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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Meet Jose Capellan

The newest Rockie was signed by the Braves as a 16 year old free agent in the Dominican in 1998, and then took a long, slow route through their system before being traded to the Brewers along with Alec Zumwalt for Dan Kolb.

Capellan's calling card has always been his fastball, which he worked with in the mid-nineties in the Braves system, and it supposedly reached triple digits at times. After moving to the Brewers, his velocity disappeared and he was down to the lower nineties with the same erratic command. That said, his pitches have decent sinking movement, and he profiles well in middle relief even if the velocity doesn't come back. In many ways, he's very similar to the pitcher we traded away for him -Denny Bautista- in that his lack of command and ability to come up with a decent secondary offering has prevented him from reaching the potential he was thought to have had a few years ago.

Capellan is notorious for refusing to accept a AAA assignment from the Brewers at the start of last season, which precipitated his move to the Tigers. The Rockies are apparently hoping they can succeed in turning his career back around and finding some of that missing MPH to make him an effective late inning relief option.

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Carlos Lee?
When was he ever with the Braves?
http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 4, 2007 12:40 PM MST reply actions  

Alec Zumwalt, not Carlos Lee.
"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Dec 4, 2007 12:41 PM MST reply actions  

I have no idea what I was thinking
Other then that Lee was with the Brewers at the time of the Kolb trade. Sorry for the brain freeze.

by Rox Girl on Dec 4, 2007 12:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Hey Rox Girl
is that your picture on the ad on this page??? :)

Seriously though, Rocks Rooters should not expect too much in the deal dept. The Rocks have basically stated and acted that all holes are coming from within and only minor deals for potential return are going to be made.  All money will be spent on existing guys for arbitration.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Dec 4, 2007 2:41 PM MST reply actions  

Err... no...
On the pic thing, but I agree with everything else. I wouldn't be surprised if this deal is as wild as the offseason gets for us as far as trading is concerned. Nobody's banging down our door for Fuentes and that's what it would take for O'Dowd to move him.

by Rox Girl on Dec 4, 2007 3:30 PM MST up reply actions  

FYI
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3140853.

The Mitchell Report.  One of my minor league teammates and old friends visited me for dinner during the WS.  He is an assistant GM of a MLB team.  He said this report will really shake the game for years to come.  "Many" stars and sainted players will be fingered and he says a few wear or wore the purple.

by PinchHitLancePainter on Dec 4, 2007 3:41 PM MST reply actions  

Ouch
Yeah, that is going to hurt.  Next on the platter, though: hey, Congress!  Media!  Where did the NFL get all those 250-pound manbeasts who run the 40 in 4.4?  It still bothers me that everybody has this double standard about steroids in baseball and football.
http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 4, 2007 3:48 PM MST up reply actions  

I kind of wonder about that
I really don't know who could be named that would "shake the game for years" given that many of our saints have already been exposed or at least insinuated to have used steroids or other performance enhancers over the years. Todd Helton had that whole Wayne Hagin flap, and outside Denver it's certainly common to see speculation about the Blake Street Bombers. Walker, Bichette, Castilla and Galarraga, all of them I've seen enough speculation over to make me seriously doubt that revelations about them at this point will make that huge of an impact on current fans. Given what happened in the year with McGwire and Sosa just after Walker won his MVP over Mike Piazza, how big of a stretch is it to consider that he and Piazza were both 'roided out of their gourds? Performance enhancers didn't just jump out of nowhere for that '98 season. They had to have been just as available and in use in 1997 as well. Speaking of 1998, Big Cat still hit 44 HR's with the Braves after leaving Coors Field as a 37 year old, really, it's kind of insane to think that sort of thing is natural. I think I've moved beyond the point where I would be surprised or in denial if these guys were named on the report.

I think there are only a few players that would actually qualify as shockers anymore. From the nineties I would think the only players left that might have a serious impact on perceptions is limited to Ripken and Gwynn, and the trinity of Braves pitchers that everybody so admired. It's got to be the real squeaky clean guys to get the attention anymore. If you say that Dale Murphy pumped up on 'roids, then yeah, maybe the game gets shaken. Good Guy Jim Thome? No. Derek Jeter? No. Papi Ortiz and David Wright? Getting closer, maybe, but still it wouldn't be earth shattering. The only other way I could see would be to have a list so massive that it just floors you to look at it because it seems like everybody's named.

by Rox Girl on Dec 4, 2007 4:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I still think
that it's just odd that baseball gets nailed for the whole steroids thing whenever some marginal AAAA player gets busted while football essentially gets a free pass.  But, really, I think it's just that football fans don't give a crap (see: Merriman, Shawne.)
http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 4, 2007 5:00 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree
Although I think now that baseball's lost its virginity again, we're going to see this supposed furor over the Mitchell Report amount to maybe a few blow hard sports writers, but not have the same kind of effect on fans or Congress that the preceding probe that went nowhere did. We already know players lied. We know or assume we know that Bonds, McGwire, Sosa and others used steroids or other performance enhancers. How will this change that? The fruit's already been bitten. Too late now, so I think you'll see baseball get more of the same free pass that you see in the NFL this time around.

by Rox Girl on Dec 4, 2007 5:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Cliff Lee
Is he of any interest to us?
TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Dec 4, 2007 4:21 PM MST reply actions  

Yeah
I doubt the Astros will bite though, as that's pretty obviously an uneven swap.
http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Dec 4, 2007 6:58 PM MST up reply actions  

The Capellan Trade
While the deal is mostly an even swap of talented but inconsistent power arms, I think you have to applaud the Rockies for making this one.  I've been a fan of Capellan for a while and have suggested a few times this year that the Rockies should go after him while his value is down.  The irony is that I also have supported giving Bautista a better chance at sticking, so though you can't always get what you want, I'll gladly take what the Rockies have done today.

Capellan and Bautista are in identical situations, but a few factors stand out that suggest the Rockies will get more mileage out of acquiring Capellan than they would have keeping Bautista.  The first is the newness factor, where all sought after projects seem to take priority over in house guys.  The Rockies probably feel they know what they can get out of Bautista, yet there is a fair bit of intrigue tied to Capellan?  How will he adjust to our philosophies?  What if he makes this adjustment?  Basically, the Rockies will be more inclined to work with Capellan to improve simply because they haven't had the opportunity yet to do so.

Another factor is Capellan's success in 2006.  While both Capellan and Bautista have "significant" major league experience, it wasn't but one year ago where Capellan was the Brewers' best pitcher in leverage situations.  The Rockies were rather weak in the pen last year in leverage situations, with only Corpas and Herges having worthwhile WXRL's in the black.  That Capellan has been solid in leverage situations in the past suggest that he could likely rebound and be a solid middle inning find.  Besides, the major league rates aren't terribly scary.  The K rate is decent around 7 with room for improvement, while the walk rate is actually better than league average.  If he can harness his home run demons, and given the volatility of relievers, that isn't out of the question, he could become a decent seventh inning guy with a shot as a set up man down the road.

A final minor factor is the Rockies' clubhouse.  The Rockies appear to have an inviting clubhouse for young Latin players, where guys like Corpas, Jimenez, Morales, and Julio have come in and found there niche.  Capellan has spent years in transition thanks to trades and minor league tours of duty, and should he find the Rockies more inviting, it could change his general comfort level.  It's hard to measure intangibles like this, especially without knowing Capellan's actual demeanor, but it's a plus nonetheless.

So, while I don't like Capellan necessarily more than I do Bautista, I like the trade for one reason:  The Rockies are for more likely to use Capellan than they would Bautista.  I think the Rockies are essentially getting another Jorge Julio in this deal, but before you groan, remember that Capellan isn't necessarily a finished product yet.  His Bill James' projections suggest an ERA better than Julio this season, forecasting a correction in his high, unsustainable HR rate.  It most certainly has to come down, and if he keeps his K and BB rates, the Rockies will like what they've landed.

by David OhNo on Dec 4, 2007 6:51 PM MST reply actions  

From the holy crap department...
Now this has limited Rockies value, unless we end up having to fight the Marlins in the playoffs in the near future, but damn:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/12/04/cabrera.willis/index.html?eref=T1

Cabrera and Willis to Detroit
Miller, Maybin, Rabelo and three minor leaguers to the Marlins.

WOW.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Dec 4, 2007 8:21 PM MST reply actions  

Hmm
Well, I'd like to have Cook back.  10 million per year doesn't seem HORRIBLE.  But I do get the shivers whenever "pitcher" "long term contract" and "rockies" are in the same sentence.  Three years ain't too long, though.
"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Dec 5, 2007 12:23 AM MST up reply actions  

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