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Saturday Morning Rockpile: A fine nine

I've gotten myself into a debate with our friendly rivals over at AZ Snakepit that revolves around several assertions I made the other day, but one that I'm trying to drive home is that quantity of talent matters when overlooking minor league systems and trying to divine the future, moreso than individual profiles.  You can have a potential ace in Low A who's the best pitching prospect in baseball, and that is more or less meaningless. However, if your team has two or three top of the rotation starters, plus several mid-range starters plus a few more bottom of the rotation types plus some outstanding bullpen arms, you can say with more certainty that your MLB team will have quality pitching five years down the road. It's the situation the two teams find their minor league systems in at this point, and it's why I'm very comfortable projecting that it's more likely we'll be able to be successful than they will be in the 2013-2015 seasons. Can Arizona change that outlook? Absolutely, there's lots of time. I'm just looking at what is, for what it is.

I bring this "quantity matters" part of the more extensive debate over there up again because the same principal applies to the top of a system's pitching as it does at the bottom. If your team has two or three potential aces, two or three potential mid-rotation arms and a few bottom guys you are far more likely to be successful than the teams that stop counting at five. Who cares if they and their money get stashed away in AAA, or, heaven forbid, you have to release one and swallow a million bucks at the end of Spring Training. Of course, only Boston and New York can probably afford to regularly build a team this way via free agency, so the rest of us have to kind of hope we don't get stuck with a stinker that we have to wait to trade off for relief help in early May (as the Rox did with Byung Hyun Kim last season) but even that scenario isn't as damaging as going into a season with just five guys and then have just one disaster like having your top prospect get shelled with a 12.01 ERA, your ace have his elbow blow up or having your mid-rotation guy decide to retire and join a monastery.

So, enter Josh Towers. From a depth perspective, there's absolutely nothing to not like about this move. It's not a lot of money, so he's not robbing from trying to extend Holliday or Tulo later, you're not going to get a better quality pitcher to sign for that price, and he's not going to steal time from Jimenez and Morales if they perform like they are capable. Sure, he might get shelled at Coors and it comes to naught, but if he doesn't, then score one for us, we've found a useful pitcher.

Right now, in terms of potential, our rotation plus looks like this:

Possible 1's: Jimenez, Morales - Don't think this means I'm counting on either reaching that height this year, this is just saying that potential's there.

Possible 2's: Francis, Cook

Possible 3's: Hirsh, Reynolds later in the season

Possible 4's: Wells, Towers

Possible 5's: Redman plus all of the above except for Cook and Francis, probably (these are pitchers, you know) as well as any number of other guys we have on the farm.

This is a decent group of nine to be going into the season with, particularly considering the budget we've used to bring them in.

-----

Speaking of bench depth, malakian mentioned yesterday that the Rockies had acquired outfielder Josh Burrus, former first round pick of the Braves, and a guy who was taken just a few slots ahead of Jayson Nix. Burrus' 2006 was bogged down by his recovery from rotator cuff surgery, who knows what bogged down his 2007, but he was never the prospect the Braves thought he'd be before that, so this seems like a minor league depth move more than anything.

Micah Bowie is also mentioned by BA as having signed a minor league contract, he pitched 57 plus innings with the Nationals last year, compiling a 3.25 ERA at RFK, but a 5.76 figure away from his home park. I've got a funny feeling that there isn't as much upside here, and if we see Bowie often in Coors Field next season, it probably means some really bad stuff has gone down.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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Nice posts...
braving the Snakepit.  I have to agree with your judgement of what the two orginizations plan is.  Perhaps the Rockies really were burned so much by the Hampton/Neagle signings that they just won't put all their eggs in on basket again.
"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Jan 5, 2008 2:14 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

err..
"two orginizations' plans are"
"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Jan 5, 2008 2:15 PM MST reply actions   0 recs

iTunes downloads
This is totally off topic, but I was so excited and had to share (although, maybe people already knew this and I'm just way late to the party). I just discovered that iTunes has select MLB games for download, including the Wild Card game (which is the 2nd most popular of the Games of the Year), the clincher against the Phillies, all four NLCS games, and all WS games. They actually have one other regular season game against the Astros, but it's really only because it's the one where Biggio gets career hit 3000.

I think I'm going to download all but the WS games (because I would never watch them again--too painful). Oh, and not the Astros game, either. Who cares.

by holly96 on Jan 6, 2008 2:32 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

quibbling
I agree with your overall sentiment and agree that when it comes to pitching, depth is everything. Witness: last year for the Rox.

However, with the walk rates that both have displayed in the minors, I don't think scouts would say that Jimenez or Morales project as #1 guys, in a true sense.

To be a true ace, you have to have 2 plus, plus pitches and another plus pitch. And you have to have great control of a pitch to have it graded as plus, plus. Jimenez started to look like that guy with his slider/fastball combo in 07, but he's never displayed that kind of command/control in his career.

All that said, give me a rotation of 4 #2's, which is what I feel we have, and I'm ready to go to war in the NL West.
Facing the AL might be a different story, but I guess that's getting ahead of ourselves a bit ...

by Thomas on Jan 6, 2008 9:05 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I'd roll with that too...
White Sox won the World Series with a rotation of 2's and lower, and they sure weren't the first.  Give me talented pitchers on the upswing and I'll take me chances...
President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jan 6, 2008 12:48 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Angles as well
White Sox did it and the Angels did it in 2002 as well. The key for both was to have a good lineup and a strong bullpen to compliment a rotation that was not excellent but was very consistent.

The key to next season for the Rockies will be getting a full, healthy season out of Cookie and good start to finish 33 start seasons from Ubaldo and Jason.

If all those guys manage to start 32+ and pitch an average of 200 innings, the Rox pen will be rested and nasty, and pitching like that should put us in or near the postseason again.

by Thomas on Jan 6, 2008 2:02 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough...
I think ace or number one pitcher is one of those terms that I should probably be much more careful throwing around as people with differing backgrounds  will have different definitions. From a scouting perspective, your's is the most accepted, but from your everyday layman fan's perspective it can go anywhere from any given team's best starter to a select handful of pitchers that more or less comprise the top Cy Young vote getters. Few think of it in term's of pitches. My personal definition is somebody that's regularly one of the top dozen pitchers in baseball, or in this case, pitchers who might become that. My expectations for Morales are actually going down, however, and maybe he should be more in the upper number two category, but Jimenez's pitches still wow me at times.

by Rox Girl on Jan 6, 2008 2:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

UBall
You're right on with Jimenez. He has 'ace' written all over that right shoulder. An easy delivery also means that valuable arm should hold up for years which top-of-the-rotation guys must be able to do.

Morales as a number 1 is a stretch.

I also can see Cookie droping down to our 4th best starter by mid season. When you think of the possibilities this team has, you certainly have to get excited.

by roxhead on Jan 6, 2008 5:39 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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