Rockies prospect rankings: No. 1 Jon Gray still has ace potential

Gray, a 23-year-old RHP who spent his age 22 season at Double-A Tulsa, was Colorado's first round draft pick in 2013 and probably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher the Rockies have ever drafted: a true number one starter. The third overall pick out of Oklahoma was the top player on my draft board that year, so I was thrilled that he slid to the Rockies, who also managed to sign him for an under-slot (but still record) bonus of $4.8 million.

Gray's professional debut in 2013 was nothing short of explosive: a 1.93 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 over 37 innings. That included a couple of starts in which Gray was instructed to work on new pitches. In Modesto, Gray had four starts and 24 innings pitched, during which he posted an 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9. That's preposterous.

In 2014, the Rockies once again were working with Gray to refine his arsenal, and as such he was slightly less explosive at. Normally, a 3.91 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 performance over 124 1/3 IP against opponents that were on average 2.5 years older would be excellent. Gray is no ordinary prospect though, and there are concerns that the Rockies are reining him in unnecessarily and trying to turn him into a pitch-to-contact, groundball pitcher.

That's a pitcher that he's just not. Gray at his best is a firebreathing, unhittable terror with an upper 90s fastball, filthy slider, and a developing changeup. Both the fastball and slider have been ranked by some as being the best versions of those pitches among any prospect in the minor leagues, and it would be a shame if Gray were being steered away from using them at their full potential. I don't think the Rockies will have such a leash on him when he does make it to the Show, but as fans we just want to see what he can do.

The combination of stuff, results, and prospect pedigree is what have most lists putting Gray among the very top echelon of minor league pitchers. Keith Law ranked him seventh overall in his midseason list, making Gray his top pitching prospect. Here were his comments:

The former Oklahoma starter hits 99 mph regularly as a starter and pitches with a plus fastball and plus slider ... (Gray) projects as [the Rockies'] eventual No. 1 starter.

Jason Parks ranked him 11th on the Baseball Prospectus midseason top 50. An excerpt of the comments:

This is a future frontline arm with bat-missing stuff, and once the training wheels come off at the highest level, this ranking will look too conservative.

Gray was also 10th overall on Jon Sickels's list and 8th on Baseball America's (top pitcher there too).

In Baseball Prospectus's 2015 top Rockies prospects list, Nick Faleris had Gray up top with a 70 overall future potential and a realistic 60 (No. 3 starter) floor:

Strengths: Workhorse build with physicality and aggressiveness on the bump; confident pounding the zone with upper-90s heater; triple-digit capable; fastball plays across quadrants; wipeout slider works in and out of zone; elite two-pitch combo with parallel plane and release; developmental focus on change piece, flashing hard fade and deception; frontline offerings so good even average changeup will miss bats and barrels; can flip script with change-of-pace curve.

Weaknesses: Changeup still lags relative fastball/slider; can struggle on both ends, implementing too firm or alternatively slowing arm and tipping; content pitching to contact and limited pitch count leave some question as to how dominant the stuff might be against top-tier bats; some stiffness in landing likely limits command ceiling.

Observing Gray in 2014 was akin to witnessing a bartender utilize a bottle of Lagavulin 16 to pour you a glass of Johnny Black -- the result was perfectly satisfying, but lacked the impact and finish you anticipated upon spying the distinctive glass. The body, control, and quality of weaponry is everything you'd expect in an elite power arm, but Colorado's conservative guidance this past summer left evaluators more reliant on projection than typical when grading out an advanced Double-A arm with loud present stuff.

Even with a focus on developing his third-best offering and pitching to contact, the former Sooner still found success, regularly inducing soft contact from Texas League bats thanks to his ability to generally live around the zone with two double-plus offerings, and it's tough to envision him failing to rack up strikeouts once permitted a slightly longer leash via pitch count and pitch selection. There is little doubt that Gray will be a valuable major-league asset, and anything shy of number three production, even in the challenging Coors environs, would come as a surprise. He should start 2015 in Triple-A, but may not face the requisite resistance to truly refine until he faces major-league lineups capable of handling his electric arsenal.