Thursday AM: The Cannons of Coors

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 7:47 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 30 comments

John Walsh at the Hardball Times rated the best outfield arms of 2006, and the conclusions he came up with have to be considered promising. We knew from observations that Brad Hawpe's arm was killer, and the stats back that up, rating him the second best arm in right field to Toronto's Alexis Rios. Hawpe gunned down twice as many runners as a league average right fielder and over the course of the season saved the Rockies an estimated 10.2 runs/200 opportunities (about a season's worth) from being scored on them. That's a win in the standings and then some.

What's more, however, Walsh's study showed that the buzz out of Houston regarding Willy Taveras's ability to throw darts has empirical backing as well. Taveras also had a league doubling "kill" rate and saved the Astros 5.9 runs. This earned him the number one ranking, easily outdistancing the second best centerfielder who happens to be our own Cory Sullivan (2.6 runs/200).

Matt Holliday is the weak link here, allowing 3.9 more runs to cross the plate than an average left fielder would. Still, Hawpe's and Taveras' numbers seem to point to the Rockies easily having the best outfield at holding runners within the division, depending on how Arizona's young crew fares. Walsh says he'll come out with a team-by-team ranking next time, as well as a look at the most valuable outfield throws of last season by Win Expectancy (Hawpe figures to have at least one that I can remember in this category) so I'll keep you informed.

* * * * * * *

Jack Etkin at the Rocky Mountain News has an interview and profile of Chris Iannetta today, yesterday he had a good one with Troy Tulowitzki, completing the rookie trifecta after the Jason Hirsh article on Tuesday.

Speaking of Hirsh, Patrick Saunders at the Denver Post talked to him and his brother Matt about their thoughts on his future with the Rockies. While the headline: "Hirsh a candidate for stardom," might be raising the bar a little high, I could see how the more realistic: "Hirsh a candidate for very good playerdom" wouldn't sell as many papers. Of course, if he does become a star, I'll be as ecstatic as everybody else.

* * * * * * *

These next two articles are only indirectly related to the Rockies, but Mike Fish's excellent work at ESPN.com investigating the role of steroids in the Dominican is a definite must read. Part One went into how the disparity between the lifestyle of an MLB player, or even of a six figure bonus baby, and that of the rest of the poverty stricken Dominicans encourages young players to use performance enhancers to get the attention of scouts. Former Rockies shortstop Juan Uribe has some things to say on the subject, among others.

Part Two looks into personal trainer Angel Presinal, who maintains an impressive list of clientele despite MLB's attempts to blackball him for an incident at a Toronto airport involving known steroid user and former client, Juan Gonzalez.

Update [2007-2-15 10:28:22 by Rox Girl]:

Baseball America's top ten list wasn't quite up when I posted this, as Rox Fan in TN points out, it now is. That first link is the free intro, subscribers can access the profiles by clicking here.

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Marcos Carvajal

I should mention that the Troy Renck article about Choo Freeman signing with LA also says that the Rockies would be interested in bringing Carvajal back as a free agent if he clears waivers. This means a minor league contract obviously, as the forty man roster is currently packed. Carvajal has been a different pitcher since he left the organization, and while his rumored attitude problems might be overblown, the drop-off in his performance certainly isn't. I think he might have to go all the way back to AA to work things out.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 7:53 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Not coming back

Marcos Carvajal was picked up on waviers from the New York Mets this afternoon according to rotoworld.com

by GenRfan on Feb 15, 2007 10:16 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

BA's top 10

is finally up. The top 10:

Tulo
Morales
Hirsh
Fowler
Stewart
Jimenez
Reynolds
Iannetta
Baker
Roe

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 15, 2007 8:22 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting that Iannetta's so low

The guys ahead of him are great, but having a catcher who hits for average, gets on base 40% of the time, is a solid defender and has a little pop should merit more attention. His weaknesses in the profile are all correctible with experience with the exception of his speed, which catchers usually don't have anyway.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 8:35 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

BA is all about potential

and with Iannetta, I think they're saying that maybe he's a 10-15 homer a year guy or something like that. I don't know. Seeing Reynolds ahead of Roe in BA is a little odd, though.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 15, 2007 8:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Reynolds was the one that stood out to me

Maybe Hirsh, as they project to be more mid-rotation types, which would put them on the level with Chris rather than that much ahead of him. Everybody else I can see as having a lot more upside.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 9:17 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

they say....

that they try to balance potential and production....

If it was just potential, then you'd have to assume Hector Gomez would be towards the top of the list.

The fact that Reynolds is "as refined" as he is likely contributes towards him being listed higher.

At the end of the day, Reynolds might be a September callup in 2007....while Roe might not be till 2009.

by sg8335aa on Feb 15, 2007 9:24 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It's definitely tricky

Especially after the top two, which are pretty clear cut. Cases could be made for all of these players to be anywhere between 3 and 15, figuring Gomez, Eric Young, Jonathan Herrera, Shane Lindsay and Samuel Deduno all have strong cases for inclusion as well.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 9:31 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see why

Fowler doesn't rank ahead of Hirsh, either... he has tons of potential and some performance to back it up. Some think Hirsh can be a top-of-the-rotation starter, though.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 15, 2007 9:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

One Word:

Asheville....

I think people have tempered their expectations and rankings of hitters coming out of Asheville until we see what they can do in Modesto.

Plus Hirsh just won pitcher of the year last year......and at least performance-wise, was one of the best minor league pitchers last season. Plus he did it at AA and AAA while Fowler has only produced at Low-A.

You have to give a bit more credit to the guys that "do it" at the upper levels......while slightly "dinging" guys that have only done it in short-season ball or Low-A until they face tougher competition.

by sg8335aa on Feb 15, 2007 10:13 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

which again brings us back to why Iannetta's low

As he's "done it" at upper levels and has similar upside to Hirsh (solid everyday above average catcher seems about equal to mid-rotation starter in my book) but that's splitting hairs. I'm just happy our system's so loaded that when we have these discussions it's about players who have actually performed with their talent, rather than speculative projects as in years past. Five years ago, our top 15 according to BA was this:

Chin Hui Tsao
Juan Uribe
Choo Freeman
Aaron Cook
Jason Young
Jason Jennings
Craig House
Shawn Chacon
Josh Kalinowski
Matt Holliday
Luke Hudson
Jose Vazquez
Randey Dorame
Elvis Pena
Corey Vance

Obviously we did well with Uribe, Cook, Jennings and Holliday. Chacon had mild success at the MLB level, but the rest have pretty much been washouts.Compare that to the top fifteen today, and it seems we could expect a lot less attrition, and there is potential for stardom with several of these names. Plus, as the last five names show, our system was pretty barren after Holliday. I don't think that's the case now with potential MLB regulars even into the 20's in our rankings.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 10:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

disagree on two points....

I think an "above average" is totally different when talking about pitching and catching. On a pure hitting level.....Ianetta doesn't hit enough to be a corner infielder or corner outfielder. We aren't talking about Piazza or Pudge here that can have their bat "play" anywhere on the diamond.

Taking guys like that out of the equation....he can be an above average starting catcher. The guy isn't a potential #3,4,5 type hitter. This isn't knocking Ianetta.....but more along the lines of putting his "propect status" in context. He isn't Victor Martinez.....who could make the switch to 1B and still have an above average bat for that position (just not "star" level).

I think that's why Ianetta is ranked lower. He's a potential long-time catcher for years. He's not projected to be a Top 3 talent at catching......think more Jason Kendal, Mike Leiberthal, Michael Barrett....types.......and not Pudge, Piazza, Victor Martinez...etc..

He's going to be really good for a long time (hopefully) but his bat is good for a catcher.....and that's why he isn't ranked higher. (not meant to dim Ianetta's star....just meant to put it in context)

by sg8335aa on Feb 15, 2007 11:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's where I think BA is missing something

And I think where you and I might disagree a little as well. What you say is true, Iannetta won't have the power of Piazza or Martinez, but through his career he should have a higher OBP than any of the catchers you mention, only Joe Mauer seems likely to post a higher one, and Joe's time at catcher figures to be relatively short due to his height and knee troubles.

I don't think V-tek, Barrett, and Leiberthal are good comparisons at all as none of them exhibited the combination of high contact rates plus high walk rates in the minors that Iannetta has. Barrett had the high contact rates but a relatively low walk percentage, the other two had higher walk percentages but made less contact. What's more, Lieberthal and Varitek were relatively late bloomers, while Iannetta's ascension through the minors has been remarkably quick for a catcher. I've been looking for a good comparison to Iannetta for some time, and he's defying all models (the best similarity score PECOTA could come up with was 48, meaning even BP's flipping coins trying to project him).

I'm not saying that this means he's bound for stardom for certain, just that his route to the majors has been unique for his position and we should be careful to balance observation from scouts with the remarkable performance they seem to be overlooking. Right now, as an optimist and a homer, I say that Iannetta will be among the top three at his position for several seasons.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 12:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Comparison....

the purpose of the comparison was not statistical based......more in "career perspective".

In other words, Ianetta is the type to get on a couple All Star Teams but not a guy that is going to be on 10 or 12.

Ianetta is unique as a prospect and I'm not debating this as a way to "diss" Ianetta in any way. I have high hopes for him myself.

However, his bat plays as a catcher (or maybe middle infielder) however he's a guy whose value drops dramatically if he was forced to play elsewhere. Since his bat doesn't "transcend" his position, I find it difficult to rank him much higher than he was.

Don't get me wrong, he looks like he's going to be a solid player for a lot of years. However, at the same time, I don't see him batting anywhere but #7 or #8 on a quality major league team.

So from that perspective.....I think you have to rate potential #2-4 ("mid rotation") type starters that **don't have much development left** as being a better prospect than a guy who will likely never hit above the #7 hole (despite potentially being a very very good hitting catcher). Yes, there's a chance his high OBP could qualify for the #2 hole, but he's way to slow to hit that high.

by sg8335aa on Feb 15, 2007 12:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

There is no reason to evaluate Iannetta's bat in comparison to other positions as there is no reason to expect him to need to change positions.

With a few rare exceptions (A-Rod, Tejada, Ripken, Bench, Piazza) even the great catchers and shortstops don't compare offensively to great corner outfielders or 1st or 3rd basemen.

Tulo is our #1 prospect because he might hit 20-25 home runs in a season. Ryan Howard hit more than double that number last season. No one cares how Tulo's bat would play at other positions because he is a very good defensive SS who appears capable of playing that position for most of his career.

I don't know why Iannetta's bat shouldn't be compared to the bats of other catchers.

by MADness on Feb 15, 2007 8:34 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree....

I think it matters for the "Top 50 Lists" that we are debating. In the grand scheme of things (winning championships).....of course it doesn't matter....but we're debating Top Prospect Lists here.

And that's where your wrong. Tulo's bat DOES transcend to other positions. He'd still be an above average 3B, all star 2B, above average CFer an average corner OFer. That's the difference, and that's why Tulo is ranked so much higher

by sg8335aa on Feb 16, 2007 4:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I REST MY CASE......

on the inaccuracy of BA and I qualify that by saying that I am a big fan of BA.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 15, 2007 11:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Uribe

We didn't do well with Uribe. The Chicago White Sox did. We got Aaron Miles for him, which is, um...

I definitely think we gave up on Uribe way too soon. At the very least, we wouldn't feel the need to rush Tulowitzki (who can be a better player than Uribe, IMO.)

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 15, 2007 11:54 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

11-30

Just an FYI.... the rest of the top 30 is available to the public on tulsadrillers.com.

http://tulsadrillers.com/news/drillers/?id=4429

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 15, 2007 11:45 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting thing

Tulsa did there, by indicating what year they expect a player to be in Tulsa. Seems like they're expecting a mid-season call-up for Dex and Strop won't be there until '09. That would mean, at least according to their thinking, Strop will start in Asheville this season.

by Russ on Feb 15, 2007 12:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

more Iannetta...

I'd reply again up above, but I hate it when the comments get so narrow on the page.

At any rate, I think Iannetta bats sixth on most "good" teams, and would only drop to seventh or eighth on teams that are particularly stacked like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox this year. And the Rockies apparently. Most teams wouldn't have enough offense at five other positions to drop him any further.

I think Baseball America's not looking at the base on ball numbers misleads in regards to the offensive output he's going to be having. 15-20 HR's with 20-25 2B's will still register as a .500 SLG in 400 AB's as long as he maintains the .300 AVG, and Iannetta's performance to date definitely indicates he's capable of that. Add in his walk rate, which should bring him that .400 OBP, and you have a catcher with a .900 OPS, or a middle of the order hitter. If he drops to 10-15 HR, his doubles are likely to be in the 25-30 range, which should still have him with an OPS @ .850 or so. That's a solid corner outfielder or third baseman, but not a star. It might be a little light at first or DH, but considering he's a catcher (average starter OPS of .777) that has some fine defensive skills, it should pop him into that higher category easily.

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 1:36 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Apparently my days of anonymous fandom are over:

Q: Brandi from Vermont asks:
Baseball America doesn't seem to be as excited about the prospects of Eric Young Jr filling his dad's shoes in Coors as the rest of us Rockies fans are. After a season where he made fantastic strides at the plate in Asheville and continued to show poise in Hawaii, do you see him rising on the list next year? How well do you think he'll handle more advanced pitching?
A:

Moderator: Are you writing from the Purple Row? Young has showed potential...

by Rox Girl on Feb 15, 2007 3:19 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Or maybe they're just assuming that there aren't that many other Rockies fans in Vermont. I wonder if they would recognize "Tom from Nashville, TN."

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 15, 2007 3:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Ringolsby

Did anyone else find the Cowboy's blatent disregard for typing correctly massively annoying? I really wish Baseball America would quit relying on him for Rockies prospect information. I mean, there is no way he knows the system as well as they do, because he isn't able to watch the pebbles in games like they do. I think half the information he gives is just lip service to the true make up of our minor leaguers. This was clearly evident in some of the write ups he did for the Prospect Handbook. BA needs to step up and assign someone in house to cover the Rockies minor leagues.

by Prospector on Feb 15, 2007 8:24 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

How many games

do you think the people at BA are able to attend for the Rockies system? Sure they do attend games, but more often than not they're talking with scouts and coaches. So I think the correct thing to say about the situation is that the people at BA have more sources to gain information from about Rockies prospects than Ringolsby does. Is that true? I'm not sure, but maybe that's the answer you're looking for.

by Russ on Feb 15, 2007 8:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The other thing...

Since BA was founded by Ringolsby (along with Allen Simpson) I don't begrudge him for wanting to maintain a role with the organization. It would be as if they decided to kick me off of Purple Row in the future when the Rockies are as popular as the Yankees and the website's rich enough to hire other writers. That would just hurt. Nope, Ringolsby gets an emeritus pass for his history with one of the best resources for baseball coverage. Now explaining why Phil Rogers still does the White Sox top ten, on the other hand, that's another question I don't quite have the answer for.

by Rox Girl on Feb 16, 2007 1:06 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Jorge De Paula

just signed a minor league contract. Good to see him back in the organization....wasn't he sent to the Yankees in the Craig Dingman deal all those years ago?

Anyway, from what I remember about him.....he's much like the rest of the Dominicans in our system now.....hard throwing, great stuff, lots of K's, bad control (Deduno anyone?).

Good to know that the Rockies have a type....

On a side note, when BP ranked the farm systems, Rockies finished 2nd....and one of the comments was "no group of arms can light up a radar gun like Colorado's youngsters"

Heave Ho....throw it as hard as you can boys.....

by sg8335aa on Feb 16, 2007 4:45 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Speed..

If "chicks dig the long ball" then the pitching equivalent seems to be the radar gun. yeah, it's a nice "wow" factor....but now bout being able to hit a spot and actually "pitch" and not just "throw"

But a minor league system needs throwers.

by Redhawk on Feb 16, 2007 9:03 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be nice to have both

in the same pitcher. Greg Reynolds, Oscar Rivera, Ching Lung Lo, Alan Johnson, Emmanuel Ulloa, are all examples of pitchers with good "pitching" skills, but only Reynolds has the stuff as well. His problem is that even his mid-nineties heat has no "wow". If Morales gets how to "pitch" and Reynolds gets how to "wow", the we should have a Smoltz/Glavine type of thing going on.

by Rox Girl on Feb 16, 2007 9:15 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

BOTH ?!?!?!?

now that's just plain greedy! BOTH gets you to the bigs pretty fast! So yep I agree...it would be nice to have both!

The big theory is usually: A thrower can learn to pitch, but a pitcher can't learn to throw. Like running speed, it's something you have or you don't.

And on the big league level, a good batter can hit a thrower, but a pitcher can keep him off balance. On the minor league level, it seems a good thrower can over power a lot of hitters. And if a pitcher can do both...then he's got real potential. That used to be why AA was a big step. There the pitchers where becoming pitchers.

Above opinion does have a hole in it: Guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson were/are throwers first.

by Redhawk on Feb 16, 2007 10:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs