a decent leadoff hitter. He can swipe a few bases but doesn't get on base a whole lot (just a .333 OBP last season.) Quite frankly, he's Cory Sullivan if Sully stole 30 bags a year. Which is like Juan Pierre, without the ridiculous price tag. Not sure who I like better in center field now. I guess if Coors Field and its humidor-juiced balls are going to play like a regular ballpark now, we could use such a player. On the other hand, Taveras will be 25 on Christmas, so he's younger than Cory and still on the upswing of his career.

From Baseball Think Factory (Szymborski):

I would've liked this trade better for the Rockies if they hadn't picked up Taveras - his BA and OBP are just not-terrible-enough that he'll look marginally useful for the Rockies and with his defensive reputation, which seems to have been earned solely by virtue of him being fast and a bad hitter, will make him look like a solution to the Rockies and eventually, some other stupid team. Coors is no longer the Best Hitters Park Ever, but it's still a decent hitters park and increases hits of all types, not just homers. I could start writing the entry for the Taveras free agent signing now and open it up come December 2010, I think.

Hirsh, of course, is the prize of this trade. He's a good pitching prospect, though not on the Hughes/Bailey level and Buchholz has potential, if some injury concerns, but I'm not sure I'd do this if I were the Rockies. You have a starting pitcher who can survive in Coors and you're going to cash him in and start over? Kind of risky.

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Click the link on the BBTF article

Even though the Oracle doesn't like Taveras, ZiPS does, .304/.353/.383 isn't bad with 35 steals and his defense -which was rated very highly by David Pinto's PMR, by the way, so it's not just because he's fast and a bad hitter, and don't forget he has a great arm.

I think the Oracle might be off on this one, particularly if Taveras hits those computer projections.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 8:07 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Okay, I know in the Employee of the Month

Parking spot I pay tribute to the fact that JJ was the Rockies' winningest pitcher, but lest we get too caught up in that meaningless fact, it also should be noted that Jennings was the Rockies' losingest pitcher as well. JJ was a slightly better than mediocre pitcher on a weak team for most of his career here, that is all. He's not a pitcher you re-sign at ALL costs.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 8:37 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

That comment was mostly in response to WP

at the Denver Post:

Jason Jennings was the team's No. 1 draft pick in 1999, was the prototype pitcher the ownership and management bragged they would be building the franchise around, astounded the National League by being selected rookie of the year - in Denver, of all places - and became not just a solid starter, but won more games (58) than any other pitcher in Rockies history. Wow! Keep him at ALL costs.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 8:41 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Rosenthal:

From his most recent update:

In a trade that sparked immediate criticism from rival executives, the Astros parted with three players Tuesday -- including top pitching prospect Jason Hirsh -- to acquire right-hander Jason Jennings from the Rockies.

The Astros exchanged Hirsh, right-hander Taylor Buchholz and center fielder Willy Taveras for Jennings and right-hander Miguel Asencio -- a steep price, considering that Jennings is a free agent after this season.

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 9:04 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

No extension even talked about?

Most conversation that I can see this morning is focused on an extension for Jennings, who can walk after 2007 as it stands right now. In their story yesterday, Purple Row had said that they were "expecting that the Astros must have a contract extension already mostly finished."

Now the official site tells us that, well, "'the Astros hadn't discussed an extension with Jennings yet, and Jennings said he hadn't thought about his contract since hearing the news that he'd been traded."

Excuse me, but isn't that, I dunno, negligent? Isn't that kind of bush?

We paid way too much for Jennings, but never mind that. If this deal has any hope of ever appearing on the positive side of the ledger for the Astros, Jason Jennings has got to be good, and good for many years. Jennings needs to be an Astro in 2007, and well beyond. Right now, we have no insurance. Right now, Jennings could have a nice year in '07--and then Astros fans could watch a gleeful JJ play the sure-to-be-absurd '08 free agent pitching market and a) fleece us or b) walk.

Wow.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 11:07 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with UItR's take...

I also said that this deal was the result of O'Dowd waiting for the right team to get desperate, and the Astros and Purpura fit this bill precisely when they lost Andy Pettitte (combined with the uncertainty of a Clemens return.) They had quality players to offer that fit our needs and they badly needed a reliable starting pitcher.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

by rockiesfan06 on Dec 13, 2006 12:03 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry,

I kind of spaced not giving Baseball with an Altitude props as well:

Jason Jennings and Miguel Asencio have been dealt this afternoon to Houston in exchange for Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz, and Willy Taveras. I can't even begin to put in to words how pleased I am with Dan O'Dowd after analyzing this deal. The soon-to-be 25 year old Hirsh was widely considered the top pitching prospect in the Astros system after dominating the Pacific Coast League, a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, to the tune of a 2.10 ERA in 137.1 innings. Not only that, but he allowed an absurd 6.16 H/9 while striking out 118. This guy has a higher ceiling than Jennings and it's quite possible that he will be a better pitcher by the 2008 season. What the Rockies will likely miss is the durability and the workhorse attitude that JJ provided for the rotation, as well as his great grounder-inducing sinker. However, it was a sacrifice that the Rox had to be willing to make in order to bring in a haul like this. Hirsh is clearly the centerpiece of this deal.

As one of the most frequently updated Rockies blogs during the offseason so far, with plenty of good commentary, your stuff is definitely worth checking out.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 12:31 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

no worries

It wasn't my intention to get my blog some free pub (I appreciate it though), but rather I think it's a common sentiment (as evidenced by Dan's Up In the Rockies, Rox Fan in TN's The Coor's Effect, and my Baseball with an Altitude, as well as others) that the reason that Dan O'Dowd deserves so much credit for this deal is because he did precisely what we've all been calling for him to do all these years. He sold high, was patient enough to wait for the right deal, and as soon as he saw the Astros' blood in the water, he jumped all over it. It wouldn't surprise me if he was the one that called Purpura up after Pettitte bolted for New York and rekindled the JJ talks.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

by rockiesfan06 on Dec 13, 2006 12:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

A few weeks ago I was not sold on trading JJ. Then Tim Purpura came along and decided that he needed to out-dumb all the other GMs in the NL Central (what with Jim Hendry signing Soriano to that albatross contract) and that he needed a starting pitcher. Bingo.

The Astros were the perfect team to deal with. They're one of those teams that expects to contend every year, but doesn't have the money to throw around to do it like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. JJ may only be a marginal improvement over Hirsh right now (never mind two or three years down the road) and let's just say that he's not the kind of guy who's going to put butts in seats. I doubt Astros fans are screaming and hollering "WE GOT JENNINGS!" right now. Clear win for us. (Never mind that we got another decent pitching prospect and Willy Taveras, who may only be a mild improvement over Cory Sullivan, but whatever.)

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 13, 2006 12:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It's interesting to me that so many people

Are using Willy T as a sticking point in this deal (not you, others) to balance it out a little more in favor of the Astros somehow.

It's crazy. Willy Taveras wasn't the focal point, he was a secondary piece. Not quite the throw in that Buchholz was, but he wasn't the main player we acquired either.

People also seem to ignore that he seems to be improving each year, and even within the year. After the All-Star Break Willy put up a line of .308/.365/.375, which beats Sullivan's .258/.331/.375 fade down the stretch by just a little bit but Taveras did it in a less hitting friendly environment.

I don't know if it means anything, if he'll be decent or not for us or if we have to deal him for a reliever. I just know that no matter how you slice it, we got the best of this deal regardless.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 1:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Taveras and Consistency

One thing that I think Taveras brings to the table that Cory struggled with is consistency. At times last year, Sullivan would go into a funk that he just seemed to take forever to snap out of. He had two months, May and September, in which he batted .179 and .171, respectively. On the flip side, Taveras never batted lower than .250 in a single month. Hitting .250 isn't great, but it at least showed that he was able to stay out of long stretches of worthlessness, something Cory couldln't manage to do, which ultimately cost him some ABs.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

by rockiesfan06 on Dec 13, 2006 2:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on this one

the three standouts for me are:

-Taveras has increased his BB% and decreased his K% every year in the majors, and his BB% in the minors was quite satisfactory. Given the alternatives currently present, there is no better option.

-If VORP is to be considered the benchmark statisitical tool for casual SABR guys, how can people not see the improvement over Sullivan when his VORP was higher in a less friendly hitters environ! Granted the difference was small, there was still a difference, he was better, and he's young enough to keep improving.

-Lastly, Taveras skipped AAA, like Sullivan, only Taveras started to make progress in his rate stats (if not shown in his BA) in his second year in the bigs. That's a major development jump for a 23 year old, who now enter's his year 25 season, which should be his second in the bigs based on traditional development curves. The last thing Taveras should be considered as is a finished product.

I'm done defending his acquisition, he'll have to do the rest with his play. No one's making the argument that he will save our '07 season, they are just saying he's a better alternative, and why some can't live with that, while refusing to offer other solutions to the "problem," is beyond me.

by David "ohno" on Dec 13, 2006 3:22 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Well said

Well said.

Taveras is an immediate (if not substantial) upgrade in center and he still has potential to turn into something even greater.

I am not sure why people want to compare him to the elite centerfielders. We got him as a secondary piece in a trade and he is a useful trade asset if we should happen to find a better option in center.

by MADness on Dec 13, 2006 3:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly, he is what he is,

But we got him for a steal and what he is improves on what we already had.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2006 4:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN's Keith Law's take on the deal

Usually I like what Keith writes, but I'm going to have to disagree here. He focuses solely on the fact that Hirsh is a flyball pitcher and automatically says he won't succeed at Coors.

***

...The Rockies get a pile of stuff in exchange for one year of Jennings, receiving quantity rather than quality. Willy Taveras is a speedy center fielder with good range but little ability at the plate. He's the poor man's Juan Pierre. While the Rockies need a rangy guy in center, they're looking at a lineup with two rookies fresh out of Double-A, a second baseman who produces no offense, and now a center fielder who produces no offense.

...The two arms the Rockies got are more interesting for their service time (Jason Hirsh has six years remaining until free agency, while Taylor Buchholz has five) than for their abilities. Hirsh is a back-of-the-rotation starter with a flat 90-93 mph fastball that leads to a lot of fly balls, something that will be problematic if Coors Field continues to play the way it did in September '06 and in every year before last season. Buchholz has a solid-average fastball and an out-pitch curveball, but he has had problems staying healthy throughout his career and hasn't missed bats the way he should with that breaking ball. He's probably a reliever in the majors, but because he has plus control and two good pitches, he's got a chance to be a good one if he can stay off the DL. He has the highest risk of any of the three players the Rockies received but also the highest upside.

...As for Colorado, I'm surprised that no one offered a higher-quality prospect for Jennings, given how many teams are still looking for starters and how much some inferior starters have received on the market.

***

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

by rockiesfan06 on Dec 13, 2006 8:51 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Either he knows more than everyone else or he is talking out of his arse.

Time will tell. ;)

by MADness on Dec 13, 2006 9:06 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe dissing the Rockies is his payback

For Ringolsby taking him out back to the woodshed a week or two ago. I'm not going to go into the Taveras thing again, but I think Law will wind up eating his words more about our other up the middle players, Iannetta and second base in particular.

by Rox Girl on Dec 14, 2006 12:38 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Law

I read what Law said and I also have to disagree with him...

Interesting he says that, because according to Rosenthal, executives around the league were shocked about the package the Astros traded away, with one executive reportedly saying he "wouldn't trade Hirsh for Jennings straight up."

That is enough for me to think the Rockies absolutely hosed the Astros in this deal...but time will tell

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Dec 14, 2006 12:34 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs