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Monday Morning Rockpile: This is where it gets good...

from FanGraphs

Garrett Atkins' performance at the plate combined with his crucial error in the field nearly cost us the game yesterday. It's my opinion that his underperformance in April has been one of the biggest reasons for our mounting losses. I also believe, however, that this is just a temporary downswing for Garrett.

This stat table shows that the Rockies have a freakishly high groundball rate as a team so far this season, part of the reason our AB/HR rate is also quite high. Again, these rates seem unsustainable in a good way for the Rox.

My gist is that the comeback starts in May, and should continue through the month of June. The five game deficit we have in the division should be erased in that span unless one of the teams ahead of us has an unexpected run. Over the next thirty-five games (up to the Baltimore/Boston road swing) the Rox should go at least 20-15, but I'm expecting up to five wins better than that. The most difficult series in this stretch will be the two trips to AT&T, so doing well over these next three nights will be a huge step forward and I see this series with the Giants as a potential pivot point in our season. At this point in the season, picking up a couple of road series wins will be a vital marking post of how good this team will be.