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I pulled up the standings to begin writing this article, and I truly couldn't believe what I had seen. The only remaining solace I took in the 2012 season, that Colorado wasn't last place in the division. Regardless of how poorly we had to watch the Rockies perform, we could always say that we were having a better season than the Padres. That has changed, and no longer can I hide behind the fact that 4th place is closer to 1st place than is 5th place.
Thing is, the Padres are playing really good baseball the past 30 days - well, respectable at least, as they're 12-12 in that span. What's really interesting about the Padres over that span is that the relative success hasn't been driven by pitching. Their rotation has been good enough - nothing terribly special. Their bullpen has been very good. But the batting - relative to expectations - has been downright good, at a 99 wRC+. Their overall numbers have been somewhat squelched by a large amount of plate appearances going to struggling batters in the forms of Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Everth Cabrera, and Will Venable. What brings the numbers up, though, is a lot of good hitting from Chase Headley, Yonder Alonso, Logan Forsythe, Chris Denorfia, Yasmani Grandal, and this guy:
Alexi Amarista has been a part of a rare occurrence in baseball: a trade that works out for both teams. On May 3rd, the Angels traded Amarista and Donn Roach to the Padres in exchange for Ernesto Frieri, a very good relief pitcher. Since joining the Angels, Frieri has allowed 3 ER over 27 innings, good for a 1.03 ERA. His peripherals are downright Marmol-esque - 2010 Carlos Marmol, that is. Seriously, folks, keep Frieri on your shortlist of "pitchers to keep an eye on who are really good at baseball".
The flip side of that "worked out for both teams" coin is clearly Amarista. Sporting a .805 OPS while playing half of your games in PetCo Park is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a 2B. While his 124 wRC+ for the season might not be eye-popping enough, his 203 wRC+ over his past 22 games certainly is. That's double the league-average, kids. During that span, Amarista has batted .391/.408/.652 with 4 bombs and 18 RBI. While he has cooled somewhat over the past 2 weeks, he did go 3-for-5 against Houston on Wednesday.
Missing Guthrie in this 3-game series will give the Rockies a good chance of beating the Padres, but we'll need to see Christian Friedrich and Drew Pomeranz shake off their last rough starts. Jeff Francis can beat his 2008 Opening Day counterpart, I have faith in that.
Expected Pitching Matchups:
Friday, July 20, 2012 @ 8:05PM MT
Drew Pomeranz vs Jason Marquis
Saturday, July 21, 2012 @ 6:35PM MT
Jeff Francis vs Kip Wells
Sunday, July 22, 2012 @ 2:05PM MT
Christian Friedrich vs Ross Ohlendorf