Top 30 PuRPs: Winter Edition

by Rox Girl on Dec 18, 2006 9:23 AM MST in Rockpile

Without further ado, your Purple Row Top 30 Colorado Rockies Prospects:

Troy Tulowitzki 477
Chris Iannetta 445
Franklin Morales 437
Ian Stewart 420
Jason Hirsh 402
Dexter Fowler 397
Ubaldo Jimenez 396
Joe Koshansky 360
Greg Reynolds 344
Jeff Baker 317
Juan Morillo 316
Seth Smith 308
Jonathan Herrera 267
Samuel Deduno 221
Eric Young Jr 220
Chaz Roe 217
Hector Gomez 203
Shane Lindsay 194
Oscar Rivera 179
Chris Nelson 173
Corey Wimberly 161
Josh Sullivan 150
Brandon Hynick 104
Ching Lung Lo 67
Joe Gaetti 67
Jeff Salazar 62
Andrew Johnston 62
Matthew Miller 60
Pedro Strop 55
Aneury Rodriguez 53

And just barely missing the cut:

31. Cole Garner 52

I'll give some general thoughts and impressions and then later in the comments I'll list the others that received votes.

I'm pretty satisfied with the results of this poll as far as the top 30 goes. It has some balance between projection and performance, with all of the inclusions at least having a decent shot of making the majors if they haven't already done so. I am curious why Daniel Mayora continues to be left off of so many people's lists. He finished as the #34 prospect here, but he's the only Rockies prospect that BA had in a league top 20 (NWL #15) to be excluded from our list. To compare, two prospects we did include, right handers Pedro Strop and Brandon Hynick, were rated the 17th and 19th best prospects respectively in the Pioneer League -a lower classification- and our #30, Aneury Rodriguez, missed the cut in the NWL top 20 while Mayora made it. Anyway, I've got some errands to run, but I'll be back later with the rest of the also-rans.

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Comments

Mayora

That answer is easy.....less pub.

Anuery has been talked about at length....many think he can be our next Jimenez/Morales/Morillo level prospect.

Mayora has been barely talked about......no one knows much about him.

RMN or the Post doing a profile on him would go a long way towards getting him in the minds of more Rockies fans.

by sg8335aa on Dec 18, 2006 10:04 AM MST reply actions

Yeah

Mayora, in my mind, is only like the fifth-best shortstop in our system, and probably will be moved off the position. He's behind Tulo, Herrera, Nelson, and Gomez -- I'm not sure why he's behind Nelson at this point, but whatever. I guess since Nelson was a #1 draft pick a couple of years ago we're still giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 18, 2006 10:20 AM MST up reply actions

Also

Mayora's .304/.375/.442 line is pretty impressive when you consider that NWL is generally a very hitter-unfriendly league. On the flipside, he's already 21, and actually two months older than Nelson, while being just nine months younger than Tulo and eight months younger than Herrera.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 18, 2006 10:25 AM MST up reply actions

His stats were incredibly impressive

It's not just the league context, but Dust-Devil Stadium. His .304 average was good enough for 6th in the league, but it was a whole 50 points higher than his next teammate to qualify (Victor Ferrante). Yeah, I realize it's partly due to the deep system that Mayora gets lost, even by BA to some extent. To give you some idea how deep: in my mind he's a better (and younger) prospect than the only other NWL shortstop to stand out last year, Emmanuel Burriss, who ranks as the #7 prospect in the San Fran system right now according to Sickels, and was #4 in the NWL according to BA (Burriss is basically Corey Wimberly with better patience, Mayora projects to have more power). Yet Mayora has a hard time cracking our top 30, apparently.

by Rox Girl on Dec 18, 2006 11:25 AM MST up reply actions

factor......

Major Factor: He wasn't drafted. He wasn't a major bonus baby.

Until he hits full-season ball, players like him just aren't going to crack our Top 30 until he makes a name for himself during a full season. Especially when it is a poll by election via fans. When is the average fan going to find out any information about Mayora? Other than his stats, what do we know about him?

I figure Mayora will have a much better chance to crack an "expert's list" rather than a "fan's list" just because the pub isn't there yet.

by sg8335aa on Dec 18, 2006 12:37 PM MST up reply actions

Also

Don't forget that in 2005 he put up a pedestrian .265/.325/.377 line at Casper. It's pretty rare for one of our guys to actually see his numbers go up from Casper to Tri-City. I think some of us are waiting to make sure this isn't some sort of fluke.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 18, 2006 1:12 PM MST up reply actions

When I see that, I usually assume 'breakout'

Particularly if the player does it in reverse of what you would normally expect like that and if they are in an age range where sudden surges in productive output have precedent. It would be a whole lot easier for me to write it off as a fluke if it happened from Tri-City to Asheville, for instance. In any case, the numbers should definitely be a flag that the player deserves a closer look. Mayora's definitely still raw and he has weaknesses with his swing that might be exposed at higher levels (leg kick, he moves around a lot) but he's hit better at Tri-City at that age than almost any other prospect we've had there. Better than Seth Smith, Matt Miller, and others. Macri hit about as well at that level, but he was a year older.

I understand wanting to wait for full-season ball to put him much higher than where you or I had him on our lists, but I don't really understand leaving him off entirely, considering that he's had at least a little buzz from scouting sources such as BA, and has the stats to make you feel good about it as well.

by Rox Girl on Dec 18, 2006 1:52 PM MST up reply actions

I'm still

trying to figure out why I continue to place Chris Nelson in such high regard, as I think Mayora is more likely to pan out than him. Maybe it's like Jayson Nix a couple of years ago, when he had a good season followed by two terrible ones, but it seemed to take a while for people to drop him off the prospect lists.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 18, 2006 3:08 PM MST up reply actions

exactly.....

its not so much that he isn't a good prospect.....he's stuck in the wrong organization right now to be talked about more often.

By my count, there are at least 6 middle infielders "ahead" of him in Tulo, Herrera, Nelson, Gomez, EY Jr., Wimberly......not to mention a 7th in Macri had his past two seasons not been so filled with injuries.

He'll get the pub eventually, but he needs a few of those guys to flame out or reach the majors before getting more press.

by sg8335aa on Dec 18, 2006 10:25 AM MST up reply actions

BP's Kevin Goldstein is

having a chat right now. Hopefully he answers my question about where he would rank Hirsh in the Rockies Top 10.

by Russ Oates on Dec 18, 2006 12:39 PM MST reply actions

Others receiving votes:

Cole Garner 51
Darren Clarke 39
Brandon Durden 39
Daniel Mayora 33
Jordan Czarniecki 20
Jim Miller 19
Josh Newman 18
Ryan Speier 14
Helder Velazquez 10
Brian Aguailar 9
Matt Macri 8
David Patton 8
Simon Ferrer 8
Alan Johnson 7
Jason Burch 7
Yull Silano 6
Keith Weiser 5
Xavier Cedeno 5
Alvin Colina 5
David Christensen 4
Carlos Martinez 3
Phillip Cuadrado 2
Jhoulys Chacin 2
Christian Colonel 1

Several relief pitchers and a couple of likely organizational types rather than prospects in Czarniecki and Aguailar, and then a bunch of interesting "gimmick" players in the eight and seven point range. These guys are intriguing to watch certainly, but may have a harder time duplicating their success at higher levels. As for the relievers, our organization has shown a willingness more than most others to give minor league relief pitchers a legit chance at cracking the major league team, so that's why I ranked a few of these highly myself. I have no qualms with any of them being listed. After that you get some more of the organization's live arms in Silano, Cedeno and Chacin. These guys are definitely still flying under the radar but all have some solid stuff and could be rising up the list fast next season. Christensen, Velazquez and to some extent Garner, are all still raw, unrefined talents. The first two have a long way to go, but their natural ability trumps that of many of the players that did make the top 30. Cuadrado, Colonel and Colina project to be fairly decent bench guys, and all three have a shot at making decent MLB careers.

by Rox Girl on Dec 18, 2006 1:02 PM MST reply actions

Profiles

I'm going to be putting up profiles of each of the top 30, similar to what Russ is doing with his draft previews, starting from the bottom with Rodriguez and I'll hopefully have one out every couple of days until Spring Training begins. Aneury should be up some time tomorrow, and we'll go from there.

by Rox Girl on Dec 18, 2006 3:32 PM MST reply actions