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Looking to the past to predict Kyle Kendrick's future with the Rockies

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The newest addition to the Rockies rotation could work out very well...or very poorly.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Veteran right-hander Kyle Kendrick became the latest in a long line of experienced pitchers to come via trade or free agency and attempt to ply their trade at Coors Field when he signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Rockies earlier this week.

Some of those that came to Colorado to pitch succeeded and others failed, but here is a look at six guys Kendrick could become when he dons the purple pinstripes in 2015:

The Jason Marquis

Marquis came to the Rockies in 2009 via a trade with the Cubs prior to the 2009 season. Marquis, who like Kendrick was a 30-year-old righty in 2009 who had been up and down over his career, excelled in Colorado. He made 33 starts in his lone season as a Rockie, pitching 216 innings.

That alone would be plenty to get from Kendrick, but Marquis also pitched well for the Rockies, winning 15 games and going to the All-Star Game. He had a 4.04 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 80 walks and 115 strikeouts, good for an ERA- of 87 and 3.5 rWAR as the Rockies made the playoffs.

The Rodrigo Lopez

If I was a betting man, this is what I'd put my money on Kendrick being. Lopez arrived from Baltimore in 2007, like Marquis, via trade. Lopez made just 14 starts in his only Rockies season, pitching 79 1/3 innings with a 4.42 ERA before going down with injury in late July and paving the way for young guys such as Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales to make their Rockies debuts.

That is where I see a similarity with Kendrick; I could see him holding down the fort for the first half of the season or so before making way via injury or trade for a Jon Gray or Eddie Butler. This section could also have just as easily been called "The Jason Hirsh."

The Bill Swift

The pioneer of veteran arms taking on Coors Field, Swift signed a three-year free agent contract with the Rockies prior to the 1995 season. Fresh off three seasons with the Giants that saw him win a total of 39 games and post a 2.70 ERA in 506 2/3 innings, Swift pitched just 189 1/3 innings over 35 starts in his three seasons with the Rockies.

Despite the struggles with injuries, Swift was actually a decent pitcher, posting a 5.47 ERA in pre-humidor Coors Field, good for an ERA- of 106 and 3.6 rWAR over his three seasons with the Rockies. His best season with Colorado was his first in 1995, when he had a 4.94 ERA in 19 starts.

The Josh Fogg

Fogg had two stints with the Rockies, but for the sake of comparing him we'll focus on the 2006-2007 stretch that saw him make 60 starts for the team rather than his return in 2009 when he was almost exclusively a reliever. Fogg was third on the Rockies in innings pitched over those two seasons with 337 2/3, posting a 21-18 record and 5.22 ERA with a similar K% and BB% to what Kendrick has posted in his career with the Phillies.

Fogg is best known to Rockies fans for starting Game 163 against the Padres in 2007, but should be lauded for his ability to eat innings as well. He was one of just three pitchers, along with Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis, to throw more than 220 innings for the Rockies between 2006 and 2007, doing so with a respectable ERA- of 108 and accumulating 1.1 rWAR.

The Mike Hampton

Sure, Hampton signed for a lot more years and money than Kendrick, but they do share a certain home run-prone tendency that could doom Kendrick in the thin air as it did Hampton. Hampton gave up 55 home runs in 381 2/3 innings in his two seasons as a Rockie, exactly the rate at which Steamer projects Kendrick to cough up gopher balls in 2015.

Hampton started well with the Rockies, earning a trip to the All-Star Game in 2001, but fell apart in the second half of the season and was even worse in 2002. He eventually wound up with a 5.75 ERA and 114 ERA- in his two seasons with Colorado, good for -1.7 rWAR.

The Jeremy Guthrie

This is obviously a worst-case scenario, but it merits a mention given the recency. Guthrie came to the Rockies in a trade with Baltimore in 2012 and it turns out that he and Coors Field were like oil and water, they just didn't mix. He posted a 9.50 ERA in 41 2/3 innings at Coors Field as a Rockies pitcher, giving up a whopping 14 home runs, more than one every three innings.

That abysmal home performance led to Guthrie posting a 6.35 ERA and 137 ERA- in his half season in Colorado before being shipped to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez. I can't see Kendrick ending up like Guthrie, but if he does, the alternatives to replace him midseason sure do look to be a lot better in 2015 than they were in 2012.