As an adoring Colorado Rockies fan -a Colorado Rockies fan devoted enough to write a fan blog so other Rockies fans can know how devoted I am- I am sometimes put in a position wherein I have to do some pretty sketchy things. Like today, I have to come up with some sort of convincing argument as to why Fogg and the Rockies will win this game when all logic suggests it's probably not going to happen.
Alright, so there's the key, then. Since logic is bound to fail me here, I have to invoke the gods of illogical outcomes and point out that even though baseball will have its obvious winners, the 1998 Yankees, it will also have the occasional underdog rise out of the woodwork to win as well (say the 1987 Twins or the Marlins of three years ago). Okay, that's all well and good, you say, but that won't help Josh Fogg get past Albert Pujols (career OPS of 1.300 off him) or Jim Edmonds (1.466) or Scott Rolen (1.056). So there will be a bit of luck involved: if Fogg can somehow manage to keep the heart of the Cards' lineup mostly in check, he does pretty well against everybody else and we should be able to keep close enough for our bullpen to come in and do its work late.
What about our scoring chances against Chris Carpenter, though? Well, there's not a lot of history there, but we know from Carp's line that he's the rare right hander who does as well or better against left handed batters as he does versus right, so don't expect Helton and Hawpe to break out big. The good thing though, is that Chris can get rattled a bit when batters work the pitch count and have deep at bats. As his last game against Houston showed, he'll eventually wear down if hitters aren't too aggressive.
For the third time this season, we can put together a five game winning streak with a victory, twice we've missed that chance. I say change is good. Go Rockies!