Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal posted this article yesterday, suggesting a possible trade between the Cardinals and Rockies involving Troy Tulowitzki. The package Rosenthal theorizes could be coming to Denver from St. Louis includes pitchers Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal along with first baseman Allen Craig and a "lesser prospect."
While I like all three of the players Rosenthal mentions, that package isn't getting the Rockies to move Tulowitzki. Quite frankly, it is going to take another team doing something incredibly ill-advised for the Rockies to trade him this offseason.
The first reason for this is obvious, Tulo is an excellent player. Yes, he has been injury prone, but in every season in which he has played at least 120 games (that being every season of his career aside from 2008 and 2012), he has hit at least 24 home runs. Aside from the 2012 season in which he played in just 47 games, Tulo has been worth at least five WAR and posted an OPS+ of over 130 in every season since 2009.
As importantly, the Rockies are going to be extremely hesitant to trade Tulo, regardless of the return, in the same offseason that saw Todd Helton retire. Say what you will about Rockies management, but they are very marketing-conscious, and with Helton gone, someone has to be the face of the franchise. When the team gave him the mammoth contract extension after the 2010 season, it was clear that the Rockies intended that person to be Troy Tulowitzki.
Of course, if Tulo is traded, that face of the Rockies could be Carlos Gonzalez, an All-Star in his own right, but when you go to Coors Field on a Friday night in June, for instance, it's pretty easy to see that Tulo is the more popular of the two, especially among more casual fans.
Fans and the media can spend all offseason talking about a Tulo trade and what a fair offer for him would be, but know this, a fair offer for Tulo isn't getting you Tulo. It's going to take someone doing something completely irrational for the Rockies to make a deal.
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