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Colorado Rockies First Round Pick: Greg Reynolds

Reynolds was more highly thought of out of high school three years ago than he is now coming out of Stanford. Most scouts see the big (6'7" 235 lbs.) right hander with a mid rotation ceiling, although he is certainly one of the most polished pitchers available in the draft and should reach the Rockies fairly soon. According to several souces, Reynolds has agreed in principal to adeal worth $3.25 million. He works with four pitches -two fastballs, a curve and a change-up- although the latter two will need some polish before they are effective at the MLB level. That said, the curve should work out to be a pretty nice pitch for him. Reynolds pitches from a downward angle which is always a plus, and has been very good at keeping the ball in the park.

What he hasn't done, is live up to his stuff's potential in the three years he's been pitching at Palo Alto. In fact, in a recent draft chat, BA's Jim Callis had this to say:

Q: Ryan from Brisbane, CA asks: Okay, you and everyone else has gone on the record saying Stanford's Greg Reynolds has "bust" written all over him (although he's rated #5 on your list). Do the pro team's feel the same way and is there any chance he could experience a slide on draft day? If not, where do you see him going?

A: Jim Callis: I never said "bust" when I discussed him in Ask BA a couple of weeks ago. I just said it bothered me that he has size, stuff and control and doesn't consistently dominate college hitters, which made me see him as more of a mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy than a frontline starter. Reynolds was moving up a lot of draft boards before he got hit hard by UCLA last weekend. He'll still go in the first half of the first round unless he continues to get rocked.

Here's a link to find the more extended answer Callis gave which he refers to in the question.

It's easy to look at his physical ability and envision a frontline starter, but I think he's going to be more of a No. 3 or a No. 4. adds this:

Given his stature, he pitches on a downward plane that gives him a natural advantage over hitters, however he pitches more to contact than he misses bats, which concerns some scouts given his powerful repertoire.

So the consensus is that Reynolds has the stuff to be a "frontline starter" and the polish to reach the majors quickly. The scouts in question have viewed his lack of dominance as a sign that he won't reach that frontline potential, but the Rockies must at least feel there's a possibility there for it to happen to draft him this high. None of the people who have expressed displeasure have eliminated top two starterdom from his potential, meaning it's still there, although most of these pundits view it as somehow unreachable.

For that reason, this is an interesting selection to me, a mostly safe pick with a slim to mediocre chance of a very big upside.