Tuesday Rockpile: Trade Deadline Edition

by Russ on Jul 31, 2007 8:51 AM MDT in Rockpile Comment 17 comments

The RMN covers what the Rockies may or may not do today before the non-waiver trade deadline, as well as the moves O'Dowd has made since he became the GM.

The article also leads us to believe that Garrett Atkins might be a possible trading chip in the fall, when his value would be higher than it is now. One way or another, the club will need to make a decision between Atkins and Stewart. Another year in Triple A probably won't do much for Stewart, and there aren't any public plans yet to move Stewart to another position.

According to the Detroit Free Press, the Tigers are in discussions with the Pirates for Jack Wilson. At the end of the article, there's a mention that an unnamed Rockies official said four other teams have expressed interest in Barmes. Will one

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Patrick Saunders profiles Manny Corpas.

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Recent Trades:

Teixeira to Braves; Dotel to Atlanta for Kyle Davies.

Reds send Lohse to Phillies for minor leaguer Matt Maloney.

Mets send two minor leaguers to Twins for Luis Castillo.

Dodgers send Betemit to Yanks for Scott Proctor.

Padres pick up Rob Macowiak, and Buster Olney's saying they also acquired Morgan Ensberg.

Red Sox acquire Gagne for CF David Murphy, 16-year-old Engel Beltre, and Kason Gabbard (who's performed well for the Red Sox this season).

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Update [2007-7-31 15:52:44 by Russ]: Apparently the Rockies were speaking with the Twins about a deal that involved Garrett Atkins and Juan Rincon as part of a package deal, but it wasn't anything serious.

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The Dodgers have agreed in principle to send Wilson Betemit to the Yankees for Scott Proctor.

Also, the Cardinals have acquired Joel Pinero from the Red Sox and cash for a minor league player to be named later.

Free Taylor Buchholz!

by lgh77 on Jul 31, 2007 11:31 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Atkins/Stewart

Why isn't that decision made in the next few hours, when it could be mutually beneficial to all involved?

by roxtalk on Jul 31, 2007 12:02 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I for one

would actually agree with letting the Rockies play out the '07 campaign as is. Atkins is doing well after the much-chronicled slump that had all of the Row eager to ship him out, Stewart may as well conclude the season in AAA as originally the plan (he'll almost certainly be up here in September and we can begin observing and extrapolating then). It wouldn't make sense, from my perspective, to make a trigger-finger decision at this point. Stewart is still an unproven major-league commodity and if he puts up a good showing during the anticipated fall look-see, you'd have a better knowledge of what you were getting as a replacement if/when you trade Atkins in the off-season; if his value increases then, we're also likely to get a better package instead of rushing him off at the deadline.

I agree that the decision between the two will need to be made -- the Rockies will either need to make a commitment to Atkins and jettison Stewart, or vice-versa. But the middle of their first solid season in quite a while is not the time for it. I too am very excited over Stewart's potential, and should he be tabbed as the third baseman of the future by Rockies brass, I certainly wouldn't turn up my nose at him. But now, I think, is not yet the time for the decision to be made.

Atkins and Stewart are putting up comparable power numbers this year; Atkins 15/61 and Stewart 13/60. Stewart hits for a better average (this year, at least) and clearly has better range (he has the advantage of being a natural third baseman rather than a converted one) but can someone who follows the Sky Sox more closely than I do shed light on those 22 errors? The chief reason we discuss getting rid of Atkins is his defensive liabilities, so is this just part of the learning curve for Stewart?

I fully believe he'll be a productive MLB player, but I agree with O'Dowd/the RMN that the time may not be now to suddenly foist the role on him.

Get Demented. I already am, and in severe emotional pain to boot.

by Silverblood on Jul 31, 2007 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed....

While Stewart has performed in AAA, he's not exactly lighting the world on fire. Having him repeat AAA wouldn't be a terrible idea....while the Rockies may decide this off-season, they can easily keep Stewart till the 2008 deadline or even 2008 off-season before trading him (or Atkins).

Stewart isn't hitting .350 and slugging .600 in AAA. His defense, while improved, still needs work. It might end up being a good thing if he's kept in AAA for another season. Plus it would give time for the Holliday/Atkins contract situations to play out. Its also entirely possible the Rockies keep Atkins but are unable to afford Holliday and Stewart replaces him in LF.

by sg8335aa on Jul 31, 2007 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lose a lot of value

Stewart loses a lot of value going to left field. Taking a guy who profiles as a plus defender at a key position and moving him to left isn't the ideal solution.

by MADness on Jul 31, 2007 3:28 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus you keep a below average defender

at third base, so you likely downgrade defensively at two positions, since Holliday is turning into quite the left fielder (by left field standards).

Plus, Atkins is one of many players due a raise through arbitration (others in contract stipulations) so as long as you assume the Rockies aren't going to blow the bank on increasing the payroll, Atkins is a logical player to trade. You have a player that plausibly could produce similarly to Atkins' 2007 line, you have a younger player with more ceiling (BP has discussed the potential for explosive breakout on players around 24 or younger), and one who is defensively superior that may be more inclined to age well at the position. So, instead of paying Atkins the likely four million increase through arbitration, you take that money and put it into a pitcher of similar value, or less, and use that money to improve other parts through free agency or contracts for other players.

That's basically the Oakland way. You suck all the good out of the cheap years, and when the price goes up, you flip the player for another valuable asset while plugging in a player of rough current equivalency.

If you want Holliday insurance, you have Seth Smith, but Stewart as a left fielder is not near as valuable as Stewart as a third baseman.

by David OhNo on Jul 31, 2007 3:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Errors may be the most overrated

evaluation tool in baseball, especially in young players. If you can remember at the start of this season, there were several analysts worried about Tulowitzki's defense, namely his range and potential for errors, but that clearly hasn't been a problem at the big league level.

Error totals in minor leaguers are often the result either a player learning the proper footwork, throwing mechanics etc. (these guys are often found in the low rungs), guys that are learning what there limitations are in making plays (Tulowitzki would fit this category), and guys that just aren't very good defenders but aren't being moved off their position because of other prospects, future potential, danger of the other position (second base, primarily). The errors I saw Stewart make in AA were most often of the second variety (trying to throw from his knees, backhands deep behind third base, diving stops turned into hurried throws). Most of these things are just being 21 years old and trying to make every play given to you, rather than just eating the ball, or taking more time to make the proper throw.

Now, it sounds like Stewart is also making concentration errors on routine balls, which can be attributed to youth, but more a lesson that he needs to learn regarding his focus. Every scouting report on Stewart since being drafted discusses his work ethic and desire to succeed, so these concentration errors are a bit surprising, but also should be easily correctable with more work.

I think the important thing about evaluating defense is to take in the volume of outs these players make, rather than the ones they misplay. Tulowitzki was thought to only have arm as a plus defensive tool, but through the use of zone rating, and Dewan's plus/minus we're able to understand the sheer volume of outs that Tulo makes and how his range may be the best in baseball.

That's what you'll get with Stewart over Atkins. You may get errors that go with the learning curve, but you'll get a larger volume of outs over Atkins. Garrett may not make the amount of errors, but its all the singles or doubles down the line that he'll allow over Stewart that will be the difference in their defense.

by David OhNo on Jul 31, 2007 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Thanks for summing that up (and the bit above about cycling players ala Oakland).

by MADness on Jul 31, 2007 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gagne to Beantown

rumors are floating that Gagne us headed to Boston for David Murphy and a few others.

I don't know much about the other prospects but this seems like a pretty mundane offer.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2007 1:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Update

Kason Gabbard and Minor League outfielders David Murphy and Engel Beltre to the Rangers for Gagne. Gabbard has been pitching great in the Red Sox rotation so that may be a steal for the Rangers.

Also, the Padres made a couple of deals in an attempt to get some offense. They picked up Morgan Ensberg and cash from the Astros for either a player to be named or cash and Rob Mackowiak from the White Sox for pitcher Jon Link.

Free Taylor Buchholz!

by lgh77 on Jul 31, 2007 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

is headed

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jul 31, 2007 1:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Karl Ravech

just said this was a disappointing day for the fans in Colorado. Sorry, but no. There really weren't any great options out there for the club to make a trade.

Also, last night Steve Phillips said the Rockies were trading "only for now, and for the future." Steve is like that guy in the ESPN commercial who talks out of his other end.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ on Jul 31, 2007 1:57 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

well steve phillips,

i'm glad the Rockies weren't trading for the past.

by Blake20th on Jul 31, 2007 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speak for yourself

I would've liked a Pedro Martinez circa 1999. Someone get on that time machine project.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jul 31, 2007 4:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only if you count that Clint Barmes

is still in the picture for the '08 second base job is today a dissapointment for the Rockies' fans.

Actually, to be fair, I can see why today would be dissapointing to the casual fan, who wanted to see the Rockies make some kind of move to improve the pitching. Those of us that follow the minors and understand the trade market understand why no deal is done, but the guy that watches a handful of games a week and attends the occasional weekend game may wonder why the front office is not trying to "bolster" this team with a Dotel, Gagne, etc. by dealing a Reynolds, or Morales, or Stewart.

Just an example, 32% of the fans in the RMN poll suggests the Rockies make a big move regardless of prospects, while another 40% wanted a move without dealing top prospects. While the slim majority did not favor losing a big prospect, you could say 70% of the fans in the poll wanted to see the Rockies add a player to help the cause.

We may understand why O'Dowd didn't do it, but that may not save him from further criticism from casual fans or opinionated collumninsts when/if the Rockies fall short of the playoffs, or worse yet, the bullpen suffers another meltdown.

by David OhNo on Jul 31, 2007 4:55 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

About Manny

"The responsibility he's carrying now, he's embraced," manager Clint Hurdle said. "He knows he's just keeping a seat warm, but we'll see where it takes him. I think we have all felt that this guy has a special arm."

I hate when Clint says stuff like this. Perhaps he is just saying it as part of his zen-master-esque mind games to keep his player's heads on straight (i.e. - telling U-ball he was pitching relief so he wouldn't get nervous) but it gives me ulcers (and if the sarcasm wasn't obvious, I don't have much faith in the psychological benefits of these statements).

Either he is wasting time playing mind games with a kid who has displayed an impressive lack of fear and a surplus of confidence over the last several years or else he truly intends to give the closer's role back to Feuntes when he is healthy. Either option makes me sad. :(

by MADness on Jul 31, 2007 4:50 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

History

Recent history implies that Hurdle will give the closers role back to Fuentes when he comes off the DL. Hurdle did the same thing to Buchholz back when Fogg came off the DL even though Buchholz had been pitching very well in the rotation.

Free Taylor Buchholz!

by lgh77 on Jul 31, 2007 11:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs