Monday Morning links post

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2007 6:34 AM MST in Rockpile

Tracy Ringolsby at the Rocky Mountain News gives a detailed rundown of what's at stake for whom in Spring Training this year for the Rockies. Among the notes is the reiteration that as promising as Iannetta and Tulo are, they have to earn their jobs, and the same goes with Jason Hirsh.

It sounds from this article as if the rotation will have two simultaneous battles going on: one fight for the fourth spot between Josh Fogg and Byung Hyun Kim (the winner could be the one we'd get the least in trade for, not necessarily the best pitcher) and then a second battle for the last spot between Hirsh, Buchholz, Jimenez and Rivera. If neither Kim nor Fogg look impressive in Tucson, could the Rockies ship both out and go with two rookies, or one rookie and a sophomore if Buchholz earns a spot? At least to start the season, it seems like an outside possibility. The Rockies have Brian Lawrence coming back from the DL, likely in May, and they could choose to have a younger gun hold his place for a month before sliding them back to AAA or to the pen.

The bullpen could be as interesting to watch this Spring as there's bound to be some disappointment and it looks like we've got some risk of losing young talent. Ringolsby's article gives four players as "set": Fuentes, Hawkins, Affeldt and Martin, and Corpas and Ramirez as likely to be included. If we're going with just twelve pitchers to start the season, then it would seem to me that Buchholz would be the last in, as from what I understand, he's out of options. The other possibility would be to option Corpas or Ramirez down to keep Taylor, and then the Rockies could choose between Danny Graves and the rest of the "Taking a Shot" crew for the final slot.

Of course we can't predict injuries in camp, so the team's decisions on who to keep could be made easier.

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Besides his article outlining what's at stake for the players, Ringolsby also includes a separate piece detailing what's at stake for Clint Hurdle.

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Troy Renck at the Denver Post has more on the pitching conundrum, including an amusing quote from Clint Hurdle on the state of our NL West rivals' pitching staffs:

"There was a point in time this winter when I went to my backyard and went, 'Aaaaggghhh!!"' admitted Rockies manager Clint Hurdle. "And then I went back inside and I was good. Those guys coming here just made our challenge more intriguing."

Renck still implies that BK's the likely one to be traded, and not Fogg, which leaves me wondering if he has some inside info on that. Over the past two seasons, Kim's total VORP in the major leagues has been 18.2, while Fogg's has been 3.7, and the PECOTA projection for this season has Kim up 21.6 to 12.0. ZiPS projects BK's ERA to be more than a run lower than Fogg's (4.44 to 5.49) although it has Josh throwing seventeen more innings. I am really dreading a mistake being made here if Renck is right.

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Baseball Musings' David Pinto has a report from Dan Fox (of Dan Agonistes and Baseball Prospectus fame) about a SABR meeting in Denver with Walter Sylvester aka the Rockies humidor guy.) Walter seems to feel that the humidor shouldn't be used because of the psychological advantage the altitude in Denver gave the team. If Jeff Cirillo's any example, apparently the humidor itself is also giving the Rockies a psychological advantage, so I guess it's a win-win either way.

Up in the Rockies continues to preview the 2007 Rockies, with profiles of Kaz and Franchise.

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Comments

Humidor

Too bad, folks: the humidor's going to be used everywhere!

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 12, 2007 7:17 AM MST reply actions

At least in Arizona...

The Renck article has a quote that says not every team will need one, so long as their baseballs are shown to be at the Rawlins 70 degree standard they're fine.

by Rox Girl on Feb 12, 2007 7:26 AM MST up reply actions

kim/fogg

ive been dreading this one the entire offseason. i think keeping fogg around was a bad move, especially with the lawrence signing eventually working out. now just because he's less tradeable were going to have to sit through maybe 15-20 of his trademark 5.2IP/5ER/6H/4BB/1K nights. ive been a fan of kim pretty much ever since he moved to the rotation in '05. absolutely lights out about once every 7 or 8 starts (is fogg ever lights out?), puts up consistently solid numbers for long stretches, and always seems very intense. not to say that intensity itself makes him or anyone else a better pitcher. but for a guy who's like 5'2", was left for dead after one of the worst world series preformances of all time, and is pitching in a great hitter's park, a little bit of fire is nice to see. personally id also really like to see someone charge him while hes out there. i was at a rox/dodgers game a while ago where he hit jeff kent with 2 on and 1 out in the top of 1st. couldnt have been less intentional. but kent started to make a move for the mound, and BK looked ready to go. i was thinking yes... yes... this is it... but then the ump stepped in front of kent and things cooled off. very disappointing. im still waiting for that moment.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Feb 12, 2007 9:41 AM MST reply actions

Fogg

He had a couple of lights out starts last season (there was a CG, two-hit shutout against Seattle somewhere in there that I distinctly remember) but you're right, he's off a lot more often than he's on, and even when he's on he's usually not all that great. We probably could throw Jimenez or Buchholz or somebody in that spot and get at least similar results.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 12, 2007 10:02 AM MST up reply actions

Centerfield

When my son played HS ball, his coach seemed to always make him sacrifice if a runner was on base. It seemed to me that this constant bunting hampered his development as a hitter. I wonder if Corey Sullivan might make some strides as a hitter if given a chance, especially since Hurdle seems to be saying he'll stop using the sacrifice so much this year (it's about time).

Ringolsby seems to like Sullivan more than other writers. Most don't suggest he might compete for the starting job.

by jlikesrockies on Feb 12, 2007 11:56 AM MST reply actions

I've said before

If you look at the numbers, despite all the hype Taveras and Sullivan really aren't that different. Taveras obviously has more speed, but they're both guys who have virtually no power, don't draw walks, and strike out a lot. I think Sully's probably a better defender -- BTF speculates that Willy's rep as a good defender is a result of him being fast and not a very good hitter. I guess Willy is more likely to improve as he's younger, but poor strike zone judgment tends to be more of a chronic problem than you think; few players ever really shed the problem.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 12, 2007 12:08 PM MST up reply actions

Approach at the plate

Unlike Sullivan, Willy T seems willing to use his speed to both get on base and to steal bases.

Whatever speed Sullivan has is almost completely wasted on offense because he doesn't try to get on base and use it - he tries to be a slugger of sort.

by MADness on Feb 12, 2007 3:07 PM MST up reply actions

Their numbers may appear similar

but look deeper...

.282/.329/.440

.313/.354/.382

Those players look entirely different when you line up road splits against each other. It's shocking at first to see Sullivan's numbers on the road to be better than his home numbers, but this might be explained by his offensive style. Sullivan is not a slap and run swinger even though his skill set would best fit that. His line drive ability was likely mitigated by the soggy ball for the majority of the season, and he rode the pine for most of the Coors resurgence. Despite this note, he doesn't deserve another chance. I'm expecting early Coors to play like last year's, again depressing offense. So in reality, Sullivan is a weak home option.

Taveras, on the other hand, shows a split that looks closer to his ceiling as a player, with a high average, solid OBP, and little pop. (In an unrelated but odd addition to his split, Taveras stole 24 bases on the road, but only 9 at home, despite only a fifty point difference in home/road OBP). If the Rockies are looking for OBP and speed in the one or two hole, Taveras split best represents this need, where Sullivan instead resembles Spilborghs, who doesn't have the same home problems and seems like a better offensive option going forward.

What we can't determine is how well we should expect Taveras to hit. He doesn't have near enough at bats in Colorado (12 last season) to make an informed assumption, and it's possible he suffers the same fate in Coors as Sullivan. We'll see though, Taveras wants to get the ball on the ground and run, where Sullivan appears to want to drive the ball.

As far as defense goes, defensive metrics appear to be split. I love Dewan's plus/minus ratings, and from those, Taveras was one of the league's best defenders, and was a Gold Glove quality player last season. Watching him, his routes may not always be consistent, but speed makes up the difference. He has a wonderful arm, but Sullivan is no slouch in this category, and neither hold a tremendous advantage in the defensive category.

Last point, here are the K and BB rates for Sullivan and Taveras over the last two seasons:

Sullivan
K: 22.0 - 25.9
B: 6.9 - 7.7

Taveras
K: 17.4 - 16.6
B: 4.1 - 6.0

As crude an analysis as this may be, Taveras saw a greater jump in BB rate and a decline in K rate, which may suggest further development of strike zone judgement. On the other hand, Sullivan increased his walk rate, but surpassed no man's land in the K rate, where the quarter mark spells doom to players without power. So sure, both strike out, but Sullivan is in dangerous territory and got worse, but Taveras showed improvement (actually for three straight years). Other studies have shown that Coors supresses K rates, so Taveras may be helped even further beyond natural improvement.

by David "ohno" on Feb 12, 2007 10:06 PM MST up reply actions

I said this some time ago....

but it bears repeating....the day/night splits for the two of them.

Career
Taveras day (350 PA) .244 .289 .269 .558
Taveras night (874 PA) .300 .344 .367 .711

Sullivan day (260 PA) .325 .361 .486 .847
Sullivan night (570 PA).259 .318 .351 .670

I don't know what it means, but daytime Sullivan/night time Taveras would make a good player. Given the number of plate appearances, maybe this is more than a statistical fluke.

by DenverBears on Feb 13, 2007 9:28 AM MST up reply actions

Speaking of statistical oddities

I'm not sure if this has been discussed before, but has anyone examined Taveras' left/right splits?

Career splits:
Left: .242/.292/.314 5/10 SB/Total attempts
Right: .298/.341/.348 63/78 SB/Total attempts

Maybe Spilborghs should play against lefties?

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 13, 2007 11:18 AM MST up reply actions

That isn't a bad idea

by David "ohno" on Feb 13, 2007 12:47 PM MST up reply actions

Really weird splits

The stolen bases against lefties are easily explainable since lefties are looking over at the runner on first when going to the plate and they can do that pickoff move that's usually a borderline balk (seriously, when did it become okay to have a pickoff move that's CLEARLY designed to deceive the runner?) I can't explain why a righthanded batter would have trouble hitting lefties, though. And the day/night splits are just weird, but remember that Taveras was playing half his games at Minute Maid/Enron Park, which is usually roofed.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 13, 2007 1:09 PM MST up reply actions

just a thought

considering taveras was for the most part a full time guy last year, maybe those bad day splits indicate that he has trouble recovering quickly from games (since most day games are played 15 hours after the previous night's games). and maybe sullivan has done better during the day because..... i have no idea.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Feb 13, 2007 1:04 PM MST up reply actions