Tag: 2009 chone projections

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CHONE's TotalZone Projections

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So Rally/CHONE/Sean Smith, who earlier did defensive projections that went over so well here at Royals Review, has added defensive projections to his player pages. These are different than the earlier ones. The earlier sets (still available, I think) are based on a combination of STATS and BIS data. Those on the player pages are based of TotalZone, including those from the minors. I’m sure people will have plenty to complain about with these, too, (and there are some significant differences from UZR or plus/minus, as you’ll see), but it’s definitely worth checking out unless you think it’s going to bias your awesome scouting eye which can see things that these nerds can’t imagine. Here are some Royals stats in runs/150 games. OF= corner, CF = Center Alex Gordon +2 (3B) Billy Butler -3 at 1B, -21 in OF Kila -1 at 1B Shealy 0 (average) at 1B Ross Gload -5 at 1B Callaspo 0 (average) at 2B TPJ +1 Jose Guillen -2 in OF (hey, not bad. Now if he could only hit...) Mark Teahen -2 in OF, -15 3B DDJ +5 CF, +11 Corner OF CoCo Crisp, +6 CF Shane Costa, +4 OF MITCH +8 OF, +1 CF Willie Bloomquist -3 2B, -2 3B, -1 SS, +5 OF, -2 CF (the Spork, indeed. Good thing he’s a "doubles hitter.") Tug Huglett +1 2B, +3 3B, +4 OF, -4 CF (like Bloomquist, except witha better bat, defense. But he’s not a "winner.") Mike Jacobs -7 at 1B Mike Aviles -4 at SS, +3 2B, -2 3B (Let's not raise expectations too high, the minor league numbers apparently agreed with the scouts) Please insert all qualifications re: defensive stats: e.g., sample size, projections, minor league numbers, TotalZone, etc. Feel free to read more about TotalZone, too.

In AD 2009 W.A.R was beginning.

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Can a tired internet meme propel the Nats into the playoffs? Let's do the math--for great justice!

Rockies Blog Review: Previews, Perusals and Perturbances

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First up for this week's RBR is the excellent work Tom and Drew have been doing at Up in the Rockies previewing the team by position: Starting Pitching Relief Pitching Infielders Also this...

Behold, The Power of the Glove!

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Does Omar Vizquel's defense help him break the replacement level barrier?

Percent Chance of Select Royals Hitters Hitting a Certain Number of Homers given 650 PAs in 2009,...

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File

Percent Chance of Select Royals Hitters Hitting a Certain Number of Homers given 650 PAs in 2009, drawing on CHONE projections. If you need a closer look, click here. I already posted this at Royals Review, but given the recent fun with Excel's BINOMDIST function and the accompanying charts (not to mention how long it took it to get through my thick head), I thought I'd post it here. Those more in the know: is something like a binomial distribution roughly how stuff in projections systems like CHONE's percentiles and ZiPS' "Oddsinator" are generated?

Surveying The Starter Market

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The Mets could greatly improve their chances in '09 by following through on reported interest in a few Japanese free agents.

2009 CHONE projections have been released (sort of)!

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Rally/Chone has a new site for the 2009 CHONE projections. He only has the basic hitter pages complete for now, but when complete, will feature not just the basic projections, but "expanded" pages for multi-year projections, percentiles, etc. None of the pitchers are done yet, as far as I can tell, but this is great news. If you tell him I sent you, well... he probably doesn't know who the heck I am.

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