On the current homestand, the Rockies have outscored the opposition 32 to 23, but are only 2-2. The takeaway from this from a probability standpoint is that one of the two first games against the Dodgers "should" have gone the Rockies way, but instead was grabbed by Los Angeles, and that the performance record of the team suggests the Rockies should be 3-1 over these last four games. The theory goes that one run games are essentially coin flips, particularly when they involve as many runs as most of the Rockies one run games this season have.
It's not so much a question of superior hitting or pitching when one team beats another 9-8 or 6--5, as it is one team got the breaks, the coin to flip to their side that day while the other did not.
The sole reason that the Rockies are two games behind their production level is that 0-4 record in one run games. The opening day defeat to the Diamondbacks, and then three losses to the Dodgers, if the Rockies split those games, they are 9-9, right at .500 right now. That's reason number one why these four games have me more optimistic on the season than I was after our last road trip. Throughout the course of the year, not every flip will go the way of the opposition, the Rockies will make some headway in this category.
Reason number two has to do with how the team has won the last two nights. In 2005, the Rockies were 25-34 in games decided by five runs or more. In 2006, the turnaround to a 25-20 record in these contests was a large part of the reason I thought the team was better than the 76-86 record it put up. 2007's 29-18 record on that front confirmed and continued that trend but 2008 saw the team reverse course once more at 27-31.
If you don't think fourth or fifth starters are important, look at those numbers. In 2005 and 2008, the Rockies would essentially concede a blowout right around once every five games. In 2006 and 2007, the team's ability to cut down on these blowouts helped push them to much better overall performance. One ninth of the way through the 2009 season, the Rockies have a 4-1 record in games decided by five runs or more, that projects to an overall record of 36-9. The Dodgers are at 4-2, the Diamondbacks and Giants at 2-3, and these Padres we're playing are at 1-5.
Once again, I think the Rockies are a lot better than people are realizing this season, and the last couple of games it's finally starting to show up in the results.
04/28/09 6:40 PM MDT
|San Diego Padres||Colorado Rockies|
|Scott Hairston - CF||Dexter Fowler - CF|
|David Eckstein - 2B||Ryan Spilborghs - RF|
|Brian Giles - RF||Todd Helton - 1B|
|Adrian Gonzalez - 1B||Garrett Atkins - 3B|
|Chase Headley - LF||Ian Stewart - 2B|
|Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B||Seth Smith - LF|
|Nick Hundley - C||Clint Barmes - SS|
|Chris Burke - SS||Yorvit Torrealba - C|
|Chad Gaudin - P||Jorge De La Rosa - P|