Prospect Roundup: Is Ryan McMahon a better Rockies prospect than David Dahl?

A recent chat on Baseball America revealed a statement which involved the comparison of David Dahl vs Ryan McMahon. The inquiry started innocent enough, questioning the legitimacy of McMahon's numbers due to the park he's playing in. McCormick field is a bandbox which sits at an elevation of 2,000 feet and is ranked by Minorleaguecental.com as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minor leagues.

The answer from Baseball America's Vincent Lara-Cinisomo may be surprising to some Rockies fans, claiming that not only are McMahon's numbers legitimate, but that Ryan McMahon is a better prospect than David Dahl.

Trevor (Denver): What's your take on Ryan McMahon, a guy merely being helped out by his home park, or truly a guy to be excited about as Rox's fan?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Listen to one scout and he's a guy the Rockies should be very excited about. This evaluator said McMahon was the real deal, a better prospect than David Dahl and a guy who, even at his age, crushes mistakes. The future relies on Arenado. If Arenado stays, the Rockies can look to move McMahon as a big piece to acquire another big piece.

The bold statement raised my own eyebrows because the center fielder is more highly regarded in every major publication ranking. However, Dahl hasn't been the hottest of prospects recently and perhaps that view will change over the next release of rankings.

Drafted with the 10^th selection in the first round of the 2012 class, Dahl is considered a toolsy outfielder with gap power and good contact skills. McMahon was selected a little lower, in the second round of the 2013 draft, and has been praised for a smooth swing and the rare ability to hit from the left side while playing a solid third base. One writer even wondered if McMahon could become the type of player Ian Stewart never lived up to. Both players were picked out of high school and bat from the left side. So there's a lot of similarities in the two.

For a better idea of their differences, let's take a look at MLB.com's scouting grades of the two players.

	Hit	Power	Run	Arm	Field	Overall
David Dahl	60	60	60	60	60	55
Ryan McMahon	55	50	40	55	50	50

Dahl ranks higher across the board in these scouting reports, reflecting his higher ranking overall. Both players are considered Top 10 at their position, although Dahl (No. 6) is slightly higher than McMahon (No. 10) at a more crowded position. I'm expecting McMahon's power ranking to improve quite a bit after his power display in the South Atlantic League. Meanwhile, Dahl's power may drop slightly while his defensive measurements could get a positive bump based on glowing reports of his fielding.

Both players had breakout seasons in their debut at Rookie-level Grand Junction and were teamed together in Asheville to start the 2014 season. Here's a head-to-head comparison of the two players performances in both Grand Junction and at Asheville.

	Team	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
David Dahl	GJ Rockies	67	306	9	12	6.9 %	13.7 %	0.379	0.423	0.625	161
Ryan McMahon	GJ Rockies	59	251	11	4	11.2 %	23.5 %	0.321	0.402	0.583	147
David Dahl	Asheville	88	413	10	18	5.6 %	15.5 %	0.305	0.345	0.501	132
Ryan McMahon	Asheville	105	465	14	6	9.5 %	26.2 %	0.284	0.352	0.499	133

Dahl's time in Grand Junction was more highly regarded as indicated by his wRC+. He hit for a very high average, with a good power display and double-digit stolen base totals which earned him the league MVP award. McMahon also had a strong debut and a good follow-up campaign where he may have surpassed Dahl in the power area, due in a large part to his hot April, in which he hit nine home runs. In the four months since, the California native has cooled off totaling just seven in that span.

When it comes to weaknesses, the two players have separate issues they're working to improve on. McMahon is struggling with strikeouts and against a pretty extreme left-handed split, he's also racked up a lot of errors mostly from throwing off target.

All are areas in which Dahl excels in, his splits are almost exactly even and from what I can tell, he's receiving rave reviews for his outfield defense. The Alabama native is struggling with perception issues. After setting the world on fire in his debut, Dahl has fallen back to earth, producing good, but not great numbers. He's also fighting against the stigma which was attached to him since being punished for disciplinary issues back in 2013.

The good news is that both players are highly regarded fielding prospects who are several years younger than the league average they are playing against. Dahl was recently promoted to High-A Modesto, and after a slow start is now heating up with an average of .381 in his last five games.

As far as the comparison goes, I would have to give Dahl the nod, based on his defensive prowess and even splits. But there's no denying that Ryan McMahon has taken advantage of his opportunities and is further ahead of Dahl at the same point in their careers. But what do you guys think, who would you rank higher as a prospect?

Hottest Prospects

Pitchers

Name	Age	Tm	W	L	Sv	BF	IP	G	ERA	H	R	ER	K
Tyler Anderson	24.5	TUL	2	0	0.0	45	12.0	2.0	2.3	5.00	3.00	3.00	12
Alec Crawford	22.4	GJ	0	1	1.0	15	2.2	3.0	3.4	6.00	3.00	1.00	4
Kyle Freeland	21.1	2 Tms	2	0	0.0	36	10.0	2.0	0.0	5.00	0.00	0.00	11
Jon Gray	22.6	TUL	0	0	0.0	24	7.0	1.0	1.3	2.00	1.00	1.00	6
Luis Guzman	18.3	DSL ROCK	0	0	0.0	21	6.0	1.0	0.0	2.00	0.00	0.00	2
Sam Howard	21.3	GJ	1	0	0.0	37	9.0	2.0	0.0	7.00	0.00	0.00	11
Jorge Oviedo	17.7	DSL ROCK	0	0	0.0	42	11.0	2.0	1.6	6.00	2.00	2.00	11

Hitters

Name	Age	Tm	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shane Hoelscher	22.75	TRI	25	3	0	0	3	0.450	0.560	0.600	1.160
Kevin Padlo	17.92	GJ	24	1	1	2	2	0.286	0.375	0.714	1.089
Jordan Patterson	22.33	ASH	22	1	0	2	0	0.368	0.409	0.737	1.146
Correlle Prime	20.33	ASH	28	6	0	0	0	0.385	0.429	0.615	1.044
Wilfredo Rodriguez	20.42	ASH	12	0	0	0	0	0.545	0.545	0.545	1.090
Raimel Tapia	20.33	ASH	25	2	0	0	1	0.409	0.480	0.500	0.980

Stats from Minorleaguecentral.com based on their Hot Sheet for 7/31-8/7.

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