Rox Girl
Mar 23, 2008 Aug 06, 2008 1856 8313
Hey there, it's me Rox Girl. After being raised by coyotes on the Western Slope, I grew fond of baseballs, howling, tasty sheep and small rodents. Luckily, I've lost the last habit and no longer eat prairie dogs, but I still love baseball and howling.
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Friday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: Off
Tulsa: L 1-5
Former Rockies farmhand Zach Parker shut down the Drillers yesterday. Brian Esposito had half of Tulsa's hits with his pair of singles and he scored the only Driller run. Andrew Johnston pitched two scoreless innings in relief, and the two strikeouts to zero walks helps to start reversing a negative ratio in that column. Of course, Johnston's calling card is his GB%, and that remains as high as ever.
Modesto: L 7-9
A's first base/DH prospect Chris Carter hit his 31st homerun of the season last night for the Ports (one of two HR's given up by Nuts starter Esmil Rogers in a poor outing) while our Modesto first base prospect, Michael Paulk, hit his fifth. Paulk also hit a pair of doubles and had a really solid game, so I don't mean to disparage him, it's just that the Rockies system has a glaring need for middle of the lineup run producers, and the contrast when our affiliates go up against teams that legitimately have that makes it kind of discouraging at times.
Fourth round draft pick Chris Dominguez has as good a chance as anybody to fit in that category. He leads the Cape Cod League this summer in homers and is known in Louisville for some mammoth blasts. With the draft signing deadline less than a week away, I really am wishing for some sort of miraculous turnaround on that front, but I wouldn't hold my breath, it seems that the Rockies will be missing out on Dominguez.
Asheville: W 5-1
I really wish more readers would have a chance to watch Robinson Fabian pitch. I got the opportunity to do so last night, and I really don't know if he's going to make it to the majors, but he's a fun pitcher to watch and it won't be for a lack of stuff. He has some sharp movement on a fastball that sits mostly in the 88-92 range according to the Lexington ballpark gun. His secondary offerings are erratic at best and he was somehat lucky that Lexington's a free swinging club. Don't be fooled by the lack of walks, he had fits of wildness as the three HBP's in the box should show. He also has quite a bit of effort to his delivery and seems to me an injury risk. It seems to me that he's eventually a reliever or JDLR type of pitcher that doesn't quite have a secure spot on an MLB roster despite flashing impressive stuff at times if he makes it to the show.
Lars Davis has looked a lot better the last couple of times I've seen him from earlier in the season at the plate. Bo Bowman looked pretty good in the first look I got of him, but I'll give a more complete scouting report of the batters after I see a couple more games this weekend. I'll be watching Shane Lindsay tonight, I'm hoping to see some more dominance from T's pitching.
Tri-City: L 0-2
Jonnathan Aristil has been one of our system's more unlucky pitchers when it comes to run support this season, and the loss he took in yesterday's shutout continued that trend. Aristil has the lowest ERA among DustDevils starters but just one win to show for it thus far. That said, it's not as if he's been the most dominating mound presence this summer, either. After a long absence from the system due to TJ surgery near the beginning of 2007, Zach McClellan started the live game throwing portion of his rehab and pitched a scoreless inning in the loss.
Casper: L 0-1
Speaking of unlucky, Jeff Fischer sort of wrote the book on that early in his professional career, and there was some carryover yesterday as he took the loss despite pitching brilliantly into the sixth inning. Fischer struck out nine and allowed just three hits and a walk. Offensively, the Ghosts just couldn't get anything going, however, as Delta Cleary was the only batter with two hits.
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Game #117: Jimenez vs Perez
Barring a big comeback in the last two innings of game one this afternoon, it looks like we'll need some better mojo for game number two. So let this GameThread be the bearer of better mojo and let's take down this pesky Nationals team, please.
Go Rockies!
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Game #116: Francis vs Bergmann
I'm not exactly sure why the Nationals feel better off with a Francis/Bergmann, Perez/Jimenez card today than the way things were originally scheduled, but that's the way it appears. At any rate, the Rockies need to start showing they're up to a chase in earnest, and a home doubleheader sweep would be a strong play in that regard.
Go Rockies!
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Thursday Morning Rockpile:
Don't trouble yourselves on our account, San Diego, if Jake Peavy wants to pitch against Johan Santana, I say by all means go ahead and let him.
I think the magic words that sell me on Livan Hernandez are in this paragraph:
De La Rosa would give the Rockies a left-hander in the bullpen other than closer Brian Fuentes - as well as a reliever capable of working multiple innings - which would seem to make veteran Kip Wells, who is on a $3.1 million contract, expendable when Hernandez is added to the roster.
Tracy Ringolsby's article indicates that the Rockies are willing to sink more costs into the bottom of the rotation by clearing out Wells in favor of Hernandez. While I certainly would not mind getting as fat a paycheck as these guys are getting, being able to write off the loss and eat these contracts shows the kind of financial flexibility the Rockies will need to stay competitive over coming seasons. There are going to be bad decisions made at times when building the team, that's a given anywhere. It's key to keep commitments small so that backing out of those bad decisions always remains an option. Think of the headache Los Angeles now has with Andruw Jones, for instance. The problem I have is that the Rockies seem too stubborn to admit sometimes when they've made their mistakes, even if the ones they've made of late have been relatively small compared early this decade.
Two games this afternoon, it should be a fun time, particularly if it turns out as well as the last three Coors Field double dips. Counting the day/night kick-off of last September's miracle run against the Dodgers, the Rockies have swept both games of the last three double headers at home.
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Thursday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: L 4-6
Ryan Shealy did to the Sky Sox what he used to do for them, hitting a two run homer off Josh Hall as part of a four run second inning that in effect put this game out of reach early. Sean Barker had a pair of doubles in the loss.
Tulsa: L 3-10
Keith Weiser's debut for the Drillers didn't go quite the way he intended, and while he was left in long enough to see some success with a scoreless sixth and seventh, the six runs he gave up in the first five innings show the distance he has to bridge to make a successful jump to AA. Speaking of jumps, in a small detail, you might notice that Dexter Fowler missed last night's game, and his name no longer appears on Tulsa's roster.
Modesto: W 6-2
The Nuts offense woke up just in time for Jhoulys Chacin to record another win, scoring three after he had already finished his work for the night -and left trailing 1-00 in the top of the sixth. Chacin's outing wasn't particularly dominant by his standards, but it was effective nonetheless, allowing no extra base hits and just one run from seven baserunners in all. Daniel Mayora's two run homer keyed the sixth inning rally, and the Michaels Paulk and McKenry each had a pair of hits.
Asheville: Off
In my most recent farm report for the Rocky, I tried to look for some prospects that aren't getting any notice this season. In my research, the Tourists actually came out looking relatively dismal right now in terms of future MLB players when you go by the statistics. You have one bat in Darin Holcomb that seems likely to make it, one pitcher in Connor Graham (two if you count Shane Lindsay) and then several players who grade out as merely organizational filler with a few that might, if they're lucky, crack the bigs as fringe replacements for a cup of coffee. Now before everybody jumps on me, this isn't necessarily what I believe of these papers, it's just the cold objectivity of the statistical record at the moment. Of the position players, the three besides Holcomb that are closest to being on an MLB trajectory are Jeff Cunningham, Kevin Clark and David Christensen. As corner pleyers, they're going to need to step up their play a couple of degrees to start getting real notice, but it won't hurt to keep an eye on how these three finish out the year.
Tri-City: L 3-6
There isn't much difference from the five innings Parker Frazier threw and the five innings of Chacin's stint other than that Frazier was unfortunate to clump all of his bad stuff into one inning rather than spreading it out. Four runs scored in the third, but in the other four innings, Parker had a one hit shutout and looked very good. Thomas Field remains a clutch RBI machine, driving in all three Dust Devil runs while Scott Robinson scored a pair of them.
Casper: Off
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Sunday Morning Rockpile:
With Tulo starting to hit, Iannetta starting, our lineup is currently fine for the National League, our bullpen currently fine for the NL. The one glaring and obvious team weakness lies in three fifths of the starting rotation. By breaking down what it's taken teams to get quality starting help this July, namely the deals the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies have made, you can see that the decision of O'Dowd's to not get a starter boils down to large long term bets on two specific players, Ian Stewart and Dexter Fowler.
Stewart, in particular, seems to have been the key figure in keeping the Rockies from buying in 2008. For this point, it's helpful to go back to the offseason and look also at the Matt Garza/Delmon Young and Edinson Volquez/Josh Hamilton trades where it becomes clear that the best way to get a quality young cost controlled starter is to offer a quality young cost controlled power bat in return. It's become clear that nobody was offering starters of the caliber that O'Dowd's looking for (and should be looking for) in exchange for a reliever, no matter how good they are.
So unless O'Dowd plans on hunting up a similar trade to the Minnesota/Tampa Bay or Cincinnati/Texas deals by using Stewart this winter, it seems that the team is putting him into 2009's lineup in pencil already. Fowler might be in that category as well. In this case the wager made on Thursday was that a starting eight that included Dex and Stew in 2009 trumps the starting five getting rid of them would have brought. Looking at the numbers bears this out. Stewart this season, with a 138 OPS+ (compared to 105) and superior defense is already outperforming Atkins at third base. He'd be a downgrade offensively from Matt Holliday in left field, but not by much if he improves at the palte next season. Fowler, for his part, should be a better option than Taveras or Podsednik or Spilly by next April if he isn't already, but certainly by mid-summer at the latest.
So what we're left with is that the lot is basically cast here that the rotation problem and the extra parts we have are two distinct issues that are going to have to be solved separately if we want to put the best possible team on the field. Unless you're wearing a Pirates cap, you don't want us to give up Franklin Morales for Ian Snell when we all know that Morales could and should be better than Snell over the long haul. Nobody should want to give up Stewart for Duchsherer or Fowler for Washburn when Stewart and Fowler should be playing everyday in 2009 versus the once ever five day contribution those two starting pitchers will bring and the mediocrity that they'd bring at that.
So what O'Dowd ends up doing is kicking around the tires on guys like Livan Hernandez, somebody who's obviously not ideal, clearly only a National League bottom of the rotation starter at best (for more of that discussion check out Pioneer Skies diary on the right) but who might nonetheless be better than options we are currently using.
With fifteen strikeouts racked up in their loss yesterday, the Rockies continue a disturbing trend on offense. For the week they have 62 K's in 275 PA's as a team (22.5%,) compared to a season average of 18.6% and a NL average of 17.9%. Strikeouts by themselves aren't necessarily a bad thing, so long as there is a corresponding increase in other offensive categories, in fact, they could indicate either more patience or power and you should see a higher OBP or SLG, but we aren't exactly seeing that. What's actually happening is that the Rockies are striking out more, but also getting a little luckier with their balls hit into play so their overall offensive stats are basically the same. The problem is that once the luck with BABIP fades, the increasing lack of contact will take the team's offensive numbers down quickly.
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Sunday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: W 9-5
Two homeruns and four RBI by Joe Koshansky and a quality start by Jason Hirsh were the keys to this win.
Tulsa: L 3-5
All three of the Drillers runs were scored by solo homerun off Jess Todd, so the game may have had abetter result had they been able to get a few more runners on base. Chaz Roe's start was marred by a terrible fourth inning that saw him give up two doubles, two singles, and HBP and three runs, but otherwise he was pretty sound.
Modesto: L 3-9
Esmil Rogers lasted just four innings, giving up three of San Jose's runs, but the game sort of fell apart when he left as James Burok gave up four more runs and an anemic Nuts offense couldn't keep close. Michael McKenry and Jay Cox both doubled, but they were the only Nuts to record hits.
Asheville: L 7-12
Shane Lindsay made a rehab appearance, getting through two and two thirds innings with one run allowed and two hits and two walks. Sheng An Kuo came on in relief of Lindsay and got blistered for nine runs an inning and two thirds, including four on a fourth inning grand slam. Bo Bowman hit his first Asheville homer, and Brian Lapin homered in his second straight game.
Tri-City: W 7-4
Andy Goff had a .493 OPS at Casper, so you had to wonder why management chose to move him to Tri-City, where hitting will typically be more difficult, but his debut yesterday had to put some of those questions to rest. Goff doubled and homered in four at bats, while Chad Lembeck also knocked one out of the yard at Boise (okay, so they were at the one NWL stadium that would be more suited to the Pioneer League,) Jordan Pacheco drove in four, and Jonnathan Aristil had a quality start in the victory.
Casper: L 9-11
After combining for three runs on Friday, the same two teams broke out the bats for twenty on the day after. Chad Jacobsen had three hits, while six other Ghosts had two apiece and everybody in the lineup had at least one. The only Ghost who failed to reach base at least twice was Shane Lowe, who did get a single in five at bats. Maikol Gonzalez and Wilin Rosario tripled, while Gonzalez, Jacobsen, Tyler Massey and Mike Zuanich all doubled. Marco Duarte and Edwar Cabrera faltered on the mound, however, allowing all eleven runs in their combined six innings.
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Game #112: De Los Santos vs Nolasco
Nolasco seems to me to be somewhat of a home field/team creation this year, a pitcher that might not be as good as he looks if he played in one of the NL's less flyball pitcher friendly stadiums. Not that it matters, we're playing this game at Dolphin Stadium, and Valerio De Los Santos is our starter, so it's not like we're going to be able to find any advantage in that.
Go Rockies.
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Saturday Pebble Report:
Okay, first of all, as for Thursday's games, I've got to mention Jeff Francis' strong rehab outing wherein he led Tuls to a shutout. Other than that, you had another bad outing by Christian Friedrich and Eric Wetzel's four hit game at Tri-City, but nothing else that was particularly noteworthy other than Modesto using two wins the last two days to erase gains made by Stockton and San Jose in the five game stretch prior to that and maintain control of a potential playoff spot.
As for yesterday,:
Colorado Springs: L 3-4
Christian Colonel hit a two run homer in the eighth to close the gap, but there just wasn't enough offense to support an okay outing by Josh Hall
Tulsa: L 7-8
Chris Nelson returned to Tulsa with a double, and three players who had seen their averages dip below .300 this summer (Jeff Kindel, Corey Wimberly and Eric Young Jr) inched closer back to that mark with multi-hit games. Other than Ryan Mattheus, the pitching wasn't really there for the Drillers, but a high score and nine extra base hits for the two teams combined says that maybe they can take some solace in that park conditions probably weren't helping them any.
Modesto: W 4-3
Chacin the machine used his five innings well, striking out five. He had his usual phenomenal 11/3 GB/FB rate on contact. One of those three FB's was a homer and another a double, but other than those two mistakes it was another great showing. Van Kooten, Mayora, Paulk, Ferrante and Haley all had two hit games in the win.
Ashevile: W 4-2, W 4-2
Not quite deja vu other than the score in this double header sweep. In the first game, Mr. Everything Joey Williamson got the win after starting for the second time this season pitching five innings and allowing just one run on four hits. I don't know if I can remember the Rockies ever having a minor league swing man as effective as he's been for Asheville this season. Wins and losses are obviously flawed statistics, but it's interesting to note that Williamson remains undefeated as a professional as he's compiled a 9-0 record between Tri-City and Asheville. I really hope he continues this success as he progresses through the system. Game two saw Robinson Fabian pick up the win thanks largely to a rare Brian Lapin homerun (2 on the season) that happened to come with a pair of Tourists on base.
Tri-City: L 3-5
Charlie Blackmon had three hits Thursday and three more last night to take over the the Northwest League's lead in that department with 58 in just 40 games. Without significant power showing up, however, it's still hard to place him as a prospect. He's only walked eight times, and while his strikeout rate isn't high, it's not particularly low for a guy who's making his living off of slapping out mostly singles and a few doubles right now. As always, there's still a lot that can change (and as always, I fully expect people to read this and think I'm being too harsh or whatever) but right now, there's just not enough to get excited about here. Consider the Padres' Luis Durango, who led the Northwest League in hits last season. What makes Blackmon any better?
Casper: W 2-1
Jeff Fischer and Isaiah Froneberger combined to shut down Ogden, which is good because their offense was almost equally silenced. All three runs by both teams were scored in the fifth inning. Tyler Massey doubled and scored one of Casper's two, Zack Murry then got plunked and scored the other as one of only two Ghosts (Alex Feinberg was the other) to reach base safely more than once. Shane Lowe doubled in Massey, a groundout by Feinberg scored Murry.
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