So Sky Kalkman at BTB has asked baseball bloggers to help him out in filling out a massive database grid with win projections for all thirty teams (to see what I have for the Rockies, open the grid and click on the COL tab). The basis for this idea is that fan communities for teams, while biased, may also have a better grasp on their team's depth charts and player health situations and may be better able to model playing time.
To start the discussion, I entered each Rockies CHONE projection, and then played around with the plate appearances and IP until I came up with a semi-satisfactory model. You'll note with the win estimator to the right registering 85 wins that CHONE is about as bullish on the Rockies with the way I dispersed the PT for 2009 as those other projections that I linked to over the weekend.
So to start this discussion, let's look at a few things:
- I'm operating under the assumption that Garrett Atkins will be traded mid-season with just 390 PA's. Is this a correct assumption? I'm just looking at it, and if Helton's healthy and Stewart's as good as projected, Garrett certainly would seem expendable.
- To come out to 85 wins after a 74 win season in 2008 there have to be a lot of happy rebounds built in, not all of them may come true. Do you think the expected comebacks by Helton, Tulo, Atkins and Francis are for real, or should we temper our expetations a bit and lower those projections?
- I didn't input baserunning at all yet, as the Rockies lost their two best runners this offseason. Who, if anybody, can we expect to provide value on the basepaths, and who will be a liability?
- Speaking of baserunning, Eric Young Jr. seems as likely as anybody to get a September call-up and see some PA's, where should we slot him in, and how many at bats should we give him?
- For the defensive values I put in, I mostly just guessed. Brad Hawpe was about 4 wins worth on the bad side of the defensive spectrum last season, which is about as bad as he could get. I have him rebounding all the way to just a two win liability, is this too much to expect? The rest I tried to conservatively keep within one win from zero either way (Atkins would have been worse with a full season at third) but if I'm off base let me know.
- One player that just doesn't seem to project well at all is Aaron Cook, is a 4.70 ERA really what we should expect from him given his FIP last season was nearly a full run lower than that at 3.80?
- In general, CHONE is pessimistic about our starters abilities to pitch a lot of innings. I kept the projections mostly the same for everybody except JDLR who I bumped to 145 from 108, and Greg Smith who I dropped to 128 from 143, is this too optimistic or too pessimistic?
- Manny Corpas may only be our fourth best reliever according CHONE, is that too conservative, or do you believe the hype about him getting back to an over the top delivery?
- At the other end, I really don't know if Glendon Rusch or Jason Grilli's projections are park adjusted, they seem a little too good to be true.
Okay, these are just some ideas to get us started with this discussion. I'm curious what everybody thinks will happen with the Rockies come 2009. As we get some community consensus, I'll modify the WAR spreadsheet accordingly.