Wednesday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Sep 12, 2007 10:31 AM MDT in Rockpile

Denny Bautista will pitch for two innings of the pivot game this series tonight, followed by some combination of Mark Redman and Taylor Buchholz. This engenders a sort of odd calm in me, actually, like we're an old galleon without working rudder or sails but plenty of firepower drifting to an inevitible and conclusive battle. It's the confidence of the damned, I suppose, but it's what we've got to work with right now.

Woody Paige has once again pronounced the Rockies dead, and tries so hard to make the Rockies breaking the franchise record for wins in a season sound like a bad thing. While he's right about how nice it would be to have more pitching, remember he would have had us scrap the entire team in May and trade Todd Helton to some real contender because we'd be fifteen games out of first by June. Note how he disses Edwin Bellorin today after calling for his promotion from the Springs in the May article. Yeah, whatever.

Paige and others who see certain doom already for the team are usually basing their prognostications by figuring that team X has a certain winning percentage thus far, and if I just extrapolate that out, I can get a reasonable guess for the final result. Be careful with this type of easy analysis, as it doesn't take the schedule into account. For example, Arizona hasn't had a .500 record against the NL West all season, and they only have three games outside the division in the final sixteen games with a road trip to Pittsburgh. I'm not saying they aren't overwhelming favorites to win, but those nine games against the Dodgers and Rockies in particular will be what determines if they actually do. That's why I like BP's Postseason Odds Report, which does take all of this into account and figures the Snakes will finish with 89 wins, a game up on the Padres. The Rox will want to do better than the predicted 84 if they want to sniff the postseason, and winning unexpectedly tonight will probably help their chances tremendously.

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9-9

Playing .500 over the last 18 games seems reasonable to finish with the most wins in franchise history with 84. If we went 12-6 and finsihed with 87 wins, it probably won't be enough to over take SDP, which has an easier schedule down the stretch.

The real question is that how we finish impacts the expectations for next season. Let's assume we finish 86-76, best season in franchise history, it seems that it automatically sets the bar at the playoffs next season or else.

It's scary how important this off season is. If we don't put together the right rotation and pen, we risk falling back into the rebuilding mode albeit with more to build from than in the past.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Sep 12, 2007 11:42 AM MDT reply actions

Things may settle themselves.

The rotation has had a lot of problems due to injuries, but the Rockies can have a pretty good rotation next season without making a bunch of splashy free agent signings next season. Francis, Cook, Hirsh, Jimenez, Morales has the potential to be a very good rotation, though it might be nice to keep somebody like Rodrigo around in case Franklin needs more time at AAA.

The bullpen -- there's a nice back end already in place with Fuentes and Corpas, but unless our starters are giving us seven innings each time out, we need a better bridge to them than we have right now. There are some good arms already in the system that could be useful in the bullpen in '08 (Morillo, Bautista, Clarke, Newman) but it remains to be seen whether Morillo and Bautista in particular will turn out to be good pitchers or just guys who throw really hard. The good thing is that good bullpen guys can often be found off the scrap heap. Herges was signed as a minor league free agent and he's turned out to be one of our most reliable relievers. You don't have to pay top dollar to get decent setup men.

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Sep 12, 2007 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions

Bullpen

has been the achilles heel for how long. They should concentrate on the bullpen and try to make it as Hurdle proof as possible.

by DieHardRoxFan on Sep 12, 2007 2:16 PM MDT reply actions

Only canning him would do that

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Sep 12, 2007 2:35 PM MDT reply actions

FA compensation

We will need to pick our FA additions carefully as we would lose draft picks for signing Type A & B free agents.

We can't afford to stop the pipeline of talent into the farm.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Sep 12, 2007 2:37 PM MDT reply actions

Manny on getting extra outs:

Manny Corpas gobbled up five outs for the save Sunday and wanted more work Monday. He prepared himself for extra duty after a conversation with reliever Jorge Julio, who told him to be mentally ready after Brian Fuentes went into the game in the seventh.

"I don't care if it's three outs or six outs. I am ready," said Corpas.

Okay, does anyone else see the inadvertent humor in this? Although if I was Manny, I'd be steeling myself to be mentally ready when Julio got in there.

Get Demented. Standing by my guys forever.

by Silverblood on Sep 12, 2007 3:25 PM MDT reply actions

You're right about Julio...

...but why not bring in Corpas in a sticky situation with an out or two in the 8th? Hurdle did just that Sunday and Manny got the last five outs in a critical situation in a crucial game. Can't we see more of that the rest of the way? While I'm at...what would be wrong with having Herges pitch AFTER Hawkins and Julio for a change? He's been remarkably effective the last three weeks, certainly more than the other two, who I never feel the least bit confident about.

by moose14 on Sep 12, 2007 4:38 PM MDT up reply actions