Baseball Prospectus has released its annual top prospects list, and just like Keith Law did two weeks ago, has placed six Rockies prospects among the top 100.
Topping the list for the Rockies is Jon Gray at No. 13 overall, which is as high as I have seen him and given his mixed results in Double-A tells you how much BPro really likes him.
David Dahl has largely erased the bad taste 2013 left in many people's mouths. His rise from No. 100 to No. 24 (12th best position player) on the list, as well as solid reports throughout the season, means Dahl is on track to be the star the Rockies thought he could be when they took him 10th overall in the 2012 draft.
Known for their love of loud tools, BPro ranked Raimel Tapia at No. 45, which is crazy-high praise for a guy whom only BPro placed inside the top 100 last year. Their reason for doing so becomes clearer when you read this July write up from Ryan Parker; anyone who loves tools is certainly going to like someone they slapped with two 70 grades (hit, run).
Injury probably more than any other single factor had Eddie Butler falling from No. 26 on last year's list all the way down to No. 64 for 2015. Butler still has premium velocity and three pitches that flash brilliance, but until he can do it consistently, there are many who see him as a future bullpen guy with top-tier upside. Most of us here at the Row would rather see Butler be a good No. 3 than an excellent reliever, but baseball -- like life -- all too often doesn't care about what you want.
The third pitcher, and third former top pick, on this list is Thomas Jefferson High School's own Kyle Freeland, who made the list on the back of premium velocity and a three-pitch mix that is right on track to remove the "might be a reliever" thoughts from draft day last year. If health continues not to be an issue, Freeland could make that same metoric jump that Dahl made. And, if his change-up continues to develop, don't be surprised if he is a top 25 overall prospect next year.
Finishing the Rockies' contribution on this list is third baseman Ryan McMahon who, right in line with BPro's love of tools, has a legit power bat that could see him putting up some eye-popping numbers in the California League this summer. A three-true-outcomes hitter, his concerning strikeout rate has to be balanced against defense that is capable of sticking at the hot corner, a good walk rate, and being at a well below league-average age at each of his stops in professional baseball.
The Baseball Prospectus list is another good example of how two different smart groups of people can look at a particular player and project two radically different outcomes. MLB.com didn't place Tapia or McMahon in its top 100 but Law had McMahon at No. 50, while BPro had Tapia even higher. That kind of disagreement makes a lot more sense when you realize there is something like 6,000 minor leaguer players, and while our good friend Sage Farron knows all their names, only a fraction of a fraction will make their mark in MLB.