Friday Morning Rockpile:

by Russ Oates on Jan 11, 2008 8:15 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 21 comments

In his latest article, Tracy Ringolsby answers a reader's question concerning the possibility of bringing back Josh Fogg, Jeremy Affeldt, or Jorge Julio. Why wouldn't Josh Fogg want to be the fallback option for the Mariners in case Erik Bedard isn't shipped across the country?

Should Bedard be sent to Seattle for Adam Jones and other players, Jones's replacement would be old divisional foe Luis Gonzalez. At least the team will have Ichiro defending the outfield.

Jason Jennings looks to get his career back on track as he is close to signing with the Texas Rangers. Both could do worse.

As Blez announced at Athletics Nation, there are major changes coming to SBN sites in the near future. One day in February you'll come to the site and you'll find a different-looking Purple Row. Don't be alarmed. Sure, it'll take some time to get used to, but it'll be more, I would say, user-friendly.

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May 1st

I thought that the May 1st rule was eliminated in the last PBA and players who were not offered arbitration could sign at anytime now.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jan 11, 2008 9:22 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

Don't know how that one slipped by me.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Jan 11, 2008 9:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

The Rockies really could use another Lefty in the Pen.....So we could get Affeldt back.

oh wait....that's right...He's a lefty, but he can't get out lefties...he's NOT A LOOGY! Good luck on that 4 year contract there Jeremy.

2006 TIME magazine "Person of the Year"

by Redhawk on Jan 11, 2008 10:06 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

SBN changes

Question about the SBN changes: Will there be an easier way to check for new comments than scrolling all the way down the page (I'm assuming there isn't some other way I don't know about)? Like a sidebar listing the most recent entries like there is for diaries?

by holly96 on Jan 11, 2008 11:23 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

There's going to be

an auto-refresh, which the newer and some of the bigger sites already have. Other than that I can't say much.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Jan 11, 2008 1:43 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

NL West - Winter Rankings...

Just came out with my NL West winter rankings. 1000 simulated games using park adjust ZIPS projections. #1 vs #1, #2 vs #2 for each team matchups then added and averaged. vr, Xei

Current 2008 NL West Rankings

by Xeifrank on Jan 11, 2008 11:57 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure you can appreciate our skepticism

Given how far off your projections were last season The Rockies wound up with a winning record against every divisional foe last season, a .589 winning percentage, and yet your results had us beating none of them if I recall correctly. Have you felt the need to address this in any way?

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2008 2:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Rox

RoxGirl, the projections were done before the season started last year. They aren't/weren't subjective standings projections, they took ZIPS as input data for all teams. I don't think anybody outside of the state of Colorado was predicting the Rockies to finish at or near the top of the division. Heck, they were in fourth place for a good portion of the season, and were a 13th inning three run rally away from finishing in 3rd place. Everything went right for the Rockies last year. They are a good team in a very tough division. Best of luck.
vr, Xei

Current 2008 NL West Rankings

by Xeifrank on Jan 11, 2008 10:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I'm thinking that it's ZIPS

That I should really have the issue with, as it was way off -more than with most teams- on a lot of our key players last season, and it seems to be going a similar direction this year. I'm not sure why, exactly.

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2008 10:37 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

ZiPS

ZiPS is just messed up. I used to think it was because it was using horribly wrong MLE factors (I remember, either two or three years ago, when Zach Parker projected better than Jennings); now I'm at a loss to explain what's wrong with it, but it's still producing the same sort of inexplicable nonsense that it always has. Fausto Carmona is projected better than C.C. Sabathia, despite the facts that a) ZiPS heavily regresses BABIP (as it should) and b) Carmona has never posted defense-independent numbers anywhere close to Sabathia's. From the Rockies, Seth Smith is being projected to outhit Tulo, despite being two years older and having an indisputably inferior performance record.

That said, it's not biased against the Rockies. I don't know the inner workings of the ZiPS system, of course, but I do know that it's damn near impossible to engineer a system that's biased against a particular team unless you really try to do so. There are a gazillion different careless mistakes that one can make in putting together a projection system (I speak from experience here, of course), but none of them would lead to something like that.

In other words, yes, by all means, dismiss ZiPS. But do so because ZiPS is stupid, not because you think it's selling the Rox short.

And - shameless plug - use my numbers instead! http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=po4mLQZde0-xbsgVRN9uRHw

by Heltonfan on Jan 12, 2008 10:53 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I was just looking at those this morning

Actually, in trying to figure out how to explain just how bad Nix is supposed to be this year. I don't mind you plugging them at all.

by Rox Girl on Jan 12, 2008 11:53 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Brewers

signed Mike Cameron, which will result in a move to left field for Ryan Braun after Cameron serves his 25-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance last year.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Jan 11, 2008 2:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Solid move for Milwaukee

Chicago made a big splash with big dollars for Fukudome, but given the benefits the Brewers will get from this at several positions, I think it could prove more valuable.

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2008 2:47 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure about that

I love this move for the Brewers, but then again, I think Fukudome is going to be pretty damn good as well. In any case, perhaps the NL central race won't be quite as pathetic this upcoming year.

"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Jan 11, 2008 4:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers favor Milwaukee

Braun was a -25 to -30 run fielder at third, Hall was terrible in center. Cameron's lost a step from earlier this decade when he was arguably the best center fielder in the game, but he's still decent, right around average in 2007 or possibly a tad below depending on who supplies your data. Hall should be about average at third, Braun isn't likely to be much worse than Jenkins was in left. In all, I'd say the Brewers save their pitchers at least thirty runs in this shift, probably and forty and possibly more than that, even. The difference between Cameron and Jenkins offensively is about 12 runs over the course of a season, make it 10 given Cameron's suspension and I see the Brewers getting close to a +50 exchange in all of this. For Chicago to do the same, they need to have Fukuodome and Felix Pie be that much better than Cliff Floyd and Jacque Jones were, and I have troubles buying that given Pie's performance to date.

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2008 6:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

There's also a chance Braun

can further increase the return by standing out in left field. Several media scouts have suggested that Braun would be a good centerfielder. While he was poor at third, it wasn't for a lack of athleticism (making his struggles all the more baffling) or arm strength. So long as he shows a proficiency in reading balls off the bat, I wouldn't be surprised if Braun becomes a top ten left fielder defensively. There's already little difference between Holliday and Braun offensively, but if Braun picks up left field quickly, Holliday will have another serious MVP contender to deal with.

by David OhNo on Jan 11, 2008 6:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

While I like the move

it throws into question the need to draft Matt LaPorta. The Brewers should have been well aware of Braun's ham handed nature before taking LaPorta and making him a left fielder. With Braun, Hart, and Fielder all playing the positions LaPorta is qualified for, and all three being relative star or near star caliber players, it makes the draft decision all the more curious.

by David OhNo on Jan 11, 2008 5:17 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Rosenthal's latest

says that Nix is the guy to get first crack, but that the Rockies won't stray too far from the thought of dealing for Mark Ellis or Mark Loretta.

In my opinion, that makes perfect sense. I'm skeptical of Nix actually making a career of it, yet there's no shame in seeing if your former first round pick has any value to the big league club. With the A's basically punting on '08, the Ellis offer will always be there so long as he's there, and he's a good fall back that is proficient in all areas without standing out in any.

Basically, Nix gets the first crack but won't be extended a long leash, and if Ellis is a viable fallback plan, than the Rockies should find a way to get solid production out of the position one way or another.

by David OhNo on Jan 11, 2008 6:48 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

I'm about in the same boat

There are several reasons to be skeptical of Nix, but also a handful to be optimistic. I just hope we can determine what's what quickly so we don't get stuck in an untenable position if he's not going to work out. I think it will, that he can at least make it as a starter for a few seasons, as my suspicion is that he becomes Ronnie Belliard with a better glove. Not a lot of walks, but decent contact and the ability to hit 10-15 HR a year. His defense will add a lot of value, making him a regular four to five WARP player with a couple years cracking higher. Even if that's not the case, though, there are some terrible second basemen out there. It seems Nix has to be more valuable than a lot of them. Unlike you, I think given his competition, he's made a wise career choice.

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2008 9:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious

I admittedly don't know WARP from Adam's house cat, as I've said before. But I have noticed a preponderance of poor play at 2nd across MLB in recent years. Your allusion to this makes me feel a (thin) hair smarter. I'm wondering: what's your take on the relatively lackluster play at 2nd and why it seems to be a problem throughout baseball?

I realize that SS is the "glamor" position, but jeez. This past year I saw some play at 2nd that was pathetic. What gives?

2007 NL Champions, baby!

by rockhead on Jan 11, 2008 10:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs