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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

Monday Morning Rockpile:

Where the Rockies go from here is anybody's guess, but it's clear with the weekend's news that were we to somehow pull off the feat of clawing over three teams to a playoff spot in the last month, it will likely be by bludgeoning our opposition with our sticks rather than finessing our way to victory. Perhaps that's part of what makes yesterday's 4-3 win over one-run kings Arizona so special in its contrariness to the natural order of things.

So the Rockies have to get creative, but let's hope not creative enough to give soon to be released Brett Tomko a call this week. I only bring him up because he's pitched well against us this year and he seems like the type of past his prime guy the club has a hankering for. Of course, I think Tomko would be a marginally better option than Dessens, but not enough of an upgrade to be significant this late in the season.

One of the teams the Rockies still have to pass if they want to get into the playoff hunt this year is the Phillies, who despite being in a heated race right now are already salivating over the possibility of Garrett Atkins being available this offseason. You can believe that there are several other clubs watching what Atkins and Ian Stewart do this last month with as much interest as we are. While I'm pretty certain at this point that Brian Fuentes will get traded in the offseason, I'm not that sure about Garrett. As for the potential return should we deal both, there's already an established market for a team dealing a solid corner infield bat and a top notch late inning reliever in what Texas got for Teixeira and Gagne this summer. Atkins isn't quite to Teix's level at the plate, but Fuentes doesn't have the injury history and boasts a better recent track record than Gagne so the overall haul could be similar.

The Rox have to face Cain today and Lincecum tomorrow night, which could be rough. Even the Giants' Wednesday starter, Kevin Correia, hasn't looked shabby this season. That said, we need to win this series, and a sweep should get us right back into the thick of things with AZ and SD playing each other. With that in mind, hom much PT Barry Bonds gets takes on added significance. Bochy's promising he plays, I'm hoping Barry's knees say something different.

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Maybe we could sign
Nolan Ryan...he was serious when he said he would comeback for the money like Clemens did.  Or there is always Mark Redman.  

With Dressens getting lit up, and Fogg now with a sore shoulder we really need to be looking at adding a starter.  Ortiz apparently isn't going to be it. Is there a minor leaguer that is near major league ready ?

Resign Kazuo Matsui! Hurdle is still an idiot!

by Redhawk on Sep 3, 2007 7:54 AM MDT reply actions  

While I don't advocate Tomko...
it would be nice to find a way to get Dessens out of the rotation.  How can they do this?  With 26 games left, he is scheduled to pitch 5 times.  My suggestion is to take advantage of the 4 off days remaining this season and go with a 4 man rotation those weeks, which would eliminate 4 of those starts.  If things go bad and the Rockies end up completely out of the race, you can always go back to the 5-man rotation.

The Rockies have been lucky with Dessens so far (last game being the exception), but trying to win 80% of the remaining games with Dessens in the rotation is going to make a very difficult job nearly impossible.

by DenverBears on Sep 3, 2007 8:06 AM MDT reply actions  

Personally....
I'm in the anti-trade Atkins camp.  I don't see Stewart as quite ready yet (in the interest of full disclosure, I didn't see Tulo as ready yet either, so I could be wrong) and after his slow start, Atkins is one of the most reliable bats in the lineup.  I'd like to see the Rockies be serious about going for the playoffs next season and removing Atkins for Stewart would be a serious hit to the offense and the uptick in defense wouldn't be likely to make up for it.  

If Helton could be moved, that might be a different issue, given his salary and declining output, I'd be willing to accept the decrease in offense.

As for Fuentes, I wouldn't have a problem trading him, providing the Rockies receive a decent package in return.  He's clearly on the decline and closers are truly overvalued.  Having said that, if the return isn't good enough, I wouldn't object to having him around for another year.  He is very likely to be better than whatever retread O'Dowd manages to sign in the offseason.

by DenverBears on Sep 3, 2007 8:14 AM MDT reply actions  

I think the best way
to combat any declining output is to add more elsewhere.  The easiest place is catcher, where a return to form for Iannetta will soften the blow a great deal.  He's starting to put it together this month, and a hot September could go a long way in restoring confidence (both for him and the club in him).  I also thinks he needs a better partner, and will still plug away for Michael Barrett.  His down year actually works in favor of the Rockies, as it should keep his price down.  an Iannetta/Barrett catching tandem should be offensively sound if not dangerous, and Iannetta's defensive skills are still solid for everyday duty.

I think the outfield is also a place production can be added, and it comes at a decrease in playing time for all players not named Holliday.  Taveras has shown that with everyday duty he'll tired and breakdown.  Once Spilborghs got everyday duty, he too seemed to lose bat speed and suffered from overexposure.  When Hawpe plays too much against lefties, he racks up the K's, and perhaps more rest in the first half will prevent another second half swoon of sorts.  How do you share time?  Add Seth Smith, and map out a usage pattern where Hawpe and Taveras get 60% and Spilborghs and Smith get 40% of the playing time.  That gives you two lefties with pop, a righty with pop, one speedster, and three centerfielders.  If everyone plays relatively consistently, they'll all hopefully stay fresh and stay sharp.  Plus, if you play more matchups with these guys, you should also put these players in the best position to produce, and thus maximize the run producing potential of the lineup.

Lastly, second base could potentially see an upgrade through trade.  I like Matsui okay, but his work on the road and his lack of plate discipline woudn't make me heart broken to see him go.  Who knows, maybe Milwaukee shops Rickie Weeks, we swap Fuentes for him, and he begins to recover the offensive value everyone thought he had.  He's far from a defensive asset, but who knows what a player can do under the tuteledge of Walt Weiss?  He has the athleticism to at least be average.  Rickie Weeks is just an example, but Josh Barfield could be a bounceback candidate, and there are a couple prospects that might be available through trade.

As for Stewart, it's hard to see what more AAA time will do for him.  His month to month numbers don't show a destinct difference, so it's hard to say he was "fixing" anything or suffering from a correction in numbers.  I think he should be able to hit .270/.340/.430 in his rookie season, which isn't spectacular or Atkins worthy, but is still above average and allows the team to more effectively manage its assets.  If Garrett Atkins can land Matt Garza and another player, isn't the tradeoff of Stewart+Garza a net gain over Atkins?  Besides, Garrett is only hitting .247/.319/.427 on the road (and over the second half, it's improved some to (.282/.336/.491), so we shouldn't get overly carried away with Atkins' offensive value.  He gets the most out of hitting at home, and you can't blame him for it, but we also have to remember that Stewart will also have that luxury.  I think Stewart can match Atkins in average and on base in the majors right now, but it's the power where Atkins has him beat at the moment.  

Lastly, I think '08 is a good year to look for the playoffs, but we shouldn't get carried away with thinking from year to year, and look at the bigger picture.  The positive improvement of Jimenez, Francis, Corpas, and Tulowitzki as well as a farm system that is very close to being equipped to continually provide to the big league club has expanded the Rockies' window of competing a great deal.  I don't think moving Stewart in for Atkins dashes the hopes of '08 near as much as you suggest, since Stewart for Atkins isn't a zero sum question.  

You have to look at the equation as Stewart + return on Atkins, which can potentially tip the scales in favor of dealing him.  Of curse, I like the equation Stewart + Atkins - Helton much better...

by David OhNo on Sep 3, 2007 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

short reply to your lengthy one....
If Atkins can net Garza, then I am all for it, so as you say, I guess it depends on the return.  I guess I'm not that optimistic about the return the Rockies would get for Atkins, but I'd be happy to be wrong.

I'm in agreement with you on Matsui as well.  I also wonder whether the picks might be worth more than Matsui is worth in trade.  Of course, I don't have the slightest idea what the compensation would be for losing Matsui--and that would also leave the team a hole at second.

by DenverBears on Sep 3, 2007 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

Garza is just an example
but you'd have to assume the value would be high or he won't be dealt.  Was it Renck's article the other day that listed the Dodgers, Twins, Astros, and Angels as already interested candidates?  There's a weak free agent class and a lot of suitors, so I believe Atkins trade value is pretty high.

If your fears are correct and our return is a B and a C level prospect, I may change my stance, but I believe there will be sufficient value in the trade market this season.  

by David OhNo on Sep 3, 2007 1:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

News
-Edwin Bellorin was activated from the DL today.

-Jason Hirsh has been shut down.  He won't return this season.  

by malakian on Sep 3, 2007 1:46 PM MDT reply actions  

It's a good call by the club
no reason to rush him back when we have five more controllable years of Hirsh.  

We're too far out to chase the playoffs blindly, so better to make the conservative (or should I just say correct?) decision.

by David OhNo on Sep 3, 2007 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree,
We're nominally in it right now, but Hirsh will be more valuable to the Rockies next year and beyond, and they shouldn't jeopardize that when the odds are stacked so much against us to begin with.

We'll just have to hope to ride a hot streak from our bats and decent work from the Francis/Jimenez/Morales trifecta if we want to make the playoffs this season and hope for a couple more lucky breaks like Fogg's win over Webb yesterday. It's highly unlikely, but it's not like Hirsh would have added that much to our chances now that Cook's out for the rest of the season, too.

by Rox Girl on Sep 3, 2007 3:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

Scary
Sort of scary having a guy that huge going on a gimp leg.

The forces involved are just so large.

Better to have him take the time and properly rehab it.

by MADness on Sep 3, 2007 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agreed
That kid is big and to think he was playing on a broken bone just makes you cringe.

With all the rotation problems and becuase of the networks extended playoff series deal, the Rox may be better off in the playoffs than they are now in the regualr season.

Francis and UBall... and do it again and a again...

by roxhead on Sep 3, 2007 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

Bautista
Hurdle said they were bringing Bautista up.

I haven't heard much on him this year, anyone have a recent scouting report?

by MADness on Sep 3, 2007 4:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

HOW DOES.......
86 wins in '07 look as of September 3rd?

by 86 wins in 07 on Sep 3, 2007 6:40 PM MDT reply actions  

We're fifteen away from your take
Which seems a lot more doable right now than my pre-season guess of 89. We'll have to go 18-8 the rest of the way to hit that.

Given that most of our games are at home the rest of the way, I think 86 might turn out to be just about right.

by Rox Girl on Sep 3, 2007 7:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

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