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2007 Asheville Tourists Season Preview:

It's still early to know for sure where everybody is headed, so I'll probably have to change some things as the Spring develops, but after focusing so much of my attention all off-season on the big league club, I thought it might be helpful to take a look again at what's going on down on the farm.

Let's start with the Tourists, who it looks like will have a solid, underappreciated team.

Rotation (with K/9 and BB/9 in 2006):

  1. Josh Sullivan 9.56/2.71
  2. Brandon Hynick 10.01/1.14
  3. Keith Weiser 8.37/1.26
  4. Aneury Rodriguez 8.17/3.55
  5. Andrew Graham 8.58/3.28
  6. Andrew Kreidermacher 5.74/2.25

[editor's note, by Rox Girl] From the comments, it seems likely that Sullivan will be in Asheville to at least start the season.

With Shane Lindsay being out for the season, it makes sense that somebody gets bumped up to Modesto. I'm assuming it will either be Kreidermacher (who started last season in the Nuts' pen) or Sullivan. It could also be Hynick.  Or Weiser. Or possibly even Craig Baker. I'm really not sure, so if anybody has some inside info, please share. One other possibility is that Jacob Postlewait re-enters the rotation for the Nuts until one of these guys proves ready for the leap to the Cal League.

For the moment, at any rate, I'm assuming it will be Sullivan that gets a slightly premature promotion. With both Sullivan and Hynick, this season's rotation in Asheville would be one of the top three in the South Atlantic League, with just one of them it will still has a chance to crack that threshold. Hynick and Weiser were excellent in their debuts, and Aneury Rodriguez is slowly growing into his own.

The bottom two slots might seem like weaknesses due to infamiliarity, but that's only because we don't have enough space to properly hype the play of Graham with the pitching that's in front of him right now. In August and September last season he went 38 2/3 innings, giving up just 26 hits with a 41/11 K/BB ratio. Every season I try to make a list I label "PROSPECT?" of players who I hadn't thought of as part of the Rockies future, but who entered my periphery the year before. Graham definitely qualifies, and I'll be giving him closer scrutiny this season.

Kreidermacher is a little bit of a different story, I really don't think he'll make it all the way up as a starter, but he's an efficient machine when it comes to pitching. Working with fairly strict pitch counts, he had two complete games in his last five starts, and in all five he went at least seven innings. That's a valuable asset to have in the system if nothing else.

Bullpen:

William Harris
Ethan Katz
Sean Jarrett
Pedro Strop
Tommy Baumgardner

These are the noteworthy ones. If Pedro Strop and Simon Ferrer are held over from late season call-ups last year, they'd obviously be in that noteworthy class too. It should be a decent pen, anyway, and very good with Ferrer and Strop.

Lineup:

1B: Jeff Kindel
2B: Daniel Mayora
SS: Hector Gomez
3B: Matt Repec?
C: Michael McKenry / Brian Aguailar
RF: Victor Ferrante
CF: Anthony Jackson
LF: Jay Cox?

Bench:
Josh Banda
Ramon Rodriguez
Bret Berglund
Geoff Strickland
Spence Nagy
Steve Boggs

The weakness of our lower minors at the corners manifests itself here, as Repec should be a shortstop. Mayora's got the bat to do well at third, but his natural position is second, and he and Gomez would make a dynamite keystone combo. I'm kind of expecting some sort of fill in from the Indy leagues or something, as the answer I have above for Asheville's hot corner isn't very satisfying right now. The outfield is a bit below average, although don't expect numbers as low as these guys put up at pitcher friendly Tri-City. Both Ferrante and Banda seem more like Sean Barker types, but Ferrante's got the better chance of becoming something more. Berglund and Strickland have been disappointing thus far in their minor league careers, but should either break out in Spring, they could be the answer we're looking for at third base at this level.

Kindel and Jackson haven't been around long enough to get the same disappointing label, but their debuts last season in Tri-City were less than hyped. Kindel's secondary numbers were solid, however, and given that he's a left handed pull hitter with power going into a park with this thing, I expect much better results this year.

The catchers are another part of my favorite aspects of this team. I think Aguailar was overlooked (he went undrafted), and McKenry -who's got a bit more upside- makes a solid platoon with him. Aguailar's left handed bat won't be able to take as much advantage of McCormick Field as Kindel's because Brian lacks the power, but he showed in Tri-City that gets solid wood on the ball and can take pitches to either field. I expect McKenry to show a bit more of the pop that he had in college, as he plays a little closer to his hometown of Knoxville, TN.

Summary:

Overall, I expect the Tourists to be better this season than last thanks to the deeper, more mature  pitching. Defensively, this is a more solid bunch as well, and the offense should hold its own as long as Kindel steps up. If Sullivan and Hynick are both here to front the rotation, with Weiser and Graham backing them, then I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Tourists went to the South Atlantic League playoffs in 2007. It should be an exciting season in Asheville.

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Kindel
Kindel is a guy who I have been very excited about ever since draft day.

Will be fun to see how he does.

by MADness on Feb 9, 2007 5:22 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think
we'll see Harris as the main closer for the Tourists if Strop doesn't stick around.

I guess when you preview Modesto, Jay Cox will be with the team?

by Russ on Feb 9, 2007 5:28 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not sure where to put Cox
He'd take Banda's place if he's on the Tourists. I could see him anywhere from Modesto (given his talent) to Tri-City (given his performance last year in Casper).

by Rox Girl on Feb 9, 2007 6:08 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think
his performance was lacking due more to fatigue. He played all out for the Tar Heels during their failed run for a CWS.

I think we'll see him in Asheville.

by Russ on Feb 9, 2007 6:17 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Asheville
Some revisions to the team look necessary.  Pedro Chivilli was released after a one month rehab last year in Tri-Cities and Gabe Suarez I believe was traded to the Reds for "future considerations."  Lastly, there was no mention of Tommy Baumgartner who was a very effective lefty out of the bullpen.  

by lahardball on Feb 9, 2007 5:51 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep
Chivilli is currently on the Alexandria Aces of the ULB.

by Russ on Feb 9, 2007 6:05 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, I'll make the edits
I was thinking Chivilli was released, but I added the pen in a bit hastily this afternoon. Baumgartner was a definite omission.

There probably are still changes forthcoming as more news comes out of camp.

by Rox Girl on Feb 9, 2007 6:07 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My projected roster for Asheville:
Lineup:
C Michael McKenry
1B Jeff Kindel
2B Daniel Mayora
SS Hector Gomez
3B Jason Van Kooten
LF Jay Cox
CF Anthony Jackson
RF Kevin Clark
DH Vic Ferrante

C Brian Aguailar
1B/OF Josh Banda
UTIL Matt Repec

Rotation:
RHP Josh Sullivan (with one of Lo, Mattheus or Deduno repeating High-A, there's no room in Modesto's rotation)
RHP Brandon Hynick
LHP Keith Weiser
RHP Andy Graham
RHP Andy Kreidermacher
(I think Aneury Rodriguez will begin the season in Tucson like Chaz Roe last season --- you know, to limit his innings)

Bullpen:
RHP Will Harris
RHP Pedro Strop
LHP Tommy Baumgardner
RHP Sean Jarrett
RHP Craig Baker??? (if recovered)
RHP Ethan Katz
RHP Drew Shetrone
LHP Chad Bailey??? David Bechtold??? Devin Collis? (2nd lefty)

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:09 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A lot depends on cuts
I think I differ on who will be in Tulsa's rotation, as the only pitcher I see possibly repeating is Mattheus. That could very well be the case. I don't think I see us keeping as many of our minor league invites as you do into the season at AAA, at least not in the rotation. This is what I've got so far.

Colorado Springs:

U-ball
Keppel
Bautista
Rivera
Ulloa/Kaiser

Tulsa:

Morales
Reynolds
Deduno
Lo
Mattheus/Kaiser

Modesto:
Chaz Roe
A Johnson
B Durden
X Cedeno
Sullivan

Baker's going to be given the opportunity to start, so if he does break camp with Asheville in the pen, he's likely to go back to Tri-City later ala Kreidermacher from last year. I'm actually leaning to him following Kreidermacher's exact path and starting in Modesto's pen and then moving to Tri-City.

by Rox Girl on Feb 9, 2007 6:21 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A few things...
-According to Troy Renck, Denny Bautista will be utilitzed as a reliever next season

-Eric DuBose will be a part of the Sky Sox rotation.

-The writers of the 2007 Baseball America handbook seem to believe Deduno will begin the season with Modesto.  They know a whole lot more than either of us, so I'll take their word for it.

BA on Deduno:
"He will get another year in high Class A while he tries to gain consistency in his mechanics".

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:29 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well there you have it
Dubose in, Bautista out, and Deduno to Modesto. That means the Asheville rotation is going to be excellent this season.

by Rox Girl on Feb 9, 2007 6:34 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On the subject.
Is it kosher to post snippets of information from my Baseball America handbook?

I don't want to get you involved with any copyright issues.  

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:44 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe Rox Girl
has a different opinion on this, but I don't cite directly from BA anymore. There have been a couple of incidents in the past where BA's lawyers have contacted a site writer and SBN's president to handle matters.

by Russ on Feb 9, 2007 6:48 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah
I think John Sickels and his site have had a few issues with that.

Does it matter whether or not it's online or print content? Or is it all content?

Anyway, no more direct quotes in the future. I'll just give a brief and general summary of the info.

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:58 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It would probably
be acceptable for you to use key phrases, but always write where it is coming from and place it in quotes.

And if anyone has forgotten how to cite, just look it up in your MLA handbook. Oh, wow, that's a really bad joke.

by Russ on Feb 9, 2007 9:15 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

MLA... haha
I forgot all about that.  Law school has an entirely different brand of citations.
I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 9, 2007 9:44 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I WOULD THINK THAT STROP WILL BE .....
the stopper at Modesto and Ferrer, because of his numbers and age will be at Modesto or Tulsa...he's old for Cal League but fairly young for a Knuckler.  Strop could someday be that power stopper for the Rockies.  If Ferrer can put up the same type of numbers as 2006 he may become a starter in the mold of traditional knucklers; Wakefield, Hough, Niekros, Wood, Candiotti and at times Wilhelm.  Strop could be a K/IP, someday in the bigs.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 9, 2007 6:16 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think Strop is too raw for Modesto
Modesto's bullpen is looking pretty good without him anyway....

Andrew Johnston
David Patton
Brett Strickland
Jon George
Simon Ferrer
Buzz Vargas
Adam Bright / James Burok / Chad Bailey

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:20 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bright will move up
I wouldn't be surprised if they had Patton skip Modesto also given his age and how well he did last season. The Rockies have to either push Strop or lose him, so I think he's more likely to hit Modesto than Ferrer at this point.

by Rox Girl on Feb 9, 2007 6:24 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe
Bright could go either way.  He's probably ready for Double-A, but he's still young enough to repeat High-A.  I guess it depends on whether or not Jentry Beckstead or Judd Songster are back in Double-A to open 07.

Anyway, I base most of my projections and opinions on what I've read or heard from Baseball America.

BA Handbook on Pedro Strop:
"He won't be rushed and will open 2007 in low Class A"

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 6:39 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AN AMERICAN LEAGUE DIRECTOR OF PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
told me that they LAUGH at Baseball America's player rankings, top tens, and 2010 type starting lineups.  My humble observation is that a lot of you guys analyze your observations and justifications a lot deeper than the majority of publications.  You don't need them as resources.  Keep the purity of your research and observations.  It's more interesting and probably more accurate.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 9, 2007 7:00 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really? You got to be kidding.
Baseball America is the undisputable #1 source for information on prospects and minor leaguers.  GMs and other front office personal sometimes consult and rely on BA.

"Properly analyzing and ranking prospects is not an easy job, as any general manager will tell you.  But any GM will also tell you that he has a Baseball America Prospect Handbook on his desk."
-Pat Gillick, GM of the Philadelphia Phillies

"When it comes to prospects, no one looks into that crystal ball better than the people at Baseball America.  This book is their crowning achievement."
-Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland A's

"We will continue to depend on the judgment and recommendations of our scouting staff.  But, like so many fans, we will also turn to Baseball America's Prospect Handbook for additional perspective."
-Dayton Moore, GM of the Kansas City Royals

Trust me, they know a whole lot more about prospects than any of us ever will.

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 7:14 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WHAT DO YOU EXPECT THOSE GMs TO SAY
BA is often inaccurate?  Pull up a 4 year old copy and look at their projections.  You under estimate your Purplerow Colleagues.  Myself excluded from the expert group.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 9, 2007 7:20 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DON'T GET ME WRONG....I LOVE READING BA
but it's not that accurate.....Scouting is just as much a crap shoot....look at the first round drafts over the history of the draft and see how few stars, even starters, come out of the 1st round...and the front office people are giving them every chance to succeed so that THEIR picks look successful.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 9, 2007 7:24 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well yeah
That's the case in pretty much any sport.  Have a look at Rivals (or any "prospect" site) and their college football and basketball rankings and see how many of those players turned into studs.

BTW, football and basketball scouts have the same problems that baseball scouts do, overvaluing guys with lots of "tools" but not-so-great performance, and undervaluing guys who play well but don't have a lot of tools.  That's why you get five-star prospects who are busts and three-star guys (or lower) who turn out to be studs.

There are lots of other factors that go into it, too... baseball players from "cold weather" states tend to get less notice.  I have never understood the whole deal about "athletes" from Florida or Texas, as though the kids from Ohio are just a bunch of slackers or something.

I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 9, 2007 8:16 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Experts"
I think you overestimate the knowledge of posters on this site.

I don't think Rox Girl, Russ, OhNoKoolAid or any of the other so-called "experts" have seen the majority of minor leaguers within the system even play.  We are not "experts".  The only people I would consider experts are those who travel around the country and evaluate talent for a living (i.e. scouts--- whom BA consults with).  

How can you pass judgment on a player you've never seen play or one that you`ve seen only briefly?

Statistics only go so far.

For example, I'm probably the only one around here (other than maybe Rockiesbiggestfan) who has seen prospects such as Aneury Rodriguez, Hector Gomez, Pedro Strop and Brandon Hynick play.  How could I possibly give an honest evaluation or form a valid opinion on these players if I have only seen them once or twice and have no formal training?

"Experts" know how to properly evaluate talent and they usually see these prospects on a semi-regular basis.

That's why it's wise to rely on those who truly know what they're talking about (scouts, coaches & instructors >>> Baseball America).  

</end incoherent rant>

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 8:29 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd like to add
Scouts make mistakes and occasionally undervalue/overvalue players.  Baseball America sometimes misprints information or is just flat-out incorrect.  Nothing is perfect or completely accurate, I'm just saying their opinions are obviously more valid and valuable than ours.  That was my main point.
R you in?

by malakian on Feb 9, 2007 8:41 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Perfectly said malakian
I couldnt agree more. And your right, I have gotten the opportunity to watch each of the players mentioned, but even I am basing my evaluations on only the three to seven times I got to watch each perform.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Feb 10, 2007 12:06 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just to be clear...
What I was trying to say is that I value the opinions of those I consider experts over fans and other unqualified media outlets (like Troy E. Renck).  However, I wasn't trying to invalidate, demean or insult Rox Girl, Russ, OhNo or any other posters.   I respect and appreciate the opinions and information given by the knowledgeable members of this site.

Anyway...

David, you went up to Casper last season? Did you see Hynick pitch?  What's your opinion of him?

BTW, you need to post more.  Take a break from the college lifestyle once in a while.
I enjoy reading about your first hand experiences with prospects.

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 10, 2007 1:05 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Revisions, Clarifications, etc...
Alright, this reply will probably sound a little defensive and egotistical, but I don't mean it that way. It's just I thought I needed to clarify a little on what malakian was alluding to.

BA>Rox Girl=true. And MiLB.com for that matter. They have more access to more scouts and front offices and coaches than I do. Heck, in the professional ranks, I've only had an e-mail conversation with one coach, so in that last category they have me beat by a country mile. BA gets placements wrong sometimes because players develop at different paces and injuries force unexpected moves, but I'd generally trust what they put down, though. MiLB.com's raw info is good, but Mayo and Winston don't always do the best job of analysis, I think BA has them beat hands down in this.

That said, what I post on the blog isn't entirely derived from statistical or internet sources. Some of it comes from real people who are in positions everybody here would regard as authoritative. To be sure, I would like to give these men (no women sources yet) more credit than I can, but in almost every case they are risking their jobs by sharing stuff with me in the first place.

Because of this, I probably err on the side of not sharing as much as I could. Let me give some examples:

"Authoritative" info:

  1. Brian Aguailar: good defender and pitch caller, hits for average, but not enough power to play at the top level. Slow release to second.
  2. Michael McKenry - impressive enough power, slow bat through the box, reminds source of Closser. Catching skills need refinement
  3. Andy Graham - heavy sink on fastball, but possibly not enough velocity (86-90 range, as high as 92). Good change, but breaking stuff will get him in trouble.
You've probably already heard the good stuff on Sullivan, Hynick, Gomez and Mayora if you get BA or follow prospects regularly, much of what I heard on them was re-hashed info.

Everything else about the post was pretty much from my backside. I've got a little more dish on Will Harris, but I want to clarify what I was told. Frankly, I forgot to ask about Jay Cox, which I feel bad about since Russ brought him up. I plan on fixing that soon.

So when I told you last season to watch Josh Sullivan in Tri-City and Pedro Strop in Casper, I wasn't just saying that because I had a hunch. When I tell you this year to watch Baker and Silano in Tri-City or Jhoulys Chacin in Casper, again, I would take that advice very seriously because it's not just coming from me.

As far as viewing prospects in person, malakian's right. But thankfully we have other tools available today which allow us to do the next best thing. Again, if somebody's livelihood/career wasn't at stake and if I wasn't afraid of a lawsuit, I'd share everything I have access to with you guys. Eventually, I have confidence all this stuff will be readily available, although there might be a cost involved with seeing it similar to MLB.TV. Of the players in Asheville, the only starters I haven't seen in person or in any other medium at this point are McKenry (at the plate, I've seen some of his defense), Jackson, Graham, Kreidermacher, Ferrante and Repec. Josh Banda also if he starts.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 7:02 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Asheville
McHenry appears to be well thought of in the organization and was invited to Denver with the other January prospects.  Pitchers like to pitch to him and he was reported in the Tri Cities newspaper as refusing to be brushed off, really able to work with young players (as if he was an old man!).  Buzz Vargas may not be ready to break camp with any team; he had a season ending injury and Tommy John surgery.

by lahardball on Feb 10, 2007 8:23 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

McKenry
Definitely well thought of within the organization. I heard that about pitchers liking him too, mostly the concerns with his defense the scout told me were with blocking pitches in the dirt and his move to second. Both of which are expected to improve as he climbs through the organization.

You don't believe Buzz will have a miraculous recovery? Thanks for the tip.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 8:32 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oooo another insider
Thanks for the info on Vargas.  There hasn't been any public news on him since last August and I wasn't aware of his injury status.  Have you heard anything about Sandy Nin?

So, let me see if I've got the people with "insider information" down.

Rockiesbiggestfan:  Communicates with front office personnel like Bill Geivett.
Rox Girl: Occasionally emails someone within the organization.
Me: Occasionally talks with minor league coaches and players.
Lahardball:  ??? --- But has insider information (like injury updates and minor league schedules).

R you in?

by malakian on Feb 10, 2007 12:36 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Correction
RBF has previously exchanged emails with Bill Schmidt, not Bill Geivett
R you in?

by malakian on Feb 10, 2007 1:28 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think that's mostly it
I value OhNo's opinions as much as anybody when he's able to make a call on players from first hand obsevation, RBF, too of course, and Russ is invaluable in knowing college players before the draft and you and sg8335aa seem to do well with picking up wire feeds.

Together we seem to have the Rockies almost covered. I don't think Etkin and Moss will lose sleep over losing their jobs anytime soon, though.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 1:52 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Unfortunately
Too bad, I see major potential for improvement over those two. :(

by MADness on Feb 10, 2007 3:12 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SPEAKING OF SEEING PLAYERS.......
how many of you guys will be going to Spring Training?

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 10, 2007 2:18 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm (probably) going
Details haven't been finalized, but I do have tickets to the games from March 3-7.  I may not stay for the game on the 7th though.
I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 10, 2007 2:20 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm going to be in Chicago that weekend
But I'll be able to get to Arizona later in the month, probably around the 20th for a few days. I can't tell you how excited I am for baseball to start again.

by Rox Girl on Feb 10, 2007 2:40 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh yeah
I have to plan my trip during my spring break, which is early in the month.  It'll be great to go to Arizona and get away from this *** cold weather we've been having.  Seriously, if I wanted to deal with this, I would have gone to school somewhere up north.  Global warming my ass.
I've got a bad habit of picking losers... Rockies, Vanderbilt, Grizzlies...

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 10, 2007 2:48 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No spring training, but...
I plan on attending the bulk of Tulsa's opening homestand, so I'll relay what I see.

On a side note, my brother will be heading to Florida to check out the action in the Marlins' camp, which would be another intruiging destination to watch excellent young talent.

by David "ohno" on Feb 10, 2007 10:09 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'LL BE THERE.......
3/23 to camp break.

by 86 wins in 07 on Feb 10, 2007 4:15 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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