2007 Asheville Tourists Season Preview:
It's still early to know for sure where everybody is headed, so I'll probably have to change some things as the Spring develops, but after focusing so much of my attention all off-season on the big league club, I thought it might be helpful to take a look again at what's going on down on the farm.
Let's start with the Tourists, who it looks like will have a solid, underappreciated team.
Rotation (with K/9 and BB/9 in 2006):
- Josh Sullivan 9.56/2.71
- Brandon Hynick 10.01/1.14
- Keith Weiser 8.37/1.26
- Aneury Rodriguez 8.17/3.55
- Andrew Graham 8.58/3.28
- Andrew Kreidermacher 5.74/2.25
[editor's note, by Rox Girl] From the comments, it seems likely that Sullivan will be in Asheville to at least start the season.
With Shane Lindsay being out for the season, it makes sense that somebody gets bumped up to Modesto. I'm assuming it will either be Kreidermacher (who started last season in the Nuts' pen) or Sullivan. It could also be Hynick. Or Weiser. Or possibly even Craig Baker. I'm really not sure, so if anybody has some inside info, please share. One other possibility is that Jacob Postlewait re-enters the rotation for the Nuts until one of these guys proves ready for the leap to the Cal League.
For the moment, at any rate, I'm assuming it will be Sullivan that gets a slightly premature promotion. With both Sullivan and Hynick, this season's rotation in Asheville would be one of the top three in the South Atlantic League, with just one of them it will still has a chance to crack that threshold. Hynick and Weiser were excellent in their debuts, and Aneury Rodriguez is slowly growing into his own.
The bottom two slots might seem like weaknesses due to infamiliarity, but that's only because we don't have enough space to properly hype the play of Graham with the pitching that's in front of him right now. In August and September last season he went 38 2/3 innings, giving up just 26 hits with a 41/11 K/BB ratio. Every season I try to make a list I label "PROSPECT?" of players who I hadn't thought of as part of the Rockies future, but who entered my periphery the year before. Graham definitely qualifies, and I'll be giving him closer scrutiny this season.
Kreidermacher is a little bit of a different story, I really don't think he'll make it all the way up as a starter, but he's an efficient machine when it comes to pitching. Working with fairly strict pitch counts, he had two complete games in his last five starts, and in all five he went at least seven innings. That's a valuable asset to have in the system if nothing else.
Bullpen:
William Harris
Ethan Katz
Sean Jarrett
Pedro Strop
Tommy Baumgardner
These are the noteworthy ones. If Pedro Strop and Simon Ferrer are held over from late season call-ups last year, they'd obviously be in that noteworthy class too. It should be a decent pen, anyway, and very good with Ferrer and Strop.
Lineup:
1B: Jeff Kindel
2B: Daniel Mayora
SS: Hector Gomez
3B: Matt Repec?
C: Michael McKenry / Brian Aguailar
RF: Victor Ferrante
CF: Anthony Jackson
LF: Jay Cox?
Bench:
Josh Banda
Ramon Rodriguez
Bret Berglund
Geoff Strickland
Spence Nagy
Steve Boggs
The weakness of our lower minors at the corners manifests itself here, as Repec should be a shortstop. Mayora's got the bat to do well at third, but his natural position is second, and he and Gomez would make a dynamite keystone combo. I'm kind of expecting some sort of fill in from the Indy leagues or something, as the answer I have above for Asheville's hot corner isn't very satisfying right now. The outfield is a bit below average, although don't expect numbers as low as these guys put up at pitcher friendly Tri-City. Both Ferrante and Banda seem more like Sean Barker types, but Ferrante's got the better chance of becoming something more. Berglund and Strickland have been disappointing thus far in their minor league careers, but should either break out in Spring, they could be the answer we're looking for at third base at this level.
Kindel and Jackson haven't been around long enough to get the same disappointing label, but their debuts last season in Tri-City were less than hyped. Kindel's secondary numbers were solid, however, and given that he's a left handed pull hitter with power going into a park with this thing, I expect much better results this year.
The catchers are another part of my favorite aspects of this team. I think Aguailar was overlooked (he went undrafted), and McKenry -who's got a bit more upside- makes a solid platoon with him. Aguailar's left handed bat won't be able to take as much advantage of McCormick Field as Kindel's because Brian lacks the power, but he showed in Tri-City that gets solid wood on the ball and can take pitches to either field. I expect McKenry to show a bit more of the pop that he had in college, as he plays a little closer to his hometown of Knoxville, TN.
Summary:
Overall, I expect the Tourists to be better this season than last thanks to the deeper, more mature pitching. Defensively, this is a more solid bunch as well, and the offense should hold its own as long as Kindel steps up. If Sullivan and Hynick are both here to front the rotation, with Weiser and Graham backing them, then I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the Tourists went to the South Atlantic League playoffs in 2007. It should be an exciting season in Asheville.
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43 comments
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Kindel
Will be fun to see how he does.
by MADness on
Feb 9, 2007 5:22 PM MST
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I think
I guess when you preview Modesto, Jay Cox will be with the team?
by Russ on
Feb 9, 2007 5:28 PM MST
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I'm not sure where to put Cox
by Rox Girl on
Feb 9, 2007 6:08 PM MST
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Asheville
by lahardball on
Feb 9, 2007 5:51 PM MST
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Yep
by Russ on
Feb 9, 2007 6:05 PM MST
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Thanks, I'll make the edits
There probably are still changes forthcoming as more news comes out of camp.
by Rox Girl on
Feb 9, 2007 6:07 PM MST
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My projected roster for Asheville:
C Michael McKenry
1B Jeff Kindel
2B Daniel Mayora
SS Hector Gomez
3B Jason Van Kooten
LF Jay Cox
CF Anthony Jackson
RF Kevin Clark
DH Vic Ferrante
C Brian Aguailar
1B/OF Josh Banda
UTIL Matt Repec
Rotation:
RHP Josh Sullivan (with one of Lo, Mattheus or Deduno repeating High-A, there's no room in Modesto's rotation)
RHP Brandon Hynick
LHP Keith Weiser
RHP Andy Graham
RHP Andy Kreidermacher
(I think Aneury Rodriguez will begin the season in Tucson like Chaz Roe last season --- you know, to limit his innings)
Bullpen:
RHP Will Harris
RHP Pedro Strop
LHP Tommy Baumgardner
RHP Sean Jarrett
RHP Craig Baker??? (if recovered)
RHP Ethan Katz
RHP Drew Shetrone
LHP Chad Bailey??? David Bechtold??? Devin Collis? (2nd lefty)
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:09 PM MST
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A lot depends on cuts
Colorado Springs:
U-ball
Keppel
Bautista
Rivera
Ulloa/Kaiser
Tulsa:
Morales
Reynolds
Deduno
Lo
Mattheus/Kaiser
Modesto:
Chaz Roe
A Johnson
B Durden
X Cedeno
Sullivan
Baker's going to be given the opportunity to start, so if he does break camp with Asheville in the pen, he's likely to go back to Tri-City later ala Kreidermacher from last year. I'm actually leaning to him following Kreidermacher's exact path and starting in Modesto's pen and then moving to Tri-City.
by Rox Girl on
Feb 9, 2007 6:21 PM MST
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A few things...
-Eric DuBose will be a part of the Sky Sox rotation.
-The writers of the 2007 Baseball America handbook seem to believe Deduno will begin the season with Modesto. They know a whole lot more than either of us, so I'll take their word for it.
BA on Deduno:
"He will get another year in high Class A while he tries to gain consistency in his mechanics".
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:29 PM MST
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Well there you have it
by Rox Girl on
Feb 9, 2007 6:34 PM MST
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On the subject.
I don't want to get you involved with any copyright issues.
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:44 PM MST
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Maybe Rox Girl
by Russ on
Feb 9, 2007 6:48 PM MST
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Yeah
Does it matter whether or not it's online or print content? Or is it all content?
Anyway, no more direct quotes in the future. I'll just give a brief and general summary of the info.
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:58 PM MST
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It would probably
And if anyone has forgotten how to cite, just look it up in your MLA handbook. Oh, wow, that's a really bad joke.
by Russ on
Feb 9, 2007 9:15 PM MST
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MLA... haha
by Rox Fan in TN on
Feb 9, 2007 9:44 PM MST
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I WOULD THINK THAT STROP WILL BE .....
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 9, 2007 6:16 PM MST
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I think Strop is too raw for Modesto
Andrew Johnston
David Patton
Brett Strickland
Jon George
Simon Ferrer
Buzz Vargas
Adam Bright / James Burok / Chad Bailey
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:20 PM MST
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Bright will move up
by Rox Girl on
Feb 9, 2007 6:24 PM MST
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Maybe
Anyway, I base most of my projections and opinions on what I've read or heard from Baseball America.
BA Handbook on Pedro Strop:
"He won't be rushed and will open 2007 in low Class A"
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 6:39 PM MST
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AN AMERICAN LEAGUE DIRECTOR OF PLAYER DEVELOPMENT
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 9, 2007 7:00 PM MST
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Really? You got to be kidding.
"Properly analyzing and ranking prospects is not an easy job, as any general manager will tell you. But any GM will also tell you that he has a Baseball America Prospect Handbook on his desk."
-Pat Gillick, GM of the Philadelphia Phillies
"When it comes to prospects, no one looks into that crystal ball better than the people at Baseball America. This book is their crowning achievement."
-Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland A's
"We will continue to depend on the judgment and recommendations of our scouting staff. But, like so many fans, we will also turn to Baseball America's Prospect Handbook for additional perspective."
-Dayton Moore, GM of the Kansas City Royals
Trust me, they know a whole lot more about prospects than any of us ever will.
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 7:14 PM MST
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WHAT DO YOU EXPECT THOSE GMs TO SAY
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 9, 2007 7:20 PM MST
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DON'T GET ME WRONG....I LOVE READING BA
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 9, 2007 7:24 PM MST
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Well yeah
BTW, football and basketball scouts have the same problems that baseball scouts do, overvaluing guys with lots of "tools" but not-so-great performance, and undervaluing guys who play well but don't have a lot of tools. That's why you get five-star prospects who are busts and three-star guys (or lower) who turn out to be studs.
There are lots of other factors that go into it, too... baseball players from "cold weather" states tend to get less notice. I have never understood the whole deal about "athletes" from Florida or Texas, as though the kids from Ohio are just a bunch of slackers or something.
by Rox Fan in TN on
Feb 9, 2007 8:16 PM MST
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"Experts"
I don't think Rox Girl, Russ, OhNoKoolAid or any of the other so-called "experts" have seen the majority of minor leaguers within the system even play. We are not "experts". The only people I would consider experts are those who travel around the country and evaluate talent for a living (i.e. scouts--- whom BA consults with).
How can you pass judgment on a player you've never seen play or one that you`ve seen only briefly?
Statistics only go so far.
For example, I'm probably the only one around here (other than maybe Rockiesbiggestfan) who has seen prospects such as Aneury Rodriguez, Hector Gomez, Pedro Strop and Brandon Hynick play. How could I possibly give an honest evaluation or form a valid opinion on these players if I have only seen them once or twice and have no formal training?
"Experts" know how to properly evaluate talent and they usually see these prospects on a semi-regular basis.
That's why it's wise to rely on those who truly know what they're talking about (scouts, coaches & instructors >>> Baseball America).
</end incoherent rant>
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 8:29 PM MST
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I'd like to add
by malakian on
Feb 9, 2007 8:41 PM MST
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Perfectly said malakian
by Rockiesbiggestfan on
Feb 10, 2007 12:06 AM MST
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Just to be clear...
Anyway...
David, you went up to Casper last season? Did you see Hynick pitch? What's your opinion of him?
BTW, you need to post more. Take a break from the college lifestyle once in a while.
I enjoy reading about your first hand experiences with prospects.
by malakian on
Feb 10, 2007 1:05 AM MST
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Revisions, Clarifications, etc...
BA>Rox Girl=true. And MiLB.com for that matter. They have more access to more scouts and front offices and coaches than I do. Heck, in the professional ranks, I've only had an e-mail conversation with one coach, so in that last category they have me beat by a country mile. BA gets placements wrong sometimes because players develop at different paces and injuries force unexpected moves, but I'd generally trust what they put down, though. MiLB.com's raw info is good, but Mayo and Winston don't always do the best job of analysis, I think BA has them beat hands down in this.
That said, what I post on the blog isn't entirely derived from statistical or internet sources. Some of it comes from real people who are in positions everybody here would regard as authoritative. To be sure, I would like to give these men (no women sources yet) more credit than I can, but in almost every case they are risking their jobs by sharing stuff with me in the first place.
Because of this, I probably err on the side of not sharing as much as I could. Let me give some examples:
"Authoritative" info:
- Brian Aguailar: good defender and pitch caller, hits for average, but not enough power to play at the top level. Slow release to second.
- Michael McKenry - impressive enough power, slow bat through the box, reminds source of Closser. Catching skills need refinement
- Andy Graham - heavy sink on fastball, but possibly not enough velocity (86-90 range, as high as 92). Good change, but breaking stuff will get him in trouble.
Everything else about the post was pretty much from my backside. I've got a little more dish on Will Harris, but I want to clarify what I was told. Frankly, I forgot to ask about Jay Cox, which I feel bad about since Russ brought him up. I plan on fixing that soon.
So when I told you last season to watch Josh Sullivan in Tri-City and Pedro Strop in Casper, I wasn't just saying that because I had a hunch. When I tell you this year to watch Baker and Silano in Tri-City or Jhoulys Chacin in Casper, again, I would take that advice very seriously because it's not just coming from me.
As far as viewing prospects in person, malakian's right. But thankfully we have other tools available today which allow us to do the next best thing. Again, if somebody's livelihood/career wasn't at stake and if I wasn't afraid of a lawsuit, I'd share everything I have access to with you guys. Eventually, I have confidence all this stuff will be readily available, although there might be a cost involved with seeing it similar to MLB.TV. Of the players in Asheville, the only starters I haven't seen in person or in any other medium at this point are McKenry (at the plate, I've seen some of his defense), Jackson, Graham, Kreidermacher, Ferrante and Repec. Josh Banda also if he starts.
by Rox Girl on
Feb 10, 2007 7:02 AM MST
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Asheville
by lahardball on
Feb 10, 2007 8:23 AM MST
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McKenry
You don't believe Buzz will have a miraculous recovery? Thanks for the tip.
by Rox Girl on
Feb 10, 2007 8:32 AM MST
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Oooo another insider
So, let me see if I've got the people with "insider information" down.
Rockiesbiggestfan: Communicates with front office personnel like Bill Geivett.
Rox Girl: Occasionally emails someone within the organization.
Me: Occasionally talks with minor league coaches and players.
Lahardball: ??? --- But has insider information (like injury updates and minor league schedules).
by malakian on
Feb 10, 2007 12:36 PM MST
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Correction
by malakian on
Feb 10, 2007 1:28 PM MST
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I think that's mostly it
Together we seem to have the Rockies almost covered. I don't think Etkin and Moss will lose sleep over losing their jobs anytime soon, though.
by Rox Girl on
Feb 10, 2007 1:52 PM MST
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Unfortunately
by MADness on
Feb 10, 2007 3:12 PM MST
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SPEAKING OF SEEING PLAYERS.......
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 10, 2007 2:18 PM MST
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I'm (probably) going
by Rox Fan in TN on
Feb 10, 2007 2:20 PM MST
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I'm going to be in Chicago that weekend
by Rox Girl on
Feb 10, 2007 2:40 PM MST
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Oh yeah
by Rox Fan in TN on
Feb 10, 2007 2:48 PM MST
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No spring training, but...
On a side note, my brother will be heading to Florida to check out the action in the Marlins' camp, which would be another intruiging destination to watch excellent young talent.
by David "ohno" on
Feb 10, 2007 10:09 PM MST
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I'LL BE THERE.......
by 86 wins in 07 on
Feb 10, 2007 4:15 PM MST
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