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Evaluating the 1st Round on Short Videos & Some Stats

Carlos Gomez over at The Hardball Times attempts to evaluate first round draft picks almost exclusively on their scouting videos from Draft Tracker and Minor League Baseball. The first part is up already. He's really impressed with Price and he likes Moustakas after seeing his game swings. After he comes down harsh on Moskos, he has this to say:

With plenty of better talent available, I don't get this pick here. I want upside at No. 4 I guess. Rush him and rush him quickly because a guy like this probably doesn't have as many bullets left as someone with better mechanics.

It's almost as if he's telling the Pirates to throw Moskos out there until he gets injured. With the Pirates history of first round pitchers, there's a pretty good chance of that happening. Still, it's just one video that's three or four minutes long.

That brings us to his final evaluation of Matt Wieters: "I'm not as sure about his swing as much as I was last year, but because so much of the analysis is based on this year's video, I'd have to say that this is a bit of an overdraft here." Gomez has his own answer to why he wouldn't cut it as a scout if he went about using only one year, or one game in this case, in evaluating a player. That isn't to say this isn't an interesting exercise, but it does give a false impression of a player.

As for Weathers: "Excellent tempo, aggressive lower body, excellent front side mechanics. Reminds me of Troy Percival with his lower body action and leg lift." We have a fan here. He does have concerns over future shoulder problems, but other than that I think Weathers would rank fourth or fifth in best pick out of the first 10.


Zone Ratings were released today and David Gaskko checks in to see the leaders and the losers after the first two months or so of the season. Tulo's the only Rockies to make the list and that is as the third best defensive shortstop. He's saved 11 runs on the field. But, of course, we already knew how good Tulo was on the field before this.

With the Excel file at the bottom of the second link, you can find out that Atkins and Hawpe have cost the team five runs each so far and that the now gone Old Man was six runs below average while playing center. Holliday is at minus four for now. Matsui has the second best Zone Rating on the team with a four.

I don't know how many of you have heard of Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB), but J.P. McIntyre looks at the best and worst after the first two months of the season. The Rockies only appear once, and by now you've guessed where that is: third base. At least Atkins isn't the lowest ranked guy.