Since Aaron Cook became a permanent fixture in the starting rotation in 2004, he's had an ERA+ of 118, which is a borderline #1, solid #2. Last season, he went 9-15, but he had seven would be wins given up by the Rockies bullpen. He was healthy for an entire season and he gave us over 212 innings, but he struggled from about the middle of July on. In seven of his last thirteen starts he gave up four or more runs, becoming decidedly mediocre right when the team needed someone to step up.
I'm just curious what people expect from Aaron next season. Will he be the next Rockie to have a sub 4.00 ERA? What sort of record do you think he'll put up? Can we expect the same fade down the stretch, or will he remain strong from the gate to the finish line?
Aaron Cooks up some tasty dishes
Computer based statistic models seem to suggest an ever so slight drop-back, but they haven't quite grasped how the humidor affects things yet. Plus, most I've seen seem to think he'll only be good for 25 starts or so, believing his lack of playing time while going through his recovery from blood clots is a sign of future injury. His past troubles are a different beast entirely from other pitcher injuries, so I'm skeptical of these. What are your thoughts?