Just like we did on Saturday morning, we thought it'd be interesting to give you our perspective on the biggest recent piece of Rockies news, but this time focused more upon German Marquez, the minor league pitcher the Rockies acquired, and Kevin Padlo, the minor league third baseman the club relinquished to the Tampa Bay Rays.
So, enjoy some debate from myself, Nick Stephens, Ryan Freemyer, Bobby DeMuro, Ryan Schoppe, Charlie Drysdale, Thomas Wilson, and Drew Creasman — and please, join us in the comment section to continue the discussion!
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Nick: Is this news? Marquez is ranked 17th on the Rockies' top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. He's a little higher than I thought he'd be, to be honest.
Ryan F.: 17? Wow. Looks like a lot of his scouting grades went up too. I know when we were looking yesterday MLB Pipeline had him at 45 [future value], now he's at 50. I forget what the other ratings were, but I think curveball and changeup both went up too.
Nick: Where do you guys put Marquez on your PuRPs?
Bobby: I'd put him somewhere around 20. He might take Padlo's 22! Haha.
Ryan S.: I said yesterday about 17-20. I think he's worth more than Padlo.
Nick: I haven't decided but yeah between 20-25 feels right. Probably 20-22, actually.
Ryan S.: I really think he's getting a lot of negative blowback because: (a) he wasn't one of the name we really wanted, and (b) we didn't like the other part of the trade, and that's affecting our opinion of him now too. Padlo didn't make the Rays top 30 after they removed Marquez
Ryan F.: They don't seem very high on him. He wasn't in the Rockies' top 30, either.
Ryan S.: Yeah, Purple Row was by far the highest on him.
Nick: "He's so confident in it now that he projects as a strong workhorse number three starter." I would be content with that.
Ryan F.: Where's that Nick?
Nick: Bobby's Marquez article that he just posted. That's a quote from his interview with a DRaysBay writer. That curveball in that first video is nice looking.
Ryan S.: Yeah, at this point we got back the better prospect by a large margin.
Charlie: I would assume Padlo would have followed the Rosell Herrera model and returned to Asheville. His numbers in Boise were much better than Herrera's number in TC, though. Add in that he is still a teenager, and likely Asheville would have been the location.
Ryan S.: S where does he play there though?
Charlie: Likely Bowling Green
Ryan S.: Asheville's left side of the infield was going to be really crowded.
Charlie: The average age of hitters in Bowling Green last year was 20.9 and Padlo turns 20 next summer. So that fits the age
Ryan S.: Sorry Charlie, I meant if he did stay with the Rockies and go to Asheville where is his playing time?
Charlie: Honestly I was more impressed with Tyler Nevin than Padlo last year after seeing both in person.
Ryan S.: Nevin plays third, Brendan Rodgers plays SS, and Herrera "backs up" both so they all get playing time?
Charlie: 3B for Padlo, but he would have been splitting time or someone, possibly Nevin would have lost out and probably gone to Boise.
Nick: I'm assuming that was the end of our offseason. It was a weird one, that's for sure.
Ryan S.: I wouldn't assume anything with Bridich at this point. Gallardo incoming!
Nick: He basically said yesterday they weren't making any moves in the SP department But yeah, I guess that doesn't mean much.
Ryan S.: Haha. Exactly. 'We are happy with 4 OF...' and Dickerson's gone for a relief pitcher. 'We are not trading Tulo...' and 72 hours later...
Thomas: Title of highest on Padlo goes to Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs. He tweeted NEIFICO last night that he had Padlo as the 8th best hitting prospect in MLB.
Ryan S.: That's just crazy talk.
Thomas: We have him like 8th-10thbest hitter on the farm.
Ryan S.: Yeah, most of the usual scouting sources don't have him in our top 10 hitting.
Thomas: Which means unless math is a liar we have the 10 best hitting prospects in baseball.
Ryan S.: Haha. Sounds about as reliable of math as the math they used to declare Padlo the 8th best hitter.
Drew: Ryan, Bridich essentially made my "quantity" argument on the pitching side at Fan Fest.
Ryan S.: Is that where he said something about flooding the system with impact arms?
Drew: Yeah. Also, I think you guys are really undervaluing Kevin Padlo. Can't say that for sure for a guy his age and I know Charlie just said the opposite, but I saw WAY more in him that I did Nevin.
Ryan S.: Pretty much every major prospect site has Nevin worth way more than Padlo, I know it's easy to like our guys, but Padlo is not that big of a prospect piece.
Drew: I mean, I would be equally bias in favor of both of them so that is a wash. I think Padlo is a 5-tool third baseman.
Ryan S.: We're going from a 40 FV hitting prospect to a 50 FV pitching prospect and that's a big jump in value. Obviously with prospects things can get all screwed up, but strictly on value that's a massive jump.
Drew: If Marquez is legitimately in that Tinoco/Castellani area then I really don't hate this trade. But his numbers against weaker competition certainly don't suggest that yet.
Ryan S.: FSL is a pitcher's league but he was 3 years younger and that's a bigger factor. Age relative to competition has the highest correlation to future success.
Drew: For sure. And I reallllllly like the low BB rate. I guess I just need an updated consensus.
Ryan S.: I like Padlo, as well, but I really think that value wise it's not really close it's just one of these guys we knew and another we didn't and also wasn't one of the names we really wanted. Kind of like Jeff Hoffman at first compared to Daniel Norris. At first we all wanted Norris and hated Hoffman and then you look a little deeper and realize that Hoffman probably is the better fit for the Rockies.
Thomas: Marquez was 18 on John Sickels' list before 2015 as well
Ryan S.: Not to mention that Padlo was going to be in a struggle for playing time, and we always need more pitching. I don't think they traded Padlo because of that, but I do think it made him easier to give up.
Drew: I'm just laying my bet right now that Padlo will be a player in this league. Whether or not he was worth inclusion in this trade will depend on this new guy, but my affinity toward Padlo has only to do with the skills he exhibits. Reminds me a lot of when people were telling me that I overvalued Tapia and Patterson early on.
Nick: I do like that Marquez BB/9 has dropped at every level.
Drew: That's my big hope right there Nick. It's also nice that he is closer to the big leagues ... but philosophically that also suggests trying to win now, which is strange and doesn't make sense considering last year's draft.
Ryan S.: Padlo is going to be interesting to watch to see if he can succeed as full-season ball. He's young enough that having to try that again is OK, but it is a red flag.
Thomas: I wouldn't say you overvalued him Drew, and the fact that the Rays targeted him says they agree, but I do think there is a pretty strong argument that given the wealth of 3B talent means that Marquez is better fit.
Drew: That's the other thing. I still like Nevin and clearly 3B is a position of strength. And, yes, there is no thing as too much pitching.