NL West Report: The Tale of the Snake, the Angel and the Haren

Last week, I wrote that I had significant doubts that Dan Haren would be dealt.  Jerry DiPoto made me look like a complete ignorant fool by dealing Haren to Los Angeles (of Anaheim) yesterday.  Of course, it wasn't really my fault.  After all, he was reportedly demanding two starting pitchers and bullpen help for Haren last week, which is not the offer he accepted.  Team president said he needed an" A+ offer" to trade Haren....just three days before the deal went down.

I am no expert on the Angels' farm system, but I can tell you the Diamondbacks got nowhere near an A+ deal nor the two starting pitchers and bullpen help.

Instead, Arizona will be receiving Joe Saunders, the 29-year-old southpaw starter who has about three years of service time, and is thus still in his arbitration years.  I asked David OhNo for comps to Rockies players, and his choice for Saunders was Jason Hammel due to contract status and age.   Despite being a lefty, Saunders has to be considered the inferior pitcher, WINZ be damned.  You're looking at possibly $7/million a year for Saunders in arbitration, leading some to contend the D-Backs might non-tender Saunders after the season.  

Additionally, Patrick Corban comes in the deal, who was ranked as the Angels #22 prospect before the season by Halos Heaven.  He has been in A-ball this season and profiles as a mid-back-of-the-rotation starter, though he is a long ways away.  David's comp to Rockies prospects:  Chris Balcom-Miller, though Rockies fans have CBM rated quite a bit higher than Angels fans do of Corban.

Rafael Rodriguez fills in as the "bullpen help."  The 25-year-old has been mostly a AAA reliever the last two plus years, deservedly so:  he has a 5.51 ERA in his MLB career, but considering Arizona has a 6.53 bullpen ERA, it's hard to argue with the logic that he'll be an upgrade somewhere.  David's comp:  Edgmer Escalona.

The wild card in the entire trade is the PTBNL.  Rumors abound that it will be Tyler Skaggs, a 19-year old starter in A-ball who was chosen 40th overall in the 2009 draft.  He is ranked as the Angels' ninth overall prospect and received a lot of interest from Arizona scouts leading up to the draft, though they ultimately passed on him in favor of high school 3B Matt Davidson.    If Skaggs is included, he could very well be the most valuable piece in this trade.  David's comp:  There really isn't a good one, but the closest would be Tyler Matzek, though the difference in ceiling between the two is considerable.  The comp is age/experience related.

The haul is significantly less than what Josh Byrnes gave up to get Haren.  I never fail to shudder at the list:  Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith and Chris Carter (Oakland's #1 prospect).  But that's not the way to evaluate the trade, as it leaves out two considerable variables.  First, the Diamondbacks got 15.1 WAR (and $67.0million in Value) per fangraphs from Haren in his Arizona career, which is possibly enough to offset the difference in the deal.

Initial reactions from analysts heavily favor the Angels in the deal.   Fangraphs' Matthew Carruth hates the trade from Arizona's perspective, and the D-Backs fans at AZSnakePit voiced their displeasure in the poll, if not the comments in totality.  

The trade reminds JC Bradbury of the recent Javier Vazquez deal, while Buster Olney is reminded of the Jake Peavy deal in terms of payroll flexibility.  And there is the kicker, the second big variable.  

The Diamondbacks are mired in last place and are 107-155 since Opening Day 2009.  A highly paid ace is a luxury for a competitive team, but the roughly $30million remaining on his deal severely hampers the new regime from upgrading the roster elsewhere.  Nick Piecoro speculates that the extra money could be used on a closer, such as Kerry Wood or Rafael Soriano, next season.  I understand bullpen help is important to that atrocious pen, but I would be a bit peeved as a D-Backs fan if I turned an ace into an overpaid closer.  Click this link to listen to GM Jerry DiPoto and Dan Haren discuss the trade.

So would you trade Matzek, Balcom-Miller, Escalona and Hammel for Haren, provided CBM and Hammel took a big step back and Matzek took two?  Provided the Rockies would be on the hook for $30million to a pitcher that has given up more home runs than any non-D-Back in baseball?  It's worth considering.

I'll leave you with this, via Keith Law:

I've talked to a few sources in other front offices not involved in the deal, and the unanimous response is that this is a great deal for the Angels and a bad one for Arizona.

And this, from Bob Nightengale:

Informal poll of BB scouts and say that Dbacks made out quite well in Haren trade, esp with top prospect being the PTBNL

I guess we will just have to find out.

 

Team capsules after the jump.

NL West Report

Arizona (37-62, 5th, L4, 22 GB)

Last Week: 3-4.  3-0 vs. Mets.  0-4 vs. Giants.  Thanks a lot Arizona for helping us out.  That helped about as much as trading Haren to San Francisco.

Divisional Change: Lost 1.5 games to first-place San Diego.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Phillies.  3 game road series @ Mets.  Dan Haren was supposed to pitch twice this week.  Instead, Rodrigo Lopez will slide up and pitch twice.

You Should Know:  Joe Saunders' Arizona debut will come Thursday in Philadelphia, opposed by Kyle Kendrick.

News:  Even before the Haren trade, almost all of the Diamondbacks-related news was about Dan Haren.  In the absence of that, there's not much to report in this section.  The Nationals were interested in Edwin Jackson, but now that Haren has been dealt, Jackson will almost certainly be starting in Arizona.

In an underwhelming bullpen market, Jerry Crasnick lists Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman as the fifth best trade targets for bullpens.

The Angels are also interested in Adam LaRoche.

Kelly Johnson hit for the cycle on Friday.  The second baseman could also be dealt.

Jon Heyman thinks Kirk Gibson will stick as Arizona's manager long(ish) term.  

Transactions:  None.

Injuries:  Brandon Webb threw a successful bullpen session July 21, yet there is still no timetable for his return.  Kris Benson threw a simulated game last Tuesday.  Leo Rosales still needs another week or two to strengthen his legs before returning.

Los Angeles (53-46, 3rd, W2, 6.0 GB, 3.0 GB WC)

Last Week: 4-3.  1-2 vs. Giants.  3-1 vs. Mets.  

Divisional Change:  Lost 0.5 games to first place San Diego, rebounded to third place in the NL West.  Fell to 3.0 games behind in the wild card chase. 

This Week:  3 game road series @ Padres.  3 game road series @ Giants.  Desp.ite the fact that the Rockies now trail Los Angeles, we might want to root for the Dodgers to be on fire on the road this week.  Their tough schedule down the stretch might be enough to keep them at bay eventually.  Chad Billingsley is scheduled to go twice this week.

You Should Know:  ESPN's Sunday night game is Giants/Dodgers, with Billingsley facing Matt Cain.

News:  The Dodgers have been linked to Roy Oswalt for  long time, but I have not given a Houston-Los Angeles trade any more weight than one with the Rockies.  With the 24th-best farm system according to Baseball America, they don't have the greatest farm system to deal with, and Ned Colletti has watched Carlos Santana and Josh Bell take big steps forward while Casey Blake and George Sherrill have taken big steps back.  Natually, money is an issue with the impending divorce.  

Ken Rosenthal suggests that Houston and Los Angeles don't match up. But as the trade deadline nears, Ned Colletti is doing as much as he can to keep the pipe dream alive for his fans.  In an LA Time article Saturday, Colletti noted he is "more open-minded" to trade prospects than before.  Additionally, Colletti claims to have the go-ahead from Frank McCourt to add salary.  However, the Dodgers probably only have $2-3million to play with, which obviously won't get an Oswalt deal done.  I would say there's no way this happens, but if I'm wrong for the second week in a row, it would kill the Rockies' playoff chances almost as much as this road trip.

Pitching is the priority for Los Angeles, and Ned Colletti believes they will be able to add both a starter and reliever.

Ted Lilly is one optionto join the rotation, while they are also looking at Pirate Paul Maholm.

Before Josh Byrnes was fired, the Dodgers were actively talking with Arizona for Dan Haren.   Now that would have been interesting.

Peter Gammons suggested the Red Sox might target Russell Martin, now that the Rockies have balked at trading Chris Iannetta.

Brad Ausmus has completed his recovery and return from his first career disabled list.  With that added to his career checklist, Ausmus has indicated he will retire after the season.

Transactions:  88704&notebook_id=11888708&vkey=notebook_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la" style="color: #c8181d !important; text-decoration: none !important; background-color: transparent;"> Optioned C AJ Ellis and RHP John Link, called up LHP Jack Taschner from AAA Albuquerque and RHP Kenley Jansen from AA Chattanooga.  DFAed RHP Justin Miller.

Injuries:  Manny Ramirez was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained calf last Tuesday.  He is expected to be out a full month from now.  Activated Brad Ausmus from the 60-day DL.  Reed Johnson had a minor setback in his recovery.

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