Virtual reality

by Rox Girl on Apr 15, 2006 1:27 PM MDT in Rockpile

In my series overview yesterday, I pointed out that the Colorado Rockies' offense has improved this season. It's improved by quite a margin, actually, and last night was more evidence of this. Still, we can't seem to buy any love from the only place it really matters: Big Media. Oh, they love Barry Bonds and his pathetic season, they love the Yanks and their rubber-band rotation, they even love the Brewers "(mostly)", but the Rockies?

The verdict: Not for real
Except for some tweaks to the supporting cast, these Rockies sure do look a lot like the same team that finished last in the NL West last year -- only older. Which is a good thing if you ran 19 rookies out there the year before, as the Rockies did. There is promise here. And there is talent in the system. But is this team going to go from 67 wins to the playoffs? Sorry.

"I think they just had a good week," said one front-office man. ... "On paper, I can't get too excited about that team," said an NL GM, "even though 85 might win that division."

Here we start to see some of the problem. These execs and Jayson Stark are looking at the Rox without any sort of historical context, which is a shame since Stark has so many reference boys (reference minions?) around to provide him with that sort of thing. It's not just that the Rockies had a good week, they had a great week, on the road. Of course they've proven remarkably ineffective at protecting the home fires thus far, but we'll skip that point for now since it doesn't help my argument. Here are five certain things I can tell about the Rockies already that are clearly different this year from last year:

Our bullpen is more effective at protecting leads from the start. It wasn't until the middle of May last year that we had any sort of stability in the pen. This year is another story as we've only had one blown lead, and that had more to do with poor defensive judgment than poor pitching.
Brad Hawpe has found his power stroke. Last year, Hawpe's swings were generally tentative, it seemed like he would come to the plate not wanting to look bad rather than looking for his pitch, and then he got injured and he just never was able to show the talent he's showing now.
Matt Holliday has matured as a batter. This happened sometime during the middle of last season, I think, but Matt's become more consistent and less prone to streaks.
The team has depth. Jamey Carroll notwithstanding, the team actually has replacement level replacements.
Aaron Cook for a full season (alright, maybe not so certain). Not that he or Jennings are a true anchor to the rotation, but the pair combined certainly do provide steady innings when we need them.

Anyway, it's way too soon to write off the team as out of the playoffs, but I think we should expect this sort of talk at least until August, then the bandwagon will start to roll.

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well...

i watched Fox Sports Baseball Report this morning, and Ken Rosenthal talked about the Rockies.

Actually, the Rockies took up a good 10 minutes of the 30 min show. An interview with Garrett Atkins was real good.

But back to Rosenthal. He said his suprise team thus far is the Rockies, and that the Rockies will contend and be in the hunt come September in the NL West. He said the rest of the division is too weak and injury prone (citing the Giants and Dodgers). He also mentioned the Rockies are playing this well without Torreabla (who he thinks will break out once hes healthy), BK Kim, Pierda off the bench, Dohmann, and Tsao.

He specifically mentioned those 5, saying that once the Rockies get them, they could really take off. All of those players will only make the team stronger. Fogg has looked good, as has JJ and Cook, while Francis pitched much better his last start. He said the bullpen is holding down leads.

He mentioned some good points...so hopefully hes right...

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Apr 15, 2006 2:18 PM MDT reply actions

I think he's on to something, it's too bad he

didn't see how fragile the rest of the division was at the beginning of the season. The Giants' wheels are already starting to fall off, as soon as the next key injury hits they will sink fast, and the Padres looked so bad last week that I think they may actually be out of the race by the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers worry me a little, however, with their talent and willingness to spend lots of money (and prospects)to fix things. BK's return will be an important measuring stick of how far we'll be able to go, if he's as good as he was last year, our improved offense will get him some wins and he'll fill out our rotation. Zach Day's start yesterday was pretty bad, he's still not the pitcher he's supposed to be and we need a better part there.

by Rox Girl on Apr 15, 2006 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree...

for the most part.

The Giants are old and your right, before long the wheels will really start falling off. Too many injury questions (Benitez, Schmidt, Bonds, etc). The Pads, well, you said it all.

As for the Dodgers and D-Backs, they dont worry me that much. The Dodgers are falling like flies, with now Brazoban out for the season. The D-backs are ok, but their pitching is not going to be this good all year, and their offense is really struggling besides Tracy and Jackson. Even their top prospects have gotten off to slow starts at AAA, as you mentioned (Quentin and Drew).

To see what we will be getting back soon has to be exciting, knowing it can only get better:
--Kim to, more than likely, replace Day.
--Piedra, who will strengthen the bench and was the best PH in the league last year.
--Torreabla, who many scouts felt he was going to break out, especially in Coors.
--Dohmann and Tsao to make the bullpen even better.

Add those 5 to another name I forgot, Mike DeJean, who shouldnt be out that long. Every player coming back will be a significant upgrade to our team...and Im looking forward to it with great anticipation.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Apr 15, 2006 2:55 PM MDT up reply actions

Don't forget one other name on the DL, either

Ryan Shealy. Having him back behind Todd will be a big bonus for us sometime this season.

As far as the D-backs and Dodgers, and to a smaller extent, the Giants, I'm not as concerned by what their teams look like now, as I am by what changes they can make mid-stream. In a division like this, one key addition could tilt the balance wildly (the Padres would need two or three) and San Fran, LA and Arizona have all in the past proven willing to part with prized commodities for the quick fix if they smell playoffs. I think a move like that this year from one of our opponents could bump us out, if it's the right move, and honestly I might be okay with it as I'd rather hold onto what we're building than risk it for one brief shot at the playoffs when we aren't yet ready to go anywhere once we get there.

by Rox Girl on Apr 15, 2006 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions

Oh no doubt

those teams will make a move once the time comes. Josh Byrnes has already proven aggressive as the D-Backs GM (Hernandez, Hudson, etc).

As for the Giants, they always seem to make a move (Winn last year). They have been trying for years to get Jason Jennings. The only thing about the Giants is, what do they have to offer? The Rockies wanted Cain and Valdez. Who else do they have to offer? The Dodgers have a lot to offer, but it depends what they are willing to give up. Im sure guys like Billingsley, Guzman, Martin, LaRoche, and others they arent willing to give up.

Yes, Shealy is coming back, but I honestly see him gone come July. We cant keep him down in AAA forever. The owners and O'Dowd have said through the media that if the Rockies are indeed in the hunt come the trading deadline, they are willing to add payroll for a player instead of subtract like we have in previous seasons.

Guys I could see used to bait come July, if we are in the hunt include Shealy, Closser, Baker, Spilborghs, etc...All are trapped in the organization through the depth we have built up.

We shall see, but if theres one team I possibly fear, its the Dodgers due to the fact of the system they have, they could make a big trade, and it seems as though they are a team linked to every big name available. The Diamondbacks not enough pitching or offense, and along with the Padres, both teams would have to make upgrades in both departments. Giants are too old in my opinion and before long it will really start to show...

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Apr 15, 2006 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree, those are almost my exact thoughts,

in fact. That's why I put that "to a lesser extent, the Giants," I really don't think they can overcome their age and fragility, but they have the pitching that with the right player it's at least conceivable. And you're right, they don't have much to offer, but they do have some players in the system that other teams covet and if they get the right also ran wanting to dump salary..,

Anyway, I don't see that scenario as likely, but it's at least in the realm of possibility. Also in the realm of possibility: the D-backs are willing to part with Dustin Nippert to improve their pitching now, I could see them having enough luck to overcome the rest of the division. Remember, they have looked about as good as our team through the early season (only, while we've looked on O, they've looked good on the mound, oddly).

Now here's the trouble with the Rockies, of the prospects you mentioned, only Shealy would have enough real value to other teams to get us back a worthwhile player, unless we were totally able to fleece somebody. Nobody's going to want to give up a valuable component for Ryan Spillborghs or Jeff Baker no matter how much we like them (and I do) and I don't want to touch the players they would likely target (Morales, Iannetta, Atkins, Fuentes, Lindsay, etc...) Trading Shealy has its own risks, as if Todd Helton gets injured at that point we'd have to move Garrett over to first and call up Stewart prematurely. That would likely end our competition for the division right there.

I do agree completely about the Dodgers still being the biggest threat. With their home park and depth they will absorb the loss of both Yhency and Eric much better than people expect.

by Rox Girl on Apr 15, 2006 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions

Agreed...

we are pretty much on the same page.

The Dodgers will be able to handle the losses of Gagne/Brazoban pretty good, but those are still big losses. I know I wasnt really looking forward to seeing Brazoban/Baez/Gagne for the 7-8-9 innings.

The Diamondbacks, I fear them in the future no doubt with that farm system, but at this time I dont. Padres, well, they are on the way down for awhile...

Now to the names I mentioned. I dont know how many teams would be after Spilborghs (even though he continues to produce), but Im sure teams would take Baker and Closser. Baker is still a very good prospect that has put up good numbers when healthy. Closser is a switch hitting catcher, and teams are always willing to give them numerous chances. I DO see Shealy gone though. He provides insurance, but O'Dowd has already said once hes healthy they will start exploring trade options.

I am VERY confident the Rockies, if they make a move, will not touch the "core" of our system (Stewart, Tulo, Iannetta, Jimenez, Morillo, Morales, etc)...I'd like to see us add an impact player though when the deadline comes around, instead of dealing one of our commodities.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Apr 15, 2006 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions