Saturday PM:

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 2:34 PM MST in Rockpile

There's probably any number of things I could post on today to catch up with ambitious projects I set out for myself earlier in the off-season, but I'm not feeling it.

Hey, at least I update more frequently than former KOA 850 producer Jeff Klein, who's blog hasn't been updated since last August. He, or his replacement, better start thinking of dusting the thing off before the season starts up again.

I'll probably add a link to his blog in the sidebar today or tomorrow. I'm also going to go through my inbox and review the sites for those of you who have requested links there over the last couple of weeks, as well as the one in the comments from a couple of days ago. If anybody else has a site I'm cruelly neglecting, now's the time to bring it up, because the Spring cleaning probably won't happen until the end of March.

Troy Renck waxed prosaic in a little ditty he whipped up for the Post this morning, the vignettes include snippets of interviews with Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Branch Rickey and somebody else, but the article was a little bit too treacly for me to go back to right now to find out who I'mm forgetting. The Sporting News says the Rockies have the third best outfield in the NL, after the Braves and Mets. Given those two teams' advantage in center with Beltran and Jones, I'm not surprised. We really need to address that next off-season if we want to move to the next level.

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YESTERDAY'S POST WAS GREAT.....

I enjoyed it and by the 40 comments, so did others. I look forward to the Modesto et al posts. You did well and deserve the day off.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 10, 2007 2:52 PM MST reply actions

First weekend of college baseball

as far as I'm concerned... Vandy beat #1 Rice yesterday and followed it up with a 10-inning win over Arizona State today down in Houston. I'm excited. Price wasn't great yesterday (from the box score), but he WAS facing the #1 team in the country.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 10, 2007 3:26 PM MST reply actions

I had a meeting yesterday

that stopped me from previewing the college weekend, but I think I'll have a recap tomorrow. I'll focus on some lesser-known players most likely.

But Andrew Brackman looked great, John Manuel reports.

by Russ Oates on Feb 10, 2007 5:41 PM MST up reply actions

Sporting News CF

I see you posted this listing to say how we need to upgrade our CF'er, but you failed to post the Sporting New's listing of NL Catchers which lists the Rockies dead last at #16. Do we need to upgrade Chris Iannetta?

(snarky comment is due Rox Girl's automatic dissing of Willie Taveras.....who's Cheerios did he pee in to get him so hated by some Rockies fans? He hasn't even taken an at bat yet! I guess 30 homers are more kewl then 45 stolen bases....sigh...do kids still use the word 'Dissing'?)

Rating our Catchers as 16th tells me the SN has no clue. And rating us 3rd.....well if they have no clue we can't hang our hat on 3rd either.

by Redhawk on Feb 10, 2007 3:42 PM MST reply actions

You're right about the catcher

SN's not the only one that is missing the boat on Chris Iannetta, however. He's been proving the haters wrong every step of the way.

I'm sorry I'm so dismissive of Willy T. I'm hoping he joins the longer than I'd like list of players that I eat crow about. The other point I should be careful to make is that if the team upgrades at second, having Willy in center will work out just fine. We have to get a better bat in one spot or the other though to keep up with Arizona (Chris Young, Orlando Hudson/Alberto Callaspo) and Los Angeles (Matt Kemp, Blake DeWitt) and given next season's options it just seems easier to do that in the outfield.

A measuring stick for my expectations on Taveras:

Meeting my low expectations:

.300/.350/.375 with about 30 SB's

Worth keeping for 2008 and beyond:

.310/.380/.400 w/ 50 SB's and 115 runs scored.

I think what I'll be looking at mostly is his walk rate, if that takes another step forward this season, then it'll be crow sandwich for Rox Girl.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 4:25 PM MST up reply actions

My expectations of Tavares

are right in the middle of yours. I'll be really looking at his walks...but even more importantly his strike outs. A speed guy can make things happen just by putting the ball in play even if it's a grounder to short.

I also like Tavares for the Stolen Bases. It was sorely lacking on the Rockies last year. SB's are also part of what I think is a winning formula for a baseball team & one which will become more important as HR's go down, and games get tighter. The era of the 3 run HR is about gone.

But like many speedsters Tavares can't steal 1st. So it's about getting on. I like his chances because:

his age. At 24 he's still young
Stats are showing imporving. He's skewing upwards still
Coors Field Great for droping in bloops and streching Doubles into Triples
Complete, and unabashed Homer-ism on my part. Putting on the Rockies uniform has got to help.

I'm far more worried about:
SS: Tulowitzki So young and unproven at the MLB level. I don't know what he brings. RBI's? HR's? plus average? Eckstein like rah-rah? I don't think it's steals/speed
2b: I'm raving about Kaz. But his time in NY was gawd offaaelle. Will the real Kaz Matsui please stand up
C: Iannetta Again young and unproven. And hot prospect catchers have a history of disappointment. (and not just for the Rockies) And his 2 back-ups aren't very inspiring
SP: Front end has no ace.
1b: Helton: Is he in decline? or just about to rebound from injury slowed seasons? if it's the latter I think the Rockies have a ligit shot. If it's the 1st...then I think the Rockies are doomed to be the Pirates/Royals and have to just churn through prospects. The ones that pan out...leave.

So 4 of 5 infield (5 of 6 counting the SP) has issues that make me worry more then Willie T's on base %

by Redhawk on Feb 11, 2007 9:55 AM MST up reply actions

My take

I will give my opinions/answers on your questions (just for my own entertainment):

SS: Tulowitzki So young and unproven at the MLB level. I don't know what he brings. RBI's? HR's? plus average? Eckstein like rah-rah? I don't think it's steals/speed

Tulo doesn't profile as a super high average guy and I expect him to have seasons both above and below .300. He projects to have very good power from the SS position but I think that even if it doesn't develop as much as some expect he should still be capable of driving in quite a few runs. Add that to great defensive ability and a very hard-working and ultra-competitive mental make-up and you have a player who will contribute and who has the potential to be a star.

----

2b: I'm raving about Kaz. But his time in NY was gawd offaaelle. Will the real Kaz Matsui please stand up

I feel that Kaz has the potential to play similarly to his career in Japan but there is really no way of knowing whether or not he will except to wait and see. If he plays like he did after coming over last year that will be a HUGE bonus for the Rockies.

----

C: Iannetta Again young and unproven. And hot prospect catchers have a history of disappointment. (and not just for the Rockies) And his 2 back-ups aren't very inspiring

Two things set Iannetta apart from our previous catching prospects (and most catching prospects, IMO) and those are his already solid defense and game-calling ability and his plate discipline. These two attributes make it FAR more likely that Iannetta will be able to contribute and remain in the lineup even as he suffers through the inevitable slumps and struggles of a young catcher trying to adjust to the majors.

----

SP: Front end has no ace.

You got me here. I love the Hirsh trade but losing Jennings did really hurt our rotation this year, atleast in terms of being able to confidently project certain performances.

----

1b: Helton: Is he in decline? or just about to rebound from injury slowed seasons? if it's the latter I think the Rockies have a ligit shot.

I can make an argument either way. Just have to wait and see, I guess. :(

by MADness on Feb 11, 2007 10:31 AM MST up reply actions

I couldn't have said it better

These are almost my exact opinions. Really, I have less long term concerns about catcher and short, I think we're okay there with Iannetta and Tulo, and my long term concerns at second are melting away just because we have so much minor league infield depth, somebody's bound to crack through successfully.

Short and intermediate term at second? I'm hopeful, but sketchy at the same time with Matsui. Center field's probably my least confident position, and part of the reason why I feel we might need an upgrade is as insurance in case Fowler doesn't pan out. Not that he will, I guess I just don't want to get burned in the same way Redhawk doesn't want to get burned at catcher after hearing about Choo Freeman and Jeff Salazar for so many seasons.

Starting pitching: Hirsh in 2007 could very well equal what Jennings would have done in 2007, but we need more of what JJ did in 2006. Franklin Morales looks like the real deal, though, so at least we've got that going for us.

First Base: Helton's decline is a question for 2007 and going forward, but I think it's been exaggerated in the media. I think he'll bounce back strongly and long term we're okay so long as we can retain some of these players we have.

by Rox Girl on Feb 11, 2007 12:18 PM MST up reply actions

concerns continued

Good responses MADness and Rox Girl

However I'm more concerned about SS/Tulio. His projections seem to be in the .280-.290 range. 15-20 hrs. Some RBI's. Solid, but nothing spectacular. I like guys that bring plus ability to one stat. Guys that are solid I don't get excited about. Tulio is compared to Bubba Crosby a lot...I like Crosby is a bust. I don't think Tulio looks like much of an imporvement over Barmes.

and Catcher: I like what I saw of Iannetta. He's better then the automatic outs that Ardoin and Closser were. But young catchers have a HUGE wash out rate. AND I watched Ivan Rodriquez come up the Rangers organization so I'm spoiled. (still my favorite player of all time)

NEXT OFF SEASON: I see a bigger need at 2nd & maybe C, then CF. But there will be more talent at CF.

by Redhawk on Feb 12, 2007 8:09 AM MST up reply actions

Those projections for Tulo are for this year

For when he'll be 22 years old, not for his peak.

By the time he's Barmes' age, Tulo should be popping 25-30 HR and his RBI will depend on where the Rockies decide to have him bat. Early comparisons were made to Crosby because they went to the same school and played shortstop. Most reputable sources now see Tulo as having a much higher ceiling.

Like MADness said, his batting averages should go over .300 some seasons, but I'd guess that his career average will wind up just underneath that.

He's definitely an offensive threat at shortstop. This season (his first full year at the MLB level) should tell us a lot more about what we can expect from his future. If he comes up with 20 HR and a .300 AVG, then we'll probably want to break out the piggy bank for him ASAP.

As far as Iannetta, your concerns are definitely justified, as you're probably aware, it typically takes a couple of seasons of MLB play to know exactly what you have behind the plate. Benito Santiago looked like a perennial All-Star when he came up, but turned out to be just a regular, and he was a lucky one.

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2007 9:09 AM MST up reply actions

Uninspiring outfields

Even the Mets and the Braves have uninspiring outfields.

Both have great centerfielders, obviously, but the Mets have aging and defensively lacking corner outfielders and the Braves have corner outfielders who are a big question mark in terms of offensive production.

by MADness on Feb 10, 2007 3:57 PM MST reply actions

I agree, I think our outfield could be the best

Depending on how Taveras performs. The Mets have Lastings Milledge waiting in the wings though, which gives them an impressive fallback for when Green disappoints again.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 4:27 PM MST up reply actions