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Vegas Over/Unders vs. PECOTA vs. Chaos Theory

The Vegas Over/Unders are out. So are PECOTA's season predictions. Which would you bet on?

Tuesday Rockpile: PECOTA Not Bullish on 2013 Rox

The first aspects of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecasts came out yesterday. One would not expect them to be optimistic regarding the Rockies, but it may be worse than you thought.

PECOTA Beta Projections Available

PECOTA projections are only available to beta testers right now, but come check out the few we snuck away for your viewing.

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according...

Nl_east_2011_dave_allen

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according to various projection systems. The Mets projections range from 75 to 85 wins, with ~80 being the consensus. The graph is near identical to last year's, which turned out to be pretty spot on.

PECOTA Hates The Mets, Loves Johan Santana

Baseball Prospectus's forecasting system thinks the Mets are dreck, but has an irrational love affair with Johan.

The Mets Are Who The Computers Thought They Were

The Mets are living up to their mediocre expectations.

2007-2010 American League differentials in actual and preseason PECOTA projections for wins. (2010...

Pecotadifferentials2007

2007-2010 American League differentials in actual and preseason PECOTA projections for wins. (2010 adjusted for games played so far.)

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides this graph of projected wins for NL East teams per the...

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Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides this graph of projected wins for NL East teams per the various systems. 75-80 wins is the general consensus and all but one system projects 4th place. Trying hard to remain objective, 80-85 wins is my prediction.

First Look At 2010 PECOTA Depth Charts

First Look At 2010 PECOTA Depth Charts

Livan Strikes Out Pujols

Livan Hernandez's strikeout of Albert Pujols gives me hope in miracles.

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