clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Consensus Projecting: Matt Holliday

New, 25 comments

You know, several blogs do a Community Projection sort of thing, and even though I have a lot of respect for most of the bloggers who do this, I always thought that the concept was kind of dumb and certainly flawed. We're emotionally invested in these people, so biases will always enter into our projections unless we take them straight from a Season Preview book (may I humbly suggest you purchase this one and tell them how great their Rockies section is) or other spreadsheet and really, why wouldn't we just look at the original spreadsheet for that? And then people put down a row of numbers and then other people put down rows of numbers and then the blogger compiles and averages out those numbers and whammo! you've got another row of numbers that looks a lot like all the other rows of numbers.

Yeah, that's about as fun as a barrel of pickles -not the barrel of monkeys that we are all aspiring to.

So I'm proposing a different, more caucus like approach. Everybody only gets one category that they can start a discussion in. If it's a number, like say 12 stolen bases, or two career Super Bowl rings, then fine, put it down and then everybody else can then agree or disagree whether it's a good projection or not, and by this way we'll work to a consensus on that projection. Here's an example of how I envision this working:

Rox Girl 10:03am EDT: Matt Holliday will negotiate three historic peace treaties in 2008.

Russ 10:05am EDT: I think Matt will negotiate four historic peace treaties in 2008.
LarryB303 10:06am EDT: I agree with Russ, I think it's a lot closer to four than three.

And then we establish that Matt will indeed broker four historic peace treaties in 2008. Once we've gotten a consensus on everybody's first categories, then we'll allow people to go back for seconds. Does everybody understand? I think in this way we'll end up with a row of numbers that will be a little less boring, and a little more fun getting there. Let's go:

Update [2008-2-15 13:57:14 by Rox Girl]:

So far we've projected for Matt to save six kittens, break 97 bats, have zero extra inning, game winning, phantom touches of home plate, hit 30 concourse HR's, be nominated for the vice-presidency, be upstaged by Jackson three times in interviews, and be labeled as hot by jcd823's wife between fourteen and seventeen times.

I think it's shaping up to be a pretty decent projection.