In the short term, it would open up a spot for Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker to play everyday until someone from the Seth Smith, Joe Koshansky, Ian Stewart trio starts pushing for playing time.  Who knows.....Jeff Baker and Javy Lopez could be in a battle for the starting 1B job.  

The problem in negotiations may then lie in how each team perceives Helton.  If the Rockies honestly believe Helton will experience a bounce-back in power, then they'll avoid such a deal in fear of selling low.  The Red Sox could also make a legitimate claim that Helton's game is under natural regression, and wish to only pay market value.  The money itself plays a large role, but this has been covered enough in the media that I won't need to get into it here.  So what will need to happen to make this work?

For Helton to be dealt now, the Rockies would have to win the argument on Helton's value, even if it's only a minor win or compromise.  If Helton is the only Rockie dealt, and the Rockies do in fact eat more than half of the contract, they should be able to add one prospect to the deal.  Both Craig Hansen and Michael Bowden could be good targets, but I'd imagine both Ellsbury and Buchholz to be off limits.  Why can the Rockies ask for this?  For one, there's no way they can count a deal of Lowell and Tavarez as a win with the public.  It would be a salary dump, and in three years, the Rockies would have no player from the dealt still under contract, but continue to pay for Helton's salary.  I'm sure it would be seen as another in the long line of embarrasments for O'Dowd.  The Rockies need AT LEAST one young player or prospect who could potentially make an impact to the roster while the Rockies pay out the remainding balance of there portion of the Helton contract.

So how would the Rockies turn these lemons to lemonade?  They could start by trying to expand the deal with Boston.  The Rockies could again request Coco Crisp and Craig Hansen to add to Lowell and Tavarez.  In exchange, the Rockies would add Willy Taveras to the deal to offer Boston a replacement for Crisp, or serve as a defensive sub for a Ramirez-Drew-Pena outfield (which has more offensive impact than a Ramirez-Crisp-Drew outfield).  If the Rockies are going to eat the majority of the Helton contract, they should expect a nicer package such as this.

Next, the Rockies should find a taker for Mike Lowell immediately.  The rockies have no need for him.  They could just move Baker to third, and Atkins to first.  That might leave the bench a little thin at first glance, but I think a combination of Spilborghs and Mabry could absolve the expected production of Baker off the bench.  The real protection lies in AAA.  Should Baker not handle third, or keep up his offensive output, the Rockies would need one of Seth Smith, Ian Stewart, or Joe Koshansky to prove ready (Smith would move to right, Hawpe to first, Atkins back to third).  

There should be takers for Lowell, starting with Los Angeles of Anaheim.  Perhaps the Rockies could finally acquire Erik Aybar, who could open in a utility role, or even compete for second or center, and maybe a Tommy Mendoza.  There are several clubs still in need of a third baseman, especially one with perceived ability of Lowell (overrated defense, streaky offense, fan favorite).  

Basically, if the Rockies can add a prospect to the deal (a 3-1) and then flip Lowell for more, they could add the young talent they desire.

If only the Yankees weren't so frugal these days, we'd have a nice little bidding war...

http://www.enkrates.com/blog/2007/01/27/why-todd-helton-must-remain-in-denver/

but what if i'm wrong?  what if the regression really actually is just due to untimely injuries and a freak stomach parasite?  if that's the case (and of course, my conclusion is based on pure speculation) and helton gets healthy and starts to get his power back, i would want o'dowd tarred and feathered were he to make any of the trade scenarios being discussed here.  at the very least, let's start the season with him on the roster!  if his numbers continue to mirror 2005 and 2006, it's not like his value will plummet or something.  i'm sure we can still find a taker for him by the deadline.  and if he starts to return to pre-2005 form, we're in a much better position.  if we're contending we can keep him around.  consider the impact he's having on holliday, atkins, and the rest of the young hitters.  i'm not one to harp on intanglibles usually (i was terrified the rocks were going to waste money on erstad) but when you only have one everyday player with more than 4 years of experience in the league, you have to figure he's helping out the young guys at least a little bit.  or, if he gets good again but we still want to deal him, who knows what we could get.  i'm absolutely terrified theyre going to send him down the river when he's actually got 3-4 years of .320/30/120 let in him. not that that's likely... but it's definitely possible.  and i refuse to come to games at an empty coors field this summer while he puts up those numbers in boston and we picked up tavares, lowell, and hansen for him.  that possibility absolutely terrifies me.

For starters, I don't see Mike Lowell hanging around in Colorado through the season, if he even makes it to spring training with the team.  If he can be turned into an additional prospect, this might not look so bad.

I think too many fans here are afraid to trade the memories of Todd Helton, but not the present and future Helton.  Suppose Helton was to have a bounce back this season, how long would it last?  He's approaching 34, so the decline will only restart shortly.  

Getting two prospects and two major leaguers, one that could become another prospect, doesn't look that bad if it means flexibility and stability in the future.  Some of this savings could be plugged into the signing budget for the draft, allowing the Rockies to go overslot in a few rounds to restock the lower levels.  It isn't just about the players.

Again, all the Rockies need are solid additional prospects that can make an impact through the majority of Helton's deal.  The fan base is already down, and everyone knows that winning, not one aging superstar, is what brings fans to the park.  If you don't believe it, just look at the Avs, who have lost their sellout streak and have incurred more empty seats as the team struggles, depsite having Sakic still in tow.  

So relax, the Rockies won't just take Lowell and Tavarez.  They're going to get some young talent, whether they get it all from Boston or from elsewhere with Lowell.

My Take:

Kudos to O'Dowd for his firm offer.  The Rockies will cover less than half of Helton's deal, and expect to receive one prime prospect in return.  Before everyone balks at the offer, consider that Lowell's expected production (with a Coors bump in average) may not be terribly far off from what Todd would do here.  The actual difference in production last year was almost a win and a half, so nothing's getting mailed in.  

I laughed when I read how the Rockies would "consider" Lester, as he may be the best player of the six.  I'm not up to speed completely on his recovery, but last I remember they were hoping he could go from the start.  Personally, if we're only getting one, let's take Manny Delcarmen off that list.  He doesn't seem much different than Ramon Ramirez.  Everything else looks good from there.

For those that are looking at this as a baseball deal (and not strictly from a fan's perspective), I think the hardest thing to grasp is the impact of the salary relief, because it can't be quantified in expected production or wins, nor can webe sure where the money will go.  It is only fair that we assume that money will be poured back into the team, or else the Rockies are finished as a professional franchise.  It's okay to burn some bridges now if you truely believe that you can take the salary relief and add stability to the rest of the roster, in hopes of buying future wins.  Burn those bridges and pocket the money, and you sink your franchise.  Rockies fans aren't Pirates fans, the club has no long standing history to retain fans like Pittsburgh.  If Monfort plans on having a payroll in the 40 million range for the next few years, The Rockies will just become the Expos, not even an afterthought in its own city.  Monfort understands the risk of dealing Helton, and if this team means anything to him, even if its sole purpose is to make a profit, he'll put the money back in to stay competitive.  He cannot afford to do otherwise.

As for the current deal at hand, I think it is a good start.  The Rockies would get back a player not only worthy of making their top ten prospect list but also playing a role in the team's present.  With Lowell, they'd also get a player that could have further value in trade.  I found most of Paige's article today to have little value, but he does make a good point about Ensberg, who has serious bounce back potential and could make a better bridge to the arrival of Stewart (or Koshansky).  The Rockies don't really need the salary relief at this very secod, so they could pay the difference in Lowell's salary to acquire Ensberg, as that money was earmarked for use as is.  

With the significant amount of money involved in this deal, the Rockies can't be picky, but they also can't just give Helton away.  That's why they have made a fair offer in my opinion, and as O'Dowd showed in the Jennings deal, he will stand firm on that offer with little concession.  

Finally, try to bare in mind that the Rockies are not trading Todd Helton of late 90's/early 00's, they are trading the aging, declining (steadily the past two years) Helton.  It's hard to make a claim that keeping him is what's in the best interests of the team for future competition, since his salary likely prohibits the retention of most of the homegrown talent.  It should also be noted that Boston might be the only avenue to deal Helton.  St. Louis has no need for a first baseman, Atlanta is slicing payroll down, and Helton has already noted a decline in heading to the other big pocket franchise, Anaheim.  That basically leaves both New York's and Boston (Helton would likely turn down Baltimore, Texas has no need, Helton isn't heading to a division rival).  The Mets have Delgado, and the Yankees have avoided recent major payroll additions.  It's hard to find another taker, not just now, but a year or two down the road.  So it isn't so easy to say just hang on to him until a better deal comes around, because chances are, it won't.

So, if Boston budges, the moves is a good one.  If they won't, then we'll just have to cross our fingers that a miracle happens and age trends and years of studies on career trends are suddenly reversed, or a surprising buyer comes along that matches the wants of both Helton and the Rockies.  As contradictory as this all may sound, that's the situation the rockies find themselves in.